September 26, 2017

Stock watch: TATASTEEL

- trend is down
- on monthly charts, stock has strong res at 700 levels
- this level is 2010-2011 highs
- stock has gained 60% this year

Stock watch: TATAPOWER

- trend is up
- but stock is trading in a big range
- and has barely gained 5% this year
- support 76 (this year's low)
- resistance 86

Stock watch: TATAMOTORS

- trend is down
- next support 360
- deep support 285 levels

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up
- today, NF traded in small range and closed flat
- AD was 2:1
- swing low support at 9700

Why small businessmen in Gujarat are quitting industry and turning to financial speculation

When key industrial sectors such as textiles, metal products, automobiles and chemicals suffer a slowdown, small enterprises supplying to them also struggle. A slowdown in demand is not the only factor weighing them down, though. Take Surat. The textile cluster is under pressure from Chinese imports and the entry of larger companies, both of which are putting margins under pressure. This feeling of insecurity has been exacerbated by demonetisation and the GST, resulting in many units shutting down.

Why is business profitability falling? The fundamental problem  is lack of growth in domestic demand. This has created an outcome where, according to S Ananth, a researcher based in Vijayawada who studies India’s financial markets, companies are sitting on unused capacity, margins are falling and profits are under pressure.

The fallout? Even large companies, said Vipparthi, are investing in financial instruments. Investments in the stock market, directly and through mutual funds, are giving annual returns above 20%, he said. In contrast, industries are generating returns of about 11% and debt instruments such as bonds and debentures are yielding around 6%-7%.


September 25, 2017

The Economy needs a Booster Shot

Wild move in INFIBEAM

- stock is in F&O
- stock tanked from 145 to 90 before recovering
- at one time move was 10% in every 5 min
- this happened for 20-30 minutes

Stock watch: SUNTV

- trend is down
- stock has strong resistance near 855-900

Stock watch: SUNPHARMA

- trend is down
- stock has lost 20% this year
- buy above level is 600
- stock has just bounced off near 3 year lows

Swing trading signals :: 25-SEP-2017

Swing trading signals :: 25-SEP-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| AEGISCHEM231.153.50%25.00%BUY181.95196170
||||| ALKEM1845.552.00%3.50%BUY1734.0018951578
||||| AMARAJABAT737.90-4.00%-4.00%SELL807.00851750
||||| ANANTRAJ54.15-4.50%-4.00%SELL64.006449
||||| APTECHT280.60-3.00%-7.00%SELL326.40326195
||||| AUROPHARMA700.85-3.00%-5.50%SELL776.00750665
||||| BALAJITELE154.60-2.50%-9.00%SELL174.30178144
||||| BALMLAWRIE221.90-2.00%-7.00%SELL249.00255220
||||| BAYERCROP3951.60-0.50%-3.00%SELL4299.0046953901
||||| BEML1673.95-2.50%-6.00%SELL1947.0019191422
||||| BIRLAMONEY85.40-4.50%-4.00%SELL106.1012281
||||| BOSCHLTD21172.55-1.50%-3.00%SELL23211.902518021400
||||| CASTROLIND365.30-2.50%-4.50%SELL399.80404372
||||| CHAMBLFERT137.90-6.00%-7.00%SELL156.40151117
||||| CHENNPETRO409.55-1.00%-1.50%SELL467.00450364
||||| CHOLAFIN1096.75-3.50%-5.00%SELL1200.4512201109
||||| COFFEEDAY212.25-7.50%-13.00%SELL255.25251231
||||| COLPAL1084.85-1.00%-1.00%SELL1178.3511191028
||||| CRISIL1816.05-1.50%-3.50%SELL1920.0018971785
||||| CROMPTON207.05-1.50%-5.50%SELL226.95232211
||||| DBREALTY35.25-2.50%-4.50%SELL42.404532
||||| DREDGECORP558.15-3.00%-6.00%SELL629.45639542
||||| GESHIP380.850.00%-2.50%SELL429.50402361
||||| GHCL212.40-3.00%-7.00%SELL246.00246218
||||| GICHSGFIN500.15-4.00%-7.00%SELL557.80549466
||||| GMRINFRA16.45-1.50%-5.50%SELL18.551915
||||| GODFRYPHLP964.85-5.00%-8.00%SELL1085.001140830
||||| GRANULES119.55-2.00%-8.00%SELL135.90139101
||||| GSKCONS4952.25-0.50%-7.50%SELL5450.0056005251
||||| GUJFLUORO687.60-2.00%-6.50%SELL751.90825698
||||| GVKPIL11.40-1.50%-6.00%SELL12.851411
||||| HCC33.10-5.00%-4.50%SELL38.954233
||||| HEXAWARE264.95-1.00%-3.00%SELL284.20282242
||||| ICICIPRULI388.90-3.50%-9.50%SELL451.25459402
||||| IDBI53.15-1.50%-5.00%SELL58.006150
||||| IDEA76.05-2.50%-15.00%SELL91.459585
||||| IL&FSTRANS72.45-3.00%-13.00%SELL83.409373
||||| INDIACEM167.50-4.50%-7.00%SELL198.00208168
||||| INDIANB264.30-2.50%-10.00%SELL296.75316263
||||| INFIBEAM119.85-16.00%-17.00%SELL160.15156125
||||| INOXWIND112.75-3.00%-13.50%SELL137.60141105
||||| IOC399.00-2.00%-9.00%SELL462.95463366
||||| ITC262.25-2.00%-7.00%SELL284.35290270
||||| JPINFRATEC12.85-4.50%-17.50%SELL18.802314
||||| JSWSTEEL236.85-4.00%-3.00%SELL271.80260215
||||| KANSAINER464.85-2.50%-1.50%SELL530.00530427
||||| KOPRAN67.85-5.50%-5.50%SELL80.558465
||||| KRIDHANINF79.75-4.00%-6.00%SELL96.409675
||||| KSL402.45-3.50%-3.50%SELL438.45465390
||||| KTKBANK147.25-3.00%-3.00%SELL164.40156133
||||| M&M1260.00-2.00%-8.00%SELL1388.5514341333
||||| M&MFIN403.80-1.50%-3.00%SELL455.55435386
||||| MAGMA162.85-5.00%-7.00%SELL192.00186165
||||| MAHSEAMLES396.95-3.00%-6.00%SELL460.00431375
||||| MAITHANALL483.00-2.00%-3.00%SELL551.05551402
||||| MANALIPETC32.75-3.50%-1.00%SELL38.453730
||||| MANINFRA59.40-3.50%-5.50%SELL71.206859
||||| MASTEK279.20-2.00%-5.50%SELL314.70311231
||||| MERCATOR37.10-4.50%-9.00%SELL44.654537
||||| MHRIL339.60-3.00%-6.50%SELL377.90410338
||||| MRPL123.25-3.00%-3.50%SELL143.55141114
||||| NATHBIOGEN373.25-2.50%-0.50%SELL458.90422306
||||| NCC83.50-1.50%-3.00%SELL93.209276
||||| NEULANDLAB990.25-4.00%-19.00%SELL1425.0014691192
||||| NHPC27.15-2.50%-7.00%SELL29.503129
||||| NLCINDIA90.00-1.50%-2.00%SELL104.0010391
||||| NMDC120.50-1.00%-1.50%SELL138.50130116
||||| PARAGMILK230.50-3.50%-6.00%SELL262.10262220
||||| PCJEWELLER335.45-1.50%-5.00%SELL370.35396250
||||| PHOENIXLTD472.20-3.00%-9.50%SELL530.00553468
||||| PIDILITIND805.65-1.00%-3.50%SELL868.45844775
||||| PNBHOUSING1513.55-3.00%-4.50%SELL1717.6517181427
||||| PRESTIGE251.20-5.00%-4.50%SELL284.80277241
||||| RAMCOIND237.45-4.00%-10.00%SELL291.60276218
||||| RBL1136.45-5.00%-3.50%SELL1348.0013621124
||||| SELAN180.65-3.00%-9.50%SELL210.00207157
||||| SHILPI19.80-4.50%-23.50%SELL26.603523
||||| SHOPERSTOP500.4019.50%40.50%BUY350.10372325
||||| SMLISUZU889.15-3.00%-9.50%SELL998.801135903
||||| SPECIALITY109.75-3.50%-5.50%SELL130.80128109
||||| SPTL92.00-3.50%-16.00%SELL111.35136101
||||| TATAELXSI813.20-4.00%-2.50%SELL921.70880791
||||| THERMAX845.80-3.50%-5.50%SELL969.80935852
||||| UBL857.856.00%4.50%BUY775.25859779
||||| ULTRACEMCO3901.80-2.00%-2.00%SELL4244.0041393842
||||| WABAG598.60-3.00%-1.00%SELL650.00653591
||||| WELCORP124.65-3.50%-8.50%SELL146.00141105

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 1% in negative
- AD was 1:4
- some signs of buying visible in NF at lower levels
- swing low support 9700

Neowave analysis of markets

...As per NEoWave, a larger falling segment could be a sign of maturity of the rally. The question, therefore, is whether the 25-day rally from 11th Aug to 19th Sep’17 is now over, i.e. whether upward “g” is over.


To confirm that “g” has indeed ended as a “Bow-Tie Diametric”, we require faster retracement of the 25-day Aug-Sep rally, i.e. fall below 11th Aug low of 31128 (Nifty 9685) in the next 24 days.


However, if the current fall avoids a faster retracement of Aug-Sep rally, and stops near the bottom of lower-degree b-leg of “g”, i.e. above 4th Sep low of 31560 (Nifty 9861), then the alternate White label scenario of “g” still developing as a “Diamond-Shaped Diametric”, could turn valid.


The “g” leg is last leg of any Diametric. If the “g” leg has ended, then the larger Diametric from Dec’16 has also ended, and that too, as a “Failure” on Sensex, though not on Nifty.

As per NEoWave, faster retracement of last leg of rally is a sign that rallying structure may be over, and another structure in an opposite direction is opening.

...

NSE Advance Decline Line

Posting this after quite some time... no change in earlier views... rally lacks support of broader market.

Ahead of RBI policy, govt building case for rate cut to revive economy

Experts have attributed the slowdown to the note ban in November last year and destocking by companies before the goods and services tax (GST) roll-out on July 1 this year.

With the criticism of the slowdown gaining in volume, top policymakers in the government have held a number of meetings to brainstorm on ways to revive the economy, boost exports, spur investments, and create jobs for the millions entering the workforce every year.


September 24, 2017

My experience in opening a trading account online then and now

I have been trading a while with Upstox (formerly RKSV). This account was opened online I think 2-3 years ago. The process was fairly simple - you fill in a form online with all details. Once completed, the form is emailed to you so you can take a printout. Then sign and courier the form with whatever supporting documents and your account is set up in few days.

Fair enough... it was revolutionary then but no big deal.

Recently I created a trading account for my daughter and noticed a huge change in procedure. The key difference was PAN / Aadhaar card number was used to autopopulate the application form. In addition, certain mandatory documents like PAN card, cancelled cheque, ITR return was to be scanned and uploaded online.

Now the application workflow uses OCR technology (nothing new but very relevant in the application process) to recognise the characters in the scan to verify if the document uploaded is correct or not. Similarly, the cancelled cheque scan had a automatic check to confirm IFSC code, account no and verification that name on cheque matches the real name on application.

The process was not without hiccups though but after 2-3 attempts it went through.

Lastly, the application was digitally signed using OTP on mobile number associated with the Aadhar card.

The OCR use and digital signing was truly revolutionary... there was no print out required, no physical signatures and no couriering of documents.

Now this has serious implications going forward. The technology eliminates a huge amount of physical processes and reduces time substantially. It also ensures clean information and no fooling around.

I think with all these innovations, banking and financial services industry will no longer be the same. This has huge negative implication for PSU banks who are slow in modernising while at same time creating opportunities for  tech savvy banks in the future.

September 23, 2017

Is our economy like Goli Soda?

Those of us in our sixties, including our prime minister, will remember the goli soda.

You used a little wooden gizmo to push in a marble stuck in the mouth of a bottle and guzzled the sweet, fizzy drink with the marble dancing around inside. Then you felt full and happy. But it was mostly gas. 

It’s feeling a lot like that these days, and PM Narendra Modi must have a tough time keeping our spirits up. Every few days there is a saccharine shot, but let’s face it – we are in the doldrums.

Read more at:

Why waste money on bullet trains? Solve this problem first

My daughter - when she starts going to work will not travel from Mumbai to Ahmedabad everyday.

But she will be forced to travel in these trains in Mumbai.

GOI ... solve these problems first.

Image result for mumbai local train travel ladies

And if you have a son, this is what you can expect.

Image result for mumbai local train travel

And if your kid does well in life (whatever it means), one can expect to travel in this:

Image result for mumbai traffic jam

Big HINT: building more flyovers or bullet trains is not the solution!

Will India become Japan in train travel?

GARIB hashtag on Twitter

Disclaimer: all posts from twitter... none attributable to me.


Petroleum Minister blames hurricanes in US for price increase in fuel prices

Height of stupidity... are we that stupid to believe this shit?

When crude prices tanked globally, what prevented the govt from passing the benefits to Indians?


Speaking to the media, Pradhan said, "The prices have started decreasing. The prices have even gone down in the past two days."

He cited the hurricanes in the United States IMRA and Harvey as a reason for the instability in the petroleum market and the hike in fuel prices.



NIFTY weekly technicals

- trend is up on weekly charts
- swing low support at 9700
- note big red bar has not been retraced so far
- resistance 10200