August 31, 2016

GLAXO multiple time frame technicals

Daily charts
- stock is trending down this year
- stock has also made a new 52 week low

- today there was an intraday spike of 10% in the stock

MBL INFRA multiple time frame analysis - AVOID

Stock is down 40% this month and 60% this year

As NF is retesting all time highs, this stock is retesting all time lows!

Buy strength not weakness

Daily charts with kplswing indicator



Weekly chart

NIFTY and BANKNIFTY monthly charts

- trend is up on monthly charts
- higher high higher low for 6 consecutive months
- NF has gained 24% from its lows in 6 months
- all time high around 9000 levels


BANKNIFTY - similar chart/ story ... resistance 21000.

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed in positive
- but advance decline was negative
- option writing support remains at 8500



August 30, 2016

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets up 1.6%
- advance decline nicely positive
- today's closing is highest for this year
- option writers bullish; do not expect 8500 to break
- my support level for this market - 8480


5 min charts
- breakout from initial trading range was bullish
- cover at close


MCX SILVER chart

- trend is down
- next support 4200
- previous resistance 48650

MCX GOLD chart

- trend is up
- previous resistance 30500 now offering support

August 29, 2016

Interesting charts

BALRAMCHIN trend down next major support 100



Open positions

Best returns

TickerClose% ChBought @Buy DateStoplossReturn %Return Rs.Remarks
HINDALCO 158.30 1.80% 89.30 13/05/2016 145.00 77.27% 3,863.38
VEDL 173.35 2.42% 106.35 20/04/2016 160.00 63.00% 3,149.98
YESBANK 1,338.65 0.92% 915.50 27/04/2016 1,250.00 46.22% 2,311.03
JSWSTEEL 1,773.15 0.97% 1,375.65 27/05/2016 1,680.00 28.90% 1,444.77
AXISBANK 589.15 0.47% 459.10 20/04/2016 575.00 28.33% 1,416.36
PETRONET 338.20 0.30% 272.65 18/04/2016 320.00 24.04% 1,202.09
APOLLOTYRE 184.20 4.24% 151.40 29/06/2016 170.00 21.66% 1,083.22
EXIDEIND 179.05 2.55% 149.50 27/04/2016 170.00 19.77% 988.29
BPCL 598.80 0.51% 506.00 27/05/2016 575.00 18.34% 917.00
PFC 114.35 -1.21% 96.97 08/07/2016 115.00 17.92% 896.15 Stoploss hit; Exit trade
INDUSINDBK 1,155.55 -0.69% 986.40 13/04/2016 1,140.00 17.15% 857.41

Poor returns

TickerClose% ChBought @Buy DateStoplossReturn %Return Rs.Remarks
BEL 1,214.90 -0.35% 1,289.20 08/06/2016 1,200.00 -5.76% (288.16)
APOLLOHOSP 1,341.30 -0.79% 1,405.35 08/08/2016 1,350.00 -4.56% (227.88) Stoploss hit; Exit trade
CIPLA 568.00 0.13% 567.20 24/08/2016 540.00 0.14% 7.05
VOLTAS 391.35 -0.10% 388.20 24/08/2016 360.00 0.81% 40.57
ZEEL 530.10 4.76% 521.80 24/08/2016 500.00 1.59% 79.53
TATASTEEL 373.75 1.16% 365.45 22/07/2016 360.00 2.27% 113.56
OIL 384.25 -0.12% 374.95 05/08/2016 370.00 2.48% 124.02
CAIRN 202.90 1.12% 197.25 05/08/2016 190.00 2.86% 143.22
ITC 252.80 -0.39% 245.67 28/06/2016 245.00 2.90% 145.11

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed in positive but AD was negative
- however NF has made on real progress in past few weeks
- pattern looks like a rounding top
- this has bearish implications if neckline (8480) breaks.
- option writing support 8500.




The Face of Persuasion

.... both Trump and Clinton have chosen fear as their persuasion tool. Trump wants you to fear terrorists and criminals because he thinks he can make a persuasive case that he’s the solution to those fears. Clinton asks us to fear Trump himself, offering herself as the solution to that fear.

So which fear is stronger, persuasion-wise?

Trump makes us fear dangers that are unlikely to have a personal impact on most of us. It is deeply unlikely that any one specific person in America will die in a terror attack. And if we stay away from high-crime areas, the odds of getting murdered are low too. So Trump’s fears have an abstract quality about them.

Clinton cleverly makes the public fear Trump having access to the nuclear codes. That’s a danger that could – in Clinton’s telling of it – kill us all. By that point of view, if you buy what Clinton is selling, Trump is a danger to you personally.

On top of that, the risks that Trump discusses have no human faces. We don’t know what the leader of ISIS looks like. We don’t know the specific person who might someday shoot us in Detroit. We don’t know the face of the terrorist who might blow up a building we are in. Trump’s danger is faceless and nameless, at least in our minds.

Clinton, on the other hand, cleverly defined Trump as the biggest risk to the survival of the country. Not only does Trump have a face, but we see that face multiple times a day to remind us. That’s an enormous persuasion advantage for Clinton. She is selling a fear that has a face, and it’s a fear she says could kill you personally, as opposed to killing strangers.

Trump is selling a faceless, abstract flavor of fear. That has far less potency than Clinton’s approach because humans are wired to give extra emotional weight to human faces.

Fear is the most  powerful persuasion tool, and Clinton has the stronger position there. I still predict Trump will win in a landslide, but he needs to solve for this first.

Source: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/149530283761/the-face-of-persuasion

Elliott Wave Analysis Updates of Nifty for 29 Aug 2016 Onward

This “Elliott Wave Analysis Updates of Nifty for 29 Aug 2016 Onward” I am posting as further updates on my last analysis report “Nifty is Still Indicating Bounce above 8728 – EW Analysis for 26 August Onward” as Nifty already declined very near to stoploss 8539.
Nifty opened gap up today at 8614 and bounced marginally till 8622 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined gradually by 80 points from high to register day’s low 8547 followed by a bounce of 80 points before closing 19 points down at 8572 .

Yesterday, short term trading strategy was “Buying on Dips” and suggested to buy Sept 8800-8900 Calls on decline till 8541 using exact stoploss of 8539. Nifty declined very near to stoploss and registered low 8547 on Friday.

Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-analysis-updates-of-nifty-for-29-aug-2016-onward/

August 28, 2016

HDIL charts

- stock closes at 3 month low
- good support around 90 levels
- we already have a sell on weekly line charts



Weekly charts

NIFTY IT stocks technicals weekly charts

All stocks are in downtrend so I will not comment individually .. support resistance lines are drawn on charts

HCLTECH