April 24, 2015

RELIANCE done nothing for past 6 years

- stock is off 30% + off 2008 highs
- nifty broke out above 6400 (2008 highs) and is trading at 8300 levels
- nothing is happening in this stock

INFY technicals

- trend is down; today stock was down 6%
- no big deal; stock has been down 20%+ in recent past

Bigger view on monthly charts shows a better picture

UK FTSE index

- index currently trading at lifetime highs
- trading range 7000-7100
- consider these as support / resistance levels

US S&P 500 large cap index

- ascending triangle
- close/ breakout above 2120 will be bullish
- close below 2080 may lead to trend reversal
- NASDAQ has already given a breakout

Market outlook

- markets retest support at 8270 (March low)
- minor swing high at 8500
- holding 8200 next week/ month will be bullish
- above 8500, rally possible to 8800
- below 8200, more panic possible in market
- option writers bullish in MAY series SL 8200

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- initial trade on short side as markets break yesterday's low (did not trade)
- trailing SL gets hit
- next long trade also stoplossed as yesterday's low becomes resistance for the day
- incidentally I took only the long trade today as I was getting slowly bullish on the market.
- did nothing thereafter and ignored the 2nd short trade.
- in hindsight, sitting tight after short trade was best strategy had one considered SL around 8370 F

- next week, expect strength above 8370 F

April 23, 2015

Market outlook

- yesterday's bullish hammer fails to show it's magic today
- no follow through rally
- advance decline negative (just like yesterday)
- first day of higher high higher low formation though red bar
- all this looks like technical pullback only
- option writing support 8200 resistance 8800 (MAY series)

BANKNIFTY futures intraday charts

Chart plotted with kplswing indicator and N=3 on 5 minute charts.

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- Break of day's low by big bar was first short signal (8460F)
- Some hints of weakness were visible in the first box
- Trailing SL hits around 8400F
- Long trade shown at first UP arrow
- Stopped out by big bearish engulfing bar (second box).
- If not exited here, then break of 8390 F would be exit level

April 22, 2015

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- possible reversal day today
- initial bias were short as supports kept breaking
- trailing SL gets hit around 8340 F
- trade shifts to long... good profits
- note 8300 is likely to offer good support

Same chart with kplswing N=3 (preferred for 5 min intraday)