October 17, 2016

Market outlook

Daily charts
- nifty trend is up on daily charts
- the recent swing low broke on 29-SEP but I have ignored it.
- this is because of support at 8500 and
- the fact that NF is trading in a falling channel

5 min charts
- break of 2 day range was sell signal
- did not trade short as it was close to a very imp support 8500
- used this decline to exit short calls and built some short trade in covered puts.
- refer my posts on option trading for details.


  1. Almost 450 points of fall from top of Nifty. Your system has remained in uptrend. Dont u think there is more "denial" than "acceptance" of the fact that "price is falling" in ur system? Nishant

    1. For almost 2 months, I have been saying trend is up as long as 8500 holds... since it is still holding, why should I change my views? I am also trading my views and have been posting the trades.

      For a trend reversal, I always look at faster reversal of the most recent rally. The most recent rally lasted 6-7 days but even after a month, the starting point of the rally has not been broken.

      For a start of any correction, look for faster reversal... so if rally was there for 7 days, the low of the rally shd be broken within 4-5 days... but even after a month if it has not broken then clearly the uptrend is still maintained.


    2. Forgot to mention, I have been writing calls for past 1-2 weeks in expectation of no upside. Yesterday, I covered short trades and became bullish.

      My most recent positions/ trades screenshots are posted at http://www.vfmdirect.in/2016/10/nifty-option-writing-trades-ii.html.

      The difference here is I trade on 15 min charts so I can be bearish for 4-5 days and make money on time decay even while the broader trend is up.