November 28, 2014

Weekend update

Markets give a fantastic weekly close ... trend remains up and will reverse on close below 8300.

Note that markets have fully retraced the the fall of 25th NOV. I said in a previous post that "inability to ... close above 8535 can lead to start of a bigger correction. First confirmation will be break of 8400 spot". So markets have closed above 8535 and confirms trend is still up.

Option writing (DEC) points to mixed clues. Support at 8500 and resistance at 8600-8700 levels... Difficult to arrive at a clear understanding where option writers see support and resistance this series.

November 27, 2014

Market outlook - limited upside in DEC?

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 8300.

Note that markets have closed in the positive for 2 consecutive days but have not retraced the fall of 25th NOV. Inability to do or close above 8535 can lead to start of a bigger correction. First confirmation will be break of 8400 spot.

Option writing (DEC) points to resistance at 8500 levels... there is no clear indication of where put writing support is available. All this might mean limited upsides with possibility of a good correction.


November 26, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 8300.

Today there was no further selling and low formed in yesterday's 20-30 min provided good support.

Crossover above day's high was bullish and advance decline was positive throughout the day.

Option writing points to resistance at 8500 (DEC series).

November 25, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 8300.

Today was first day of decline.. within an uptrend a correction of 2-3 days is allowable.

Recall that past few days advance decline was not supporting rallies... so today's fall is nothing surprising.

November 24, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 8300.

Advance decline is not supporting rallies... this is something happening from past few days even as nifty is making new highs, stocks are breaking supports.


November 21, 2014

Weekend update

Markets close at new high confirming that trend is still up with support at 8300.

On a different note, advance declines is not supporting higher moves past few days... we are seeing a lot of selling in stocks even as markets continue to move up. This creates the justifiable feeling that while markets are going up, my stocks are not going up.

In fact there are hardly any good buy calls in past 2-3 days.

BANK NIFTY now @ 18000. Remember this post?

BANK NIFTY now @ 18000. Remember this post made on 17th May 2014?

Hold positions with a trailing SL. Let markets tell you when to exit.


November 20, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 8300. For a trend reversal, we need faster retracement of last rally.

Swing low support is at 7700. Resistance is expected around 8450-8500.

Sustaining above 8500 will have bullish implications with rally possible to 8900.

Option writing points to support at 8300 and resistance at 8500.

Refer charts for more commentary

November 19, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 8300. Swing low support is at 7700.

Resistance is expected around 8450-8500.

Sustaining above this will have bullish implications with rally possible to 8900.

Option writing points to support at 8300 and resistance at 8500.

November 18, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 8300. Swing low support is at 7700.

Resistance is expected around 8450-8500.  Sustaining above this will have bullish implications with rally possible to 8900.


Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 8300. Deep support exists at 7700.

Recall that past 2 weeks markets were rangebound but found continued support at 8300 and not once did markets close below this level.

Option writing points to support at 8300 and resistance at 8500.

November 16, 2014

MCX CRUDE technicals

10 year monthly charts - crude broke support at 5500. Trend is down with support at 4500 and will reverse to buy on close above 6500.


MCX SILVER technicals

10 years monthly chart - trend is down with strong resistance at 50000 levels


November 15, 2014

GOLD MCX technicals (INR)

10 year monthly chart - Gold is testing support at 25000.. pullback possible from here.



GOLD technicals in USD

Long term trend of GOLD is down but there is possibility of a short term bottom being formed.

November 14, 2014

Weekend update

On daily charts, trend is up with support at 8300 spot.

On weekly charts, trend is up with support at 7700 spot.

Option writing points to support at 8300 and resistance at 8500.

November 13, 2014

High Profit Trades found with Candlestick Breakout Patterns

Market outlook

Past few days action points to selling at higher levels and unwillingness of bulls to add more positions. This is also evidenced by multiple dojis.

At a broader level, trend is up and will reverse on close below 7700. Any correction from here will likely form a higher swing low (ideally around 7800 or above).

Immediate support 8290 spot... break below this lead to start of correction.

Option writing points to resistance at 8500 (NOV series).

November 12, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 7700.

Any correction from here will likely form a higher swing low (ideally around 7800 or above).

Immediate support 8290 spot... break below this lead to start of correction.

Option writing points to support at 8000 (NOV series).

November 11, 2014

CNX IT technicals

Break of recent swing low at 11000 led to trend reversal.

Now buy above level is 11600.

Any short trade in futures would have been stopped out when the index crossed 11000 in last week of OCT.

Here is the chart:


Bank NIFTY technicals

Trend is up with support at 16000.

Immediate support is at 17200 ... close below this can lead to start of correction.

It is expected that this correction will lead to formation of a higher swing low (currently it is at 15000).


Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 7700.

Any correction from here will likely form a higher swing low (ideally around 7800 or above).

Immediate support 8290 spot... break below this lead to start of correction.

Option writing points to support at 8000 (NOV series).

November 10, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 7700.

Any correction from here will likely form a higher swing low (ideally around 7800 or above).

Option writing points to support at 8000 (NOV series).

Question on stock selection

Hi sir,

I saw in your post that u have invested in GATI,GDL,Snowman Logistics.May I know how to invest in these kind of stocks which gives an unbelievable return.I have a basic knowledge of reading balance sheet,P&L acct and some basic technical analysis like Elliot wave..After knowing this,I think I can invest in other stocks rather than investing in Nifty 50?I am just 25 years old.Guide me to move to the next level.

Regards,
Gowtham

November 7, 2014

Weekend update

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 7700.

Any correction from here will likely form a higher swing low (ideally around 7800 or above).

Option writing points to support at 8000 (NOV series).

November 5, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 7700.

Any correction from here will likely form a higher swing low (ideally around 7800 or above).

Option writing points to support at 8000 (NOV series).




RANBAXY poised for multi year breakout

RANBAXY poised for multi year breakout... this will be a 10 year breakout.

Breakout level is roughly 650-700 levels. Your stoploss 550-580.


November 4, 2014

Question on stock selection

Question: 

If we run a scan on CNX 500 stocks for finding out stocks which are trading at 20 day high, we get a long list. How to choose which stocks to invest in??

Thanks, Varun Danturthy

November 3, 2014

Candlesticks explained

Candlesticks is a Japanese trading technique invented in the 18th century by rice traders.

Today this technique is called candlestick charting and is widely used when drawing stock charts.





Market outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 7700.

Any correction from here will likely form a higher swing low (ideally around 7800 or above).

Option writing points to support at 8000 (NOV series).

November 1, 2014

The majority always loses

If a betting game among a certain number of participants is played long enough, eventually one player will have all the money. If there is any skill involved, it will accelerate the process of concentrating all the stakes in a few hands.

Something like this happens in the stock market.

There is a persistent overall tendency for equity to flow from the many to the few.

In the long run, the majority loses.

The implication for the trader is that to win you have to act like the minority. If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you will gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.