September 26, 2016

Neowave analysis of NIFTY

As we argued, “c” can continue to develop as long as it holds above the 0-b line. Break below it, followed by full retracement of c leg of a-b-c, i.e. drop below 28462 (Nifty 8757), would mean the upward “c” leg is over, and a downward “d” leg has opened.

If “d” confirms, then it would be a downward leg which should be a “smaller” fall compared to “b”, i.e. it should not break the bottom of “b” at 28251 (Nifty 8688), to justify “Contracting” Triangle in the 3rd Corrective.

Remember, 3rd Corrective is always the last Corrective of any Complex Corrective development involving x-waves. We marked the larger move as “D” leg from Feb’16.

We are into 3rd leg or “c” leg of the last Corrective. Therefore, 2 or 4 more legs, depending on whether a Diametric or Triangle will ultimately develop inside the 3rd, are still pending. In a “contracting” environment, moves could be “tricky”.

We have already shown since a month ago, that the Nifty PE ratio is into a “Bubble Territory”. Under the circumstances, it would be better to be choosy, and avoid large commitments, and try to play what it available for the short term.

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