March 31, 2015

NIFTY monthly charts

- markets form bearish engulfing bar
- this is the second time this is happening in 6 months
- this is causing negative divergence on RSI
- above means chances of trend reversal on monthly charts


NIFTY futures intraday charts

- nifty rangebound between 8550 and 8585F through out the day
- any intraday trade would be possible only on 1 min charts
- ignore first breakout above 8585F around 12.30 (circle)
- second breakout above 8585F was valid buy signal
- markets showing difficultly above 8585F levels
- note lack of follow thru buying for 20-30 min after breakout
- short trade possible above 8585 F (4 candlesticks forming upper tails - shown in box).
- breakout fails / short trade gets initiated.
- I did not trade today



Market outlook

- markets form 2nd day of higher high higher low
- within a downtrend, 2-3 days of higher high higher low is normal
- advance decline mildly positive
- selloff at higher levels
- sustaining above 8550 spot / 8600 F bullish for 1-2 days more



How to identify a trend - short video

Once you understand this, there is nothing else more to know. No indicators, wave counts, etc etc and no need to depend on anyone.

Just identify the trend and trade in the direction of the trend. Risk management will take care of losses.



And this is the second part of the video

Sensex resistance

Sensex resistance 28000-28750


March 30, 2015

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- first buy signal failed/ got stopped out
- for above trade, SL at day's low never got hit
- later buy signals gave good profits
- one could have also considered breakout above day's high (8495 F)
- SL below low of breakout bar; this did not get hit


This is chart for 8500 call option


BANK NIFTY techicals

- index forms higher high higher low on daily charts
- relief rally possible to max 19340 levels
- broader trend is down


Market outlook

- markets bounce off lower trendline and oversold levels
- rally to 8600-8700 possible
- this will be a technical pullback or relief rally
- markets may eventually form a lower swing high and break recent supports
- broader trend is down
- option writing support 8400 resistance 8600



March 29, 2015

NIFTY nearing RSI support

Here 14 day RSI is approx 30... on 5 day RSI, Nifty is already oversold (10).

Ignore the BB indicator.


Interesting charts

Decide your strategy based on support and resistance lines or breakouts shown

ABIRLANUVO