February 22, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10792
- AD was 2:1

- support 10600 resistance 11000

Difficult making money in these kind of markets

February 21, 2019

After a long time, only buy signals today

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<
Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %StoplossReversalHighLow5 D14 D
||||| ALLAHABAD BANK46.304.50%BUY21/02/1946.300.0038.6538.6548427761
||||| BANDHANBNK488.702.00%BUY12/02/19471.803.58451.50397.005643978264
||||| BLISSGVS169.6010.50%BUY21/02/19169.600.00144.05140.001751448564
||||| CANFINHOME271.006.50%BUY21/02/19271.000.00235.55235.002902416957
||||| DALBHARAT1129.104.50%BUY0.001039.90995.0010988608077
||||| ICICIGI925.752.00%BUY14/02/19910.251.70850.75806.009028076962
||||| JUST DIAL522.159.50%BUY21/02/19522.150.00462.75453.005054548165
||||| QUESS680.352.50%BUY21/02/19680.350.00628.05621.007556247659
||||| RAMCO CEMENTS642.353.00%BUY21/02/19642.350.00592.00555.006465568165
||||| RNAM185.2019.50%BUY21/02/19185.200.00147.00127.001641348168
||||| SUN TV587.603.50%BUY14/02/19579.101.47518.00486.006144877159
||||| TATA STEEL498.851.50%BUY07/02/19489.052.00460.30441.005244417359

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in positive at 10790.
- AD was 2:1

- support / swing low 10600 resistance 11000
- above levels have been tested multiple times
- if 10600 breaks, markets likely to retest 10000 (and break)
- first sign would be this current rally from 10600 stalling in next few days

February 20, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, nifty closed 1.24% in positive at 10735
- the recovery was from 10600 (double bottom support)
- VIX down 8%

- AD was 11:7

Avoid fundamentals




February 19, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 10604
- AD was 10:7

- midcap, small cap indices closed in positive

- markets at double bottom support at 10600
- signs of buying seen in past 2 out of 3 days on nifty (shadows on candlesticks)

- option writing: highest OI seen at 10800 CE in weekly series and 11000 CE in monthly series



Not posting intraday charts due to some issue with missing bars.

The secret of not getting trapped




ValueQuest India Moat Fund Performance (Prof Bakshi)

February 18, 2019

We have grey hairs and have seen this before

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.8% in negative at 10640
- AD was 1:2
- VIX jumped by 9% and is now at 18%

- broader market is rangebound
- markets now at lower end of range
- support region 10500-10600

- OI highest at 10800 CE in weekly series and 11000 CE in monthly series

The Nifty is No Longer a Play on the Indian Economy

The Nifty has fallen far behind the Indian economy

Over the last ten years, India’s GDP growth (in nominal terms) has averaged 13% per annum whilst the most popular benchmark index in India, the Nifty, has seen its earnings grow at a mere 8% per annum. In fact, in nine out of the last ten years, the Nifty’s earnings growth has trailed nominal GDP by a country mile (the only exception being FY11). In America on the other hand, nominal GDP growth over the past decade has been barely 4% and yet the S&P 500’s earnings has grown at 12% per annum, a full 400bps faster than the Nifty (even without converting the Nifty’s earnings to US dollars)! Why do the benchmark indices in India and America display completely opposite trends (when compared to the GDP growth of their respective economies) and what implications does that have for investors?

Read more at http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy

Bottom fishing explained

February 16, 2019

When a stock breaks a 10 year support... from 2500 to 114... long term investing?


Seeing is Believing ... but thinking challenges your belief

NSE circular: Collection of Net Option Value for In/Out of the money options in Cash

Now you cannot take away premium on option writing for certain contracts...

In nifty options, this will impact strike prices 20% above and below current spot price.

Read more at https://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/CMPT40245.pdf

CNX Midcap weekly chart

- good example of support become resistance and vice versa



NIFTY weekly technicals

- markets trading sideways for few weeks
- H&S formation clearly visible
- Right shoulder being formed

- neckline/ support 10000
- view invalidated above 11200


BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- support 26400 resistance 27700


February 15, 2019

Open positions and stoploss


StockClose% ChangeBought atBuy DateRemarksTrailing StoplossReturns %
DABUR434.30-1.3441926/11/2018Hold long positions4303.64
HAVELLS688.65-0.7966613/11/2018Exit trade6903.38
RELIANCE1244.451.65112716/11/2018Hold long positions120010.38