March 31, 2016

NIFTY quarterly charts

- nice long hammer formed
- good support around 6300 levels
- do not expect 6800 to break


NIFTY monthly charts

- NF up 11% this month
- complete reversal of last month's down bar good sign
- now expecting slower retracement of current bullish bar aka consolidation


Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- trend reversal level 7550
- today markets closed flat; AD flat
- option writers now writing calls in APR series; support 7500


March 30, 2016

Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- reversal level 7550 spot
- today markets were up 2%
- AD strongly positive, VIX -5%.
- option writing resistance 8000 levels

March 29, 2016

Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- high chances of trend reversal
- immediate support 7550-7400 spot
- expecting 3rd leg of triangle to open down
- triangle view implies 6800 will not break



Human nature and trading


March 28, 2016

TVS MOTOR near lifetime highs


Some metal stocks charts

HINDALCO down 9%


Market outlook

Daily charts
- today's market reverses 3 days of market movement
- immediate support 7550
- AD negative; VIX up 7%
- below 7600, high chances of trend reversal
- swing low support around 7400
- note I am expecting formation of triangle 
- this means legs of triangle will get smaller and markets more rangebound


March 25, 2016

The $3M bet against emerging markets - 2015 trade but good for study

In an eyebrow-raising transaction Wednesday, the investor spent $3 million on a bet that the EEM would plummet 11 percent by the beginning of next year. Specifically, that institution or trader purchased 60,000 of the January 31-strike puts for 50 cents each. Since each options contract accounts for 100 shares of stock, this is a multimillion dollar wager that the ETF will fall below $30.50 by January. That puts the EEM near multiyear lows. The ETF briefly traded below that level during the August flash crash.



The EEM was trading slightly lower, around $34.25 early Thursday.

March 24, 2016

Do you get scared after you take a position?

Do you get scared after you take a position?

If yes, then something is wrong with the way you are trading.

Most probably, the fear is because you are trading against the trend and/ or you are trading a position far beyond what you should ideally be doing.

If you are comfortable with your position, it means you have the trend in your favour (known often in hindsight) or because your positions are so small it is unlikely to cause any material loss in your capital.

If the latter is true, there is a high chance you stand to make good money not necessarily in this particular trade but over a large number of similar trades.


CRUDE 3 years weekly charts

- broader trend is down
- strong resistance around 50 levels


SILVER charts USD

- trend is down on weekly charts
- weekly close above 16.2 with good volumes will be bullish


GOLD charts USD multiple timeframe

3 year weekly  charts
- bigger trend is down
- within this, short term trend has turned up
- support 1150 resistance 1300


March 23, 2016

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 23-MAR-2016 :: 19:41:56 
  • Computer generated BUY and SELL signals.
  • Signals are for your study only and are completely unsuitable for trading.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
  • Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in
ABB INDIA BUY signal
ABB chart

Market outlook + Weekly charts

Weekly charts
- bottom formation in place with support around 6800
- immediate resistance 8000 levels



March 21, 2016

The most surprising part of this rally


Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today AD was slightly positive
- VIX was flat
- NF closes above FEB swing high
- NF holding well above recent resistance around 7550-7600 levels
- immediate support / swing low 7400


March 20, 2016

NF chart for trendline breakout followers


So trend is still up... reversal level 7400

Why not to invest in NPS - excellent article

All tax saving investments have lock-in. But none like NPS.

Consider PPF which has only a seven year lock-in before you can make partial withdrawals, and in 15 years you can make a full withdrawal;

  • EPF – employee contribution can be withdrawn after 2 months of no job; employers contribution can be withdrawn at 58 years of age; (this is a recent change)
  • ELSS or tax saving funds only have a 3 year lock in;
  • Bank FDs for tax savings have a 5 year lock in, so do National Savings Certificates;
  • NPS on the other hand can only be withdrawn at age 60, that too only till 60% of the accumulated value; the rest has to be converted into an annuity that will be received like a pension. And of course, they are taxed too.

Tax on NPS maturity, really?
NPS proceeds are taxable on maturity. Yes, when you finally withdraw that money from your NPS account after turning 60, you will have to pay taxes.

Everyone is selling you the tax benefit on investment but no one is telling you about the the applicable taxes at maturity. This is how the taxation works:


  • 40% of the maturity proceeds can be withdrawn lump sum tax-free.
  • Another 40% (minimum) of the proceeds have to be converted into an annuity which will be taxed as per your income tax bracket.
  • Balance you can either pay tax as per you income tax bracket and withdraw immediately or convert it into an annuity
  • NPS loses me right there. The inflexibility and the complicated taxation puts me off.


Let’s talk about the annuity part of NPS

Read more at http://www.vipinkhandelwal.com/why-am-i-not-investing-in-nps

March 18, 2016

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down on weekly charts
- support 13300 resistance 16000


NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down on weekly charts
- this week, NF closes around resistance level
- holding 6800 will be bullish this year



Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up with support at 7400
- today markets closed at higher end of range
- advance decline was flat
- option writing support 7400 resistance 7700


March 17, 2016

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- strong resistance around 7600 levels
- immediate support 7400-7200 levels
- markets now rangebound for almost 10 days
- option buyers losing money thanks to time decay


March 16, 2016

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 16-MAR-2016 :: 18:47:20 
  • Computer generated BUY and SELL signals.
  • Signals are for your study only and are completely unsuitable for trading.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
  • Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in
AXIS BANK BUY signal
AXISBANK chart

Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- NF trading in a range with support at 7400 and res at 7600
- today, markets closed in positive but AD was negative
- VIX down 3%
- option writing support 7200 resistance 7600


Your Personal Gold Standard

An excellent article why gold and money is the same thing and why prices rise or fall

>>>
...
Gold is the same. It has no yield. An ounce of gold today will be an ounce of gold next year and the year after that. It will not mysteriously turn into two ounces. It will not rust or change shape or color. It is just gold. Yet it is money.

It’s true that the value of gold may change when measured in dollars. It is also true that the value of a dollar may change when measured in euros or ounces of gold. But these changes in relative value do not turn these units into investments; they just reflect supply and demand for different forms of money.

There isn’t a central bank in the world that wants to go back to a gold standard. But that’s not the point. The point is whether they will have to.

...

It’s like putting a thermometer in a patient, getting a 104-degree temperature and blaming the thermometer. The thermometer’s not to blame; it’s just telling you what’s going on. Likewise, the price of gold is not an economic object or aim in itself; it’s a price signal. It tells you what’s going on in the economy. And gold at the levels I’m talking about would mean that you’ve now verged into hyperinflation, or something close to it, because nothing happens in isolation.

....

But if there’s a run on paper currencies (which is entirely possible) and there’s borderline hyperinflation (which is entirely possible), they may have to go to a gold standard… Not because they want to, but because they find it necessary to calm the markets.

I suggest you buy your gold at current levels — around $1,244 — and ride the wave up to these much higher levels ($4,000-5,000 an ounce) and then assess the situation. Be nimble.

Read complete article at http://dailyreckoning.com/your-personal-gold-standard-2


March 15, 2016

20 day swing signals


Amazing how fast these stocks go up and then come down


Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed in negative. AD was also negative
- strong resistance around 7500-7600 levels
- option writing support 7200 resistance 7500
- today there was a cut in 7200 put options.


March 14, 2016

Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets form a doji
- selling seen at higher levels
- expecting strong resistance around 7500-7600 levels
- support around 7200 levels


Statistics and Warren Buffet's returns

The media loves Warren Buffett. Everyone does. And I’m a big fan too, not least because he’s a staunch advocate of indexing for ordinary investors.
He’s also idolised by those who believe in active management. He is, simply, the Sage of Omaha — the most famous active investor in the world.
But how good is he? Don’t get me wrong, Buffett’s long-term performance has been exceptional. But some of the old magic appears to have worn off over the years.
I’ve been speaking to statistician, author and blogger Salil Mehta, who has studied Buffett’s returns in detail. Based at Harvard, Salil runs the website Statistical Ideas, and serves on the Editorial Board of the American Statistical Association and as a consultant to BlackRock.
If you put to one side the media adulation and focus on the value that Buffett has actually delivered, Professor Mehta says his record is not as extraordinary as most people think. 

NIFTY monthly hi/low swing points for option lovers


The above Heatmap shows the Nifty historical monthly high-low swing data points which gives you a broad overview about the nifty monthly swing range. 

Here are some of the visual data points collected from the Nifty high low swing range heatmap.
1) 3 times nifty done a swing more than 1000+ points.
2) Highest Swing occurred during Jan 2008 period. Nifty done a swing of 1908 points. And the Next best comes during OCT 2008 (Lehman Crisis) – swing of1747 points.
3)Interestingly Dec 2012 and Jan 2013 are the ultra low volatile period where the nifty monthly swings 142 and 178 points one of the dullest period in the recent 2009-2015 bull market.
4)During May 2009 (Election Period) Nifty swings 1030.7 points and during May 2015 (Recent Elections) Nifty Swings 925 points.

If you are frequent nifty option trader then the above heatmap provides you lot more meaningful insights to understand the reality of the market.

March 12, 2016

Two Charts To Consider Before The Monday Open (US markets)

Deja-vu all over again...



And what happened next?

Why Negative Rates Can't Stop the Coming Depression

Why Negative Rates Can't Stop the Coming Depression


The logic of lowering rates below zero is so boneheaded that only a PhD could believe it. It’s all relative, you see. It’s like standing on a train platform. The train next to you backs up…and you feel you’re moving ahead. Negative interest rates are like backing up. They give borrowers the illusion of forward motion... even if the economy is standing still.

US markets nearing resistance levels

DJIA


S&P500


March 11, 2016

ASHOKLEY trading near 2 year highs

When markets break out, stocks like these are likely to give superior returns.


WELSPUNIND closes at lifetime high


10 commandments from the conman who sold Eiffel towers twice

1. Be a patient listener (it is this, not fast talking, that gets a con-man his coups).
2. Never look bored.
3. Wait for the other person to reveal any political opinions, then agree with them.
4. Let the other person reveal religious views, then have the same ones.
5. Hint at sex talk, but don’t follow it up unless the other fellow shows a strong interest.
6. Never discuss illness, unless some special concern is shown.
7. Never pry into a person’s personal circumstances (they’ll tell you all eventually).
8. Never boast. Just let your importance be quietly obvious.
9. Never be untidy.
10. Never get drunk.


Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/man-who-sold-eiffel-tower-twice-180958370

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down on weekly charts
- strong res around 16000
- good support around 13300


NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down on weekly charts
- this week, NF forms a doji
- expecting resistance in the region 7500-7600
- 6800 to provide good support for next few weeks


Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets close flat/ form a doji
- VIX down 5%
- strong resistance seen around 7500-7600 region
- immediate support 7400 and then 7200


March 10, 2016

Basic candlestick patterns


Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- immediate support 7400
- strong resistance in region of 7500-7600
- option writing support 7200 resistance 7500



Hot stocks

LAST updated: 09-MAR-2016 
  • Computer generated BUY and SELL signals.
  • Signals are for your study only and are completely unsuitable for trading.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
  • Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in
ABB INDIA BUY signal
ABB chart

March 9, 2016

Something strange in open interest figures today

Today there was an increase in 7500 call open interest AND a decrease in 7000 put open interest.

These 2 strikes have the highest OI so the market is telling something.

First guess is 7500 will not be taken out and 7000 may break or be retested this series.

Let's see.



The Financial System Is A Larger Threat Than Terrorism

The purpose of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury’s policy of zero interest rates is to support the prices of the over-leveraged and fraudulent financial instruments that unregulated financial systems always create. If inflation was properly measured, these zero rates would be negative rates, which means not only that retirees have no income from their retirement savings but also that saving is a losing proposition. Instead of earning interest on your savings, you pay interest that shrinks the real value of your saving.
Central banks, neoliberal economists, and the presstitute financial media advocate negative interest rates in order to force people to spend instead of save. The notion is that the economy’s poor economic performance is not due to the failure of economic policy but to people hoarding their money. The Federal Reserve and its coterie of economists and presstitutes maintain the fiction of too much savings despite the publication of the Federal Reserve’s own report that 52% of Americans cannot raise $400 without selling personal possessions or borrowing the money
Negative interest rates, which have been introduced in some countries such as Switzerland and threatened in other countries, have caused people to avoid the tax on bank deposits by withdrawing their savings from banks in large denomination bills. In Switzerland, for example, demand for the 1,000 franc bill (about $1,000) has increased sharply. These large denomination bills now account for 60% of the Swiss currency in circulation.
The response of depositors to negative interest rates has resulted in neoliberal economists, such as Larry Summers, calling for the elimination of large denomination bank notes in order to make it difficult for people to keep their cash balances outside of banks.
Other neoliberal economists, such as Kenneth Rogoff want to eliminate cash altogether and have only electronic money. Electronic money cannot be removed from bank deposits except by spending it. With electronic money as the only money, financial institutions can use negative interest rates in order to steal the savings of their depositors.
People would attempt to resort to gold, silver, and forms of private money, but other methods of payment and saving would be banned, and government would conduct sting operations in order to suppress evasions of electronic money with stiff penalties.