December 12, 2017

CRUDE breakout can spell more problems for India

Specially if you consider that benefits of correction were not passed on thanks to increase in excise duties.

Swing trading signals :: 12-DEC-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABCAPITAL185.85-0.50%-2.00%SELL208.80214177
||||| ANDHRSUGAR510.25-2.50%-12.50%SELL596.00622547
||||| BALRAMCHIN148.40-3.50%-7.00%SELL167.90179155
||||| BANKINDIA179.40-1.00%-8.00%SELL216.80217192
||||| BHUSANSTL64.85-1.50%-6.50%SELL75.807657
||||| CDSL343.15-1.00%-3.00%SELL375.00378351
||||| CENTURYPLY333.953.50%13.50%BUY285.20326277
||||| GENESYS325.75-2.50%-4.50%SELL387.45387323
||||| GOKEX110.20-3.50%-1.50%SELL134.65135110
||||| HATSUN851.10-1.50%-3.50%SELL924.45970708
||||| HAVELLS546.301.00%6.50%BUY494.30528486
||||| HEROMOTOCO3441.70-2.00%-5.50%SELL3710.0038833561
||||| HINDOILEXP137.157.50%6.50%BUY119.1013593
||||| HITECHGEAR544.303.00%39.00%BUY385.20455374
||||| ICICIGI784.302.50%14.00%BUY670.00726668
||||| IEX1607.453.00%4.00%BUY1490.0016201490
||||| INDIANB375.10-3.00%-6.00%SELL427.40427318
||||| INFRATEL355.40-3.00%-10.00%SELL399.40452373
||||| JMCPROJECT619.254.00%30.00%BUY460.00583432
||||| KIOCL375.95-2.00%-18.00%SELL499.75503324
||||| KOKUYOCMLN144.5019.50%42.00%BUY97.9513498
||||| MANPASAND361.30-1.50%-15.50%SELL433.15452390
||||| MAWANASUG87.95-8.00%-12.00%SELL106.7013092
||||| MAXVIL98.355.00%22.00%BUY78.009278
||||| MONTECARLO563.954.00%12.00%BUY464.15559464
||||| NBCC251.15-1.00%-7.00%SELL277.85291252
||||| NIACL576.75-0.50%-17.50%SELL703.85750632
||||| OBEROIRLTY451.05-0.50%-1.00%SELL528.95529452
||||| PFC116.05-3.50%-7.00%SELL130.45148120
||||| PURVA165.858.50%75.00%BUY91.6015892
||||| RAMCOSYS513.253.50%26.00%BUY392.40470392
||||| RECLTD147.00-2.50%-8.00%SELL165.10184154
||||| RHFL86.805.50%22.00%BUY62.258862
||||| SUVEN185.95-0.50%-3.50%SELL207.40225189
||||| TRIGYN141.009.00%44.50%BUY92.2512492
||||| TVSMOTOR760.200.50%8.00%BUY690.00748680
||||| UBL1012.65-4.00%-9.00%SELL1176.5011901015
||||| UFO504.653.00%12.00%BUY426.00499417
||||| UNIONBANK150.75-2.50%-8.00%SELL181.00185161
||||| VETO233.604.00%6.00%BUY210.30231201

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- key levels are 24800 and 25500

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF reacted off the trendline resistance
- close was at 10240 off 0.8% in negative
- AD wsa negative
- option writing support 10000

December 11, 2017

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts (read my note on trend change)
- today NF closed 0.55% in positive at 10322
- AD was flat
- expecting resistance near upper trendline
- option writing support 10000
- swing low 10000

India May Not Share The Good Fortunes Of Emerging Markets

Emerging markets are expected to return close to 100 percent over the next two years, according to Bofa-ML strategist Ajay Kapur. However, unlike the broader emerging markets, returns on equity in for MSCI India have been on a declining trend, the strategy note added. But the rise in emerging markets is likely to have a “positive rub-off” on India, it added.

BofA Merrill Lynch said that Indian equities benefitted from the global asset inflation and the “global fortunes” will have a large impact on prices in the country in 2018.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/12/11/india-may-not-share-the-good-fortunes-of-emerging-markets

Debt-Trap Diplomacy: How China is recovering its loans made to developing countries

In a reminder of how Chinese loans are collateralized by strategically important physical assets, Sri Lanka today formally handed over the Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease because it is simply not in a position to repay its onerous debt to Beijing.

Next is Pakistan?

>>>
Sri Lanka on Saturday formally handed over the control of the southern deep sea port of Hambantota to the Chinese-led companies that will run its operations, and received its first payment on the 99-year lease, the Colombo Gazette reported.

The China Merchants Port Holdings company owns 85% stake in the Hambantota International Port Group Ltd, which will now restructure the port for an estimated cost of $794 million (Rs 5,119 crore). The total deal is worth $1.1 billion (approximately Rs 6,500 crore) and will help Colombo repay the money it owes Beijing. The Sri Lanka Port Authority controls the rest of the stake in the company.
<<<

Read more at https://scroll.in/latest/860934/sri-lanka-hands-over-hambantota-port-to-chinese-company-on-a-99-year-lease

Bitcoin crosses USD 16000

The U.S. Media Just Suffered Its Most Humiliating Debacle in Ages

This post is an example of the extent to which highly "respected" media can fall to achieve their personal interests. The context is the US where Trump is the most hated President in the history so any news which can kick up dirt is welcome.

Friday was one of the most embarrassing days for the U.S. media in quite a long time. The humiliation orgy was kicked off by CNN, with MSNBC and CBS close behind, with countless pundits, commentators and operatives joining the party throughout the day. By the end of the day, it was clear that several of the nation’s largest and most influential news outlets had spread an explosive but completely false news story to millions of people, while refusing to provide any explanation of how it happened.

NIFTY futures levels for 11-DEC

Goldman Sachs: NIFTY target 11600 by Dec 18

Bankers Prepare To Send Nearly Rs 1.8 Lakh Crore In Loans To NCLT

Loans worth nearly Rs 1.82 lakh crore are at risk of entering the insolvency and bankruptcy process this month, three bankers with direct knowledge have confirmed. According to these bankers, this is the approximate exposure which banks have against the 29 corporate accounts which form the second list of stressed assets created by the Reserve Bank of India, most of which will have to be admitted under the insolvency process.

These firms will add to the 12 large accounts which were referred for resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code in June this year at the direction of the RBI. Following this, another list of accounts had been sent to banks to try and resolve by December. If they failed to do so, banks were asked to refer these to the IBC too.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/12/11/bankers-prepare-to-send-nearly-rs-18-lakh-crore-in-loans-to-nclt

Investors Told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006

Wall Street economists are telling investors to brace for the biggest tightening of monetary policy in more than a decade.

With the world economy heading into its strongest period since 2011, Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict average interest rates across advanced economies will climb to at least 1 percent next year in what would be the largest increase since 2006.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/2017/12/11/investors-told-to-brace-for-steepest-rate-hikes-since-2006

DeepMind AI teaches itself chess from scratch in four hours, proceeds to beat previous champion

DeepMind, Google's artificial intelligence program taught itself chess from scratch in just a few hours and then went on to beat the world's previous best chess-playing computer program.

AlphaZero was given only the rules of the game and no further human input. It then used a technique called self-reinforced knowledge to actually learn the details of the game.

In this technique, the system plays itself over and over while learning along the way. They describe this as a "more human-like approach" to learning the game compared to traditional programs that run an algorithm.

After all of this learning, the system was put head to head with Stockfish 8, one of the previous world champion programs. AlphaZero either won or drew all 100 matches played. The system isn't just designed for chess though. The designers also repurposed it to play Go against the original AlphaGo program. AlphaZero won that 60 to 40, too.

Australian Securities Exchange Plans to Implement Blockchain Technology

This week the Australian Securities Exchange will be replacing its existing technology with blockchain to clear and settle trades.

After years of testing, traders hope the new system in place will cut the costs of transactions, make them more secure, and make them significantly faster. Dominic Stevens, ASX Managing Director and CEO, Executive Director of BCom, said that the move to the "distributed ledger technology will put Australia at the forefront of innovation in financial markets."

What is Blockchain?

To keep it simple, Blockchain is a decentralized, digital, public ledger used to verify transactions for cryptocurrencies. Each transaction is a "block" and is added to the leger in chronological order. This technology is currently being used to monitor and verify any transactions made within digital currencies. "By allowing digital information to be distributed but not copied, blockchain technology created the backbone of a new type of internet," says the Block Geek team. According to the team, by storing blocks of identical information across its network, a blockchain cannot be controlled by any single entity and has no single point of failure.

Read more at https://interestingengineering.com/australian-securities-exchange-plans-to-implement-blockchain-technology

December 10, 2017

Hot stocks and charts

AJANTPHARM
AJANTPHARM chart

The Antilibrary: Why Unread Books Are The Most Important

A good library is filled with mostly unread books. That's the point. 
Our relationship with the unknown causes the very problem Taleb is famous for contextualizing: the black swan. 
Because we underestimate the value of what we don't know and overvalue what we do know, we fundamentally misunderstand the likelihood of surprises.
The antidote to this overconfidence boils down to our relationship with knowledge. 
The anti-scholar, as Taleb refers to it, is “someone who focuses on the unread books, and makes an attempt not to treat his knowledge as a treasure, or even a possession, or even a self-esteem enhancement device — a skeptical empiricist.”

Trading has nothing to do with a finance education


The Turtles always supported this view.

On a related note, I have always maintained there is no correlation between intelligence and successful trading.

The Curse of the Young Millionaire

Personalizing successes sets people up for disastrous failure. They begin to treat the success as a personal reflection rather than the result of capitalizing on a good opportunity, being at the right place at the right time or even being just plain lucky.
The high from “being right” the market and making all that money is unbelievable. It cannot be duplicated with drugs. You are totally invincible. You are impervious to all pain. There’s nothing bad in the world.

Making tons of money at an early age is probably a combination of the best and worst thing that can happen to you. It gives you tons of possibilities but also opens you up to potential problem situations if you’re not equipped to handle it.

Research shows about 70% of people who receive a financial windfall will lose it within a few years.
It’s estimated that nearly 80% of NFL players are broke or bankrupt after being out of the league for two years. Sixty percent of NBA players are broke after being out for 5 years.

One of the biggest problems with becoming wealthy, especially when it happens really fast, is that people become overconfident and assume wealth equals better decision-making ability. If anything, more money often causes people to make worse decisions. Success early on in life can also give you a false sense of intelligence or skill.



Read more at http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/11/the-curse-of-the-young-millionaire

December 9, 2017

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 9700
- nifty trading in flag pattern
- breakout from channel will be bullish