October 21, 2014

Stocks for long term investment

These are some stocks I will be investing over the next 2-3 years. I already hold many of these stocks as a part of my long term investment but I will be adding more over the next one year.

There is no TA here... only some basic very simple FA.

All these stocks (with 2-3 exceptions) belong to well known reputed business groups, have been in existence for decades, have good products, are dividend paying and are highly liquid.

It does not matter whom you follow as long as ...

It does not matter whom you follow as long as you learn to manage the risk in your trade.

Follow anyone.... any analyst, any TV call or call from any forum... it does not matter. Just control the risk.

If you cannot control the risk part of a trade, chances are you will be out of business very soon.

It is not a coincidence that the most successful traders are also excellent at managing risks.

So whatever you do, make sure you do not risk more than 1 or 2% of your capital on any trade.

This process also sets you up emotionally for a loss so if it comes you are not in pain and know that you have take the hit. Since you are losing only 1% of your capital, booking a loss becomes far more easy.

BANK NIFTY closes at new high

BNF closes at new high... first buy signal was few days ago on 5 day swing charts and today would be a buy signal on 20 day swing charts.

Note that signal reliability is likely to be low as this index has been rangebound for last few months.

Market outlook

Current trend is down and will revert to buy on close above 8000 spot.

Today was the second day of "higher high higher low" formation. Within a downtrend, upto 2-3 "UP" days are considered normal. Advance decline was marginally positive.

Option writing points to support at 7800 (OCT series). 

October 20, 2014

Market outlook

Current trend is down and will revert to buy on close above 8000 spot.

Today was the first "higher high higher low" formation. Within a downtrend, upto 2-3 "up" days are considered normal.

Option writing is not giving any clues  as we are heading into expiry week. NOV series clues point to support at 7500 (this is preliminary, basic and based on insufficient data).


October 19, 2014

Various indices analysed

BANK NIFTY... trend is down and will revert to buy above 16300. For those using 5 day swing, the index has already given a buy with SL at 15100.


October 18, 2014

US markets

US markets have broken 2 swing lows and have witnessed strong selloff for 4-5 continuous days. In the overall context, we are looking at a dead cat bounce from oversold levels.

UK market charts

The FTSE is staging a dead cat bounce from oversold levels both on daily and weekly charts.

Expect strong resistance at 6500 levels.

October 17, 2014

Weekend update

Current trend is down and will reverse to buy on close above 8000 (more strength above 8200).

Option writing points to resistance at 8000.


October 16, 2014

Markets break 7800

Current trend is down and will reverse to buy on close above 8000 (more strength above 8200).

I was expecting 7800 to hold this series but this did not happen and markets broke this quite strongly.

Now option writing points to resistance at 8000.