November 20, 2017

Two Things Successful Traders Are Doing

1)  They collaborate:  They find like-minded colleagues and reach out to discuss ideas, research, and performance.  That collaboration allows for a richer processing of information, as traders not only see something on a screen, but actively work with that information.  Many traders fall short of their potential because they aren't processing information in the ways best for them.  Active processing is great, but many traders excel at interactive processing. 

2)  They find multiple ways to make money:  They aren't limited to one strategy or pattern to trade.  That allows them to succeed when markets become slower or when trends are not dominant.  Many times, the discovery of new ways to succeed comes from the collaboration mentioned above.  Seeing how other traders are succeeding sparks ideas for a trader.  Imagine how successful you could be if you cultivated a fresh source of edge each year.  Over time, you would have quite a portfolio of methods for succeeding, and you could reap the benefits of diversification:  always having some methods working while others are not.


The Biggest Killer of Investment Returns

Somewhere, right this very moment, an investor you know of is having more fun than you. He has just made a lot of money – more than you – thanks to the graphite electrode stock he owns. And you just missed out on it.

Not just that, you realize you have missed out on so many other stocks that others own and are making tons of money on, and you aren’t. In fact, you may even know of someone who owns all the stocks that are rising, and you are cursing yourself for not being that person, plus envying him.

Not just that, looking at your portfolio you realize that somewhere, something isn’t right. There’s one stock, or maybe more, that hasn’t done much even when other stocks you don’t own have skyrocketed.


November 19, 2017

How does a bull market looks like

This year, nifty has gained 26% and people who made money are congratulating themselves on their intelligence and skills etc etc.

But what does a bull market look or feel like?

To recap, this is the chart of what a real bull market looks like.

In the chart, the first arrow refers to the month when nifty gained 17% (OCT 2007). At current price levels, it means a min gain of 1700 points in one month.

World's deadliest animals in terms of people killed

Hot stocks and charts


November 18, 2017

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 10100 - 9700

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up this year
- no sell signal so far
- support 23800

Moody: India rating timeline - best time was 1980s

Global rating agency Moody’s on Friday upgraded India’s sovereign bond rating by a notch to Baa2. This is the best for the country in the recent past, but India's sovereign  - ratings in late 1980s and 1990 were higher. The economy had a rating of A2 in 1988 which was downgraded by two notches to Baa1 in 1990. However, the rating in 1990 was still a notch higher than now.

November 17, 2017

Market outlook + Option Analysis

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF opened gap up but closed near lows of the day
- overall NF was still 0.7% up at 10284
- AD was 11:6

Option Analysis
- resistance seen at 10400-10500
- support seen at 10000 and not at 10200 or 10300
- so correction not ruled out

Next big move by Modi? Bank cheque facility may be withdrawn to push digital transactions

The CAIT secretary general said, “The government spends Rs 25,000 crore on printing of currency notes and another Rs 6,000 crore on their security and logistics. “Moreover, banks charge 1 per cent on payments through debit card and 2 per cent through credit cards. The government needs to incentivise this process by providing subsidy directly to the banks so these charges can be waived.”

Khandelwal said only 5 per cent of the total 80-crore ATM-cum-debit cards are used for cashless transactions, while 95 per cent of them are used for cash withdrawals. Mastercard Executive Director (Global Community Relations) Ravi Aurora said this initiative with the CAIT will provide a “major fillip in our endeavour to move towards a less-cash society”. “Under the digital literacy campaign, we have held about 450 conferences during the past three years. By the end of next month, we have set the target to reach to 10 lakh merchants to support the government’s target of powering 2,500 -crore digital transactions,” Aurora said.


After rating upgrade, India still in same category? Bit confusing.

Strange /funny RTI info on bullet train

Question: if this RTI reply is true/ authentic, then what was the big noise / celebration about the Mumbai Ahmedabad bullet train project? Was it just gas?

Moody’s Upgrades India’s Sovereign Rating

Moody’s Investor Service has upgraded India’s sovereign rating for the first time since 2004, citing continued progress in the nation’s economic and institutional reforms. The rating agency on Monday upgraded India's rating to Baa2 from Baa3. The outlook on the rating is 'stable'.


My take: this is a huge positive for India and should embolden the government to undertake more reforms.

November 16, 2017

NIFTY options open interest

Option writing analysis
- 10000 will hold this DEC
- 10200 may not break this NOV
- trend is up
- just joking... don't let this affect your trading strategy as views can change

Source: NSE F&O bhavcopy

NIFTY futures hourly charts

With kplswing indicator N=5

Another example of GST rate reduction not benefitting customers

Customer pays the same amount even though GST rate dropped down from 18% to 5%.

Here is the link to the McDonald instance

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF recovered smartly and closed 1% in positive at 10215
- AD was 2:1 while VIX dropped 6%
- good chances of 10100 becoming next swing low... let's see.

Mumbai resident's seek to halt govt massive publicity campaign ... want to see real work happen

People want to see real work on the ground and not impressive ads, Shivaji Park, Dadar, Mumbai residents tell the government in a letter.

Fed up of seeing and listening to advertisements on television, newspapers and radio, a group of Dadar residents want the BJP-led state government to work on better roads, affordable homes and bring down cost of essential supplies instead of wasting money on advertisements.

"Many of us residents feel that the government is spending too much money on advertisements. There are protests happening everywhere. All sections of the society - farmers, working class, taxi drivers and professionals - are troubled with prices of vegetables and other essential items shooting through the roof. The roads are in a bad condition and everyone is stressed," reads the residents' letter.

It says that the government seems interested only in giving its image a makeover and that too with public money. "This must stop and some real work must happen," the letter reads.


Indian Economy Recovering From ‘Temporary Blip’

India’s economic slowdown has bottomed out and should start moving upwards after recovering from the ‘temporary blip’ seen during the recent structural changes, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said.

Addressing investors today at the Morgan Stanley annual conference here on ‘India: Structural Reforms and Growth Path Ahead’, Jaitley talked about the massive economic reforms undertaken by India.

“I think the bottoming out of the economy is complete and now it should start moving upwards. The global economy is also moving up.

As part of the summit, Jaitley met the senior management of Morgan Stanley and addressed a gathering of senior fund managers and key financial institutional investors.

Jaitley said India’s basic parameters are quite stable as the country grew at a rate of 7-8 percent over the last three years.

“Therefore, we need over the next, at least, a decade, if not more, significantly higher growth rates in order to go ahead with expansion plan of the Indian economy,” Jaitley said.


Possibly one of the worst inventions by man

Image result for chairThe humble chair is one of the worst inventions and a hidden yet leading cause of health problems. 

Use the chair as less as possible - ideally under an hour per day. Sitting on a chair (office, car seat, dining chair, sofa etc) any more than that is likely to be as damaging as say smoking.

At the molecular level, your body was designed to be active and on the move all day long. When you stop moving for extended periods of time, it's like telling your body it's time to shut down and prepare for death.