March 27, 2017

Neowave outlook of markets

... triangular development requires “contracting legs”. However, if the Index weakens decisively even below the bottom of b-leg, i.e. last week’s low at 29137 (Nifty 9019), then it is possible that “g”, and therefore the larger Diametric from Dec’16 is over.

Remember, last week we argued that “g” cannot finish in just 4 days, and it could consume anything between 6 and 14 days, i.e. a time similar to previous upward segments marked as “a”, “c” and “e”. This does rule out the possibility of “g” leg ending at a “failure” point or at a lower high, as a C-Failure Flat.

As of Friday, “g” has already consumed 10 days. Weakness & close below last week’s low would also form a lower top lower bottom on the Daily Close-only chart, which stands for DOWN trend as per Dow Theory. Watch the next week accordingly.

Remember, with Nifty PE Ratio already into “Bubble Territory” and the fact that we are into the last month of 1st Quarter of ‘2017, we are turned selective & cautious as Index forms what we assume as the last leg of post-Dec’16 rally.

A faster downside retracement of the last rising leg inside “g”, followed by decisive break below the bottom of “f” leg at 28716 (Nifty 8860), would be required to end the larger rally from Dec’16 as a Diametric.
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