April 23, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 10585
- AD was positive
- option writing support 10500
- resistance around 10600-10650 range

The Headwinds faced by Indian Equities

By Manish Bhandari, Vallum Capital

In many of my writings on the blog and public discussions. I have sounded a note of caution that Indian economic growth and its reflection in the stock markets is masked more by economic value shifts rather sustained value creation by the economy. The shift of value from PSU Bank to Private Sector Banks and NBFC, MTNL/BSNL to private telecom players, Air India to private aviation players,Railways to private logistic players, SME/MSME to large Industrial duopolies, etc. The market economics should have had addressed supply constraint in each industry.

Secondly, over that last one and half decade, our country has become a sustained consumer rather the producer of technologies thereby leading to ever-increasing trade deficits. Such inefficiencies and inability to create cutting-edge businesses are reflected in the jobless growth of India.

Thirdly, Indian equity market is facing a shortage of regular supply of high quality globally competitive businesses. On the domestic front, many MNCs are on the path to delist,and upcoming global businesses in India are held in the private domain.

Google autocomplete suggestions... politicians are like



And the result for the first search gives this...

Image result for politicians are like diapers

April 22, 2018

Nassim Taleb Warns Americans Should "Fear The 2% - The Intellectuals & Politicians"

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-21/nassim-taleb-warns-americans-should-fear-2-intellectuals-politicians

Skin in the game means you own your own risk. It means people who make decisions in any walk of life should never be insulated from the consequences of those decisions, period. If you’re a helicopter repairman, you should be a helicopter rider. If you decide to invade Iraq, the people who vote for it should have children in the military. And if you’re making economic decisions, you should bear the cost if you’re wrong.

People ask me my forecast for the economy when they should be asking me what I have in my portfolio. Don’t make pronouncements on what could happen in the future if you’re immune from the consequences. In French, they use the same word for wallet and portfolio.

I have never, ever borrowed a penny. So I have zero credit record. No loans, no mortgage, nothing. Ever. When I had no money, I rented. I have an allergy to borrowing and a scorn for people who are in debt, and I don’t hide it. I follow the Romans’ attitude that debtors are not free people.

I carry euros, dollars, and British pounds. What I do with my money is personal. People who say they give it to charity, that’s a no-no in my book. Nobody should ever talk about a charitable act in public.

Better to miss a zillion opportunities than blow up once. I learned this at my first job, from the veteran traders at a New York bank that no longer exists. Most people don’t understand how to handle uncertainty. They shy away from small risks, and without realizing it, they embrace the big, big risk. Businessmen who are consistently successful have the exact opposite attitude: Make all the mistakes you want, just make sure you’re going to be there tomorrow.

Don’t invest any energy in bargaining except when the zeros become large. Lose the small games and save your efforts for the big ones.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, so long as you pay the price. A used-car salesman speaks well, they’re convincing, but ultimately, they are benefiting even if someone else is harmed by their advice. A bullshitter is not someone who’s wrong, it’s someone who’s insulated from their mistakes.

What is in his wallet? Euros, dollars, and British pounds.

There is less “skin in the game” today than there was fifty years ago, or even twenty years ago. More people determine the fates of others without having to pay the consequences.

Skin in the game means you own your own risk. It means people who make decisions in any walk of life should never be insulated from the consequences of those decisions, period. If you’re a helicopter repairman, you should be a helicopter rider. If you decide to invade Iraq, the people who vote for it should have children in the military. And if you’re making economic decisions, you should bear the cost if you’re wrong.

Ninety-eight percent of Americans - plumbers, dentists, bus drivers - have skin in the game. We have to worry about the 2 percent - the intellectuals and politicians making the big decisions who don’t have skin in the game and are messing the whole thing up for everybody else. Thirty years ago, the French National Assembly was composed of shop owners, farmers, doctors, veterinarians, and small-town lawyers—people involved in daily activities. Today, it’s entirely composed of professional politicians—people who are just divorced from real life. America is a little better, but we’re heading that way.

Money can’t buy happiness, but the absence of money can cause unhappiness. Money buys freedom: intellectual freedom, freedom to choose who you vote for, to choose what you want to do professionally. But having what I call “fuck you” money requires a huge amount of discipline. The minute you go a penny over, then you lose your freedom again. If money is the cause of your worry, then you have to restructure your life.

The best money I’ve ever spent has been spent on books. The stupidest thing I’ve ever spent money on? Books. Also, I cannot understand why anyone would spend any amount to enhance their social status.

If nobody’s paying my salary, I don’t have to define myself. I find it arrogant to call yourself a philosopher or an intellectual, so I call myself a flaneur and I refuse all honors. As Cato once said, it’s better to be asked why there is no statue in your name than why there is one.

The greatest image ever released of the distant Universe

The full UV-visible-IR composite of the XDF; the greatest image ever released of the distant Universe. 

In a region just 1/32,000,000th of the sky, we’ve found 5,500 identifiable galaxies, all owing to the Hubble Space Telescope. 

Hundreds of the most distant ones seen here are already unreachable, even at the speed of light, due to the relentless expansion of space.

A galaxy will typically contain few billion to several trillion stars.

April 21, 2018

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- very good support at 10000
- H&S is seen and right shoulder may be getting completed.
- if true, then a retest and break of 10000 is possible

- if markets sustain above 10600, then rally to 11000 is possible (H&S invalidated)

Option writers are playing it very safe for next month... their short positions are built in 10000 put and 11000 call strike price... makes sense.

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- a swing high seems to have developed at 25450
- support 24000-23600

April 20, 2018

H&S pattern on hourly chart achieves target

Remember this post?

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up  on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10564
- AD was negative
- VIX down 6%
- option writing support 10500

April 19, 2018

BPCL triangle breakdown on weekly charts

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10565
- AD was positive
- option writing support 10500 F

So the root cause of black money is the salaried class?




Another puzzle



I took about 4 minutes... but the answer I have got does not have whole numbers so I am now not sure if my answers are correct.

Will post my answers by 6pm.

April 18, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF close 0.2% in negative at 10526
- AD was negative
- option writing support 10400

April 17, 2018

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 17-APR-2018 
AMBUJACEM
AMBUJACEM chart

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed marginally in positive at 10549
- AD was slightly positive

- expecting resistance near 10650 spot

- option writing support 10400
- notice how put writing support has jumped from 10000 to 10300 and now 10400


Doctors, lawyers, MBAs in the race to be Mumbai Police constables

April 16, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed  0.46% in positive at 10528
- AD was negative
- option writing support 10300

- rejecting inverted H&S on daily charts

Trauma Surgery - must watch video for traders

As a kid, I was always fascinated with surgery. This fascination persists till today and I do watch a lot of videos on Youtube.

Some time ago, for lack of anything to do, I chanced upon this video. I have seen this since then several times and thought of sharing this.

The case is pretty straight forward: a 45-50 year old man slips 25-30 feet while on a trek and is admitted in a hospital with probable pelvic fracture and low blood pressure. There is no visible injury.

In the trauma centre, the surgeon is worried about the persistent low blood pressure inspite of several units of blood transfusion. Chest x rays and abdominal scans give a negative and now the guess is the pelvic area. This can be checked only in an angiogram suite and not in the trauma room. But the falling blood pressure means unless the patient is stabilised, he cannot be taken.

The situation deteriorates rapidly due to the massive internal bleeding. The falling blood pressure leads to 3 cardiac arrests. Watch the video to see what happens next.

This video is part of a series of videos shot by Discovery TV and is recommended for traders.