January 23, 2019

How position size affects your returns ( by Keshav)

Here is the result sheet of a coin toss game. 

Let's say the rules for the game are: (1) we start with $1,000, (2) we always bet that heads come up, (3) we can bet any amount that we have left, (4) if tails comes up, we lose our bet, (5) if heads comes up, we do not lose our bet; instead, we win twice as much as we bet, and (6) the coin is fair and so the probability of heads is 50%. This game is similar to some trading methods.


The result of tossing the coin is same for each bet size. But the returns on your bet varies drastically. 

So what i can conclude from this is, it doesn't matter how well you can catch the lows and highs of the market. Its all in managing your risk and sizing your positions. 


Trade logs by Keshav

* Exited from long position at 10900. Taken at 10850.

* Took a short trade at 10900. Sl 11000.

 * Risk taken for this trade is 0.5%

*  Waiting patiently for a trend to come.


The Untold Story of A Self-Made Investing Millionaire

...unlike most people, the story of Anne does not end with her retirement at age 51, with $21,000. That’s what most of us are looking for, right? A kitty good enough so that we hang our shoes and suits and retire to a happy, peaceful life?

But Anne’s story continued for another 50+ years, till 1995, when she died at an age slightly above 101. By that time, her investment portfolio was worth $22 million! That’s about $36 million in today’s money.

Now, if you are awed with that number, please note that Anne created this $22 million from $21,000 at an investment rate of return of just 14.6%. This was almost double the US S&P 500 index’s annual return of 7.5% during that period.

So, how did Anne do it? Was she a super investor?

One factor that helped her was the $3,100 ‘annual’ pension that she received after retirement, a large part of which she invested. It was a petty sum, to say the least.

But, as per Clark, the real heroes of Anne’s story of wealth creation were three – frugality, longevity and compound interest.

Although she was neither born into great wealth, nor did she generate it during her working life, Anne did possess these three very important things.

Read more at https://www.safalniveshak.com/story-of-self-made-investing-millionaire

January 22, 2019

This PRABHAT DAIRY non sense has to stop

Surprised to see stock open gap up ... .there is no good news at all... pity the buyer


Not surprised to see stock close 14% in negative


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 10923
- AD was 5:11

- past 5 days, nifty is forming small "hammer" patterns
- trading range is extremely narrow

- option writing support 10900 resistance 11000

WIPRO bonus history

Trading signals

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<
Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| ALLAHABAD BANK42.65-2.50%SELL21/01/1942.650.0046.9047.9050422038
||||| APOLLO TYRE216.60-0.50%SELL16/01/19218.851.03240.70237.002452211736
||||| ARVIND92.35-0.50%SELL0.000.00100.95107962332
||||| AVANTIFEED366.75-1.50%SELL21/01/19366.750.00403.40398.004193382843
||||| BANDHANBNK426.60-3.00%SELL09/01/19455.406.32500.90563.005844621832
||||| BBTC1228.05-1.50%SELL06/12/181308.306.131439.101348.00140511821534
||||| CANFINHOME264.25-1.50%SELL21/01/19264.250.00290.65297.002972261941
||||| CENTRAL BANK31.95-8.50%SELL21/01/1931.950.0035.1037.9538281036
||||| COAL INDIA229.000.00%SELL01/11/18261.1012.29287.20254.002542281930
||||| DENABANK13.35-1.00%SELL03/01/1914.407.2915.8018.4518151629
||||| DMART1351.30-2.00%SELL14/01/191397.403.301537.101678.00169914731630
||||| FRETAIL422.70-5.00%SELL02/01/19468.509.78515.35575.005754841928
||||| GRAPHITE684.15-2.00%SELL19/09/18953.9528.281049.30799.009457023131
||||| GRUH226.80-2.00%SELL08/01/19255.2511.15280.75333.003352751627
||||| HEG3377.50-4.50%SELL05/12/184030.2516.204433.253928.00420834802028
||||| HERO MOTOR2794.25-3.50%SELL07/01/192957.955.533253.703301.00338029821830
||||| INDIABULL REAL ESTATE80.60-5.00%SELL21/01/1980.600.0088.6592.759669836
||||| IDEA32.85-6.50%SELL30/11/1835.306.9438.8038.3039321530
||||| INFOSYS745.001.50%BUY13/12/18697.756.77627.95637.007146378874
||||| IOLCP224.205.50%BUY05/11/18140.5559.52126.45161.001771428879
||||| JAIN IRRIGATION61.85-4.00%SELL05/12/1863.752.9870.1070.6071582136
||||| KEC270.75-1.00%SELL14/01/19279.403.10307.30307.003162651535
||||| KOTAK BANK1267.602.00%BUY21/01/191267.600.001140.801198.00134611717761
||||| NIIT LTD93.052.00%BUY12/11/1878.4018.6970.5582.0095829169
||||| NIITTECH1269.103.50%BUY14/01/191187.706.851068.901102.00116610319274
||||| NMDC90.25-0.50%SELL16/11/18100.7510.42110.8099.5098892738
||||| PNBHOUSING879.05-0.50%SELL21/01/19879.050.00966.95970.0010088762738
||||| RELIANCE COM13.10-1.50%SELL03/01/1913.502.9614.8515.0519142638
||||| SAIL49.35-0.50%SELL11/07/1877.4036.2485.1056.8057492135
||||| SEQUENT87.104.50%BUY09/11/1861.5041.6355.3563.5074629077
||||| SHANKARA492.75-2.50%SELL05/09/181449.6066.011594.55558.006654902129
||||| SOUTHBANK14.20-8.50%SELL21/01/1914.200.0015.6016.1517151533
||||| SHRIRAM TRANSPORT1114.70-1.50%SELL21/01/191114.700.001226.151258.00129110521938
||||| SUVEN LIFE213.00-2.00%SELL10/12/18222.004.05244.20239.002432161131
||||| UNITED BREWERIES1485.755.00%BUY18/12/181375.907.981238.301313.00141211858976
35 rows
Av return = 10.90

Candlestick cheat sheet

NIFTY PE ratio chart


Nifty P/E Ratio & Returns: Detailed Analysis of 20-years (1999-2019)

January 21, 2019

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 21-JAN-2019 
ALBK
ALBK chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.5% in positive at 10962
- could not cross 11000 today
- AD was negative at 5:12
- many indices closed in negative today

- VIX up 10%
- option writing support 10800 resistance 11000

- RELIANCE, an index heavy weight was up 4.4%
- if it was flat, nifty would have been lower by 80 points

January 19, 2019

Open positions


StockClose% ChangeBought atBuy DateRemarksTrailing StoplossReturns %
BAJFINANCE2542.900.28240216/11/2018Hold long positions25005.86
ADANIPORTS399.301.2234615/11/2018Hold long positions37015.34
COLPAL1310.80-1.19114816/11/2018Hold long positions128014.22
BRITANNIA3171.35-1.11297416/11/2018Hold long positions30606.64
DABUR424.100.9041926/11/2018Hold long positions4101.21
HAVELLS677.500.2066613/11/2018Hold long positions6601.70
HDFC2006.850.11182513/11/2018Hold long positions19409.98
HDFCBANK2130.25-0.10200416/11/2018Hold long positions20806.28
RELIANCE1184.354.40112716/11/2018Hold long positions10805.05
SIEMENS1054.75-0.9498116/11/2018Hold long positions10207.47