January 23, 2017

Neowave outlook of markets

By conventional Technical Analysis, however, “Island” area usually proves a significant resistance for the future market action. As we argued last week, “no further upsides can open until the ‘Island’ is taken over”.

An “Island” gets created when Index jumps with a gap-up and after some time, drops with a gap-down, matching that gap-up area. It is a rare but significant chart development. Index respected the “Island”, and failure to cover it finally resulted in a net loss last week.


PHARMA stocks... weekly charts showing supports


Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed within range of last 4-5 days
- closing was positive, AD 2:1, VIX flat
- fast close above 8500 can signal more upsides else rangebound

Option writing trades - V

Resuming this series thanks to popular demand. Previous trades are available here.

To make it easier for me, I will post my trades only on trend reversal. I will also not be posting the MTM everyday as I assume readers are smart enough to figure out if the trade is in profit or not.

All trades are based on 15 min charts.

My usual trade quantity is 900.

Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for Jan 2017 Expiry Week

Nifty opened mild gap down at 8404 and bounced to register day’s high 8423 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined sharply by more than 80 points to register day’s low 8340 before closing 85 points down at 8349. Nifty broke 8344-8461 range after 5 sessions.

Friday, 8344 was the point below which we can think of any reversal and 8461-8490 was expected on upper side and trading strategy was to buy on dips using stoploss 8343.  Nifty broke 8343 on Friday after a long consolidation and now we needs to have a fresh look at latest chart as there is abnormality in previous pattern.

Today I am covering bounce from 26 Dec 2016 low 7893 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 11 Jan 2017 Onward.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-outlook-of-nifty-for-jan-2017-expiry-week/

Advantage of using option chart over futures chart

Options decay and they lose their value over time... this is irrespective of the movement of the underlying.

Using option charts for exits provide a faster way to close a trade - this is specially useful when markets are rangebound and you have a position in any OTM option.

Look at this 15 min chart of nifty futuers (I use 15 min charts for positional trades)

January 22, 2017

CNX PHARMA technicals

- trend is down on daily charts
- holding above 10600 will be bullish

- note; trend is down on weekly charts

CNX IT technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- reversal level is close below 10000

- note: trend is down on weekly charts

January 21, 2017

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- some signs of weakness in BNF as it struggles to hold above 18800
- expect lots of rangebound movement between 18000 and 19000

NIFTY weekly charts

- this week nifty traded in a range within previous week's bar
- note that last week's bar gave a good breakout and close above 8300
- but this week there was no follow thru buying
- we  have strong resistance around 8500-8600 level
- next week, close below 8200 can mean trend reversal and retest of recent lows