May 27, 2017

Comparison between KSE and BSE index gains in 4 years

The KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange Index) has trebled over a 4 year period giving a CAGR of 32%.

The BSE has yet to double in this period while the CAGR is 13%.

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- support 22400-20300
- break of 22400 may mean trend reversal.

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- support 9300
- break of 9300 this week may mean trend reversal

CNX IT index technicals

- trend is up
- expecting strong resistance near 10900-11000

CNX Pharma Index down in the dumps

Correction in CNX Small Cap Index?

We have already seen a faster reversal of the last rally.

The index is 10% off the recent highs.

Now will we see formation of a lower swing high?

Correction in CNX Midcap Index?

We have already seen a faster reversal of the last rally.

Now will we see formation of a lower swing high?

May 26, 2017

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed almost 1% in positive
- AD was 4:1 while VIX was up 4% (why?)
- swing loss support is 9300
- consider trend as up as long as NF holds above 9300

Trading paradox: random outcome ... consistent profits

Here's an interesting paradox. 

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. 

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random, yet can't seem to produce consistent profits. 

Shouldn't a consistent, nonrandom outcome produce consistent results, and a random outcome produce inconsistent results?

Source - Trading in the Zone/Fisher p.102

May 25, 2017

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- today, BNF closed 2.9% in positive
- swing low support/ reversal level 22400