December 11, 2017

The U.S. Media Just Suffered Its Most Humiliating Debacle in Ages

This post is an example of the extent to which highly "respected" media can fall to achieve their personal interests. The context is the US where Trump is the most hated President in the history so any news which can kick up dirt is welcome.

Friday was one of the most embarrassing days for the U.S. media in quite a long time. The humiliation orgy was kicked off by CNN, with MSNBC and CBS close behind, with countless pundits, commentators and operatives joining the party throughout the day. By the end of the day, it was clear that several of the nation’s largest and most influential news outlets had spread an explosive but completely false news story to millions of people, while refusing to provide any explanation of how it happened.

NIFTY futures levels for 11-DEC

Goldman Sachs: NIFTY target 11600 by Dec 18

Bankers Prepare To Send Nearly Rs 1.8 Lakh Crore In Loans To NCLT

Loans worth nearly Rs 1.82 lakh crore are at risk of entering the insolvency and bankruptcy process this month, three bankers with direct knowledge have confirmed. According to these bankers, this is the approximate exposure which banks have against the 29 corporate accounts which form the second list of stressed assets created by the Reserve Bank of India, most of which will have to be admitted under the insolvency process.

These firms will add to the 12 large accounts which were referred for resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code in June this year at the direction of the RBI. Following this, another list of accounts had been sent to banks to try and resolve by December. If they failed to do so, banks were asked to refer these to the IBC too.


Investors Told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006

Wall Street economists are telling investors to brace for the biggest tightening of monetary policy in more than a decade.

With the world economy heading into its strongest period since 2011, Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict average interest rates across advanced economies will climb to at least 1 percent next year in what would be the largest increase since 2006.


DeepMind AI teaches itself chess from scratch in four hours, proceeds to beat previous champion

DeepMind, Google's artificial intelligence program taught itself chess from scratch in just a few hours and then went on to beat the world's previous best chess-playing computer program.

AlphaZero was given only the rules of the game and no further human input. It then used a technique called self-reinforced knowledge to actually learn the details of the game.

In this technique, the system plays itself over and over while learning along the way. They describe this as a "more human-like approach" to learning the game compared to traditional programs that run an algorithm.

After all of this learning, the system was put head to head with Stockfish 8, one of the previous world champion programs. AlphaZero either won or drew all 100 matches played. The system isn't just designed for chess though. The designers also repurposed it to play Go against the original AlphaGo program. AlphaZero won that 60 to 40, too.

Australian Securities Exchange Plans to Implement Blockchain Technology

This week the Australian Securities Exchange will be replacing its existing technology with blockchain to clear and settle trades.

After years of testing, traders hope the new system in place will cut the costs of transactions, make them more secure, and make them significantly faster. Dominic Stevens, ASX Managing Director and CEO, Executive Director of BCom, said that the move to the "distributed ledger technology will put Australia at the forefront of innovation in financial markets."

What is Blockchain?

To keep it simple, Blockchain is a decentralized, digital, public ledger used to verify transactions for cryptocurrencies. Each transaction is a "block" and is added to the leger in chronological order. This technology is currently being used to monitor and verify any transactions made within digital currencies. "By allowing digital information to be distributed but not copied, blockchain technology created the backbone of a new type of internet," says the Block Geek team. According to the team, by storing blocks of identical information across its network, a blockchain cannot be controlled by any single entity and has no single point of failure.


December 10, 2017

Hot stocks and charts


The Antilibrary: Why Unread Books Are The Most Important

A good library is filled with mostly unread books. That's the point. 
Our relationship with the unknown causes the very problem Taleb is famous for contextualizing: the black swan. 
Because we underestimate the value of what we don't know and overvalue what we do know, we fundamentally misunderstand the likelihood of surprises.
The antidote to this overconfidence boils down to our relationship with knowledge. 
The anti-scholar, as Taleb refers to it, is “someone who focuses on the unread books, and makes an attempt not to treat his knowledge as a treasure, or even a possession, or even a self-esteem enhancement device — a skeptical empiricist.”

Trading has nothing to do with a finance education

The Turtles always supported this view.

On a related note, I have always maintained there is no correlation between intelligence and successful trading.

The Curse of the Young Millionaire

Personalizing successes sets people up for disastrous failure. They begin to treat the success as a personal reflection rather than the result of capitalizing on a good opportunity, being at the right place at the right time or even being just plain lucky.
The high from “being right” the market and making all that money is unbelievable. It cannot be duplicated with drugs. You are totally invincible. You are impervious to all pain. There’s nothing bad in the world.

Making tons of money at an early age is probably a combination of the best and worst thing that can happen to you. It gives you tons of possibilities but also opens you up to potential problem situations if you’re not equipped to handle it.

Research shows about 70% of people who receive a financial windfall will lose it within a few years.
It’s estimated that nearly 80% of NFL players are broke or bankrupt after being out of the league for two years. Sixty percent of NBA players are broke after being out for 5 years.

One of the biggest problems with becoming wealthy, especially when it happens really fast, is that people become overconfident and assume wealth equals better decision-making ability. If anything, more money often causes people to make worse decisions. Success early on in life can also give you a false sense of intelligence or skill.


December 9, 2017

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 9700
- nifty trading in flag pattern
- breakout from channel will be bullish

BANK NIFTY weekly technicals

- trend is up
- support 23800

Update on NIFTY trend

On 6-DEC, Nifty broke and closed below 10100. This triggered my trailing SL and I confirmed change of trend in Nifty. I also mentioned this was the first and only sell signal in Nifty this year.

Now I also mentioned that 10000 is a big support and will not break this series thanks to the massive put writing (open interest is still the highest).

Common sense dictates I take 10000 as the stoploss and not 10100.

This was a serious error on my part and this post is to put this on record that:

"trend is up and will reverse on close 10000 ... i.e. decisive break of 10000."

The new economy

December 8, 2017

About discarding a hard drive containing 7500 bitcoins now worth USD 100 million+

As The Independent reports, Howells began his fascination with the cryptocurrency in February 2009, and through his computational expertise, he mined 7,500 Bitcoins in the preceding years.

However, there was a woman in Howells' life and, as Gizmodo reports, his girlfriend got fed up with the noise of his block-mining hardware and made him stop. At the time, it was not a big loss he notes, bitcoin was worth next to nothing.

"After I had stopped mining, the laptop I had used was broken into parts and sold on eBay. However, I kept the hard drive in a drawer at home knowing it contained my Bitcoin private keys, so that if Bitcoin did become valuable one day I would still have the coins I had mined," he told the Telegraph.

Then "in mid-2013 during a clear-out, the hard drive was mistakenly thrown out and put into a general waste bin at my local landfill site, after which it was buried on site."

And so buried deep below thousands of tons of garbage on a Welsh landfill site, lies a hard drive with bitcoins potentially worth more than $100 million.


Market outlook

Daily charts
- NF closed at 10266 up 1%
- AD was positive
- NF has gained 300 points after my first sell call this year
- calling for a trend reversal when 10000 never broke is an error on my part
- so this short trade can whipsaw
- I will keep swing reversal SL at 10400-10500
- option writing support at 10000
- option writing also shows big unwinding in OTM calls

The Last Auto Mechanic is already born - and the implications for India

Let’s get right to the punch line: a very strong case can be made, and will be below, that within 15 years virtually all vehicular traffic in the US will be by autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs). And that in turn will fundamentally change how our society works, largely for the better — if we don’t blow the transition, that is. Because that statement has such profound implications, let’s unpack it bit by bit.

EV’s are cheaper. Period. Which means we’re going to use them. A lot.

The evidence is now overwhelming and conclusive: it’s cheaper to operate an electric vehicle per mile than a regular internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. And that trend is only going to accelerate, as EVs get cheaper and have longer ranges. The reason is mostly physical, and it becomes obvious when you look at this slide — 100X fewer moving parts.

Fewer parts means less wearing out. Which means less replacing, and higher use factors. The NTSB says the average ICE will last around 150,000 miles. An EV? At least 500,000, maybe as much as 1,000,000. Or put another way, as much as you will ever drive in your lifetime.


December 7, 2017