VFMDirect.in

February 26, 2020

3 rules of trading... very difficult

February is the new May

February is the new May. #DowJones pic.twitter.com/keL4hL1K8v
— George DSouza (@geoneld) February 26, 2020

February 25, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11813
- AD was 7:11

- since NOV, markets doing timepass around 12000 levels
- net change is zero

2008 once more? The world may be headed for another global economic crisis

...For some years now, many analysts have believed that the next major global crisis would start in China, because it was suspected to be hugely overleveraged; equally, if not more important, nobody knew what was really going on. However, with central banks keeping the money feed so easy, markets all over the world kept rising.

Judging from the way equity markets are behaving today, could that time have come?

It is, perhaps, significant that the long rally in US equities since the taper tantrum in 2015 was interrupted only when Trump began braying about a trade war with China in 2018. The Dow fell 15% in a couple of weeks, highlighting the fact that the health of the US economy—and certainly US equity markets—is very tightly linked to the China relationship

Read more at https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/2008-once-more-the-world-may-be-headed-for-another-global-economic-crisis/1877962/

Does MARUTI have any plans in the EV market?

February 24, 2020

Hedged options margins to come down by 70%

Original SEBI document is at https://www.sebi.gov.in/legal/circulars/feb-2020/review-of-margin-framework-for-cash-and-derivatives-segments-except-for-commodity-derivatives-segment-_46058.html

Detailed but simple explanation at https://tradingqna.com/t/new-margin-framework-is-here-to-benefit-hedged-positions/70652

This will benefit traders of covered calls and puts massively.

Stocks at 52 week low

ABB - ACC - ANDPAPER - APARINDS - APCOTEXIND - APOLSINHOT - ARSHIYA -

ASAL - BANDHANBNK - BASF - BHARATGEAR - CANBK - CENTUM - CLEDUCATE -

CSBBANK - DBCORP - DCBBANK - DEEPIND - DELTAMAGNT - DVL - ELGIEQUIP -

ENIL - EXCELINDUS - FCONSUMER - FLFL - GAYAPROJ - GET&D - GICHSGFIN -

HEROMOTOCO - HINDPETRO - HINDZINC - IFBIND - INDSWFTLAB - ISFT -

JAYAGROGN - JHS - KAMDHENU - KDDL - KIRLOSENG - LICHSGFIN -

LOKESHMACH - LT - MADRASFERT - MANUGRAPH - MASKINVEST - MENONBE -

MODIRUBBER - MUNJALSHOW - NATIONALUM - NBCC - NKIND - OLECTRA -

ONMOBILE - ORIENTHOT - RANEHOLDIN - SARLAPOLY - SATIN - SHARDACROP -

SHEMAROO - SOBHA - SOTL - SPAL - SWSOLAR - SYNDIBANK - TEJASNET -

TEXRAIL - VARDHACRLC - WHEELS - WIPL -

Some one is super bullish CBOE VIX will spike up

The "50 Cent" $VIX options trading continues as a trader buys 50,000 Mar 23 $VIX calls for 47 cents. Plus, the S&P 500 Index sells-off midday on reports of new coronavirus cases. Host Michael Palmer pic.twitter.com/p6Tt5nJxde
— Cboe (@CBOE) February 20, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2% in negative at 11838
- AD was 5:13

- VIX jumped 26%

- highest OI was at 12000 PE now it has shifted to 12000 CE

- next support 11600
- resistance at 12200... significant top?

- note trend is down on intraday charts from Friday

NIFTY open interest distribution

- highest OI is at 12000 PE
- if this breaks, expect more shorts to build up

- next series (weekly) support 11700

What is your Uncle Point?

The uncle point is a place where a trader has had enough pain or draw-down and decides that the trade is no longer working and throws in the towel. ... The uncle point is usually the point where you know something is truly going wrong with your system and you take action and get out.

Learn to be paranoid .. always

https://t.co/KV4RibiIWK
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) February 24, 2020

February 21, 2020

BANKNIFTY charts

- trend is down
- swing high 31500
- close above swing high will be bullish
- support 29500

With kplswing indicator
- arrows denote signals
- grey line is fast SL

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- last 2 weeks, nifty closes flat
- markets trading in rising wedge
- retest of lower trendline possible?

Impact of coronavirus on supply chains (and busness)

The biggest factor that's not understood is the non linearity of supply chains. A 2 week total shut down *does not* mean a two week delay in products to consumer. This is very different from the tariff impacts, where pricing was adjusted.
— Dan McMurtrie (@SuperMugatu) February 20, 2020

Full thread at https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu/status/1230562561201819650

February 20, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 12080
- AD was flat

- option writing support 12000 resistance 12200

This is the best description of #Aadhaar I have ever heard -

This number belongs to this fingerprint [with a probability threshold]. https://t.co/5epyhr6e5N
— V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் (@iam_anandv) February 20, 2020

BTW.. it is not a proof of citizenship... the UIDAI website makes this abundantly clear. In fact, foreigners can also apply if they are resident in India for more than 6 months.

February 19, 2020

How can one submit false biometrics?

Sometimes it becomes necessary to cancel the Aadhaar number when it is found that a resident has obtained it by submitting false biometrics or documents. It is a routine quality improvement process that UIDAI takes up regularly. 11/n
— Aadhaar (@UIDAI) February 19, 2020

This is the best garbage UIDAi can come up with.... this also means it is possible to cancel one's Aadhar number.

Note that there is no provision for cancelling a deceased person's Aadhar number.

Stocks at all time highs

ABBOTINDIA

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.1% in positive at 12130
- AD was 2:1

- timepass around 12000 continues
- it has been more than 3 months with nifty sometimes closing above 12000 and sometimes below
- the markets have clearly been directionless though trading in a big range