February 26, 2015

Market outlook

Markets break 2 days low and close below 8700.

Nifty is now near a minor trendline so let us see if this support holds tomorrow.

The bigger picture hints at 2 possibilities:
- nifty forms a lower swing high (current swing high is 9000) leading to break of 8470 / new lows or
- nifty forms a higher swing low (current swing low is 8470) leading to break above 9000/ new highs.

Option writing points to resistance at 9000 and support at 8500 (MAR series). Highest open interest is at 9000 call so this will mean limited upsides.

The final picture will be clear tomorrow.

EOD charts:

Intraday charts:

Today was a difficult day (but not surprising considering it was expiry). While the entry trade was clear (short, green arrow), there could have been problems in managing the SL.

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