August 18, 2017

Market outlook

Daily chart
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF opened gap down, tested 9800 and closed near open
- close was 0.7% negative, AD was 1:2 (not bad)
- damage in midcaps/ small caps was not much (less than nifty)
- hammer pattern formed (unreliable in present context)
- next week, holding above 9880 will be bullish
- swing low support 9700

August 17, 2017

Discountinuing Stock watch posts

100+ posts in 25 days... no response or comments... might as well as have been posting to a dead world.

I can also sense limited utility as most people would like to be told when a breakout happens instead of telling them a level and letting them figure out when the breakout happens.

Will think of something else.

NIFTY Option Open Interest analysis

Option writers expect
- 9800 to hold
- 10000 to be crossed
- but limited upsides thereafter (???)

Let's see

Swing trading signals :: 17-AUG-2017

Swing trading signals :: 17-AUG-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ATULAUTO456.954.50%8.00%BUY401.00442401
||||| BEML1858.858.00%20.50%BUY1422.4517301504
||||| BLUESTARCO739.155.00%11.00%BUY620.00712587
||||| CENTRALBK72.05-3.00%-22.50%SELL93.8010086
||||| FLFL345.407.00%9.00%BUY308.00331299
||||| GRAPHITE270.2010.50%52.50%BUY178.50208165
||||| HEXAWARE278.255.00%12.00%BUY239.40265236
||||| HINDZINC294.801.00%4.50%BUY267.50286263
||||| INOXWIND107.30-3.00%-25.50%SELL146.55168126
||||| MOTILALOFS1196.008.00%10.50%BUY1025.2511661025
||||| PANAMAPET214.359.00%36.50%BUY154.10188143
||||| PENIND58.704.00%8.50%BUY46.705852
||||| SANOFI4097.650.00%-2.50%SELL4361.0043504132
||||| SELAN175.908.00%2.00%BUY156.60176156
||||| SUNFLAG48.854.00%3.00%BUY42.054836
||||| VTL1141.40-1.00%-3.00%SELL1248.0012431128

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF traded in small range and closed flat
- AD was marginally positive
- formation of higher high higher low still intact (3rd day)
- swing low support 9700
- expecting resistance around 10000

August 16, 2017

Stock watch: AMBUJACEM

- trend is up
- stock gave most recent buy in JUL
- support 260-245
- all time high is 280 approx



Stock watch: ADANIPORTS

- trend is up on daily charts
- SL 375-360
- stock is trading near all time highs

Stock watch: ACC

- trend is up
- stock trading near all time highs
- support 1700-1560

Stock watch: ABB

- trailing SL hit in AUG
- now buy above level is 1510

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 1.1% in positive
- AD was 2:1
- resistance around 10000
- swing low is now increased to 9700
- weekly close below this will confirm trend reversal

August 14, 2017

Stock watch: ZEEL

- stock is rangebound between 480 and 560
- no clear trend visible


Stock watch: YESBANK

- trend is up
- support 1650-1400
- stock is near all time highs

Stock watch: WIPRO

- trend is up
- support 275-250
- strong resistance around 310 on weekly charts

Stock watch: VEDL

- trend is up on daily charts
- support 265
- strong resistance at 320 on monthly charts



Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF opened gap up and closed 0.86% in positive
- Friday's doji was clear indication of fight between bulls and bears.
- support at 9700 still holds
- most probably this is a 'dead cat bounce'
- AD was 4:1
- VIX down 5%

Neowave analysis of markets

...
With this fall, Sensex has retraced 78% (Nifty 66%) of the 3rd Corrective. It has also retraced its last 21 days of Sensex gains fully within 7 days. On Nifty, it retraced 16 days of gains in 50% time.

If the ferocity of the fall continues further from here, and breaks the starting point of the 3rd Corrective at the bottom of 30th Jun, i.e. it breaks below 30680 (Nifty 9448), then we’ll have no other option but to finish off the 3rd Corrective.

This could mean that the post Dec’16 rally ended as a Triple Diametric, as per the new labels shown on the initial Daily chart.

For the time being, we consider the new labels as alternate labels, but the same can confirm if 3rd Corrective is completely retraced.

Remember, we had already marked the 1st as well 2nd Corrective both as a Diametric pattern.

As per NEoWave, 3 is the maximum number of Correctives one can have inside a Complex Corrective development. This means, we cannot expect 3rd x-wave and 4th Corrective thereafter.

If the Index adopts the alternate structure by completely retracing the 3rd Corrective as per new labels, then it would mean the current fall is part of a fresh downward structure, and last week’s fall is only “a” leg of the downward structure. 

Read more at http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_2017814105413.asp

Did markets correct because of SEBI action against 300 shell companies?

The media is always after 'cause and effect' so you will read everywhere that markets corrected because of  SEBI action against 300 shell companies.

Really?

Here is the NIFTY chart showing the correction. The other charts are global market indices which have corrected exactly at the same time.

So does it mean that the SEBI action had a strong effect in other markets also? Obviously not.

August 13, 2017

GST :: height of stupidity :: how to mess up an excellent system

Read this in ET today ... Source


Lots of stupidity in this GST... shirts below 1000, one rate... above 1000 another rate. And shoes below 500 one rate, above 500 another rate. So retailers are selling shoes in 2 parts... one left one right. 

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- index down 3.4% this week
- this is the biggest drop in this rally
- support 23000
- most likely trend reversal.





NIFTY weekly charts

- 4 weeks of gains negated in one week
- big red bar this week
- fast/ big move in opposite direction usually implies trend reversal
- any move from here will be sell on rise
- SL 10200

August 11, 2017

Stock watch: UPL

- stock hit trailing SL this month

Stock watch: ULTRACEMCO

- trend is up on daily charts
- after generating buy signal, stock is retesting support
- support is around 3830

Stock watch: UBL

- trend is up
- support 765
- strong resistance 850

Stock watch: TORRENT PHARM

- trend is up on daily charts
- level of 1150-1200 is v good support on weekly charts

Swing trading signals :: 11-AUG-2017

Swing trading signals :: 11-AUG-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABFRL162.25-3.50%-11.00%SELL185.75186166
||||| ALKEM1705.75-1.00%-4.00%SELL1894.5518601718
||||| APLLTD515.00-1.50%-4.50%SELL578.00578506
||||| COALINDIA235.90-1.00%-5.50%SELL265.25265243
||||| CROMPTON224.103.50%3.50%BUY200.05232200
||||| CYIENT492.95-2.50%-3.00%SELL548.10548503
||||| DAAWAT57.95-5.50%-14.50%SELL72.407266
||||| FINPIPE574.40-1.00%-11.00%SELL654.20671601
||||| GEOJITFSL97.10-5.50%-7.00%SELL113.6011098
||||| GSKCONS5324.90-1.50%-2.50%SELL5600.0055775350
||||| HINDZINC270.50-3.50%-1.00%SELL292.60286263
||||| HSIL346.85-3.50%-12.00%SELL409.90424364
||||| ICIL115.10-13.00%-30.00%SELL166.50170145
||||| IDEA86.20-1.50%-3.00%SELL99.7010082
||||| JINDALPOLY358.55-4.50%-7.50%SELL415.75422369
||||| JKPAPER89.90-1.50%-7.00%SELL100.0010190
||||| JPINFRATEC17.95-4.50%-6.00%SELL25.252517
||||| KEC281.55-2.50%-4.00%SELL317.70318255
||||| LT1131.95-2.00%-3.00%SELL1207.5012081114
||||| M&M1348.05-2.50%-2.00%SELL1433.6514241343
||||| NAUKRI956.25-3.50%-5.50%SELL1089.701070976
||||| NESTLEIND6544.30-1.00%-3.50%SELL6959.6069896675
||||| NIFTYBEES997.78-0.50%-1.00%SELL1043.991039976
||||| NMDC117.65-3.00%-1.50%SELL130.40128108
||||| PFC117.65-5.50%-5.00%SELL139.65129121
||||| PVR1285.90-3.50%-8.00%SELL1445.0014651319
||||| RAMCOSYS345.10-2.00%-8.00%SELL456.00456324
||||| SADBHAV269.05-3.00%-7.00%SELL297.80315277
||||| SBIN280.15-5.50%-3.50%SELL314.80314272
||||| SHRIRAMCIT2077.00-1.00%-8.00%SELL2389.9026162216
||||| TVSMOTOR536.80-7.50%-5.50%SELL610.45586543
||||| UBL787.60-4.00%-2.50%SELL859.00842780

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- faster reversal of previous rally hints at trend change
- NF closed 1.1% in negative
- today we had a big gapdown but flat closing (doji)
- AD was 1:2 which is much better than yesterday (1:8)
- this means bulls are stepping in to defend 9700

NSE Advance Decline Line

Rally is not supported by broader market... repeating this message for several weeks.

NIFTY is near 52 week but correcting for 3-4 days. Today, market is down barely 1% and 200 stocks have already hit their 52 week low. How is it possible?

Today first hour low crucial

In panic, I will consider long trades.

August 10, 2017

INFOSYS and NRN

Stock watch: TITAN

- trend is up on daily charts
- support 500
- stock is near all time highs

Stock watch: TECHM

- trend is down
- strong resistance around 420 levels
- immediate support 360

Stock watch: TCS

- trend is up
- support 2300
- all time high is around 2800
- this level was tested in 2015, 2016



Only sell signals today and nifty is down barely 1%

LAST updated: 10-AUG-2017 
Buy signals:

Sell Signals:  ABAN - ABB - ADANIPOWER - ADANITRANS - ANDHRABANK - 
ARIHANTSUP - BAJAJHIND - BALAJITELE - BALKRISIND - BEML -BODALCHEM - BOSCHLTD - CAPF - CAPLIPOINT - CASTROLIND - CDSL - CENTRALBK - CENTURYPLY - COROMANDEL - CUB - CUMMINSIND -DEEPIND - DLF - DREDGECORP - EQUITAS - ERIS - EROSMEDIA - ESCORTS - GAIL - GDL - GENESYS - GICHSGFIN - GMDCLTD - GPPL - GSFC -GUJFLUORO - HINDCOPPER - HUDCO - ICICIBANK - IDBI - IDFC - IIFL - IMFA - 
MANAPPURAM - MANINDS - MANINFRA - MCDOWELL-N - MCX - MGL -MINDTREE - MRF - MUTHOOTFIN - NATHBIOGEN - NATIONALUM - NBCC - NCC - 
NETWORK18 - NFL - NIITLTD - NILAINFRA - OBEROIRLTY - OFSS -ORIENTBANK - PARAGMILK - PEL - PIIND - PNB - PTC - PUNJLLOYD - RAIN - 
RAYMOND - RCOM - RECLTD - RELIGARE - RELINFRA - RICOAUTO - SAIL -SHAKTIPUMP - SINTEX - SOBHA - SOUTHBANK - SREINFRA - STAR - STCINDIA - 

NOTE: All signals based on kplswing indicator. Click on stock name for trading possibilities.


NIFTY futures support and resistance on hourly charts


Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed in the red and below 9900
- this is 3rd consecutive close in red
- close was 0.9% in negative
- AD was 1:8
- note good support around 9700

On a different note, 144 stocks closed at 52 lows and only 14 at 52 week highs.

So many stocks making 52 week lows and the correction has not even started

Just checked the NSE website... there is one page of stocks making 52 week high (14 stocks) and EIGHT pages of stocks making 52 week lows (144 stocks).

And the correction has not even started.

August 9, 2017

NIFTY Option Open Interest

As per my last post, option writers did not expect 10000 to break this month.

For quite some time, NF did manage to stay above 10000 and broke this level only yesterday.

Did they incur any loss? I guess so. But they were writing these puts for quite some time and the level broke only on 8th of this month... meaning time decay would have worked in favour of the writer and helped minimise losses. Overall loss would be under 10 Rs. per option.

As per today's data, option writers are writing 10100 calls. So let's see how things pan out.

I am expecting a trading range between 10100 and 9700.

Stock watch: TATASTEEL

- trend is up
- support 540
- stock is at 52 week high and also at 3 year high
- all time high is 1000+

Stock watch: TATAPOWER

- trend is down
- resistance 85
- stock is currently near support at 76
- deep/ good support 55

Stock watch: TATAMTRDVR

- trend is down
- stock is trading near 52 lows
- in contrast, MARUTI is near lifetime highs
- next deep and very good support is 185

Sell signal on NIFTY futures 15 min and 60 min charts

Before the trend reverses on EOD charts, the cracks start appearing in the smaller time frame charts. If you are a futures trader (positional), you would be following hourly or 15 min charts (like me).

Here is the hourly chart showing where the buy got triggered and now where the sell is.

Chart also shows the support lines.

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in negative
- AD was 1:6... meaning lots of broad based selling
- support 9700
- swing low at 9400

August 8, 2017

Stock watch: SUNTV

- stock has recently given a sell signal
- resistance 875

Stock watch: SUNPHARMA

- trend is down (like all pharma stocks)
- resistance 600
- no visually obvious support visible down

Stock watch: SRTRANSFIN

- stock is rangebound between 930 and 1150
- within this, trend is up
- below 930, next support is 750

Stock watch: SIEMENS

- trend is up on daily charts
- support 1320-1280
- resistance 1450

Swing trading signals :: 08-AUG-2017

Swing trading signals :: 08-AUG-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| AJANTPHARM1298.30-2.50%-13.50%SELL1508.1015551392
||||| ALPHAGEO824.65-1.50%-2.00%SELL900.00900817
||||| ANANTRAJ57.10-6.00%-8.00%SELL71.607258
||||| ANDHRABANK54.25-2.50%-3.50%SELL59.455954
||||| ASTRAMICRO129.45-1.00%-6.00%SELL144.00146134
||||| AXISBANK499.45-1.00%-1.00%SELL547.50548501
||||| BAJAJ-AUTO2911.600.50%4.00%BUY2767.5528692694
||||| BFUTILITIE360.35-2.50%-9.00%SELL410.70411380
||||| BHARATFORG1188.652.00%7.50%BUY1104.0011651091
||||| BHARATWIRE91.50-6.50%-6.50%SELL110.0011092
||||| BHEL134.65-3.00%-3.50%SELL147.50148133
||||| BIRLACORPN969.901.00%10.50%BUY865.00969859
||||| BLS179.10-5.00%-11.50%SELL209.00221187
||||| CENTURYPLY259.50-2.50%-7.50%SELL305.90306278
||||| CENTURYTEX1281.054.50%13.50%BUY1105.1012041104
||||| CGPOWER77.50-6.00%-6.00%SELL86.908781
||||| DATAMATICS105.60-4.50%-11.50%SELL126.70127103
||||| DBL579.207.00%16.50%BUY492.00550449
||||| DCBBANK185.55-5.00%-3.00%SELL206.10206191
||||| DEEPAKNTR159.85-2.50%-7.50%SELL177.70195160
||||| DHANBANK36.75-3.00%-13.00%SELL44.004439
||||| DLF178.60-6.50%-10.00%SELL207.20207190
||||| EDELWEISS238.153.50%25.00%BUY188.25208188
||||| GITANJALI60.90-3.00%-3.00%SELL66.006861
||||| GNFC279.20-3.00%-1.50%SELL316.80317270
||||| GODFRYPHLP1017.45-3.00%-19.00%SELL1280.0013291078
||||| GRANULES126.75-4.00%-9.00%SELL147.50148133
||||| HCC36.95-6.00%-6.50%SELL43.104339
||||| HCL-INSYS45.95-2.00%-6.50%SELL57.355745
||||| HINDALCO234.903.00%17.00%BUY197.70224191
||||| IDBI55.75-2.00%-1.00%SELL62.806353
||||| IDFCBANK56.65-1.50%-8.50%SELL64.806655
||||| IFCI25.25-2.50%-3.00%SELL28.152824
||||| IL&FSTRANS86.50-2.50%-11.00%SELL101.2510489
||||| INFRATEL383.60-3.50%-6.00%SELL425.00425374
||||| IOB24.20-1.50%-3.50%SELL27.452725
||||| IPAPPM299.15-2.50%-0.50%SELL337.70338292
||||| IPCALAB454.05-2.00%-3.50%SELL498.90500465
||||| ITC274.15-2.00%-17.00%SELL339.95355276
||||| J&KBANK79.95-1.50%-6.50%SELL91.909282
||||| JAICORPLTD79.20-3.50%-4.50%SELL92.459278
||||| JAMNAAUTO284.056.50%9.00%BUY253.00278245
||||| JAYBARMARU575.65-1.50%-13.50%SELL747.00747612
||||| JBFIND175.30-13.00%-33.50%SELL288.60289198
||||| JKLAKSHMI440.30-1.00%-5.00%SELL476.55490441
||||| KOHINOOR69.35-2.50%-4.50%SELL78.307871
||||| KOPRAN72.85-5.00%-16.00%SELL89.809082
||||| LAKSHVILAS174.45-1.00%-15.50%SELL206.45210176
||||| LINDEINDIA414.90-2.50%-6.50%SELL478.70479425
||||| MASTEK257.15-5.00%-5.00%SELL397.90398263
||||| MRPL139.005.00%13.00%BUY116.25133116
||||| MTNL18.90-2.50%-10.50%SELL23.102320
||||| NATCOPHARM923.65-3.50%-6.50%SELL1028.051038971
||||| NIITTECH489.20-2.00%-16.50%SELL593.80601510
||||| OMKARCHEM82.10-4.00%-19.50%SELL121.9012276
||||| ONMOBILE61.30-3.50%-12.50%SELL76.357664
||||| ORIENTBANK136.45-2.00%-6.50%SELL160.80161139
||||| RDEL56.50-4.00%-9.00%SELL64.756559
||||| RIIL436.05-2.50%-5.00%SELL484.65486428
||||| ROLTA55.15-2.00%-8.50%SELL63.856552
||||| RPOWER41.80-2.00%-4.00%SELL46.204642
||||| SHK259.60-1.50%-0.50%SELL283.10283258
||||| SOBHA378.40-1.50%-3.00%SELL414.80415366
||||| SPECIALITY124.655.00%4.00%BUY110.8012498
||||| SUNILHITEC12.35-3.50%-5.50%SELL14.351413
||||| SUPREMEIND1049.80-3.50%-13.50%SELL1222.6512401052
||||| SURYAROSNI272.35-3.00%-4.00%SELL296.80298275
||||| SUVEN165.60-1.50%-4.50%SELL176.50177166
||||| SWANENERGY124.65-5.00%-5.50%SELL142.40142127
||||| TANLA33.80-2.50%-13.50%SELL40.904133
||||| TATACOFFEE126.00-1.00%-13.00%SELL147.05150128
||||| TATAPOWER78.25-2.00%-5.50%SELL84.108480
||||| TVSSRICHAK3530.20-2.00%-7.50%SELL3881.9539503601
||||| UFLEX403.45-4.50%-1.50%SELL461.45461383
||||| V2RETAIL279.302.50%16.50%BUY235.10258235
||||| VEDL297.703.00%15.50%BUY256.75284250
||||| VIDEOIND21.55-4.50%-27.00%SELL34.153422
||||| VIJAYABANK67.00-0.50%-9.50%SELL76.807869
||||| WEBELSOLAR109.70-4.50%-7.50%SELL129.40129110