March 31, 2017

BANKNIFTY daily, weekly and monthly charts

Monthly charts
- trend is up on monthly charts
- support 17700
- close below 20000 in April may hint at trend reversal

Option writing trades - VI

Previous trades are available here.

To make it easier for me, I will post my trades only on trend reversal. I will also not be posting the MTM everyday as I assume readers are smart enough to figure out if the trade is in profit or not.

All trades are based on 15 min charts.

My usual trade quantity is 900.


NIFTY daily, weekly and monthly charts

Monthly charts:
- trend is up on monthly charts
- this month, NF closed at lifetime high
- support 7900 resistance 9500
- close below 8800 in April can hint at trend reversal


March 30, 2017

The coffee can portfolio approach to long term investing

The coffee can portfolio approach is very simple yet extremely powerful: invest and forget.

Invest with a long term view i.e. 10-20 years. Buy whenever a good stock is available at a discount but do not ever sell it.

Invest in any business which you understand and are comfortable with it for long term.

Spread your risks over 20-30 stocks (I prefer 100 as I am dumb).

Sell only when you need the money. My note: spend atleast half the money... no point in living poor and dying rich.

When buying at a discount, the situation is like going to a sale where something is available at 20-30% off the regular price. You never buy clothes or mobiles just because they hit a new high!. You rush to buy these when are they are at discount.

Statistically, some investments will become duds (downside is zero) but some few will significantly outperform the broader market. This is where the power of compounding will kick in.

Of course, some people will have the view 10 years or 20 years is too long. But people should remember whether you invest today or not, 20 years will anyway pass.

Here are some links for further reading.
- the original paper on coffee can investing (pdf)
- Value Research article
- Ambit Capital paper on coffee can portfolio in 2015 and 2016

And before I forget, open an account with any brokerage like Upstox or Zerodha where delivery charges are ZERO. 

Today's signals

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today,  NF closed 9174 (highest close)
- good support 9000
- option writing support is also at 9000
- some cut seen in 9500 APRIL CE open interest

March 29, 2017

Negative divergence in BANKNIFTY even as it closes at new high

Means stay cautious with longs / keep tight SL



Swing trading signals :: 29-MAR-2017

Swing trading signals :: 29-MAR-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| AIAENG1556.401.50%5.00%BUY1425.0015821294
||||| ASHOKLEY84.00-2.50%-7.00%SELL93.409789
||||| ATUL2380.453.50%6.50%BUY2112.0524382155
||||| BAJAJCORP386.003.50%5.50%BUY360.00381364
||||| BAJAJHIND13.10-2.50%-9.50%SELL14.951714
||||| BANKBEES2160.780.50%3.50%BUY2065.0021201970
||||| BANKINDIA138.401.50%7.00%BUY122.85138117
||||| BASF1293.953.50%10.50%BUY1147.0013201122
||||| BLUESTARCO651.105.50%15.00%BUY540.95589520
||||| BRITANNIA3391.401.50%5.00%BUY3045.3032963113
||||| CARERATING1582.655.00%13.00%BUY1385.0514401320
||||| CENTENKA428.502.50%31.50%BUY311.00340293
||||| CORPBANK51.104.50%8.50%BUY46.205643
||||| COX&KINGS221.805.50%16.00%BUY183.35204185
||||| EDELWEISS157.657.50%14.50%BUY129.25148110
||||| FEDDERLOYD83.505.50%13.50%BUY70.508071
||||| GLENMARK869.15-0.50%-6.00%SELL944.10973880
||||| GRUH402.208.50%7.50%BUY362.20391338
||||| HAVELLS460.852.00%13.00%BUY405.60446396
||||| HCL-INSYS51.40-1.50%-4.50%SELL56.706053
||||| IPCALAB601.302.50%8.50%BUY538.10574514
||||| ITDCEM168.653.50%11.00%BUY147.70168145
||||| JMFINANCIL89.306.00%5.00%BUY78.208868
||||| KALPATPOWR310.107.00%8.00%BUY274.95300263
||||| KIRIINDUS270.15-2.00%-10.00%SELL308.85314278
||||| KOLTEPATIL185.2014.00%78.00%BUY103.8511395
||||| LAKSHMIEFL60.30-10.00%-12.50%SELL74.807767
||||| LTI716.453.50%0.50%BUY680.05718656
||||| MAJESCO333.90-2.00%-2.50%SELL399.00384331
||||| MARICO298.702.50%6.00%BUY276.25283253
||||| MOTHERSUMI379.502.00%8.00%BUY346.00359325
||||| MUTHOOTFIN378.257.50%6.00%BUY325.00365307
||||| PGHH7260.252.50%2.00%BUY6611.1571506865
||||| RAIN109.503.00%28.00%BUY85.408966
||||| RECLTD180.404.00%18.00%BUY151.30160139
||||| RENUKA14.30-2.00%-8.00%SELL16.001814
||||| RESPONIND86.75-9.00%-11.50%SELL107.0010561
||||| RICOAUTO54.65-2.50%-3.50%SELL62.506355
||||| ROLTA57.850.00%-7.00%SELL63.256662
||||| SAREGAMA242.7010.00%16.50%BUY204.00230200
||||| SCI73.505.50%17.00%BUY61.807162
||||| SHALPAINTS166.4011.00%13.50%BUY140.00160141
||||| SHRIRAMCIT2156.452.00%13.00%BUY1852.0020001885
||||| SKFINDIA1518.401.50%2.50%BUY1449.0014981270
||||| SREINFRA83.00-2.50%-10.00%SELL98.8510286
||||| SUNDRMFAST389.853.50%16.00%BUY334.55351318
||||| TALWALKARS249.401.00%10.00%BUY220.25236210
||||| TEXRAIL87.05-1.50%-1.00%SELL96.2510788
||||| TORNTPOWER224.353.00%9.00%BUY190.50214193
||||| UCALFUEL218.7020.00%19.50%BUY175.00202177
||||| VIPIND187.502.50%23.00%BUY143.60156129
||||| VOLTAS413.255.50%10.50%BUY366.25375320

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed 0.5% in positive
- but AD was negative
- option writing resistance 9500 (next series)
- I am increasing support to 9000 levels (swing low)
- next support 8850

March 28, 2017

Market has gone up but my stocks have not

NSE advance decline chart

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- past few days, market is getting increasingly rangebound
- today, markets closed 0.6% in positive
- AD was flat while VIX was down 25
- option writing resistance 9500 APRIL series


Swing trading signals :: 28-MAR-2017

Swing trading signals :: 28-MAR-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ACE58.8013.00%10.00%BUY50.205946
||||| ADFFOODS173.954.00%19.00%BUY144.25165144
||||| BATAINDIA552.101.50%10.00%BUY491.90514475
||||| BAYERCROP3745.10-0.50%-3.50%SELL3955.0043003815
||||| BODALCHEM147.704.00%10.50%BUY126.50141129
||||| CENTURYTEX1048.452.00%11.00%BUY914.05958828
||||| DBCORP370.30-2.50%-3.00%SELL393.90388364
||||| DHFL367.001.00%10.00%BUY320.00339284
||||| DISHMAN278.7020.00%23.00%BUY220.10241203
||||| FILATEX125.809.50%79.00%BUY67.407962
||||| FSL40.45-1.50%-7.00%SELL46.554939
||||| HEIDELBERG122.251.50%7.50%BUY110.60135109
||||| HINDZINC326.000.50%6.00%BUY282.50333291
||||| INFRATEL318.651.50%10.50%BUY281.75328282
||||| INOXLEISUR273.955.50%13.00%BUY232.50248213
||||| M&MFIN328.852.50%13.00%BUY274.10310264
||||| MAHLIFE436.255.00%25.50%BUY343.55368341
||||| MAXVIL92.054.50%11.50%BUY79.009366
||||| NBVENTURES127.958.00%13.00%BUY111.60118111
||||| NEULANDLAB1489.7017.50%64.00%BUY902.00977881
||||| NOCIL89.905.50%7.00%BUY79.908774
||||| ONGC186.90-1.00%-4.00%SELL197.30205191
||||| ONMOBILE86.506.00%9.00%BUY75.158876
||||| PNBHOUSING1164.955.00%9.00%BUY955.001139900
||||| RAJESHEXPO583.652.50%10.50%BUY519.05536493
||||| SBIN282.100.50%5.00%BUY264.25283262
||||| SIGNET16.00-1.50%-21.00%SELL21.102420
||||| SUNTV781.402.50%10.00%BUY702.00774526
||||| TAKE132.10-1.50%-3.50%SELL145.35142132
||||| TATAMETALI547.103.50%13.50%BUY478.10526363
||||| TATAPOWER88.801.50%7.00%BUY80.758679
||||| TBZ78.105.50%14.50%BUY61.407466
||||| TDPOWERSYS203.608.50%29.50%BUY153.00192153
||||| TECHNO382.709.00%3.50%BUY331.90384346
||||| TWL116.202.50%13.50%BUY100.8511897
||||| VOLTAMP1029.904.50%9.00%BUY929.001035931
||||| ZEEL530.352.50%5.00%BUY493.65533487