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October 13, 2015

SUN TV triangle

Market outlook

- trend is up on daily charts
- loss of upside momentum seen as rally is over 10 days old
- reversal level is 7690 spot
- advance decline was marginally positive
- drop of 5% in VIX today

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- initial bias was bearish
- I was short on first arrow of the day
- reason: no follow thru buying and close to SL
- next short was at the 2nd arrow
- note SL for both is around day's high
- 3rd short would be common for most traders (break of day's range)
- this was safest short trade but gave minimal profits as trailing SL got hit soon.

It is normal to have a textbook perfect entry but thereafter get no profits if markets do not move much after the entry. Focus on any trading should be on being consistent and having the plan. Markets will eventually give money.

On hourly charts, we are close to reversal.

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Elliot wave counts

Most Probable Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty as on 12 Oct 2015

 | October 11, 2015
Last week Nifty broke above 8055 and negated the pattern which I was expecting previously. It also triggered our stoploss for shorts I mentioned in my previous analysis report Nifty can be sold in 7970-8021 Range for Minimum Target 7541 . And negation of previous pattern forced me to look at bigger picture again.
So, today I am having a fresh look at whole decline from all time high 9117 to see if I can conclude something from bigger picture. Counts before 9117 are same as I explained in my all time frame report of 7 Sept Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for All Time Frames as on 07 Sep 2015.

October 12, 2015

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Market outlook

- trend is up on daily charts
- momentum is slowly down
- upside looks limited as rally is almost 10 days old
- profit booking possible on break of 8100 spot.
- correction upto 7900 levels will be healthy.
- trend reversal level is 7690
- I am discarding diametric view as F wave has taken longer time than expected.

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- markets unable to sustain around Friday highs (first box)
- break below 2nd and 3rd box was short signal
- first short trade was marginal profit
- second short trade worked well

Notice that past few days, it has been difficult for markets to rally further from current levels. This will eventually encourage profit booking.

On hourly charts, I am looking for a break of 8100F - this will also be the SL for long positions on hourly charts.

October 11, 2015

October 9, 2015

NIFTY weekly charts

- nifty trading in a falling channel
- this channel is a corrective to the previous rally from 6000 levels
- upper trendline of channel will offer strong resistance
- so difficult to visualise NF crossing 8400 this month