October 20, 2017

1987 crash seen from a different perspective

Remember my post on the Oct 19, 1987 crash when the US markets lost 22% in a single day?

This is the same chart (log scale) and when zoomed out.

Video: Soyuz undocking, reentry and landing explained

An excellent video for the space enthusiast or the technically inclined.

Brain in a vat

The "Brain in a vatoutlines a scenario in which a mad scientist, machine, or other entity might remove a person's brain from the body, suspend it in a vat of life-sustaining liquid, and connect its neurons by wires to a supercomputer which would provide it with electrical impulses identical to those the brain normally receives.

The computer would then be simulating reality (including appropriate responses to the brain's own output) and the "disembodied" brain would continue to have perfectly normal conscious experiences, such as those of a person with an embodied brain, without these being related to objects or events in the real world.

Since the brain in a vat gives and receives exactly the same impulses as it would if it were in a skull, and since these are its only way of interacting with its environment, then it is not possible to tell, from the perspective of that brain, whether it is in a human body or a vat. Yet in the first case most of the person's beliefs may be true (if they believe, say, that they are walking down the street, or eating ice-cream); in the latter case their beliefs are false.

Since the argument says one cannot know whether one is a brain in a vat, then one cannot know whether most of one's beliefs might be completely false. Since, in principle, it is impossible to rule out oneself being a brain in a vat, there cannot be good grounds for believing any of the things one believes; a skeptical argument would contend that one certainly cannot know them, raising issues with the definition of knowledge.

The brain in a vat is a contemporary version of the argument given in Hindu Maya illusion.

Read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_in_a_vat

No Indian institute among top 200 world universities, experts worried

Experts have voiced concern over not a single Indian educational institution figuring in the coveted top 200 list of the Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2016-17, released on Wednesday.

India aced the rankings as far as South Asia was concerned, but only two universities from the country – the Indian Institute of Science-Bangalore (201-250 group) and the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay (351-400 group) – could be seen in the top 400 of the 980-institution list. While the premier Bangalore institute moved up significantly in the list (it was in the 251-300 group last year), other establishments like IIT-Delhi, IIT-Kanpur and IIT-Madras figured somewhere between ranks 401 and 500. IIT-Kharagpur and IIT-Roorkee, for their part, appeared in the 501-600 band.

India has 19 institutes in the top 800, two more than last year, and 12 others between 801 and 980.

Though we may pat ourselves on the back because a record 31 Indian educational institutions – including 14 new names – have made it to the list, the picture does not look as rosy when we take the total area and population of India into consideration.

View from Pakistan - declining standards in education, lack of critical thinking

TWO quotes from physicist Richard Feynman set the stage. “There is no learning without having to pose a question. And a question requires doubt.”

“I can live with doubt, and uncertainty. I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.”

Higher education has been in the news in Pakistan. When rankings of universities are revealed we find none of our universities are in the top few hundred. When CSS examination results are announced, the dismal performance of candidates elicits comments about the poor quality of our higher education. When university graduates are found amongst the ranks of extremists and fundamentalists, questions are raised about what they are being taught, if anything, in universities. When the quality of research publications is talked about, our universities are found to be wanting. When internationally known academics are ranked, we get to know that we do not have even a few working out of Pakistan.

Read more at https://www.dawn.com/news/1364911/thinking-critically-really

The steamy adventures of a sauna addict

Image result for finnish sauna
I became a sauna addict early on. The first hurdle was to come to terms with being naked with strangers of all shapes, sizes and age. Once you realize that no one cares about that, it’s easy.

Then there’s the heat. Finns are proud of their sauna tradition—the earliest written accounts of Finnish saunas are from the 1100s—and although saunas are popular in other parts of northern Europe, Finns think theirs are the best.

The early wood saunas used to be in pits in the sides of hills in woods and Lapland still has wood-fired saunas in the middle of forests. Now, most saunas, especially the ones in people’s homes, have electric stoves, which are good, but not quite the same as wood-fired ones. There are new-fangled infrared saunas too but a true Finn would sneer at them.

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Leisure/UGIxRMoGb64zqzk1Qdam9J/The-steamy-adventures-of-a-sauna-addict.html

Ahead of Diwali, good news for Indian economy

Data ranging from cooling of inflation to a rebound in exports and factory output suggest a favourable shift in the economic climate, recovering from the disruption caused by rollout of goods and services tax (GST) and the aftershocks of the Narendra Modi government’s demonetisation move. The trend gives optimism to experts for an uptick in economic growth rate in the coming quarters.

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Politics/1NEng6olk1ewL9wbHNpVGP/Series-of-data-deliver-good-news-for-economy.html

Gujarat Model Is Nothing But a Jugglery of Words,’ Says Former Gujarat CM

Even as the BJP is gearing up to use the ‘Gujarat model of development’ in the upcoming assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as its USP, former BJP chief minister of the state Suresh Mehta, who has had a long-standing political career there ending in 2002, has come down heavily on its industrial model. In an interview with The Wire, he listed the failures of successive Gujarat governments over the past decade.

Citing the government’s own data, he also questioned the priorities of the Gujarat model, which he says favours only the rich.

Read more at https://thewire.in/188030/suresh-mehta-gujarat-model-interview/

At 2.5 million, India tops list of pollution-linked deaths: Study

At a time when India’s capital city has been enveloped by a blanket of smog with air quality ranging between ‘severe’ and ‘very poor’ post Diwali celebration, a study has found that the country occupies the top spot globally in terms of pollution-related deaths in 2015.

According to a report in The Lancet medical journal, pollution caused nine million deaths in 2015 – three times more than AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined.

India accounted for 2.5 million of those deaths – also topping the list of deaths linked to polluted air (1.81 million) and water (0.64 million) – with China following close behind at 1.8 million.

The study carried out by The Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health states that one in six of all deaths worldwide are caused by pollution with the vast majority – over 90% – occurring in developing and rapidly industrialising countries such as India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Madagascar and Kenya.

Read more at https://thewire.in/188918/2-5-million-india-topped-global-chart-pollution-related-deaths-2015-finds-study/

Revised Maslow's hierarchy of needs

October 19, 2017

Some breakouts and breakdowns

63MOONS chart

Nick Bostrom: Are we living in a simulation?

At least one of the following propositions is true: 
- the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;
- any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);
- we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation.

Read the scientific paper at https://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

In simple but more words:

Many works of science fiction as well as some forecasts by serious technologists and futurologists predict that enormous amounts of computing power will be available in the future. Let us suppose for a moment that these predictions are correct.

One thing that later generations might do with their super-powerful computers is run detailed simulations of their forebears or of people like their forebears. Because their computers would be so powerful, they could run a great many such simulations. Suppose that these simulated people are conscious (as they would be if the simulations were sufficiently fine-grained and if a certain quite widely accepted position in the philosophy of mind is correct). Then it could be the case that the vast majority of minds like ours do not belong to the original race but rather to people simulated by the advanced descendants of an original race.

It is then possible to argue that, if this were the case, we would be rational to think that we are likely among the simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones. Therefore, if we don’t think that we are currently living in a computer simulation, we are not entitled to believe that we will have descendants who will run lots of such simulations of their forebears.

NOTE: In ancient Indian philosophy this is called Maya - a concept I am a big fan of. I believe everything is an illusion and that it is not possible for the human mind to ever know the reality.

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week, NF formed a small doji near all time highs
- this is a truncated week with a 4 day weekend
- support 9700


BANK NIFTY weekly technicals

- trend is up
- index is stuck in a range
- index is looking weaker than the nifty index
- support 23800

On this day, 30 years ago, the US markets lost 22% in a single day

Image result for 1987 crash

On Monday, October 19, 1987, stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell exactly 508 points to 1,738.74 (22.61%). In Australia and New Zealand, the 1987 crash is also referred to as "Black Tuesday" because of the time zone difference.

The cause of the stock market crash of 1987 was primarily program trading, used by institutions to protect themselves from significant market weakness. Some secondary factors included excessive valuations, illiquid markets and market psychology.

October 18, 2017

Happy Diwali - celebrate the festival of lights with lights.

Image result for diwali village

Swing trading signals :: 18-OCT-2017

Swing trading signals :: 18-OCT-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABB1335.95-0.50%-7.00%SELL1493.0014931299
||||| ASTEC568.65-2.50%-4.00%SELL640.00675567
||||| AXISBANK464.50-9.00%-10.50%SELL534.65526488
||||| BATAINDIA801.702.00%9.00%BUY668.50750668
||||| BRITANNIA4685.851.50%7.00%BUY4232.6044094151
||||| BSE965.10-0.50%-5.00%SELL1039.001039969
||||| CENTURYTEX1342.702.50%3.00%BUY1203.1013341203
||||| DCW47.606.00%21.50%BUY33.504133
||||| DENABANK28.15-6.50%-9.00%SELL33.603430
||||| FEDDERELEC91.9012.50%28.00%BUY65.507766
||||| GET&D375.15-0.50%-8.50%SELL425.90433377
||||| GHCL259.204.50%12.50%BUY204.00243204
||||| GMDCLTD155.605.50%4.00%BUY132.00152132
||||| GNFC443.752.00%30.50%BUY295.40348295
||||| GREAVESCOT129.20-1.00%-8.00%SELL142.25160133
||||| HEXAWARE285.051.50%2.00%BUY259.00284259
||||| IBULHSGFIN1358.402.00%3.50%BUY1155.0013371155
||||| ICICIBANK263.15-3.50%-10.50%SELL292.85300269
||||| IFBIND858.305.50%18.00%BUY689.95745689
||||| IGL1573.755.00%6.00%BUY1390.5515241253
||||| INDNIPPON1329.0518.50%21.00%BUY985.001216806
||||| JBFIND235.7018.50%44.50%BUY150.00192150
||||| JSLHISAR215.604.50%13.50%BUY163.20209163
||||| JUBILANT635.80-1.00%-9.00%SELL706.50723638
||||| JUSTDIAL426.603.50%3.50%BUY360.10419360
||||| LINCOLN196.053.00%23.50%BUY155.90184150
||||| MGL1198.903.00%6.50%BUY1041.6011841037
||||| MOIL231.1512.00%12.00%BUY179.70213180
||||| NCC94.304.50%4.50%BUY81.109381
||||| NUCLEUS375.0514.50%22.50%BUY293.10322275
||||| OMAXE205.301.00%2.00%BUY193.95204193
||||| PENIND69.2517.50%7.50%BUY56.206756
||||| RAMKY150.706.00%45.50%BUY92.3510690
||||| RELIANCE914.504.50%9.00%BUY779.10872779
||||| SBIN243.75-2.50%-8.50%SELL272.05280250
||||| TORNTPHARM1386.454.00%9.50%BUY1201.6013641147

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- AD was negative
- swing low support 9700
- option writing support 10000

- has a cluster island reversal formed over 3 bars?
- gap down opening below 10175 (10200 F) can lead to correction

Sharekhan's Diwali 2017 picks - model portfolio

Morgan Stanley: Boosted By Digitisation, GST, India To Be Third-Largest Economy In World By 2027

Digitisation of India’s cash-bound economy and tax reforms can accelerate expansion and propel the country forward to become one of the world's fastest-growing large economies over the next 10 years, a new report from Morgan Stanley Research has said.

Endorsing the government’s string of bold economic initiatives that are aimed at delivering benefits in the long run, the report said India was already on its way to growing at a brisk pace over the next decade, buoyed by demographics, reforms and globalisation.

“The country was already on a strong trajectory, but digitisation puts India's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth on track to compound annually by more than 10 per cent in US dollar terms over the coming decade," says Anil Agarwal, head of Asian Financial Research at Morgan Stanley.

“The result could be a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.”

Read more at https://swarajyamag.com/economy/morgan-stanley-boosted-by-digitisation-gst-india-to-be-third-largest-economy-in-world-by-2027

The search for the 9th planet

Image result for planet ninePlanet Nine (orX) is a hypothetical large planet in the far outer Solar System, the gravitational effects of which would explain the improbable orbital configuration of a group of trans-Neptunian objects  that orbit mostly beyond the Kuiper belt.

Planet Nine is not discovered as yet. The prediction is based on detailed mathematical modeling and computer simulations, not direct observation.

Some basic properties we know:
- it is not visible to the naked eye
- but the effects on nearby objects are visible
- mass is 5 to 10 times of the earth
- highly elliptical orbit with a orbital period of 15000 to 20000 years

The existence of Planet Nine would help to explain why all eight major solar system planets are tilted by about 6 degrees, compared to the Sun's equator.

Planet Nine would also solve why our Solar System is considered unusual, in regards to the lack of planets with masses between that of Earth and that of Neptune, when compared to other planetary systems.

Read more at :

NOTE: the actual discovery and then the confirmation will take years as everyone has to agree.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: the best is yet to come

October 17, 2017

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 17-OCT-2017 

Simple rules

  • This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
  • Consider trend as UP when a stock gives a breakout above last month's high
  • To lock in gains, use a trailing SL (last month's low or last 2-3 weeks low)
  • Expect half the trades to (statistically) fail so manage the risk management in every trade
  • Limit risk per trade to maximum of 1% of your capital
  • In case of narrow ranges, consider the bigger / previous trading range as breakout levels
  • Pay attention to large bar breakout days or one day large reversal bars.
63MOONS chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- AD was flat while VIX increased 3%
- swing low support 9700
- option writing support 10000

Donald Trump preparing for war against N Korea

N Korea has this ... one is enough

Related image

Example of under-reporting of income pre GST

Money raised via IPOs over the years

Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 16 Oct 2017 Onward

Nifty opened higher at 10123 and traded with huge strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounced more than 90 points to register life time high 10191 and finally closed 71 points up at 10167. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Friday, short term and medium term outlook was bullish for bounce above 10178 in coming days. Trading strategy was “Buying on Dip” until Nifty achieves 10178 with 10066 as immediate breakeven point on downside. Nifty achieved new life time high above 10178 on Friday which we calculated 2 weeks before near 9700. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-outlook-of-nifty-for-16-oct-2017-onward/

Every revolution begins with a fad. Is Bitcoin a fad?

The telephone has “too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication,” said the president of Western Union in the late 19th century.

“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad,” assured one banker, who advised against investing in Ford.

“I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse,” thundered Robert Metcalfe, founder of (now defunct) 3Com, in 1995.

Maybe bitcoin and other “cryptocurrencies” are the new telephone, the new auto, the new internet.

Moneycontrol Research’s 12 picks for Samvat 2074

Below is latest offering from Moneycontrol: 12 conviction picks that could fetch strong returns if held from this Diwali to the next, along with the rationale for our choices. The list is in alphabetical order.

Image 1

Obviously this is a buy and hold strategy with no SL. Do your own study before investing.

I have no view on these stocks.

Read more at http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks-business/diwali-sparklers-moneycontrol-researchs-12-picks-for-samvat-2074-2413721.html

October 16, 2017

Swing trading signals :: 16-OCT-2017

Swing trading signals :: 16-OCT-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ALANKIT36.907.50%9.50%BUY30.353832
||||| APEX458.055.00%39.50%BUY252.20343202
||||| ARCOTECH65.10-19.50%-26.00%SELL123.4510478
||||| ARIES206.6019.50%38.00%BUY143.60174144
||||| ARIHANTSUP169.55-1.00%-6.50%SELL193.00194175
||||| BAJAJ-AUTO3224.802.00%6.50%BUY3004.8031552828
||||| BHARATFIN1018.451.00%7.50%BUY899.60980872
||||| BLISSGVS172.8510.00%5.00%BUY154.25176156
||||| BOSCHLTD22199.302.50%1.50%BUY20350.002265020450
||||| CENTURYPLY275.852.50%11.50%BUY235.25258235
||||| CIPLA606.752.00%8.00%BUY560.65600543
||||| DBL744.403.50%25.50%BUY561.00621561
||||| ENDURANCE1132.701.50%10.50%BUY965.251074965
||||| ESCORTS722.151.50%8.00%BUY605.40687605
||||| EVERESTIND481.3016.00%40.00%BUY324.60385325
||||| FEDERALBNK124.806.00%8.00%BUY109.60121108
||||| GOACARBON699.204.50%86.50%BUY388.00479346
||||| GUJGASLTD932.505.00%11.00%BUY796.40890775
||||| JMFINANCIL186.308.50%27.50%BUY126.30154126
||||| M&M1368.603.00%5.50%BUY1224.0013521224
||||| MFSL580.05-0.50%-5.50%SELL652.90653580
||||| NIFTYBEES1055.960.50%1.50%BUY1000.0010501000
||||| PENINLAND29.756.00%33.00%BUY22.052819
||||| RAMCOIND292.009.00%10.50%BUY232.70292233
||||| SUNPHARMA547.952.00%4.50%BUY489.50529466
||||| SUVEN220.2011.00%23.00%BUY171.65198158
||||| TATAMOTORS437.052.50%8.50%BUY397.40428374
||||| TATAMTRDVR245.002.50%7.00%BUY220.00243208
||||| THERMAX979.654.50%2.50%BUY833.60970834
||||| V2RETAIL476.556.00%13.50%BUY371.15480371
||||| VEDL335.204.00%5.00%BUY297.00335297
||||| WELSPUNIND63.60-2.50%-17.50%SELL78.908166