August 20, 2018

Nerve racking to see people short in the market @JeetSituationM




Kerala Floods: Bipolar Impact on Stocks

Bi-polar impact of Kerala deluge: big win coming for some & permanent loss for others.

Big win : Reconstruction, Supply n Leverage

– Cement, roofing, pipe, electrical, wood and plywood cos will have an unprecedented demand starting 15days for next 3months at least fm the staggering amount of reconstruction needed. A fortnight of poor offtake that too in midst of monsoon low season is nothing.

Cement – Ramco,Ind Cement
Wires – Vguard
Roofing- Everest, Visaka
Steel – JSW n others
Electrical – Havells, CG
Other- HIL, Cera

– Lower income households and MSMEs are the biggest users of Gold loans cos and therefore a dramatically higher demand for loans can be expected. On the other hand there will be rising delinquency but as collateral(LTV sub 75pct) is gold, a strong n liquid asset, the net impact will be NIL.

– PV sales will rocket as cars in thousands have been damaged beyond repair. Maruti n Mahindra

– Roads estimated over 5k km have been damaged and need repair or rebuild at express pace. Tar/ Bitumen manufacturers will see demand surge

– Organised retail chains like Big Bazaar n Reliance Mart are running out of stock. In ST their ability to manage supply chain will stand out compared to mom-pop shops.

– Massive medical demand of anti-infection, gastroenteritis, antibacterial etc. Cipla, DRL, Abbott best placed

The ones really impacted are:

Read more at http://alphaideas.in/2018/08/20/kerala-floods-bipolar-impact-on-stocks/

NIFTY options open interest distribution

- trend is up
- support 11400-11000



Source: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/option-chain#gs.eLGfu_o

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in positive at 11551
- AD was flat
- option writing support jumps to 11400 from 11000
- highest increase in OI was in 11500 put. Will this be new support?

Why do professional poker players make good traders?

..The most successful poker players and investors know what it feels like to take a serious risk, and they don’t let it rattle them too much. Maybe they’ve even “pushed the rent money into the middle of the table,” Brown says.

“People who haven’t had that experience find it very difficult to separate the decision from the result,” he said. In other words, both gamblers and traders must be able to judge their decision-making process impartially and understand why it worked or didn’t. If they can’t do that, they’ll just start imitating the trades and bets that have made them money in the past. That’s a quick way to “blow up” in both investing and poker. And if you did that? “You’re just doubling up until you lose,” he said. “But it’s a very human strategy.”

In both fields, it helps to have what Brown calls a “zero memory”attitude, meaning that you quickly forget your defeats and don’t let them throw you for a loop. “You can’t let recent events affect your thinking,” Brown said. That goes for both a bad hand and a bad trade. “People tend to make very different decisions after gains and after losses, and that’s just fatal to trading,” Brown said. “People tend to get more stubborn after taking big losses and stubbornness is a real problem.”

Read more at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-poker-sharks-have-in-common-with-wall-street-traders-2018-01-18

August 18, 2018

NSE advance decline line

- the horrendous selloff in stocks this year has taken a pause
- so far, rally has broad based participation
- but NIFTY PE is around 28

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly and monthly charts
- still cannot understand why people are short in this market and adding more
- 11000 expected to hold this month and maybe next month also
- stiff resistance expected around 12000

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily, weekly and monthly charts
- support 27600-27000

August 17, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up
- today NF closed 0.8% in positive at 11471
- AD was 5:3
- option writing support 11000

August 16, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in negative at 11385
- trading range was within prev day's range
- AD was 7:12 (not bad)
- option writing support 11000

Why The Rupee Fall To 70 Is Not A Big Deal - excellent article

Is there a big problem if the USD has appreciated so that it’s Rs. 70 to a dollar? There are some implications, but it’s somehow not that dramatic as its made out to be. We wrote about a few myths about the falling rupee when it did a dive last time in 2013 (Read post: Six myths about a falling rupee). It’s time to look at the rupee in context again.

Why should the rupee depreciate? Or stay strong?

Read more at https://capitalmind.in/2018/08/opinion-why-the-rupee-fall-to-70-is-not-a-big-deal

August 15, 2018

S&P 500 - previous resistance to now offer support


18 Dead, 3 Critical , and 1 Injured?

Stocks at all time high today

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| BATA INDIA1004.552.00%Bullish18/06/18816.5023.03907.10818.009328138878
||||| DABUR INDIA453.002.50%BUY30/07/18393.4515.14422.00370.004283668479
||||| EXIDE INDUSTRIES292.101.00%Bullish15/03/18217.5534.27259.60259.002802537569
||||| IBVENTURES746.654.50%Bullish05/04/18286.95160.20585.10474.006014529588
||||| INFIBEAM198.901.00%BUY20/07/18167.8518.50175.50156.001881498980
||||| INFOSYS1408.300.00%Bullish24/05/181221.0015.341347.501309.00139412688369
||||| IPAPPM458.95-2.50%Bullish26/07/18334.9537.02349.20308.003533037477
||||| JSW STEEL341.100.00%Bullish31/07/18330.403.24321.85293.003332946663
||||| LTTS1531.901.50%Bullish24/07/181458.005.071405.001251.00155911928167
||||| NIITTECH1337.353.50%BUY24/07/181218.859.721225.101074.00128610227770
||||| PAGE IND33231.852.50%BUY28/03/1822684.5546.5029020.0027719.0029676275747974
||||| PFIZER2898.252.00%Bullish20/04/182234.2029.722650.002524.00274724918575
||||| TCS2003.550.00%Bullish12/04/181569.6327.641945.001928.00201518417463
||||| UNITED BREWERIES1336.052.50%Bullish17/04/181084.2523.221089.251031.00120910329373
||||| VINATIORGA1357.201.50%Bullish14/05/18951.3042.67955.00910.009989109387
15 rows
Av return = 32.75

Chat transcripts with ICICI chatbot




August 14, 2018

Stocks at 52 week high and low

Stocks at 52 week high: 

ABFRL - ALBERTDAVD - BALAXI - BATAINDIA - DABUR - EXIDEIND - GALLISPAT - GMMPFAUDLR - IBULISL - IBVENTURES -INFIBEAM - INFY - IPAPPM - ITC - JSWSTEEL - 
LINCOLN - LTTS - LUMAXTECH - NELCO - NEXTMEDIA - NIITTECH - OLECTRA - 
PAGEIND - PERSISTENT - PFIZER - SUNPHARMA - TCI - TCIEXP - TCS - UBL - 

Stocks at 52 week low: 

 CASTROLIND - CCL - CENTUM - DBREALTY - DPSCLTD - ECLERX - HITECHCORP - 
HSIL - INDOTECH - KAJARIACER - LAKPRE - MAXVIL - MCLEODRUSS - MHRIL - 
RBL - REDINGTON - SIMPLEXINF - SKIPPER - SPMLINFRA - SREINFRA - 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in positive at 11435
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11000; may increase to 11400

The Fall & Fall of the Indian Rupee



Source: http://alphaideas.in

My notes: irrespective of whichever govt has come, our currency has always lost value.