June 30, 2015

NIFTY and BNF monthly charts

NIFTY monthly charts: holding 8000 is bullish for nifty


BANK NIFTY monthly charts: difficult to interpret this as we had a break of support at 18250. The next 2 bars took support at 17190.

Monthly close above 18900 will be bullish.


Market outlook

- no sign of any weakness
- daily charts still bullish while weekly trend remains down
- within this 1 day correction, markets form higher high higher low
- advance decline nicely positive
- now close above 8500 will mean we have higher swing low in place at 8200
- option writing points to support at 7900 and resistance at 8500



NIFTY futures intraday charts

- markets traded in small range throughout the day
- breakout from range came around 3 pm - too late


This is how the hourly charts look like:


MCDOWELL Technicals

- bought some shares today as investment
- trading near support so SL is very low
- no targets
- my risk per trade is less than 0.5% of my capital


Kamalesh P Langote
Research Analyst

Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
  • Unless specified, I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
  • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
  • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
  • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
  • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.

Telecom stocks monthly charts

BHARTI AIRTEL: stock is trending up slowly in last 2 years. Immediate support is 330 levels (trend reversal). Expect more strength above 450 (resistance).


June 29, 2015

Greece May Not Even Have The Funds To Conduct A Referendum

IT stocks analysed

HCL TECH: stock is rangebound for past 2-3 months... holding above 870 will be bullish. Next support 840.



Market outlook

- markets open gap down below support and form first day of lower low lower high
- in an uptrend, upto 2-3 days of lower low lower high bars is normal
- we have immediate support near 8200 levels.
- note markets are increasingly rangebound and are roughly where they were 2 months ago.
- weekly trend is still down
- option writing points to support at 7900 and resistance at 8500. Highest OI is at 7900 put.


NIFTY futures intraday charts

- markets open gap down below last 2 days trading range
- first bar is sell with SL at day's high
- trailing SL gets hit around 12.30 giving no profit no loss
- next long trade is profitable
- tomorrrow, levels to watch 8200 and 8400 F.


This is how the hourly charts look like... trend is down as 2 day support breaks.


June 28, 2015

Greece default news in pictures

Lots of news on this.... coming week is sure gonna be an interesting one.


EVEREADY weekly technicals

- trend is up on weekly charts
- support 240. Next support 80-120
- disclaimer: I hold some long positions in this stock and also in Amarajabat and Exide


Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
  • Unless specified, I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
  • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
  • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
  • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
  • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.

JK TYRES technicals

- trend is down on weekly charts
- next support 100
- disclaimer: I hold  some shares as long term investment



Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
  • Unless specified, I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
  • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
  • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
  • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
  • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.

APOLLO TYRE weekly charts

- trend is down on weekly charts
- buy above level is 195
- immediate support 155
- next support is 100
- disclaimer: I own some shares as long term investment


Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
  • Unless specified, I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
  • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
  • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
  • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
  • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 26-JUN-2015 
  • These charts are for educational purposes only.
  • This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
  • Follow the trend... if stock is above last month's high, trend is up and vice versa.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
  • Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in
CENTURY TEXTILES
CENTURY TEXTILES chart

INFOSYS technicals

Stock is trading in a range between 950 and 1030.

Charts like this are very easy to trade.

Just buy on breakout above 1030 with SL below 950... cannot get easier than this.


Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
  • Unless specified, I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
  • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
  • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
  • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
  • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.

June 27, 2015

US markets doing nothing for 6 months - only broker earning

See chart... nothing has happened despite all the global tamasha. Only broker earning.

No clear trend visible and yet people look to US markets for a clue as to what will happen in Indian markets.


China down 20% in less than a month

- China down 7% yesterday
- and down 20% from the highs this month
- a 20% move certainly qualifies as a trend reversal
- but it is nearing over sold levels (RSI)
- and is close to double bottom support



Greeks withdrawing money at 2am in the morning


For more pictures and accompanying story, visit this link.

Greece Invokes Nuclear Option: Tsipras Calls For Referendum

My take on this - sensible thing. When in doubt, go back to the people.



  • GREECE'S TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS POSED ULTIMATUM TO GOVT
  • GREECE'S TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS PROPOSALS ARE AGAINST EU RULES
  • TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS AIM TO HUMILIATE GREEK PEOPLE
  • TSIPRAS SAYS WILL CALL REFERENDUM ON GREEK DEAL WITH CREDITORS
  • TSIPRAS GREEK REFERENDUM WILL BE HELD ON JULY 5
  • TSIPRAS SAYS HE NOTIFIED MERKEL, DRAGHI ON REFERENDUM PLAN
  • TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE IS, AND WILL STAY PART OF EUROPE
  • TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE NEEDS TO SEND DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE TO EU

  • Read more...

    June 26, 2015

    Market outlook

    - trend up on daily charts but down on weekly charts
    - past 4 days we are seeing rangebound trading
    - strong resistance at 8500 levels
    - option writing points to support at 7900 (highest OI) and resistance at 8500 (low OI)
    - this means option writers are bearish and see limited upsides.


    NIFTY futures intraday charts

    - markets rangebound
    - nothing to do whole day
    - hourly chart shows rangebound nature of market


    Hourly chart... trade in direction of breakout.


    June 25, 2015

    Disclosure on open positions

    - these are my open positions bought around last 2 months.
    - all these are medium term to long term investments
    - investment per stock is less than 2% of my capital
    - SL is 8000 nifty below which I will consider a hedge using nifty futures


    BAJAJ AUTO technicals

    - stock in uptrend for 2 months
    - good support at 2300-2200
    - I am a long term investor in this stock


    Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
    • I have investments in the stocks recommended.
    • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
    • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
    • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
    • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.



    Kamalesh Langote
    Research Analyst

    ENGINEERS INDIA monthly charts

    - stock has closed above 2 months high
    - good support at 180 level


    Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
    • I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
    • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
    • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
    • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
    • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.


    Kamalesh Langote
    Research Analyst

    J&K BANK monthly charts

    - trend is down
    - there is no buy signal
    - buy above level is 120 currently on daily charts
    - very good support expected near 90 levels


    Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
    • I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
    • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
    • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
    • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
    • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.


    Kamalesh Langote
    Research Analyst

    JUBLFOOD at lifetime high

    - stock closes at new lifetime high
    - immediate support 1650


    Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
    • I have investments in the stocks recommended.
    • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
    • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
    • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
    • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.


    Kamalesh Langote
    Research Analyst

    GAIL technicals

    - stock is trading in a range between 360 and 420
    - close above 420 will be bullish
    - next resistance is 450-480


    Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014:
    • I have no investments in the stocks recommended.
    • I /my family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending
    • I /my family have not received any compensation from the company where I am recommending a trade or investment.
    • I have not served as an officer, director or employee of company and have not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered in the research report.
    • I have no material conflict in recommendations posted here.


    Kamalesh Langote
    Research Analyst

    Market outlook

    - trend is up on daily charts and down on weekly charts
    - advance decline was flat
    - on daily charts, we now have a small support around 8330 spot levels.
    - this is not a swing low. Why?
    - option writing points to support at 7900 and resistance at 8500 levels (JUL)


    NIFTY futures intraday charts

    - breakout from initial trading range was bullish
    - trailing SL hit around 8400 F


    On hourly charts, we have a swing low at 8320 F. Yesterday's interpretation of trend reversal based on one single bar was in error. It was a warning sign at best.


    June 24, 2015

    Market outlook

    - trend is up on daily charts but down on weekly charts
    - on daily charts, a correction can lead to formation of higher swing low
    - option writing clues for JUL series hints at support at 7900 and resistance at 8400
    - this means option writers are expecting limited upside in JUL but a correction to recent lows.


    NIFTY futures hourly charts

    - possible trend reversal on hourly charts
    - see big bar knocking off all gains of previous bars
    - below 8300 expect more weakness
    - immediate support area in between 8100-8200



    NIFTY futures intraday charts

    - perfect rising wedge formed in intraday charts
    - note progressively smaller ranges being formed since yesterday.



    June 23, 2015

    Market outlook

    Today, for a change, I will post NF charts using kplswing indicator.

    As can be seen, the buy signal will come on close above 8500.

    Now NF was at 84000 roughly in NOV and we are still at same level today.

    So for 6 months markets have been rangebound and this is visible in the indicator whipsaws (all indicators whipsaw in rangebound markets).


    Hot stocks

    LAST updated: 23-JUN-2015 
    • These charts are for educational purposes only.
    • This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
    • Follow the trend... if stock is above last month's high, trend is up and vice versa.
    • Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
    • Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
    • All charts are provided by icharts.in

    June 22, 2015

    Grant of registration as Research Analyst

    I am happy to inform that SEBI has granted me registration as Research Analyst.

    As of  date, 72 entities have got registration of which 45-50 are body corporates (banks, brokerages, financial institutions, etc) and the remaining 20-25 are individuals. I am one of these individuals so the feeling is a bit heady and humbling at the same time.

    I thank everyone for their support and encouragement over the last 8-10 years.

    Special thanks to all the forum members, students and teachers, blog readers, invisible users of kplswing indicator, all the site visitors for their suggestions, feedback and new ideas.

    Thanks once again.

    SEBI link: http://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/home/detail/31149/no/List-of-Registered-Research-Analysts


    Market outlook

    - minor trend is up
    - and markets break out from falling channel trendline
    - on weekly charts, trend is still down
    - weekly charts will turn bullish on close above 8500
    - option writing points to support at 8200 resistance at 8500
    - JULY series trend is expected to be strongly up.


    NIFTY futures intraday charts

    - breakout above previous day's high and intraday initial range was bullish
    - trailing SL did not get hit till close


    June 21, 2015

    Automobile stocks

    MARUTI - stock making new highs; still bullish. SL 3600-3300


    M&M - trading in a big range for almost  a year. Bias is still bullish.


    TATA MTRDVR - trend is down; no buy signal.


    June 20, 2015

    Investing in NIFTYBEES versus regular Mutual Funds

    NIFTYBEES is an ETF (Exchange traded fund). This is a "passively" managed fund where the fund manager has no job except to simply invest the money in a certain proportion as defined in the index (in our case NIFTY). This obviously means that as there is no research involved, the costs are less so the overall management fee drops down substantially. The fee is very low at 0.50%.

    An additional benefit is that ETFs are traded realtime on the exchange so you can buy and sell whenever you want just any any other stock.

    Regular mutual funds are "actively" managed. This means you have a fund manager with a team who do all kinds of research, visits etc and then decide where to invest as per the guidelines of the specific scheme. This involves costs so expect to pay 2-3% per year as management fees whether the fund performs or not. This is the killer.

    Now the problem with actively managed mutual funds is two fold. One, the fund manager has a significant role as the fund performance depends on how good he/ she is. This becomes subjective (for a would be investor) specially if one assumes that any over performance is due to sheer randomness and not any skill. The other is the high management fee - this is understood best in rangebound markets where the index gains nothing loses nothing over 5 years but you have anyway lost at least 10% because of management fees.

    The global experience also throws another interesting fact. It is extremely difficult to beat the index - this means that you are generally paying a lot in management fees which can be saved by simply investing in an ETF.

    To summarize, do consider investing some of your funds in ETFs like NIFTYBEES. Preferred route is SIP over a 4-5 year time frame.

    More information:
    http://www.goldmansachs.com/gsam/in/advisors/products/exchange-traded-funds/equity/nifty-bees/how-to-invest.html
    http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/etfs/equity.htm


    NIFTY weekly chart - beautiful

    - this is a simple line chart and shows the trend beautifully
    - markets are still trending down
    - close above 8500 will be bullish
    - in the meantime, consider 8000 as your SL




    June 19, 2015

    Market outlook

    - trend is down on daily and weekly charts
    - on daily charts, markets closed above 8180-8200 spot level which was minor swing high
    - while this makes trend bullish, one should look at the bigger picture
    - here nifty is still trading in a falling / parallel channel
    - so till we have a breakout out of this channel, one should assume trend is down


    NIFTY futures intraday charts

    - breakout above previous day's high was bullish
    - trailing SL at 8210 F get's hit
    - no short trade recommended when trend is up so nicely
    - last signal gave minimal profits


    June 18, 2015

    Market outlook

    - trend is down on daily and weekly charts
    - close above 8200 will be bullish reversal
    - holding 8000 can lead to 8500 next series
    - option writing support at 8000 levels
    - next month looks bullish based on open writing levels; resistance 8500


    NIFTY futures intraday charts

    - breakout above yesterday's high/ resistance is bullish
    - this is buy signal
    - trailing SL gets hit later in the day after 2pm
    - trade was no profit no loss


    June 17, 2015

    RELIANCE technicals

    - index heavyweight up 3% today
    - close above 945 will be bullish


    Small cap index

    - trend is down on daily and weekly charts
    - close above 5300 will be bullish