December 31, 2017

BANKNIFTY Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Yearly charts

Daily charts - rangebound between 24500 and 26000



NIFTY Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly charts


Weekly charts - trend is up with support at 10000





Advice From A 19 Year Old Girl & Software Developer

After I finished high school, I decided to not go to university. 

This was a very scary step for me, as I was kind of brainwashed into thinking that that’s the only way to have a successful future: everyone around me went to the best universities! I spent so much time trying to get the best grades in high school to eventually go to a good university, did I really just waste so many years of my life for nothing? Yup, pretty much, but I don’t at all regret it!

Most of the people around me didn’t understand and thought I was making a big mistake, but the small amount of people that understood and supported me really motivated me.


I’ve always been very independent: I moved to another country by myself when I was 18, travelled a lot on my own during my teens, and have always been busy doing anything to improve my future. I’ve never felt pressured into doing stuff because society wanted me to, I’ve always done my own thing. After I decided to not go to university, but give my 110% to programming instead, I went to a coding bootcamp for 3 months in Tampa Bay, Florida. I didn’t have to do this, but it definitely helped me to get some structure and be surrounded by other people who enjoyed programming as well, as I didn’t have that before. I coded intensively, was constantly out of my comfort-zone (which I love), put a lot of effort into my personal projects to improve my coding skills, and learned so many new technologies.

Guess what? Even during the 3 months, an insane amount of recruiters reached out to me asking if I could work for them. 

Read more at https://medium.com/@lydiahallie/advice-from-a-19-y-o-girl-software-developer-88737bcc6be5

December 29, 2017

New "Deep Learning" Hacking Technique Is 99.5% Effective Cracking Into Android Smart Phones

The method uses an algorithm to reveal a person's passcode using the phone's six built-in sensors, which analyzes the unique tilt of the phone and how much light is being blocked while a person enters their four-digit pin. 
Co-author of the study Dr Shivam Bhasin from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) said: 'When you hold your phone and key in the PIN, the way the phone moves when you press 1, 5, or 9, is very different. 
'Likewise, pressing 1 with your right thumb will block more light than if you pressed 9.'
Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-29/new-deep-learning-hacking-technique-995-effective-cracking-android-smart-phones


Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.5% in positive at 10530
- AD was positive
- swing low support 10000
- resistance 11000
- minor support 10400

It is a matter of perspective

December 28, 2017

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat at 10478
- AD was flat
- option writing  support at 10400
- resistance 11000

December 27, 2017

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.4% in negative at 10490
- Advance decline was 1:2
- swing low support at 10000
- minor support at 10400
- resistance 11000

Nifty target of 20,000 by…

“Indian GDP will double in coming decade”

“India is the fastest growing economy and the best place to invest on this Earth”

“This will be the biggest and longest bull rally”

Well, all these are Bull shit statements used by TV Cartoon channels and Experts to trap retail investors.
  • India will become 3rd biggest economy- Well, a slum cluster may have more earning than your household. This doesn’t mean you should invest in that slum cluster. Right? GDP per capita in India will still remain pretty low, and the economy size = GDP per capita X Population. So, with increasing population for coming decades, we will for sure become the biggest economy in the world one day
  • India is the fastest growing economy (vs US, China etc)- Over last 10 yrs, India has grown much faster than US & China. But if you had invested in Amazon/Alphabet/Alibaba etc you would have become a lot more richer than investing in Indian cos. US mkts have out-performed Indian mkts by a big margin over last 10 yrs. US cos are innovative. They have Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook. What have we got here?
  • Big bull rally- Another bull shit statement. Any macro event at political or cross country level and everyone will start selling from 9 AM sharp. Nifty itself may hit a lower circuit. Well, have you thought about that? Also, note that pharma sector is in bear market for last 1 year. So, bear market is also there in the current market itself.


Read more at https://indianwallstreet.wordpress.com/2017/12/26/nifty-target-of-20000-by

LTCG tax on equity may return to haunt D-Street

Tax on long-term capital gains (LTCG), the impost that is the most fiercely opposed by India’s stock market participants, may finally be taken up by the government in Budget 2018. The Finance Ministry is looking to do away with the distinction between tax on long- and short-term capital gains or raise the holding period for long-term tax exemption to three years from one, two sources close to budget preparations told BusinessLine.

Short-term capital gains from equity holding for less than a year are taxed at 15 per cent. Gains from shares sold after a year, known as LTCG, have been exempt from tax since 2005. The LTCG exemption was intended to promote equity investments, but the Direct Tax Code (DTC) framework, re-drafted in 2009, proposed an elimination of this distinction.

Read more at http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/long-term-tax-on-shares-to-hunt-dstreet/article10002706.ece

My notes: by all means tax LTCG... person is making money.. so why not pay tax?

December 26, 2017

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed in positive at 10531
- AD was positive
- swing low support 10000... minor support 10400
- resistance 11000

December 24, 2017

Nifty PE Ratio Analysis – Are we at the Tipping Point?

Current PE Ratio Metric at 26.86 is little above the 2 standard deviation.

So how does it matters to a common investor? In simple statistical terms – Approximately 95% of the area of a normal distribution is within two standard deviations of the mean. i.e in simple terms 95% probability that Nifty is highly overvalued in normal distribution terms with mean reversion tendency is relatively high. Year 2000 and 2008 are the other periods where Nifty crossed 2 standard deviation where the end result is not a good outcome for the investors with short term or medium term horizon.



Read more at http://www.marketcalls.in/fundamentals/nifty-pe-ratio-analysis-tipping-point.html

December 22, 2017

My trading strategy explained in one chart

- Draw lines indicating areas of support and resistance.
- Then buy on close above resistance with SL below support.  And vice versa.
- Works in any time frame - 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly.
Risk management takes care of losses - profits are whatever the markets give.
- Finally, everything boils down to probability.

So simple... no indicators, wave counts etc. 

I don't know why people like to complicate things and use charts like this.

Put differently, if you are spending more than 1 minute to analyse a chart then something is wrong with your methodology. 

More analysis never leads to better results. 

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed at 10493, 0.5% in positive
- this is highest ever close for nifty
- AD was marginally positive
- option writing support at 10000

- NOTE: I will on vacation next week... expect delays in updates and fewer posts.

Nooreshtech: How long can divergence between small caps and large caps continue?

BSE Indices are not tracked as much and we find BSE Smallcap as the best indicator for looking at froth/momentum in the markets.

The reason to look at it is because it has the lowest of the smallcaps and is not limited by no of stocks like Nifty Small 100. As of now the index has 849 Stocks !!

The S&P BSE SmallCap is designed to represent the bottom 15% of the total market cap of the S&P BSE AllCap. The index is designed to represent the small-cap segment of India's stock market.

We have been looking for divergence in BSE Smallcap Index move with the benchnmark – Nifty/Sensex for finding times to get strict with our stoplosses as well as ride momentum.

What is the Divergence we look for.

1) Momentum Divergence of BSE smallcap with Nifty/Sensex

When Nifty makes lower tops or is struggling to make strong moves and BSE Smallcap Indices continue to make higher highs or much stronger moves.

After this we generally see a good correction of 10-25% on smallcaps and 5-15% on the benchmark. The tough part is this divergence can stick for a couple of months also. So the strategy is to ride with strict stoplosses but start avoiding leverage. Not the best time to put fresh money and if you are a conservative trader/investor keep increasinhigh g cash in small parts.

2) Panic Divergence of BSE Smallcap with Nifty/Sensex

Read more at http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2017/12/bse-smallcap-index-and-niftysensex-momentum-divergence-how-long-can-it-continue.html

NIFTY 50's biggest surprises

It does not matter whom you follow as long as ...

It does not matter whom you follow as long as you learn to manage the risk in your trade.

Follow anyone.... any analyst, any TV call or call from any forum... it does not matter. Just control the risk.

If you cannot control the risk part of a trade, chances are you will be out of business very soon.

It is not a coincidence that the most successful traders are also excellent at managing risks.

So whatever you do, make sure you do not risk more than 1 or 2% of your capital on any trade.

This process also sets you up emotionally for a loss so if it comes you are not in pain and know that you have take the hit. Since you are losing only 1% of your capital, booking a loss becomes far more easy.

Bitcoin rally over?

Charlie Munger's view on India - bunch of idiots



And an interesting response from leading_nowhere

December 21, 2017

Swing trading signals :: 21-DEC-2017

Swing trading signals :: 21-DEC-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABFRL175.403.00%9.00%BUY161.70174147
||||| ADANITRANS225.859.50%10.00%BUY165.85222181
||||| AJANTPHARM1503.552.50%13.00%BUY1256.0014081169
||||| ALEMBICLTD53.5013.00%36.00%BUY39.154438
||||| ANANTRAJ67.756.00%16.00%BUY55.056652
||||| APOLLOTYRE265.402.00%4.50%BUY236.80260228
||||| ARSHIYA115.059.50%7.50%BUY86.1011476
||||| BAJAJFINSV5353.350.50%4.00%BUY4905.0053494850
||||| BPCL535.100.50%5.50%BUY489.35547487
||||| BRFL159.95-4.50%-3.00%SELL231.65214123
||||| BUTTERFLY589.305.00%44.50%BUY414.40510316
||||| CANFINHOME509.307.00%10.50%BUY450.00495431
||||| CEATLTD1918.454.00%5.50%BUY1695.6018591672
||||| CESC1052.254.00%3.00%BUY972.001054973
||||| CGPOWER91.003.00%5.00%BUY80.659178
||||| CUMMINSIND881.301.00%2.50%BUY826.00912841
||||| DBCORP339.65-1.00%-6.50%SELL374.00379357
||||| DBREALTY43.6019.50%18.50%BUY34.253934
||||| DIVISLAB1086.152.00%4.50%BUY999.051118882
||||| DWARKESH49.80-3.00%-21.50%SELL64.808057
||||| EXIDEIND221.202.50%7.50%BUY200.10215195
||||| FCL49.954.50%39.00%BUY35.854135
||||| GANESHHOUC150.307.50%14.50%BUY123.80148105
||||| GMRINFRA19.858.00%17.00%BUY16.302016
||||| GODREJAGRO574.151.50%4.50%BUY535.25583522
||||| GSKCONS6599.251.50%9.00%BUY5955.0061655110
||||| GVKPIL16.805.00%5.00%BUY14.452014
||||| HIMATSEIDE382.803.50%16.00%BUY326.25378318
||||| HINDALCO263.301.50%3.00%BUY229.40278240
||||| IDEA101.553.50%5.50%BUY89.5011191
||||| IFCI28.7520.00%16.50%BUY22.752623
||||| INDIACEM184.103.00%4.50%BUY152.00198161
||||| INTELLECT170.202.50%18.50%BUY135.00154136
||||| IPCALAB598.354.00%10.50%BUY506.40595520
||||| IVC33.758.00%55.50%BUY21.002916
||||| J&KBANK78.351.00%5.00%BUY71.008473
||||| JAMNAAUTO77.105.50%20.50%BUY59.906758
||||| JSLHISAR228.459.00%5.50%BUY196.90239194
||||| KALPATPOWR480.552.50%9.50%BUY418.80475370
||||| KARURVYSYA124.852.00%1.00%BUY111.15133112
||||| KNRCON303.2010.00%9.50%BUY254.80293252
||||| LAURUSLABS563.455.00%5.50%BUY499.00558515
||||| LEEL294.352.50%2.00%BUY252.00312240
||||| LT1258.802.00%3.50%BUY1175.0012751203
||||| MANAPPURAM118.7012.00%15.50%BUY96.2010992
||||| MANINFRA66.254.50%8.50%BUY57.906758
||||| MERCK1286.351.50%11.50%BUY1081.0512101092
||||| MFSL590.652.50%4.00%BUY520.15590541
||||| MMFL1183.807.00%31.50%BUY855.00931820
||||| MPHASIS751.603.00%4.50%BUY699.05775680
||||| MRF70860.552.50%2.00%BUY65323.907050063614
||||| MUTHOOTFIN472.206.00%4.00%BUY409.00519425
||||| NHPC29.504.00%9.00%BUY26.253026
||||| OMAXE225.554.50%8.00%BUY202.55218204
||||| PIDILITIND924.453.50%9.50%BUY825.00859751
||||| QUICKHEAL286.452.50%23.50%BUY218.00234186
||||| RAMASTEEL211.005.50%14.50%BUY175.50196179
||||| RELCAPITAL479.355.00%6.50%BUY397.00591400
||||| RELINFRA505.058.00%12.00%BUY425.60513391
||||| REPCOHOME690.901.50%11.00%BUY599.80676550
||||| RICOAUTO101.852.00%6.00%BUY86.5010288
||||| SADBHAV398.555.00%10.50%BUY333.85383304
||||| SANGHIIND128.901.50%4.00%BUY111.00137114
||||| SARLAPOLY66.107.50%17.00%BUY49.956052
||||| SETCO66.004.00%69.00%BUY39.104638
||||| SICAL252.353.50%13.50%BUY212.50251204
||||| SIEMENS1243.254.00%4.00%BUY1119.4512921159
||||| SRF1946.801.50%4.00%BUY1759.0019101556
||||| SUNTV982.904.50%11.50%BUY826.65916827
||||| SUPREMEIND1221.851.50%8.00%BUY1098.5011801096
||||| TAKE164.602.50%4.00%BUY151.90179150
||||| VAKRANGEE392.052.50%11.00%BUY346.08371258
||||| VASCONEQ46.5513.00%29.50%BUY35.204333
||||| VBL578.758.00%16.00%BUY492.55545486
||||| WSTCSTPAPR320.106.50%51.00%BUY206.50244185

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat at 10440
- AD was 2:1
- swing low support at 10000

Infographic: Blockchain explained in brief

F&O Transaction carried out through recognized Stock Exchange is not Speculative Transaction, can be set off against Ordinary Business Income: ITAT

“4.2. We find that the loss from F&O business carried out through recognized stock exchange cannot be treated as speculative loss in view of the exceptions carried out under s.43(5) of the Act. As per clause(d) of  first proviso to section 43(5) of the Act inserted by the Finance Act, 2005 with effect from 01/04/2006, trading in derivatives carried out through recognized stock exchange will not be deemed to be a speculative transaction for the purposes of section 43(5) of the Act. Thus, the loss arising from trading in derivatives ought to be treated as ordinary business loss. Thus, the restrictions applicable for eligibility of set off of loss of speculative nature will not apply to the loss arising from F&O transaction.”

7. Thus, F&O transaction carried out through recognized stock exchange cannot be treated as speculative transaction. Therefore, I allow appeal of the assessee and direct the AO to grant set off of this loss against business income.
Read more at http://www.taxscan.in/fo-transaction-carried-recognized-stock-exchange-not-speculative-transaction-can-set-off-ordinary-business-income-itat/15144/ and http://www.taxscan.in/preview/?previews=13Tv7HCWan8qNg4PvjdUxhjCPFpzyxaH7

December 20, 2017

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.2% in negative at 10444
- AD was positive
- swing low/ option writing support at 10000
- minor call writing resistance appearing at 10500

The futility of asking how the market will fare

...The real reason why I don’t divulge what I actually do is because of the question that follows:

“Market kya lagta hai (what does the market look like)?”

This question has been my nemesis—at interviews as well as social gatherings. I really don’t think in terms of market levels and normally I don’t have a strong view on where the market is headed, but under societal pressure I regurgitate something about earnings and liquidity and macro and head straight for the buffet.

On a serious note, “Market kya lagta hai?”, at least in the Indian context, is a futile preoccupation. Sample this: MSCI India barely produced any return in dollar terms for 10 years between November 2007 and November 2017. If, in November 2007, one had gazed at the crystal ball and said that the market would yield nothing for the next 10 years, the statement would have been apocalyptic, but that’s what actually happened. And not even the staunchest bear would describe the last 10 years in Indian equity markets as apocalyptic.

That’s because over longer time horizons, money is made or lost in individual stocks whose performance does not have much to do with what the broad market does. Despite the lost decade for the headline index, 86 stocks, with market capitalization in excess of $500 million, quintupled over that time frame (multiplying five times in 10 years implies a healthy compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of over 17%) (Chart 1). We keep reiterating that our basic unit of thinking is stocks and not market averages. Like all investors, we own stocks in our portfolio and not index futures, which is why we do not obsess too much about broad market earnings and broad market valuations.

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/rsXCcvE34h3x0xxaQTXk4H/The-futility-of-asking-how-the-market-will-fare.html

China: The person you are calling has been blacklisted by the courts for failing to repay their debts

China maintains a public blacklist of debtors that effectively restricts their movements and their spending habits.

The country's highest court publishes the names and ID numbers of "dishonest people" on its website and restricts those people from flying domestically, using high-speed trains, or enrolling their children at expensive private schools.

Defaulters are also prevented from staying at hotels with three-stars or more.

Read more at https://www.businessinsider.in/Debtors-in-China-are-placed-on-a-blacklist-that-prohibits-them-from-flying-buying-train-tickets-and-staying-at-luxury-hotels/articleshow/62143176.cms