March 31, 2015

NIFTY monthly charts

- markets form bearish engulfing bar
- this is the second time this is happening in 6 months
- this is causing negative divergence on RSI
- above means chances of trend reversal on monthly charts


NIFTY futures intraday charts

- nifty rangebound between 8550 and 8585F through out the day
- any intraday trade would be possible only on 1 min charts
- ignore first breakout above 8585F around 12.30 (circle)
- second breakout above 8585F was valid buy signal
- markets showing difficultly above 8585F levels
- note lack of follow thru buying for 20-30 min after breakout
- short trade possible above 8585 F (4 candlesticks forming upper tails - shown in box).
- breakout fails / short trade gets initiated.
- I did not trade today



Market outlook

- markets form 2nd day of higher high higher low
- within a downtrend, 2-3 days of higher high higher low is normal
- advance decline mildly positive
- selloff at higher levels
- sustaining above 8550 spot / 8600 F bullish for 1-2 days more



Sensex resistance

Sensex resistance 28000-28750


March 30, 2015

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- first buy signal failed/ got stopped out
- for above trade, SL at day's low never got hit
- later buy signals gave good profits
- one could have also considered breakout above day's high (8495 F)
- SL below low of breakout bar; this did not get hit


This is chart for 8500 call option


BANK NIFTY techicals

- index forms higher high higher low on daily charts
- relief rally possible to max 19340 levels
- broader trend is down


Market outlook

- markets bounce off lower trendline and oversold levels
- rally to 8600-8700 possible
- this will be a technical pullback or relief rally
- markets may eventually form a lower swing high and break recent supports
- broader trend is down
- option writing support 8400 resistance 8600



March 29, 2015

NIFTY nearing RSI support

Here 14 day RSI is approx 30... on 5 day RSI, Nifty is already oversold (10).

Ignore the BB indicator.


Interesting charts

Decide your strategy based on support and resistance lines or breakouts shown

ABIRLANUVO


March 28, 2015

JINDALSTEEL technicals

While nifty moved from 7400 in June 2013 to 9000 this year, this stock crashed from 340 levels to 160 levels in the same period... so much for underperformance.

Now it seems to have bottomed out and I was long and got stopped out but the charts are still looking good.

Support and resistance levels are plotted on charts.



NIFTY expanding triangle weekly charts

We have an expanding triangle on nifty weekly charts. This is a bearish pattern and pattern implication calls for a correction to start of the triangle i.e. 7400.

Time frame - less than 1 year.

The bigger picture calls for the start of a multi year super bull run after this period.

Disclaimer: information in this site is for entertainment only and not for any other purpose.


March 27, 2015

Market outlook

- overall trend is down though poised for a technical pullback
- any rally may at point be limited to 8600-8700
- next supports around 8000-8200
- option writing support at 8200 (minor) and resistance 9000 (major)



NIFTY futures intraday charts

- ignore the gap as it is because of difference in 2 series
- first signal was short as markets broke support formed in first box
- depending on your strategy it would have been stopped unless SL was above resistance of first box
- second short trade worked and was profitable
- above was the only trade I took
- subsequent long and short trade was not considered because it was close to day's high/ low levels


This is the buy side chart for 8300 put....


March 26, 2015

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 26-MAR-2015 
  • These charts are for educational purposes only.
  • This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
  • Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
  • Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in
ALLAHABAD BANK
ALLAHABAD BANK chart

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- break below first box was first sell signal
- given the ambiguity after this signal, I would have preferred to short after the first arrow
- the reason is the hammer did not give any follow thru buying and bears took over
- second sell signal was on break below second box.
- I did not trade today.




Market outlook

- markets break and close below 8500
- markets also close below previous significant swing low of 8470 spot
- close below 8470 spot tomorrow will lead to more weakness next week
- markets also close below lower trendline of expanding triangle
- advance decline negative
- VIX increases by 15%
- APRIL series option writing support expected at 8200


Will short covering start now

Will short covering start now? market internals do not look too good as of now.

Resistance 8460 F (MAR series)


Open positions

We are down from 20 stocks few weeks ago to barely 4... still in positive with trailing SLs


YTD top gainers and losers

FILTER = 50 day average volume > Rs.20 crores

Top gainers



Top losers


March 25, 2015

US S&P 500 index timepass

In the first week of Dec 2014, the S&P500 was around 2075.

Today it is around 2090... so after 4 months, the index has achieved nothing and has done only timepass.


CNX Small Cap index

- overall trend is down
- nearing a good support area at 5400


CNX IT technicals

- trend is down and will reverse on close above 12500
- next supports are 12000-11600


BANK NIFTY technicals

- last 2 months, we are seeing selling off at higher levels
- all good news is being sold into
- we have good support at 18200
- overall trend is down so if 18200 breaks, expect more downsides
- next support is 17500
- trade with trailing stoploss


NIFTY futures intraday charts

- first box set the initial range break below which was sell signal
- I did not trade short considering presence of strong supports nearby
- traded long at first arrow.. this was actually a wrong trade as there was no indication to go long
- covered long at a minor loss in next 4-5 bars
- horizontal lines denote trailing SL for short trade.
- trailing SL hit for short trade giving no profit no loss
- did not consider long trade at second arrow as close of breakout bar was not near high
- even if you had considered a long trade here, you would have been stopped immediately


Market outlook

- markets close marginally in the red
- small trading range
- advance decline negative
- key support at 8500 still holding
- holding above 8630 spot will be bullish tomorrow.


March 24, 2015

LUPIN closes at new high

Stock is still bullish...

We are long from 1620 levels... current SL 1830


Magnified close AFL

Many people have asked how to display the current price in large font as in the following chart.




Code is pretty simple - use low level graphics functions. The AFL is:

_SECTION_BEGIN("Magnified close");
//Copyright: Kamalesh Langote http://www.vfmdirect.com Email: kpl@vfmdirect.com
Param_Color=ParamColor( "Color", colorCycle );
toggle_mclose = ParamToggle("Magnified Close","Show|Hide",1);
if( toggle_mclose )  {
x = Status( "pxchartwidth");
y = Status( "pxchartheight" ) ;
GfxSetOverlayMode(1);
GfxSelectFont( "arial",0.1*y,800);
GfxSetTextColor(Param_color);
GfxTextOut(""+WriteVal(C,1.2)+"",0.8*x,0.05*y);
} else {}
_SECTION_END();


Posting my intraday trades to clear certain impressions

This is a one time post to clear certain impressions.

People sometimes get the feeling that it is easy to post trades after market hours and thus appear intelligent. What about real trades?

My today's trades...
- total long 9000 options of 8600 call ... covered intraday (buying from Rs.25-)
- total long 2000 options of 8700 call ... covered intraday (buying from Rs.5-)
- total long 2000 options of 8700 call ... positional / still open.

The last trade was badly managed.. had this been exited immediately, overall profits would have been 30K more.

And this is the screen shot of the net positions. This does NOT indicate the time or the order of the trade. It shows only the total quantity.

I normally trade 1000-2000 shares per order... this depends on option premium, volatility, where I am entering the trade etc. Also, I add more positions only if the previous candlestick is in profit. This automatically caps the risk.

Trading logic is explained in this post.


NOTE: I do not offer any intraday/ F&O services.

NIFTY intraday futures chart

- understand the broader picture which is that markets are very close to a good support
- first 2 bars were strongly bullish in light of gap down opening and fast up move.
- I went long on breakout above first box... booked profit in second box
- My bias was bullish throughout the day so did not short the market
- Went long again at second arrow and third arrow... basically added more positions
- Exited all long when markets came below third box
- Did not trade short and decided to call it a day
- Decided to trade long again as risk was minimal at 4th arrow
- Added long again near day's highs
- Exited 70-80% positions immediately as there was no follow thru buying.
- Retained 20% long positions for next day,
- In hindsight, I should have exited ALL long positions and bought again near market close.




Market outlook

- markets close to bottoming out.
- confirmation will be trading above today's high i.e. 8830 spot.
- rally possible to 8800 where strong resistance is expected
- immediate support 8500 spot.
- break of 8500 can create problems for the market.
- note that market still remains a day trader's market
- option writing points to support at 8500 levels.



March 23, 2015

NIFTY intraday futures charts

- I will be posting futures charts from here on
- Charts are from globaldatafeeds.in
- first chart shows a zoomed out view on 5 min charts- rangebound
- second chart shows zoomed in view on 5 min charts
- here we got only one sell signal when markets closed below the rectangle/ range
- this trade was no profit no loss
- rectangles within the bigger one are for reference only... I did not trade these.
- tomorrow, expect strength if market can sustain above 8590 F.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Market outlook

- trend remains down but is likely to terminate soon
- today we had break of recent support but no follow thru selling
- immediate resistance around 8800 spot
- option writing support at 8500




March 21, 2015

MCX CRUDE charts

Trend is down and will reverse on close above 3350.


MCX GOLD charts

Trend is up and will on close below 25500. Resistance 26700-27500.


MCX SILVER charts

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 36000. Support 35000.


March 20, 2015

Banking stocks at supports

So easy to draw support lines... this is your SL for any long position you may have.

AXIS


NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up from 6500 and will reverse on close below 8470 spot
- current correction assumes parity with previous correction
- expect support near lower trendline
- current pattern is expanding triangle
- pattern implication calls for correction to 7200 levels.


NIFTY intraday spot charts

- formation of lower swing highs
- all legs overlapping
- we may be close to a bottom
- this will be confirmed if we trade above today's high next week



Market outlook

- trend remains down and will reverse on close above 8800 spot
- next support 8470 spot
- option writing points to support at 8500 and resistance at 9000



NSE Quality 30 index

NSE Quality 30 Index aims to cover companies which have durable business model resulting in sustained growth. This index consists of 30 companies which are selected based on low gearing, high return on equity and profit growth.



March 19, 2015

Good example of support and resistance

Now don't be obsessed with the exact level - this is not important. What is important is the overall structure and how the support and resistance levels develop. What is also important is the accompanying price behavior whenever a breakout or breakdown happens.


AXISCADES breakout failure?

We may be having a pin bar setup here.

Keeps happening.. this is a powerful pattern if you know when it happens


Lots of sell signals

Lots are stocks are breaking their 20 day low supports


Results from mystocks.co.in

NIFTY intraday spot charts

- Breakout above last 2 days high forced me to go long in first 10-15 min
- I was aggressively long but was forced to square off at a small profit as nothing happened AFTER taking a position
- Observe the candlesticks in first box (upper tails indicating selling)
- Did not initiate any short trade on break below first box as my bias was bullish and expected markets to be buy on dips
- High of second box and third box look similar in spot but there was a difference in futures chart.
- Went long on breakout above second box (futures) but covered immediately as nothing happened
- Break below 2nd/ 3rd box low was a short signal which worked well...

NOTE: in all these trades, pay attention to what happens AFTER you take a position. If nothing happens for 8-10 bars then something else is happening and so be prepared for a reversal.

In all these trade and futures, it does not matter whether you were right or wrong. This is very important to understand if you want to be a good trader. What is very important and this will determine whether you make money or not is what did you do when you were right or wrong?




Market outlook

- markets sell off on good news
- markets fail to sustain above breakout level of 8750 spot/ 8770 fut
- no follow thru intraday
- now retesting recent support at 8600 spot
- option writing support at 8500 resistance 9000
- expect bounce if 8500 holds.


BANKNIFTY levels

Bigger trend is sideways... support 18500 resistance 19500