July 15, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11588
- AD was 1:2

- midcaps and smallcaps continued to correct

- 16 stocks made new 52 week highs and 200+ stocks made 52 week lows

The only to reliably make money in the stock market

Source: http://alphaideas.in

July 14, 2019

Welcome the new Bhartiya Janta Congress Party

Did you vote BJP this time or Congress?

Don't worry... everything is fair in politics... there are no permanent enemies, only common interests... your ideology, criminal background, corruption abilities, principles etc simply does not matter.

Just see the tamasha... elected Karnataka representatives want to defect to BJP, Congress MLAs in Goa have already joined BJP ... Maharashtra next?

The voters always get taken for a ride... fact of life.

DHFL may not survive as a ;going concern'?

Wonder who is buying from 500 levels to below 100 now.... trend is so clearly down.

Read more at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/dhfl-warns-investors-it-may-not-survive-as-a-going-concern/articleshow/70212838.cms

July 12, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3%  in negative at 11553

- AD was flat
- 11 stocks made 52 week highs and 160 stocks made 52 week lows

- nifty still trading within channel

- VIX down 4% ... complacency?

- a breakout above 11600 was sold into

BALAJI AMINES.. funny recommendation by HDFC

Bleak future ahead... still given buy reco on 20-MAY at 439 with TGT 525

See blue arrow.......Stock has lost 100 points since then!!!

July 11, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed .7% in positive at 11583
- AD was flat ... why?

- 14 stocks made 52 week highs and 176 stocks made 52 week lows

- VIX down 8%... why?
- does this mean no fear of any downside?
- or expectation of rangebound markets?

July 10, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 11498
- AD was 6:11

- next deep support area 11000-11000

- today something interesting happened
- VIX increased initially and later dropped after 12pm
- so markets were going down but option prices did not increase
- this usually happens when a bottom is nearby
- let's see... before the budget also VIX dropped but still markets tanked

July 9, 2019

If it moves, tax it... desperate India

The government is targeting foreign investors, high-earning employees and companies to plug its fiscal gap. Such overreach never ends well.

Desperation is creeping into India’s economic policy-making. Having lost the fiscal plot, bureaucrats are trying to marshal resources by squeezing taxpayers, foreign investors, firms planning buybacks and even the central bank. Such overreach never ends well.

Tax collections last year were a full 1 percentage point of GDP lower than the 7.9 per cent the government had hoped to obtain. Rathin Roy, director of the New Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, describes the situation as an “unstated fiscal crisis.” Instead of confronting the sober reality, revamping a flawed goods and services tax, and taking steps to pull the economy out of a synchronized slowdown in consumption and private investment, bureaucrats are trying to make up the revenue shortfall by taxing everything that moves.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/if-it-moves-tax-it-desperation-creeps-into-indian-economic-policy-making-119070900359_1.html

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down
- today nifty closed flat at 11556
- AD was flat

- 10 stocks made 52 week highs and 196 stocks made 52 week lows

Shocking and sad statement from FM

July 8, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts (wef today)
- first warning came on hourly charts on Friday
- today markets closed 2.14% in negative at 11559
- AD was 2:7

- I have drawn one channel
- let us see if markets trade within the channel or break lower trendline
- if markets continue trading within channel, there will be whipsaws

- one thing is clear
- 11800 to 12000 is distribution zone
- recall all my prev posts about nifty PE being 28+
- and other posts showing rally lacked broader market participation

Average intelligence is enough for successful trading

July 7, 2019

July 6, 2019

Market Wizard Linda Raschke’s Technical Trading Rules

  1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.
  2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day.
  3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon.
  4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend.
  5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness.
  6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation.
  7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close.
  8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour.
  9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day.
  10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day.
  11. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.

Do you really need a budget for this?

Rs 4 lakh crore share sale coming to D-street

Option buyers get STT relief, trading a lift

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week nifty closed flat
- entire selling happened on Friday

- stiff resistance seen around 12000 zone
- not a single weekly close has happened above 12K
- the day it happens, expect a min rally of 10-15%

- below 11600 more correction possible

BANK NIFTY technicals

- index is rangebound
- support 30000 resistance 32000
- index is trading near top of the range