November 29, 2013

NIFTY daily, weekly and monthly charts

On EOD charts, nifty closes near upper end of trading range. Closing near weekly high is usually considered to be a bullish sign.

November 28, 2013

Markets gapup but fail to cross day's highs

Led by global clues, markets had a strong gapup opening but failed to cross the high formed in first 5 minutes. Closing was near open though markets were up almost 1%.

November 27, 2013

Markets rangebound. Support 6000.

Markets continue trading in a range with no clear bias. Trading range is 5970-6220 going by recent swing highs and lows.

$GOLD likely to bottom out?

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for $GOLD... it is nearing support levels. RSI is also near oversold/ support regions.

November 26, 2013

Markets continue to trade rangebound

On EOD charts, nothing has changed. NIFTY traded within yesterday's bar forming an inside bar. The broader range remains at 5970-6220; nothing much may happen within this range though day traders might be able to make some trade if charts favour.

If you are long, your SL is 5970 spot... if you are short, your SL will be 6220 spot.


November 25, 2013

NIFTY rangebound between 5970 and 6240-6300

NIFTY closed 2% in the positive. Trading range is 5970-6300. It was earlier remarked that holding 5970 would be positive and markets gave a rally accordingly.

November 23, 2013

Defensive stocks explained


A defensive stock or a sector is one which tends to remain stable under difficult economic conditions. Defensive stocks include pharmaceuticals, food, tobacco, oil, alcohol, and utilities (gas, water, electricity). These stocks hold up in hard times because demand does not decrease as dramatically as it may in other sectors. 


November 22, 2013

NIFTY looks good if it can hold 5970 next week

While trend is down we are seeing signs of buying coming in at lower levels. The regions of 5950-6000 and specially 20000 on sensex will give good support. Incidentally this region also corresponds with recent swing low so it is somewhat like a double bottom support.

November 21, 2013

NIFTY trend down but nearing support

Markets continue correction... next support is at 5970 or 20000 on the sensex... the latter is likely to be psychologically more important at this point.


Commodities update

Copper trend down... bullish above 460

November 20, 2013

Markets form a lower swing high

Admittedly, this is a minor one and I am probably jumping the gun as I call this. But nevertheless it now adds far more clarity to the market patterns than before. Another 1-2 days of decline will confirm this.

November 19, 2013

Is the rally over?

Within this downtrend, nifty trend has reversed to upside. As of now, I don't know if this will be a new rally or not.

November 18, 2013

Corrective or new rally?

Post the morning star pattern, nifty gains another 2%...

Now the overall trend is mixed. The reason is the correction from 6300 to 6000 was bigger/ larger than the previous rally... this act itself signifies a trend change.

November 14, 2013

Morning star pattern formed?

After 7 days of consecutive declines, markets closed in the positive. We had a strong gapup opening practically above previous day's highs but a closing near today's low.

Had the closing been near day's highs we could have had a superb morning star pattern... this is a reversal pattern and would have been reliable in the current context except for the closing near open.


November 13, 2013

Market commentary

We have now had 7 days of consecutive declines... this tells us about the nature of this correction. We never had 7 days of continuous rally though!

Last 2-3 days, option writers have switched to writing calls. Highest open interest is now at 6300 call. This means writers do not expect level to be crossed this expiry.

November 12, 2013

Market commentary

NIFTY closes at new 20 day low and also gives a sell on 20 day kplswing... it closes below 6100 and 6030 swing low. Also, this is the 6th day of continuous decline.

Now by swing theory, recent rally starting 6080 is completely negated... this means trend has reversed. On the other hand, markets are near 6000 where we have good evidence of substantial put writing (there was an increase in open interest today).

November 11, 2013

Market commentary

NIFTY closed below last swing low confirming downtrend. However, considering the fact that we have another swing low nearby and the strong put writing at 6000, I will wait for a close below 6000 for confirmation of start of downtrend.

November 8, 2013

Weekend commentary

On daily charts, nifty closed in the red for 4th consecutive day. It is however still holding above the swing low of 6080. Close below this will mean trend reversal.

November 7, 2013

Market commentary

Markets closed in the red today... after 2 days of correction, this is the first day where we are seeing evidence of buying followed by selling at higher levels. This is reflected in the EOD candlestick chart (upper tail) and also intraday charts.

Formation of an upper tail after a mild correction is usually bullish.

Option writing points to support at 6000 and resistance at 6400.

November 6, 2013

Market commentary

Today markets closed in the red ... this is the second negative closing after 4 UP days. Advance decline was positive which is  a good sign.

Broader trend is up above 6080 spot... this is the recent swing low which also happens to be very close to previous swing low at 6000.

November 5, 2013

Market commentary

Today markets closed 1% in the red ... this is the first negative closing after 4 UP days. Advance decline was positive which is  a good sign.

Broader trend is up above 6080 spot... this is the recent swing low which also happens to be very close to previous swing low at 6000.

November 1, 2013

Market commentary

NIFTY trend up with swing reversal level at 6080. Substantial put writing support exists at 6000.

As of now, market is still a buy in dips market. Breakouts will persist in stocks by rotation.. maybe difficult to play nifty.