September 23, 2014

Do not catch a falling knife

When a trend changes to down or stocks start breaking important supports, you should stay away from the markets. At times like this, the 'Buy above" levels will be quite some distance away so it is important you respect them.

Many people however jump in and buy for the simple reason that if something was good buy at 100, it is an even better buy at 80-90.

Market outlook

Trend is up but is showing signs of exhaustion. The frequency of down days is increasing and number of up days is decreasing.

Good support exits at the region of 7850-7900. Close below this will mean trend reversal (nifty).

This will also lead to formation of lower swing high and break of recent swing low (7925).

However there is a complication from the option writing clues which shows highest support at 8000 levels (OCT series). As of now option writers are bullish in the sense they do not expect 8000 to break in OCT series. This situation will change going forward though.

Open positions

Best returns

NOTE: we will start exiting a lot of positions from tomorrow onwards

Poor returns

September 22, 2014

Open positions

Best returns

Poor returns

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 7850 spot. Advance decline was marginally bullish.

Close above 8200 will lead to more bullishness.

On a different note, VIX is below 12 and complacency is increasing in this market. Note that there is

September 21, 2014 - interesting site for bulls and bears

Just chanced upon when I was searching for something else.

I found it interesting for various reasons....
1.Expectations of a crash in US economy (long term)
2.Series of short simple and easy to understand videos on managing the coming crash.
3.Refreshing new way of analysing current global economy.
3.The author. Chris Martenson has an interesting bio which nicely explains his motivation to get into teaching, then financial management and his transition to an eco guru or scientist. Bio makes pleasant and worthwhile reading.

September 20, 2014


All charts from

ADITYA BIRLA NUVO - Stoploss 1500


September 19, 2014

Open positions

Best returns

Poor returns

Weekend update

NIFTY closes near high of this week. All time high is 8180 spot.

Going forward, the region of 7850-7900 is going to be an important level for trend reversals.

VIX is at record low levels and is creating fear in me just when others are getting greedy.

September 18, 2014


ANDHRA BANK - Stoploss 71