May 23, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in negative at 10430
- AD was 7:10 (not bad)
- option writing resistance 10800

Brokers oppose SEBI's derivatives trading hours extension; all eyes on Friday meet now

..The brokers are unhappy with the move and seek trading in indices trade till midnight instead. “We have given a detailed presentation on derivatives to the Sebi. It primarily focuses on not extending the trading timing of single future till midnight. SEBI has agreed to meet our representation on Friday,” Rajesh Baheti, President, Association of National Exchanges Members of India told Moneycontrol.

“Nowhere in the world single-stock derivatives trade without cash market availability. Actually, we are required to trade on the basis of world market volatility which requires indices to remain open for longer trading hours,” Baheti said.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/brokers-oppose-sebis-derivatives-trading-hours-extension-2573607.html

May 22, 2018

NIFTY options open interest distribution

- resistance 10800
- support 10500.. may break?



Source: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/option-chain#gs.H4YyhtQ

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10537
- AD was marginally positive
- option writing resistance 10800

Fuel prices at all time high - still waiting for Achhe Din?








We are all made from stars

Interesting table showing how elements formed in our solar system.



Read more at https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/1727-how-elements-are-formed

Open interest analysis

So, price action increasing in an uptrend and open interest on the rise is interpreted as new money coming into the market (reflecting new buyers); this is considered bullish. Now, if the price action is rising and the open interest is on the decline, short sellers covering their positions are causing the rally. Money is therefore leaving the marketplace; this is a bearish sign.

If prices are in a downtrend and open interest is on the rise, chartists know that new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will prove out a continuation of a downtrend and a bearish condition. Lastly, if the total open interest is falling off and prices are declining, the price decline is likely being caused by disgruntled long position holders being forced to liquidate their positions. Technicians view this scenario as a strong position technically because the downtrend will end once all the sellers have sold their positions.

112002_1.gif

Read more at https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/112002.asp

This can also be explained as:

PriceOIPosition
UPUPLong
DownUPShort
UPDownShort Covering
DownDownLong Unwinding


Shankar Sharma: Investing in India is like joining the madia

You can only enter, you can never exit. When things are good you get exit but when things are bad, the stock will be ‘limit-down’ for a few days.


'The market is one of illusionary liquidity. You have to factor that in your return expectation.'

With Karnataka election results out of the way and as several key states, including Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, prepare for assembly polls later this year ahead of the 2019 general election, Shankar Sharma, vice-chairman and joint managing director, First Global, advises investors to ignore all the noise around the elections.

In an uncharacteristically bullish tone, he tells Sachin Mampatta and Samie Modak why investors should buy if the market falls, why a coalition government is not the end of the world and how investing in India can be like joining the mafia. Edited excerpts:

Read more at http://www.rediff.com/business/interview/investing-in-india-is-like-joining-the-mafia/20180521.htm

May 21, 2018

Forget free stuff? Real life operational costs of a professional trader

I often get requests for sources on free data , free software and stuff . This from traders who are trading futures and options . Let me provide a breakup of what services I use .
I use end of day data from a vendor costing me 3000 per year . Real-time data costing around 30k per year . Options analysis software around 25k per year .
Comes to around Rs.5000 per month . Internet cost is around Rs.2000 per month with one major and one backup .
I use two laptops but those are fixed one time costs . Each laptop gets changed after 2-3 years .
So total infrastructure cost of my doing business is Rs.7000 per month .
Unless you can afford this bare minimum , you should not be in the business of trading FNO . Looking for free sources is time pass , not serious business .

My notes: I agree 100%... my expenses are approx. 4K pm on datafeed, backup internet, backup laptop etc. And the sorry/ sad part is traders who are looking for free stuff have already lost bigtime in the markets.

20 day swing signals

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| ABAN OFFSHORE156.55-3.00%SELL14/05/18160.902.70176.70183.001861583038
||||| ABCAPITAL143.85-2.00%SELL11/05/18151.404.99166.00166.001641481830
||||| ACE163.80-5.50%SELL21/05/18163.800.00189.80204.002041681033
||||| AMBUJA CEMENTS208.05-1.00%SELL08/05/18229.459.33236.25252.002532322227
||||| APOLLO HOSPITAL983.50-3.00%SELL09/05/181045.505.931088.001148.00114810522034
||||| ASHOKA243.85-7.00%SELL21/05/18243.850.00284.95294.00295248828
||||| AVANTIFEED1953.00-4.00%SELL16/11/172432.6519.722478.002525.0025252146826
||||| BAJAJ AUTO2720.55-2.00%SELL21/05/182720.550.002929.803043.00297827461131
||||| BALKRISHNA IND1117.60-4.50%SELL10/05/181203.057.101255.101305.00135210571632
||||| BANDHANBNK468.80-2.00%SELL14/05/18479.952.32497.00522.005414691533
||||| BATA INDIA744.05-1.00%SELL21/05/18744.050.00802.70816.008177311839
||||| BEML951.80-7.00%SELL25/09/171673.9543.141198.401198.00117210182235
||||| BF UTILITY376.85-4.00%SELL30/01/18481.5521.74445.00445.004423852438
||||| BHARATFORG694.25-3.50%SELL21/05/18694.250.00751.50784.007826991130
||||| BOMBAY DYEING257.65-4.50%SELL21/05/18257.650.00321.90321.003172411939
||||| CAPACITE297.85-10.00%SELL21/05/18297.850.00364.95373.00374304827
||||| CASTROLIND166.60-3.50%SELL25/04/18196.1015.04184.00203.002141921122
||||| CENTURY TEXTILES1006.95-5.50%SELL02/05/181143.9011.971128.801274.00126511441729
||||| CHENNPETRO281.90-2.50%SELL25/01/18419.6532.82312.20336.003593151727
||||| DAAWAT83.45-2.00%SELL11/05/1887.404.5292.4594.8099862233
||||| DBL1085.20-5.50%SELL21/05/181085.200.001247.501247.00121810142340
||||| DBREALTY47.70-6.00%SELL15/05/1851.106.6564.7072.5072471833
||||| DMART1345.45-5.00%SELL21/05/181345.450.001518.801534.00153513261833
||||| DR REDDY1893.05-4.00%SELL10/05/181989.604.852094.052180.00218020541124
||||| EIHOTEL161.85-3.00%SELL21/05/18161.850.00190.45196.002131601535
||||| EROSMEDIA128.70-2.00%SELL02/02/18190.8532.56168.90177.001871641322
||||| FCONSUMER54.80-4.50%SELL24/01/1865.8516.7861.9563.0063542840
||||| FEDERAL BANK80.90-1.50%SELL10/05/1889.409.51105.00105.00102891025
||||| GATI99.15-3.50%SELL21/05/1899.150.00116.80136.60137891738
||||| GIC HSG FIN376.40-2.00%SELL16/05/18387.902.96427.25436.004353751033
||||| GMBREW855.35-16.50%SELL21/05/18855.350.001105.901135.0011779891228
||||| GOACARBON693.05-3.00%SELL25/04/18825.5016.04776.70902.0010797962732
||||| GODREJAGRO602.35-2.50%SELL09/05/18679.9511.41710.35738.00738638524
||||| GODREJ PROP747.55-3.50%SELL21/05/18747.550.00920.00920.008287051537
||||| GRANULES89.00-6.00%SELL03/05/18104.9015.16106.70113.551141033033
||||| GRASIM1035.85-2.50%SELL21/05/181035.850.001108.851114.00111510451132
||||| HATHWAY26.90-5.50%SELL25/04/1832.5017.2334.6039.4043321127
||||| HCL INSYS44.10-2.50%SELL02/05/1850.7513.1052.6057.2557512632
||||| HDFC LTD1819.20-1.50%SELL21/05/181819.200.001941.901941.00189817921537
||||| HERO MOTOR3492.90-1.50%SELL11/05/183618.303.473685.003776.00382535121330
||||| HINDUSTAN COPPER67.95-1.50%SELL21/05/1867.950.0076.8078.5082632841
||||| HINDUSTAN ZINC289.55-2.50%SELL04/05/18303.504.60305.60334.003363011631
||||| IDFC49.80-3.00%SELL21/05/1849.800.0057.1060.5060491334
||||| IDFCBANK40.25-1.50%SELL02/02/1852.7023.6246.4049.2551471922
||||| IFCI17.30-1.50%SELL02/02/1825.3531.7620.0520.6522191423
||||| IPCA LAB667.00-4.00%SELL21/05/18667.000.00737.75760.007606561136
||||| JAI CORPORATION130.30-2.00%SELL10/05/18143.259.04153.30166.001711352533
||||| JAIN IRRIGATION98.95-2.50%SELL10/05/18106.407.00114.15118.101181061227
||||| JKPAPER128.00-6.50%SELL16/05/18138.457.55153.60153.001521351029
||||| JK TYRE140.40-5.00%SELL10/05/18145.253.34155.70161.001711482834
||||| JPASSOCIAT14.20-18.50%SELL14/05/1817.1517.2020.3520.9522191627
||||| JSW STEEL309.25-3.00%SELL21/05/18309.250.00342.75342.003312882342
||||| KARUR VYSYA BANK97.15-2.00%SELL18/01/18114.9015.45107.25110.001101001434
||||| KEC365.85-4.00%SELL15/05/18380.753.91421.00438.004433861932
||||| KSCL486.25-1.00%SELL10/05/18493.051.38518.00548.005554852237
||||| MAJESCO504.50-3.00%SELL21/05/18504.500.00555.00581.005824712641
||||| MEGHMANI ORGANICS LTD.97.10-2.50%SELL21/05/1897.100.00114.35114.35107842742
||||| MGL841.80-2.00%SELL10/11/171126.1025.25887.35918.0010298861627
||||| MINDACORP172.50-2.00%SELL21/05/18172.500.00190.85207.002081752639
||||| MRF73102.10-1.00%SELL10/05/1874881.452.3876599.0081425.0081426725421536
||||| NATCO PHARMA763.20-2.50%SELL31/01/18946.9019.40818.00830.008307501634
||||| NCC97.80-6.50%SELL10/05/18123.0520.52134.95136.701361171124
||||| NIIT LTD94.95-5.50%SELL21/05/1894.950.00110.80124.801251002035
||||| NMDC113.40-1.00%SELL31/01/18140.3019.17122.30126.001261161431
||||| NOCIL193.00-2.00%SELL10/05/18205.456.06222.95226.002321941131
||||| NTPC164.40-1.00%SELL21/05/18164.400.00173.95176.001801662237
||||| PHOENIX LTD712.702.00%BUY19/04/18626.7013.72598.10591.006535669275
||||| PRAJ INDUSTRIES92.35-4.00%SELL21/05/1892.350.00105.00105.00100813546
||||| RAIN222.60-7.50%SELL01/02/18363.1038.69344.35354.004053142126
||||| RAYMOND1007.65-3.50%SELL21/05/181007.650.001142.001153.0011529021437
||||| RBLBANK498.20-2.00%SELL21/05/18498.200.00523.95545.005454751439
||||| RCF67.50-4.50%SELL10/05/1874.509.4078.1084.908573625
||||| RIIL403.20-2.50%SELL30/01/18527.5523.57453.40470.004814351428
||||| SANWARIA14.30-4.50%SELL07/05/1817.4518.0517.9520.4524181527
||||| SBILIFE655.20-1.50%SELL15/05/18678.903.49719.00774.007756741431
||||| SDBL260.60-4.50%SELL21/05/18260.600.00322.80322.002922272643
||||| SHAKTIPUMP553.00-10.50%SELL16/05/18630.6012.31726.85763.00790548528
||||| SOBHA511.40-3.50%SELL17/01/18567.909.95548.90562.005684911334
||||| SPARC353.75-5.50%SELL14/05/18390.309.36419.60437.004383751529
||||| SREINFRA71.65-4.00%SELL10/05/1878.258.4382.7594.9095742333
||||| STRTECH306.60-3.00%SELL21/05/18306.600.00341.95365.003653152738
||||| SUN PHARMA443.75-4.50%SELL10/05/18497.2010.75519.25539.005314961728
||||| SURYAROSNI372.65-6.00%SELL23/03/18372.00-0.17429.80444.00445385829
||||| TATA MOTORS DVR175.35-3.00%SELL15/05/18180.953.09202.25202.002081842234
||||| TATA POWER78.80-2.50%SELL10/05/1882.003.9086.2089.558979926
||||| TATA SPONGE1041.90-2.50%SELL21/05/181041.900.001137.001143.0012499291440
||||| TINPLATE191.60-2.00%SELL10/05/18214.2510.57226.45259.002601881428
||||| TORRENT POWER218.60-2.50%SELL02/02/18261.4516.39244.90250.002532272233
||||| UJJIVAN380.40-3.50%SELL21/05/18380.400.00434.75434.004133432742
||||| UNITED PHOSPHORUS682.55-3.50%SELL30/04/18729.856.48740.00774.007757251934
||||| VIP INDUSTRIES369.95-5.00%SELL21/05/18369.950.00428.00428.004413131639
||||| VISAKAIND673.65-5.50%SELL21/05/18673.650.00777.00812.008046502237
||||| WELCORP129.10-2.00%SELL19/03/18148.6013.12150.85150.001571311936
||||| ZEE ENTERTAINMENT554.10-2.00%SELL06/02/18571.753.09604.90609.006025691534