November 17, 2018

RSI Trading Simplified by Nishant Arora

Please ask questions directly to https://twitter.com/welcometotfs

November 16, 2018

Only the close matters




Expanding triangle on NIFTY hourly charts

- upper trendline is giving stiff resistance at higher levels
- in last 8-10 days, NF has not gained 100 points peak to peak.

- will lower trendline be tested once more?
- if yes, then correction possible to 10400 levels.

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.6% in positive at 10682
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 10000

S Gurumurthy' view on banking and economy are very scary




Read more at https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1063060543173386242

PMS performance OCT 18



Source: whatsapp forward

November 15, 2018

Buy signal on BANKNIFTY

SL last 2-3 weeks low



And with kplswing indiacator

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10617
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 10000
- big addition in 10600 PE

November 13, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets opened gap down but closed 1% in positive
- "bullish piercing" formation seen
- AD was flat
- VIX down 5%

- option writing support 10000

The Moody’s curse on the Indian economy

Almost a year ago, ratings company Moody’s Investors Service Inc. upgraded India’s sovereign debt rating, making India only the second large emerging market (among emerging markets in the G20 group of economies) to have improved its rating in the past five years. Since then, only one more major economy, Argentina, has been upgraded by Moody’s while two others— Turkey and Italy—have been downgraded.

India, meanwhile, has witnessed a massive exodus of foreign investors since the upgrade. According to data sourced from the Institute of International Finance Inc. (IIF), India has witnessed the sharpest non-resident portfolio outflows (equities and debt combined) among major emerging market (EM) economies over the past year.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/Politics/cDK6jVFWU1QlvcJfBffl1N/The-Moodys-curse-on-the-Indian-economy.html

Bearish H&S on S&P 500 on weekly charts?

- right shoulder is being formed
- problems only if 2600 breaks


Goldman's 'bear market risk indicator' signals returns will be zero the next 12 months

Goldman Sachs's bear market prediction tool is at an "elevated" level that has historically signaled a zero average return over the next 12 months and a "substantial" risk of drawdown.

Goldman's bear market indicator — which takes into account the unemployment rate, manufacturing data, core inflation, the term structure of the yield curve and stock valuation based on the Shiller PE ratio — is at a rare 73 percent, its highest level since the late 1960s and early 1970s.

The indicator is "flashing red," wrote Goldman chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer. "Historically, when the Indicator rises above 60 percent it is a good signal to investors to turn cautious, or at the very least recognize that a correction followed by a rally is more likely to be followed by a bear market than when these indicators are low."

Read more at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/goldmans-bear-market-indicator-shows-zero-returns-over-next-year.html

Inverted H&S on S&P 500 on daily charts?

- neckline drawn
- difficult to draw arcs or curves to show the rest of H&S


November 12, 2018

FnO stocks

Long build up: 

CUMMINSIND-fut - DHFL-fut - MGL-fut - NIITTECH-fut - REPCOHOME-fut - TATASTEEL-FUT - WOCKPHARMA-fut -

Long unwinding: 

BANKINDIA-FUT - BATAINDIA-fut - BPCL-FUT - DIVISLAB-FUT - HCC-fut - HEXAWARE-fut - HINDALCO-FUT - JUSTDIAL-fut - ORIENTBANK-FUT - PCJEWELLER-fut - RECLTD-FUT - TATAMOTORS-FUT -

Short build up: 

DALMIABHA-fut - DCBBANK-fut - GSFC-fut - HINDPETRO-FUT - JINDALSTEL-FUT - RELINFRA-FUT - SIEMENS-FUT - TATAELXSI-fut - VEDL-fut -

Short covering: 

BALKRISIND-fut - KOTAKBANK-FUT - TATAGLOBAL-fut -