May 23, 2015

How to take food from a pride of lions without a fight

And the stock markets are no different. While confidence is what you need, risk management is obviously important.

May 22, 2015

NIFTY intraday futures chart

- did not trade as I was out of market whole day
- there were 2 buy signals today
- first on breakout above small inner box (if you are following only today's chart)
- second on breakout above bigger box (if you following historical intraday charts as well)
- long trade got stopped on break of 8460 F
- the first (early) long trade was slightly profitable
- the second (late) long trade was in loss
- candlesticks would have warned of break of 8460F if one studies patterns
- finer entry/ exit is possible on 1 min or 3 min chart at cost of more trades/ whipsaws


Market outlook

- trend up on daily charts as higher high higher low maintained
- advance decline does not support rally
- divergence in banknifty index as it closes in red even as nifty closes in +ve
- option writing support seen at 8300


May 21, 2015

Market outlook

- trend is up on daily charts
- breakout from range is not showing fast rally; more like a struggle
- advance decline negative today
- consider 8300 as good support; watch this level for trend reversal
- option writing support 8200 resistance 8500


NIFTY hourly charts breakout

- we got the breakout on hourly charts triangle
- however the breakout rally is missing
- nifty fut has barely moved 100 points in 4 days
- something else is happening
- immediate support 8370 F below which trend reversal possible


NIFTY futures intraday chart

- markets still rangebound
- break below first box was short trade which got stopped out at small loss
- breakout above second box was long trade which gave small profit
- overall a day for the broker


May 20, 2015

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- breakout above first swing high (small thick line) was bullish
- but this brings entry level close to previous day's high
- so it makes sense not to do anything (in hindsight)
- long trade here get stopped out at no profit no loss
- short trade does not make sense
- overall a day for brokers and not traders.


Market outlook

- trend is up
- swing reversal level increased to 8100
- advance decline flat though market was up 0.7%
- follow thru buying after a breakout is missing
- option writing support 8300... cut in OI in 8500 call options


May 19, 2015

Market outlook

- trend is up despite intraday volatility
- doji with upper tail indicates selling at higher levels
- expected breakout rally not happening
- advance decline flat
- option writing support at 8000 resistance at 8500


NIFTY futures intraday charts

- ignore first bar of the trade as it is a freak trade
- breakout out from initial trading range was buy signal
- close below 8405F was exit call for long position
- short trade not considered as overall bias was bullish
- in hindsight, big bar breaking SL could be considered as possible trend reversal intraday