January 21, 2017

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- some signs of weakness in BNF as it struggles to hold above 18800
- expect lots of rangebound movement between 18000 and 19000

NIFTY weekly charts

- this week nifty traded in a range within previous week's bar
- note that last week's bar gave a good breakout and close above 8300
- but this week there was no follow thru buying
- we  have strong resistance around 8500-8600 level
- next week, close below 8200 can mean trend reversal and retest of recent lows

How Demonetisation Has Derailed The Hawala Route

The heat of demonetisation has been felt heavily by the hawala users and its operators. As per the reports of Central intelligence agencies, the call traffic by hawala agents in India has dropped by 50 per cent. There have been several reports of busted hawala rackets across India. The people who were running these rackets were involved in illegal conversion of old currency notes. Some RBI officials were also held for facilitating them.

The demonetisation move has certainly impacted the hawala system. But how long is this impact expected to last? Because of limited record keeping and undecipherable coding of each transaction, it is intricate to intercept the hawala transfers. Therefore, the challenge before the intelligence agencies is to track the trail of money which are transferred through hawala. This is especially an arduous task for agencies involved in counter-terrorism efforts. Intelligence agencies should be provided with sophisticated technologies to help them succeed in this. Although demonetisation has hit hawala operations, there are several reports on their revival too. One should therefore understand that demonetisation is not a checkmate to hawala, rather it is a checkpoint. There are more such measures which are necessary to curb such underground systems and to keep them in check. The current political leadership seems to have understood this.

In total, this is a transition from an untraceable to a traceable system of functioning, an investment for a better tomorrow.

Read more at https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/on-the-hawala-trail-demonetisation-has-done-its-bit-but-more-needs-to-be-done

PMS Alchemy Capital’s 2016 Returns

January 20, 2017

Sell signal on NIFTY 15 min charts

- we got the first buy signal around 8000 levels in last week of DEC
- today, we got sell signal on break of 8385F
- a cool profit of 300+ points on positional trades.

- SL for short trade is 8460 F.
- caution: next week is expiry week so time decay will be fast
- high chance that NF may favour option writers and not buyers

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed 1% in negative and below the crucial level of 8380.
- AD was negative; VIX up 5%
- today, we also got a sell signal on 15 min charts
- option writing levels not clear

US Media to Trump: we will set rules, not you

We Will Set Rules, Not You, US Media Tells Trump in Open Letter ...

2 days ago - In this December 28, 2016 file photo, President-elect Donald Trump talks to reporters at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. ... Washington: The American Press Corps, White House journalists, in an open letter to President-elect Donald Trump has said that it is the reporters and not ...

January 19, 2017

India sector performance: returns snapshot

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed marginally in positive
- AD and VIX was flat
- strong resistance around 8500-8600 levels
- option writing support 8000

Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for 19 Jan 2017

Nifty opened flat at 8403 and bounced sharply to register day’s high 8460 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined back by more than 60 points to register day’s low 8397 before closing 19 points up at 8417.

Yesterday, same 8344 was the point below which we can think of any reversal and 8461-8490 was expected on upper side. And trading strategy was to buy on dips using stoploss 8344 and minimum targets 8461-8490. Think of selling only after break below 8344. Nifty bounced as per expectation but didn’t break previous high 8461 and declined back. Let’s have a fresh look at latest chart for further scenario.

Today I am covering bounce from 26 Dec 2016 low 7893 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 11 Jan 2017 Onward.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-analysis-and-outlook-of-nifty-for-19-jan-2017/