May 25, 2014

Question: how can a Investor book max profit

If there is no target and no timeframe then how can an investor book max profit ?

I strongly believe there should be some target and timeframe. i.e. Buy xxx @ 50 exit @75/85. 

Or else what is happened I bought xxx@50 and didn't book profit as there is no target, and after a week/months it hit SL. 

What do you suggest this scenario.

Sahu
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Answer


How would you define max profit?

If you buy a stock at 100 with target 120... is this enough? and then the stock goes from 100 to 300. Then what? Then who is smart? Someone who exits at 120 or 300?

Let the market tell you when to exit.

If I give a target, the probability of the target being hit is 50%. And if I add a timeframe, the probability of being right drops down to 25%. This means you will make money in 25% of the trades and consistently lose money in 75% of the trades. 

This is where a trailing stoploss comes in. You buy a stock at 100 and SL 95. If the SL is hit, you exit otherwise the stock starts moving up. After some time it is 120 and then SL becomes 110. And so on. Finally it reaches 200 and after few days, your SL which has now increased to 180 gets triggered. So you have made a good profit.

Now this move from 100 to 200 can happen in one month or 1 year. There is no way of knowing that.

If you see the open positions file, some stocks have given fantastic returns and some below average. At the time of taking the trade, I had no idea which trade would succeed. All I knew was that the stock gave a breakout and I should trade long. But I have no way of knowing if a stock which is showing 50% return will give 600% in 2 years without SL getting hit.

The only thing certain in a market is stoploss. Everything else is uncertain.... the profit, the timeframe... it is a waste of time trying to predict the target or timeframe. 

No one has ever ever made money consistently by following targets... it is a simple fact of the market but one which will takes years to understand.

AUROPHARMA weekly chart.... from 200 to 600 and trend is still up (my last trade in this is from 550 levels).



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