- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets opened gap down and closed 1.4% in red at 10303
- AD was 5: 12
- highest OI at 11000 CE and 10000 PE
- VIX increases to 20 (11% increase today) making options expensive
We're brought up with a huge focus on being right or wrong.
At school we learn. We are then tested on that learning with exams and assignments. This continues all the way through our education – primary school, high school and college. Right and wrong: it's ingrained in us from the word go.
But when we enter the trading arena, being right or wrong has nothing to do with being a successful trader and making profits. If you believe that the most important aspect of successful trading is being correct, you are making a very big mistake.
You can be a highly profitable trader and lose more often than not – indeed, some of the world's top traders lose more often than not.
Unfortunately most people have this belief that in order to be profitable you must be right. This line of thinking for an aspiring trader is very, very wrong.
To conclude, don't be obsessed with being correct. Expect half your trades to fail. Money is made not because of the indicator but by your ability to keep losses small and letting profits run.
- yesterday I had indicated that trend has changed to up
- reason was close above a certain swing high
- today, markets opened gapup and sold off heavily
- the resulting engulfing bar was probably the biggest this year
- this means I need to change my views - so I will maintain trend as down with reversal level at 10710
- markets open gapup
- but first bar closes near low meaning selling at higher levels
- so until the high of first bar is taken out, no point in going long
- if one is long from yesterday, then trailing SL is 5 or 10 bar low
- both these go hit today
- now cannot go long, till 20 bar swing indicator gives a buy
- even then, this can whipsaw
- trend has changed to up from today (10550)
- first sell was on close below 11600
- here I am using swing high low method
- you can use any other method you are comfortable
- I have posted chart using kplswing indicator separately
- note this buy signal can whipsaw
- swing low is at 10100
- today NF closed at 10585
- AD was 13:5
- option writing support 10000 resistance 11000
- problem is OI at 10700 CE and 10800 CE is not coming down
Your psychological fortitude plays an important role in all aspects of your trading and investing, so ensure you work on it. Your emotions will do everything they can to keep you in a losing position and get you out of a winning position.
You are your worst own enemy and, generally, what you feel is the correct thing to do, is the wrong thing to do. Taking a quick profit may feel right but it skews your ability to be a solid long-term winner.
Quite simply, you need to run a trend, not cut it short. You need to cut a loss as quickly as possible, not hope it will come good
Trading is simply entering a position and then defending the risk involved with that position.
Defending the risk is about finding low-risk set-ups, moving the protective stop to breakeven as soon as it is appropriate and trailing the stop as the trend develops. In that mind-set, I simply don't think about the potential of a loss and I am completely free to accept what the market gives me each day.
Unfortunately, this is very different to what passes through the minds of most people when they get into a trade. They tend to look for confirmation by reading a public bulletin board or even by unconsciously only accepting information that agrees with their position and rejecting information that conflicts with their position.
The market is not the enemy
Other people approach trading as if they are in battle and the market is the opposition. The market is not the enemy. It cannot hurt you. You can hurt you, but the market simply facilitates the buying and selling of shares and as such provides feedback via its prices. What you do with that feedback is up to you. If you don't use a protective stop, if you use too much leverage, if you do not allow the trends to be ridden, if you bog yourself down in too much analysis, you will lose money.
The patterns themselves don't make you a successful trader. The moving average crossover doesn't make you a successful trader. The RSI, stochastic, ATR double-hitched backflip twist doesn't make you a successful trader. All these tools are just for your comfort – a way for you to feel in control and as such allow you to participate in the market. That's okay.
What makes you a successful trader is how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose. It won't matter what instrument you decide to use to trade. The same basic trading principle can be used in every market in the world – stocks, futures, commodities, ETF's and foreign exchange – and on every time frame from three-minute charts right through to weekly and monthly charts. The same expectancy will be required anywhere in order to be profitable.