February 20, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, nifty closed 1.24% in positive at 10735
- the recovery was from 10600 (double bottom support)
- VIX down 8%

- AD was 11:7

Avoid fundamentals

February 19, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 10604
- AD was 10:7

- midcap, small cap indices closed in positive

- markets at double bottom support at 10600
- signs of buying seen in past 2 out of 3 days on nifty (shadows on candlesticks)

- option writing: highest OI seen at 10800 CE in weekly series and 11000 CE in monthly series

Not posting intraday charts due to some issue with missing bars.

The secret of not getting trapped

ValueQuest India Moat Fund Performance (Prof Bakshi)

February 18, 2019

We have grey hairs and have seen this before

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.8% in negative at 10640
- AD was 1:2
- VIX jumped by 9% and is now at 18%

- broader market is rangebound
- markets now at lower end of range
- support region 10500-10600

- OI highest at 10800 CE in weekly series and 11000 CE in monthly series

The Nifty is No Longer a Play on the Indian Economy

The Nifty has fallen far behind the Indian economy

Over the last ten years, India’s GDP growth (in nominal terms) has averaged 13% per annum whilst the most popular benchmark index in India, the Nifty, has seen its earnings grow at a mere 8% per annum. In fact, in nine out of the last ten years, the Nifty’s earnings growth has trailed nominal GDP by a country mile (the only exception being FY11). In America on the other hand, nominal GDP growth over the past decade has been barely 4% and yet the S&P 500’s earnings has grown at 12% per annum, a full 400bps faster than the Nifty (even without converting the Nifty’s earnings to US dollars)! Why do the benchmark indices in India and America display completely opposite trends (when compared to the GDP growth of their respective economies) and what implications does that have for investors?

Read more at http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy

Bottom fishing explained

February 16, 2019

When a stock breaks a 10 year support... from 2500 to 114... long term investing?

Seeing is Believing ... but thinking challenges your belief

NSE circular: Collection of Net Option Value for In/Out of the money options in Cash

Now you cannot take away premium on option writing for certain contracts...

In nifty options, this will impact strike prices 20% above and below current spot price.

Read more at https://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/CMPT40245.pdf

CNX Midcap weekly chart

- good example of support become resistance and vice versa

NIFTY weekly technicals

- markets trading sideways for few weeks
- H&S formation clearly visible
- Right shoulder being formed

- neckline/ support 10000
- view invalidated above 11200

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- support 26400 resistance 27700

February 15, 2019

Open positions and stoploss

StockClose% ChangeBought atBuy DateRemarksTrailing StoplossReturns %
DABUR434.30-1.3441926/11/2018Hold long positions4303.64
HAVELLS688.65-0.7966613/11/2018Exit trade6903.38
RELIANCE1244.451.65112716/11/2018Hold long positions120010.38

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.2% in negative at 10724
- AD was 6:11

- volatility was high as markets broke a support and then rallied towards close
- this rally was not reflected in nifty next 50,  midcap, small cap stocks
- this means some heavyweight rallied as only nifty and nifty 100 index gained

- nice hammer formed
- holding above 10800 spot crucial next week

- note buying has come from the 10600 region
- so we have double bottom support at the level and
- another support near 10500 region

Everyone having similar chart for H&S in nifty

- so will this happen?
- note H&S is on weekly charts
- neckline is at 10000
- RHS taking long time to develop
- RHS forming on low volumes
- real correction to start only when 10000 breaks

February 14, 2019

Why India has so many AAA rated companies and also NPAs

YESBANK technicals multiple timeframe

Daily charts:
- trend is down
- stock is trading in a range for past few weeks
- support around 160
- resistance around 240-250

- today stock was up 30% on good volumes
- similar high volumes were seen on 29-NOV when stock broke lows and recovered