April 3, 2017

Neowave analysis of market

 ...since “g” from 9th March is the last leg of post-Dec’16 development, we had turned selective. We also observed that Nifty PE Ratio was into a “Bubble Territory” and going by the history since ‘2000, most of the tops are made in the 1st Quarter of a Calendar Year.

However, Index is still forming a higher top higher bottom, which defines an UP trend according to Dow Theory. As per NEoWave, completion of an upward structure is indicated when its last rallying segment is completely retraced in faster time. This is yet to happen.

Index is now trading below the Yellow channel, but we require lower top lower bottom forming below the Yellow channel as a -ve sign. Last week, as we’ve noted, Index avoided lower top lower bottom formation by protecting preceding week’s low.

Indeed, after the State Poll results, Sensex was able to cross the ‘2016 high with a gap-up action on 14th March. And it is still holding that gap-up area. As of now, this looks like a +ve sign.

Sustaining above previous top can structurally justify the alternate Blue labels shown on the Daily chart below. It suggests “g” started after Index took support at the gap-up area, and when it gapped-up on 14th March.
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