December 11, 2014

Markets close below 8300

My trend reversal level for nifty was 8300 spot and today markets closed below this level. Now I have to assume trend is down till nifty closes above 8630 spot.

I expect good support at 8160 spot levels.

Note that hourly charts gave a sell on close below 8500 and this is the level a futures trader should be looking at.

A word about 8300... there is nothing magical or sacrosanct about this level. Normally I take recent swing low as reversal level. In this case, the swing low was at 7700 and nothing above that till 8630. Since we need some SL I settled on 8300 as we had a cluster of supports here. So this 8300 is more of a support area and not a swing low level. Also, it does not matter in this case if the support is at 8280 or 8310.

If the trend has to turn down, whatever level you plot (eg. 8200 or 8400) has to eventually break... it may happen few days earlier or later.

EOD charts: ... note support at 8160 levels.


Intraday charts:

First box was short trade (selloff even though first bar was bullish)... book profit above second box (trailing SL). Long position was in third box  (breakout above this and previous swing high)... trailing SL here was short horizontal line.

One could have also gone long above 2nd box but this is known in hindsight.

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