June 12, 2016

Is the government cooking up economic growth data?

Are India's statistics just cooked up to give them a good flavour? The question has been raised by critics after the news that statistical "discrepancies" in the January-March quarter were as high as 4.8% of GDP. Critics say this casts doubt on the government claim that GDP growth was a high 7.9% in the January-March quarter, and averaged 7.6% over 2015-16 as a whole.

I have long worried about inconsistencies in India's data. In particular, I worry about the National Accounts' estimate that manufacturing growth was 9.3% last year, when the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) showed almost no growth. True, the IIP covers large industries and leaves out most small industries, and the latter have been growing faster. But that seems inadequate to explain the difference. Nor does 7.9% growth sit well with slow bank lending to corporations, or exports falling for  ..

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/52710911.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

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