January 10, 2017

Neowave analysis of market

... all corrective phases in Indian market consumed about 13 or 21 months, both of which are Fibonacci Numbers.

Dec’16 was the 21st month from Mar’15. Thus, the larger corrective phase may have ended as a Neutral Triangle in 21 months. 

Accordingly, we raised the question if the Corrective phase is now over, and whether a new up-move has indeed opened from Dec’16 bottom. If it is a new up-move, then Index should move to new all-time highs above Mar’16 high of 30025 (Nifty 9119). 

However, we also mentioned the possibility that the post-Dec’16 move may be only an x-wave after completing 1st Corrective as Diamond-Shaped Diametric. If it is only an x-wave, then it should end below 61.8% retracement level to the 1st Corrective.

The 61.8% retracement level calculates to about 27800 (Nifty 8560), and the same is accordingly marked on the initial Daily chart as a crucial upside for the current up-move. By NEoWave, a small x-wave should not retrace more than 61.8% of the 1st Corrective.

We will, accordingly, monitor the progress of the current up-move and see if it hesitates before reaching the 61.8% mark, and proves itself as x-wave.

If the up-move proves only as an x-wave, then either “E” on the Neutral Triangle is converting itself into a Complex Corrective OR larger corrective phase may have started from Sep’16, as per 8-year cycle, instead of Mar’15.

Read more at http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_201719132720.asp

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