November 14, 2019

Stock charts

LAST updated: 14-NOV-2019 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.25% in positive at 11870
- AD was 7:11

- VIX down 6%

- option writing support 11600 resistance 12000

Trade for the process and not the money

Secret to wealth

This happens only in India...shut schools and then ask children to run

MANAGE RISK all the time

No market trends all the time. No range sustains all the time. No strategy works all the time. That's why you MANAGE RISK all the time!

Govt is desperate for income - 18% GST on HO salaries

November 13, 2019

What if RELIANCE was not up 3% today?

- RELIANCE was up 3% today
- but NIFTY closed 0.6% in negative
- if RELIANCE was flat
-  then NIFTY would have been another 60 points down


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11840
- AD was 7:11

- option writing support 11600 resistance 12000

Strange... NSE Advance Decline chart

November 11, 2019

Brokers OHLC charts/ data Mismatch and Stoploss / Limit Orders got executed wrongly

Indian Exchanges provides free Level 2 access to its members (Brokers/). Level 2 data contains the Last traded price, Top 5 Bid x Ask levels from the orderbook. The complete depth of the exchange orderbook is not exposed and currently, Level 2 data is restricted only up to 5 levels (depth of the market). Some brokers even provide Level 3 data to their premium clients to identify liquidity pools for their premium customers.

And Level 1 data that most of the data vendors/Websites use primarily gets only LTP, Bid Price, Bid Qty, Ask Price, ASK Qty only for the first level in the orderbook.

Both Level 1 and Level 2 data which is sent in realtime by the Indian Exchanges are not a real tick data instead they send consolidated 1-second data feed for Level 1 (snapshot data) and every broker in the country to receive snapshot Level 2/Level 3 data (consolidated data) which updates 2-4 every second (But not reports all the ticks).

A Tick is generated by the exchange whenever there is a change in LTP price or any order cancellations/order modifications are done in the orderbook it will be reported in the form of Tick data. Which exchange call it as a TBT feed (tick by tick data feed). And every second gigantic amount of ticks are generated every second which is humongous data to transmit over the internet in realtime

Currently, TBT feed is accessible only by the High-frequency trading firms where their servers are colocated to the exchange server to tap and process the data faster to execute their low latency trading strategies.


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11913
- AD was flat

- trading range was extremely small..

Grim Trigger Play in Maharashtra CM politics BJP vs Shiv Sena

A "Grim Trigger" (also called the grim strategy or just grim) is a trigger strategy for a repeated game.

Initially, a player using grim trigger will cooperate, but as soon as the opponent defects (thus satisfying the trigger condition), the player using grim trigger will defect for the remainder of the iterated game. Since a single defect by the opponent triggers defection forever, grim trigger is the most strictly unforgiving of strategies in an iterated game.


November 9, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- lot of tussle seen around 12000 levels
- weekly close above 12000 will be bullish sign

- weekly expiry shows highest OI at 12000 CE
- monthly expiry shows highest OI at 11600 PE
- difficult trading environment

- big spoiler: nifty PE ratio now around 28
- does not make sense for long term investors to enter now

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- swing low around 30000
- double top near 31000

- note rally from 27500 to 30500 has taken a longer time than the same fall
- this is not  a bullish sign

- weekly expiry shows highest OI at 30500 PE-30000  PE
- monthly expiry shows highest OI at 30000 PE
- above levels are expected to give support
- this means option writers are bullish

November 8, 2019

Avoid rent seekers


S Gurumurthy on demonetisation


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in negative at 11908
- AD was 7:11

- past  few days nifty is unable to sustain near day's highs
- yesterday's hanging man was a nice warning

- option writing support 11600 res 12000