December 9, 2016

Option trades - IV

This is an EOD record of my option trades in DEC series. Previous records are available here.


Market outlook + weekly chart

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, markets traded flat.
- AD was flat, VIX down marginally
- closing was near weekly highs
- option writing support 8000 resistance 8300

Analysis and trading results

There is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results.

More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success.

This trading paradox is something that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile for the simple reason you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. 



If terror funding hit, then how did Nagrota happen?

India to celebrate La Tomatina festival thanks to Demonetisation???

No choice for poor farmers... how can you sell tomatoes at Rs.2/- per kg and feed your family?

Cheaper to let it rot in the fields than take it to the mandi.


BTechs and MBAs in UP line up for sweepers’ jobs

ALLAHABAD: Many MBAs, other post-graduates and BTechs are among the 1.10 lakh candidates braving the morning chill to take the practical examination of cleaning drains to bag jobs as contractual sweepers (safai karmcharis) with the Allahabad Municipal Corporation (AMC). Given the large number of applicants, the process is expected to take around 408 days.

Sources claimed the recruitment may be further delayed if there is a change in government after the Uttar Pradesh assembly electi ..

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55886066.cms

GST dilemma: Hope fades for new tax regime

Demonetisation is on course to claim yet another victim. The roll-out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime is set to miss the April 1, 2017 deadline.

It looks increasingly improbable that the three GST enabling Bills — Central GST, Integrated GST and State GST — could be passed in the remainder of the ongoing winter session of Parliament, which concludes on December 16.

The three GST Bills are money Bills to be taken up by the Lok Sabha. On Thursday, the Business Advisory Committee of the Lok Sabha, which allocates time for the Bills and discussions to be taken up for the forthcoming week, met but the government strategists didn’t ask the members to allocate time for the GST Bills for the next week.

Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has cautioned of a constitutional crisis if the GST is not rolled out by mid-September 2017, the one-year validity of the GST Constitution (amendment) Bill.  However, Yechury disagreed. “This might be his interpretation, but there are ways out of that imbroglio,” he said. Constitutional expert Subhash Kashyap, a former Lok Sabha Secretary General, says such a situation was unlikely to arise, but even if it does there are ways out.

India Outflow: Deutsche Bank Says You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

If you thought November was ugly, brace yourself for even more outflows from Indian assets in December, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

Foreign funds pulled money from Indian stocks at the fastest pace since 2008 last month as Donald Trump’s surprise election win spurred expectations for more rapid interest-rate increases in the U.S. and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cancellation of high-denomination bank notes hurt cash-based business activity. The bond market wasn’t spared, with the biggest monthly exodus since the taper tantrum in 2013.

“We think that the worst of the outflows are not yet over,” said Abhay Laijawala, the head of research at Deutsche Bank in Mumbai. “The markets cannot stabilize until selling by foreigners abates.”

Read more at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-08/indian-outflows-you-ain-t-seen-nothing-yet-says-deutsche-bank

December 8, 2016

Decision points explained

Decision points are same for all traders
Decision points are price levels where day traders are expected to act. Most of the time, these are levels where a demand and supply imbalance existed. My trading revolves around these points and I expect the traders to act forcefully at these areas. These are reference points to navigate the chart space.

Day traders are creatures of habit and I assume they act at these levels again and again.

Major Decision Points are
  • High, Low and Close of the previous day
  • Open, High and Low of the trading day
  • Major Swing Pivots.
  • Big Round Numbers
  • Range Highs and Lows


Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 08-DEC-2016 

Simple rules

  • This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
  • Consider trend as UP when a stock gives a breakout above last month's high
  • To lock in gains, use a trailing SL (last month's low or last 2-3 weeks low)
  • Expect half the trades to (statistically) fail so manage the risk management in every trade
  • Limit risk per trade to maximum of 1% of your capital
  • In case of narrow ranges, consider the bigger / previous trading range as breakout levels
  • Pay attention to large bar breakout days or one day large reversal bars.