November 1, 2016

Neowave outlook on markets

....we need to watch near Aug’16 low of 27628 (Nifty 8518) once again. Remember, Index has been holding roughly around this level for as much as 3 months. So, we must monitor this crucial support.

Indeed, as we have been mentioning, we need to see Index making “lower top lower bottom” below its Aug’16 lows to finally confirm that the 3rd Corrective, and therefore, the larger “D” leg from Feb’16 is over.
....

We also suspected maturity as the “D” leg as it was a Triple Combination Corrective and Index was already forming its 3rd Corrective, which is always the last Corrective of any Complex development involving x-waves.

We had also argued that a Triple Combination carries pattern implication of 60-70% retracement. We also marked the 60% implication at 25000-500 on the initial Daily chart. On Nifty, 60% retracement level would calculate as 7700-7800.

We, remember, assumed that Index was forming a Neutral Triangle since Mar’15 onwards, as shown on the following chart. If its “D” leg is over, as described above, its last leg “E” would go down.

In case of Neutral Triangle, “E” can tend towards “equality” with “A” leg from Mar’15 to Jun’15. If so, then such equality would also calculate levels projecting 25000-500 (Nifty 7700-7800).

Equality of “E” to “A” could be time-wise as well. Since “A” consumed 3 months from Mar’15 to Jun’15, “E” could complete by Dec’16, i.e. in 3 months.
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