How position size affects your returns ( by Keshav)

Here is the result sheet of a coin toss game. 

Let's say the rules for the game are: (1) we start with $1,000, (2) we always bet that heads come up, (3) we can bet any amount that we have left, (4) if tails comes up, we lose our bet, (5) if heads comes up, we do not lose our bet; instead, we win twice as much as we bet, and (6) the coin is fair and so the probability of heads is 50%. This game is similar to some trading methods.

The result of tossing the coin is same for each bet size. But the returns on your bet varies drastically. 

So what i can conclude from this is, it doesn't matter how well you can catch the lows and highs of the market. Its all in managing your risk and sizing your positions. 

Source : http://www.seykota.com/

Trade logs by Keshav

* Exited from long position at 10900. Taken at 10850.

* Took a short trade at 10900. Sl 11000.

 * Risk taken for this trade is 0.5%

*  Waiting patiently for a trend to come.

The Untold Story of A Self-Made Investing Millionaire

...unlike most people, the story of Anne does not end with her retirement at age 51, with $21,000. That’s what most of us are looking for, right? A kitty good enough so that we hang our shoes and suits and retire to a happy, peaceful life?

But Anne’s story continued for another 50+ years, till 1995, when she died at an age slightly above 101. By that time, her investment portfolio was worth $22 million! That’s about $36 million in today’s money.

Now, if you are awed with that number, please note that Anne created this $22 million from $21,000 at an investment rate of return of just 14.6%. This was almost double the US S&P 500 index’s annual return of 7.5% during that period.

So, how did Anne do it? Was she a super investor?

One factor that helped her was the $3,100 ‘annual’ pension that she received after retirement, a large part of which she invested. It was a petty sum, to say the least.

But, as per Clark, the real heroes of Anne’s story of wealth creation were three – frugality, longevity and compound interest.

Although she was neither born into great wealth, nor did she generate it during her working life, Anne did possess these three very important things.

Read more at https://www.safalniveshak.com/story-of-self-made-investing-millionaire

This PRABHAT DAIRY non sense has to stop

This Prabhat Dairy non sense has to stop: Company has sold a business which contributes 98% revenue and promoter will decide what to do with cash!!

Basically, they have sold the company. Let there be open offer. Let the shareholders decide what to do.

— Anuj Singhal (@_anujsinghal) January 22, 2019

Surprised to see stock open gap up ... .there is no good news at all... pity the buyer

Not surprised to see stock close 14% in negative

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 10923
- AD was 5:11

- past 5 days, nifty is forming small "hammer" patterns
- trading range is extremely narrow

- option writing support 10900 resistance 11000

WIPRO bonus history

Trading signals

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<

Stock name	Close	% Ch	20 Day Swing Indicator						Last Month's		RSI
			Trend	Date	Price	Return %	Fixed SL	Trailing SL	High	Low	5 D	14 D
||||| ALLAHABAD BANK	42.65	-2.50%	SELL	21/01/19	42.65	0.00	46.90	47.90	50	42	20	38
||||| APOLLO TYRE	216.60	-0.50%	SELL	16/01/19	218.85	1.03	240.70	237.00	245	221	17	36
||||| ARVIND	92.35	-0.50%	SELL			0.00	0.00	100.95	107	96	23	32
||||| AVANTIFEED	366.75	-1.50%	SELL	21/01/19	366.75	0.00	403.40	398.00	419	338	28	43
||||| BANDHANBNK	426.60	-3.00%	SELL	09/01/19	455.40	6.32	500.90	563.00	584	462	18	32
||||| BBTC	1228.05	-1.50%	SELL	06/12/18	1308.30	6.13	1439.10	1348.00	1405	1182	15	34
||||| CANFINHOME	264.25	-1.50%	SELL	21/01/19	264.25	0.00	290.65	297.00	297	226	19	41
||||| CENTRAL BANK	31.95	-8.50%	SELL	21/01/19	31.95	0.00	35.10	37.95	38	28	10	36
||||| COAL INDIA	229.00	0.00%	SELL	01/11/18	261.10	12.29	287.20	254.00	254	228	19	30
||||| DENABANK	13.35	-1.00%	SELL	03/01/19	14.40	7.29	15.80	18.45	18	15	16	29
||||| DMART	1351.30	-2.00%	SELL	14/01/19	1397.40	3.30	1537.10	1678.00	1699	1473	16	30
||||| FRETAIL	422.70	-5.00%	SELL	02/01/19	468.50	9.78	515.35	575.00	575	484	19	28
||||| GRAPHITE	684.15	-2.00%	SELL	19/09/18	953.95	28.28	1049.30	799.00	945	702	31	31
||||| GRUH	226.80	-2.00%	SELL	08/01/19	255.25	11.15	280.75	333.00	335	275	16	27
||||| HEG	3377.50	-4.50%	SELL	05/12/18	4030.25	16.20	4433.25	3928.00	4208	3480	20	28
||||| HERO MOTOR	2794.25	-3.50%	SELL	07/01/19	2957.95	5.53	3253.70	3301.00	3380	2982	18	30
||||| INDIABULL REAL ESTATE	80.60	-5.00%	SELL	21/01/19	80.60	0.00	88.65	92.75	96	69	8	36
||||| IDEA	32.85	-6.50%	SELL	30/11/18	35.30	6.94	38.80	38.30	39	32	15	30
||||| INFOSYS	745.00	1.50%	BUY	13/12/18	697.75	6.77	627.95	637.00	714	637	88	74
||||| IOLCP	224.20	5.50%	BUY	05/11/18	140.55	59.52	126.45	161.00	177	142	88	79
||||| JAIN IRRIGATION	61.85	-4.00%	SELL	05/12/18	63.75	2.98	70.10	70.60	71	58	21	36
||||| KEC	270.75	-1.00%	SELL	14/01/19	279.40	3.10	307.30	307.00	316	265	15	35
||||| KOTAK BANK	1267.60	2.00%	BUY	21/01/19	1267.60	0.00	1140.80	1198.00	1346	1171	77	61
||||| NIIT LTD	93.05	2.00%	BUY	12/11/18	78.40	18.69	70.55	82.00	95	82	91	69
||||| NIITTECH	1269.10	3.50%	BUY	14/01/19	1187.70	6.85	1068.90	1102.00	1166	1031	92	74
||||| NMDC	90.25	-0.50%	SELL	16/11/18	100.75	10.42	110.80	99.50	98	89	27	38
||||| PNBHOUSING	879.05	-0.50%	SELL	21/01/19	879.05	0.00	966.95	970.00	1008	876	27	38
||||| RELIANCE COM	13.10	-1.50%	SELL	03/01/19	13.50	2.96	14.85	15.05	19	14	26	38
||||| SAIL	49.35	-0.50%	SELL	11/07/18	77.40	36.24	85.10	56.80	57	49	21	35
||||| SEQUENT	87.10	4.50%	BUY	09/11/18	61.50	41.63	55.35	63.50	74	62	90	77
||||| SHANKARA	492.75	-2.50%	SELL	05/09/18	1449.60	66.01	1594.55	558.00	665	490	21	29
||||| SOUTHBANK	14.20	-8.50%	SELL	21/01/19	14.20	0.00	15.60	16.15	17	15	15	33
||||| SHRIRAM TRANSPORT	1114.70	-1.50%	SELL	21/01/19	1114.70	0.00	1226.15	1258.00	1291	1052	19	38
||||| SUVEN LIFE	213.00	-2.00%	SELL	10/12/18	222.00	4.05	244.20	239.00	243	216	11	31
||||| UNITED BREWERIES	1485.75	5.00%	BUY	18/12/18	1375.90	7.98	1238.30	1313.00	1412	1185	89	76

35 rows
Av return = 10.90

Candlestick cheat sheet

NIFTY PE ratio chart

Nifty P/E Ratio & Returns: Detailed Analysis of 20-years (1999-2019)

Read more at https://stableinvestor.com/2019/01/nifty-pe-ratio-returns-analysis-updated.html

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 21-JAN-2019 

ALBK

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.5% in positive at 10962
- could not cross 11000 today
- AD was negative at 5:12
- many indices closed in negative today

- VIX up 10%
- option writing support 10800 resistance 11000

- RELIANCE, an index heavy weight was up 4.4%
- if it was flat, nifty would have been lower by 80 points

Open positions

Stock	Close	% Change	Bought at	Buy Date	Remarks	Trailing Stoploss	Returns %
BAJFINANCE	2542.90	0.28	2402	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	2500	5.86
ADANIPORTS	399.30	1.22	346	15/11/2018	Hold long positions	370	15.34
COLPAL	1310.80	-1.19	1148	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	1280	14.22
BRITANNIA	3171.35	-1.11	2974	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	3060	6.64
DABUR	424.10	0.90	419	26/11/2018	Hold long positions	410	1.21
HAVELLS	677.50	0.20	666	13/11/2018	Hold long positions	660	1.70
HDFC	2006.85	0.11	1825	13/11/2018	Hold long positions	1940	9.98
HDFCBANK	2130.25	-0.10	2004	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	2080	6.28
RELIANCE	1184.35	4.40	1127	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	1080	5.05
SIEMENS	1054.75	-0.94	981	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	1020	7.47