September 30, 2017

Forget bullet train, just give Mumbai safe and functioning infrastructure

What use is the bullet train if we can't even build a simple bridge or staircase to a railway station?

The Elphinstone station tragedy need not have occurred at all.

Repeated warnings and 100+ tweets  to the government have fallen on deaf ears.

How many more deaths before the government wakes up from it's slumber?

Aache din kab ayenge?


NIFTY and BANKNIFTY monthly charts

- trend is up
- market undergoing sideways correction of most recent blue candlestick



BANKNIFTY monthly chart

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 23800

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 9700
- NF undergoing sideways correction
- below 9700, expect 9200
- above 10200, expect 10700

September 29, 2017

Weekly charts looking bullish

 Assumption/ Condition:
- NF closes near day's high
- current chart does not worsen
- Monday's holiday does not get cancelled

Pattern:
- hammer with buying at lower levels (long tail) (I am long from morning)

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed marginally in positive
- though opening was nice, markets rallied and sold off later in the day
- AD was positive at 2:1
- VIX down 5%
- swing low/ option writing support at 9700

Nifty can Bounce Above 10178 in Coming Days – Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty opened almost flat at 9736 and declined to register day’s low 9687 but bounced from lower levels by 100 points to register day’s high 9789 before closing 33 points up at 9768.

Yesterday, I explained that an Irregular correction is about to completed in 9695-9619 range after which there is a possibility of sharp bounce for new high above 10178.I suggested to exit all shorts and avoid fresh shorts until we get any confident bearish pattern and suggested to buying 10000 Oct call to hold till further updates. Nifty entered in 9695-9619 range and bounced back by 100 points. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/nifty-can-bounce-above-10178-in-coming-days-elliott-wave-analysis/

September 28, 2017

Stock watch: TITAN

- trend turned down today
- next support 555 resistance 650
- correction is from all time highs

Stock watch: TECHM

- trend is up
- support 420
- stock is consolidating on monthly charts

Stock watch: TCS

- trend is up
- support 2420
- stock is flat on monthly charts
- stock has given no returns in 4 years

Sell signal on BANKNIFTY

- yesterday, there was a sell signal on bank nifty with the kplswing indicator
- this is the first signal ever since rally started from 19000 levels
- new signal after a long profitable trade tend to whipsaw
- reason is the index can settle in a range

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat but above 9700
- AD was 3:2 and VIX dropped 5%
- technical pullback or relief rally of 200-300 points possible
- immediate support 9700

Another nice post on risk management

...If you are risking 5% of your capital per trade and have a win/loss ratio of 50%, during the next three years of active trading you will experience a 30% drawdown at least 15 times. Sound fun?

Just so you know, most people who trade for a living risk less than 1% of their capital in a trade, 2% in a maximum commitment.

I will have more to say about risk management in the coming weeks, but for the 26% of respondents who reported risking more than 5% of their capital per trade, let me say just two words to you — you’re history! The 50% of respondents who risk less than 2% of their capital per trade have a fighting chance.



Read more at https://www.peterlbrandt.com/your-mean-risk-per-trade-is-3-2-you-are-crazy

Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 1 lakh in next 10 years

Morgan Stanley expects the benchmark Sensex to cross the 1 lakh-mark by 2028, making it one of the the top five equity markets in the world with a market capitalisation of $6.1 trillion.

"We think India's stock market could be among the world's best performers in the next ten years, leading to India's market cap rising from $2 trillion to $6 trillion."

"We see the BSE Sensex crossing the 100,000 mark, albeit the bulk of the returns are likely to be front ended in  ..

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/60862387.cms

Why so much micromanaging? Goes against ease of doing business

At a time when small businesses and corner shops are struggling to make money, the government comes out with a plan to stop cigarette and paan bidi shops selling biscuits, softdrinks etc.

The health ministry had on September 21 sent letters asking state governments to develop a mechanism by which shops will need permission from municipal authorities to sell tobacco products. The letter, which ET has seen, also asks states to prohibit such shops from selling non-tobacco products such as sweets, chips, biscuits and soft drinks in a move to prevent children and those who don’t use tobacco from exposure to such products.

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/60861533.cms

My question: in mumbai, these small shops also sell batteries, snacks, shampoo / washing powder sachets, toothpaste etc. This is a need which small businesses fulfill.

It is not possible for many cigarrete/ paan bidi shop to survive solely on 2-3 products. These will eventually be forced to shut shop or do business under the table (more likely).

If government is so serious about health of its citizens, why not simply ban these products? One can also ban biscuits, snacks, fast food/ junk food, softdrinks. These are unhealthy and harmful.

Taxes on petro products fetch government Rs 2.67 lakh crore

..according to the government's response to an RTI application, even as the money in the common man's pockets seems to have developed wings, it is the government coffers that are benefiting from the high prices of petroleum products.

During the financial year 2016-2017, the government earned a whopping Rs 2.67 lakh crore revenue on account of several increases in indirect taxes (Excise, Customs and import duties) on such products.

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/60845930.cms

The Need for Advice Never Goes Away

You’re a young person just beginning to invest. You dream of someday having a large portfolio – $1 million, $5 million, $10 million invested. Do you think you’d be at peace then? Do you think you’d be calm or satisfied?

I can tell you from experience that you won’t be any of these things.

You’re an older investor who has done well in the markets over years and decades. You dream of a peaceful period for your holdings and a dwindling of volatility. And then we get into 2017 – a year in which, so far, we have experienced the lowest maximum S&P 500 drawdown in the history of the index. That’s a fact – 2017’s biggest dip this year is just under 3% from the high – this is unprecedented. We’ve never been in such seemingly safe circumstances.

Are you now at peace, then?

Absolutely not. At least, you’re not at peace if you’re rational. This cannot continue forever and you know this. Today’s “safe circumstances” cannot bring you confidence once your mind has been shocked. And in the last twenty years, it’s been shocked plenty.

This permanent condition of the human mind is why god sent advisors into the world. And this demonstrates amply why the need for advice never goes away.

Read more at http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/09/27/the-need-for-advice-never-goes-away

Sell signal on nifty with kplswing indicator

The kplswing indicator has given a sell signal on nifty today.

There is a good chance of a whipsaw as markets are rangebound for sometime. At times like this, it is normal for the indicator to give a sell near a support or a buy signal near a resistance.



September 27, 2017

Swing trading signals :: 27-SEP-2017

Swing trading signals :: 27-SEP-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABFRL153.05-3.50%-9.50%SELL184.40180161
||||| ACC1589.75-2.50%-12.00%SELL1869.9518381712
||||| ADANIPORTS372.55-4.50%-4.00%SELL414.70422370
||||| ADANIPOWER29.10-3.50%-9.00%SELL33.653426
||||| AJANTPHARM1145.30-4.50%-3.50%SELL1297.6514151135
||||| ALBK65.80-2.50%-3.00%SELL74.207663
||||| ANANTRAJ52.60-4.00%-5.00%SELL64.006449
||||| APOLLOTYRE241.70-2.50%-2.50%SELL269.00288246
||||| ARCOTECH80.35-3.50%-11.00%SELL103.9510481
||||| AUROPHARMA689.70-2.50%-6.00%SELL776.00750665
||||| BALMLAWRIE217.00-1.00%-9.50%SELL249.00255220
||||| BANKINDIA138.25-4.00%-3.00%SELL157.80168137
||||| BASF1410.30-1.00%-5.50%SELL1617.4515201360
||||| BAYERCROP3897.70-1.00%-3.00%SELL4299.0046953901
||||| BEML1643.55-2.50%-5.00%SELL1947.0019191422
||||| BGRENERGY130.10-4.50%-3.00%SELL155.00152123
||||| BHEL124.65-2.00%-2.00%SELL145.85147121
||||| BRIGADE244.05-2.50%-7.50%SELL276.00285239
||||| CADILAHC454.30-4.00%-9.50%SELL519.45553435
||||| CARERATING1311.50-5.00%-13.50%SELL1539.9516401434
||||| CHAMBLFERT135.70-2.00%-7.00%SELL156.40151117
||||| COLPAL1061.60-1.50%-3.50%SELL1178.3511191028
||||| CUB149.70-3.00%-5.50%SELL174.20178149
||||| CYIENT485.95-7.50%-8.00%SELL539.00538485
||||| DBREALTY34.95-3.00%-5.00%SELL42.404532
||||| DEEPAKFERT358.50-5.00%-5.00%SELL398.00403316
||||| DHAMPURSUG256.15-1.00%-2.50%SELL280.50289220
||||| DLF159.95-5.00%-12.50%SELL198.60196153
||||| DREDGECORP543.80-2.50%-6.50%SELL629.45639542
||||| DWARKESH61.55-3.00%-8.00%SELL70.407651
||||| EICHERMOT30470.20-1.00%-1.50%SELL33480.003244929135
||||| EMAMIINFRA168.70-3.00%-13.50%SELL205.35202127
||||| FLFL320.15-2.50%-11.00%SELL412.00389308
||||| FORTIS144.90-1.50%-6.00%SELL158.40169126
||||| GANESHHOUC111.90-3.00%-15.00%SELL146.90149120
||||| GESHIP373.80-2.50%-3.50%SELL429.50402361
||||| GHCL204.95-2.00%-14.50%SELL245.50246218
||||| GMDCLTD134.70-1.00%-3.50%SELL151.80146129
||||| GMRINFRA15.95-3.50%-7.00%SELL18.551915
||||| GRASIM1117.55-1.00%-4.50%SELL1276.4512001040
||||| GULFOILLUB759.25-2.50%-5.00%SELL858.00845774
||||| HAVELLS476.15-3.00%-1.50%SELL521.45502454
||||| HCC32.20-2.50%-6.50%SELL38.954233
||||| HDFC1719.35-1.00%-2.00%SELL1802.0017991681
||||| HDIL54.25-3.00%-12.50%SELL67.858847
||||| HEIDELBERG119.75-2.00%-3.00%SELL132.00130109
||||| HEXAWARE260.20-3.00%-5.00%SELL284.20282242
||||| HINDCOPPER56.80-2.50%-8.50%SELL66.507359
||||| ICIL95.85-5.50%-16.50%SELL127.8015096
||||| IDBI52.20-2.00%-5.50%SELL58.006150
||||| INDIANB256.30-2.50%-11.50%SELL295.75316263
||||| INOXWIND109.65-2.50%-17.50%SELL136.60141105
||||| ITC258.50-1.50%-8.00%SELL284.35290270
||||| ITI150.554.00%52.50%BUY90.5510272
||||| J&KBANK73.30-1.00%-8.50%SELL82.008571
||||| JINDALPOLY360.85-2.50%-3.50%SELL414.20416355
||||| JINDWORLD815.00-8.00%-7.00%SELL1006.40908750
||||| JPASSOCIAT15.55-5.00%-34.50%SELL24.953019
||||| KOPRAN66.20-3.00%-4.50%SELL80.558465
||||| KSL393.15-2.50%-5.00%SELL438.45465390
||||| KTKBANK142.00-2.50%-5.00%SELL164.40156133
||||| L&TFH188.10-4.00%-4.50%SELL212.90203159
||||| LICHSGFIN606.25-2.00%-8.50%SELL689.55699634
||||| M&M1232.00-1.00%-9.00%SELL1360.3014341333
||||| MAHINDCIE224.50-3.50%-5.50%SELL266.40253228
||||| MAHSEAMLES391.50-2.50%-8.00%SELL460.00431375
||||| MANINFRA57.45-2.50%-10.50%SELL71.206859
||||| MCDOWELL-N2404.90-2.00%-5.50%SELL2722.9526602415
||||| MCX1024.50-3.00%-3.50%SELL1153.001133980
||||| MEP90.65-8.50%-21.50%SELL125.0012896
||||| MERCK1011.00-1.50%-14.00%SELL1278.9012751084
||||| MFSL587.80-3.00%-1.50%SELL652.90630577
||||| MMTC55.75-2.50%-0.50%SELL64.306254
||||| MOREPENLAB15.85-2.50%-3.00%SELL21.601915
||||| NBVENTURES118.70-1.50%-2.00%SELL138.90139118
||||| NFL59.50-3.00%-14.00%SELL69.807162
||||| NHPC26.85-1.00%-7.50%SELL29.503129
||||| NIFTYBEES1006.22-0.50%-1.00%SELL1050.001044966
||||| NLCINDIA89.30-0.50%-4.00%SELL104.0010391
||||| ORIENTBANK121.40-3.00%-3.50%SELL137.75149116
||||| PEL2608.70-2.50%-3.50%SELL2930.3030272536
||||| PNB132.65-2.50%-6.50%SELL147.30164136
||||| PNBGILTS46.25-3.00%-15.50%SELL57.955649
||||| PNBHOUSING1412.05-5.50%-16.00%SELL1695.0017181427
||||| PRAJIND65.65-4.00%-4.00%SELL74.157866
||||| RALLIS207.60-3.00%-8.50%SELL232.95248218
||||| RCOM19.05-3.50%-16.00%SELL23.952720
||||| RELCAPITAL584.70-5.50%-25.00%SELL879.90818714
||||| RELIGARE35.60-4.00%-33.50%SELL54.1010849
||||| RUPA392.55-3.00%-18.50%SELL488.80503385
||||| SAIL54.20-4.00%-12.00%SELL64.456555
||||| SBIN250.40-3.00%-9.00%SELL280.40315271
||||| SELAN177.60-4.50%-11.00%SELL210.00207157
||||| SHRIRAMCIT2010.25-3.00%-4.00%SELL2201.0023902053
||||| SIEMENS1219.35-7.50%-4.50%SELL1453.5014451242
||||| SPARC359.45-3.00%-8.00%SELL425.70431325
||||| SPTL89.60-3.50%-14.00%SELL111.35136101
||||| STAR879.75-3.00%-3.00%SELL1041.101075865
||||| STCINDIA155.00-2.50%-1.50%SELL182.70182146
||||| SUZLON15.80-2.00%-3.50%SELL17.501914
||||| UCOBANK30.10-1.50%-2.00%SELL33.303529
||||| UJJIVAN319.00-3.00%-10.50%SELL381.30374285
||||| ULTRACEMCO3798.50-2.50%-5.00%SELL4244.0041393842
||||| VETO200.40-2.00%-6.50%SELL224.70236194
||||| VGUARD178.70-3.50%-2.50%SELL204.90188165