Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10792
- AD was 2:1

- support 10600 resistance 11000

Difficult making money in these kind of markets

After a long time, only buy signals today

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<

Stock name	Close	% Ch	20 Day Swing Indicator						Last Month's		RSI
			Trend	Date	Price	Return %	Stoploss	Reversal	High	Low	5 D	14 D
||||| ALLAHABAD BANK	46.30	4.50%	BUY	21/02/19	46.30	0.00	38.65	38.65	48	42	77	61
||||| BANDHANBNK	488.70	2.00%	BUY	12/02/19	471.80	3.58	451.50	397.00	564	397	82	64
||||| BLISSGVS	169.60	10.50%	BUY	21/02/19	169.60	0.00	144.05	140.00	175	144	85	64
||||| CANFINHOME	271.00	6.50%	BUY	21/02/19	271.00	0.00	235.55	235.00	290	241	69	57
||||| DALBHARAT	1129.10	4.50%	BUY			0.00	1039.90	995.00	1098	860	80	77
||||| ICICIGI	925.75	2.00%	BUY	14/02/19	910.25	1.70	850.75	806.00	902	807	69	62
||||| JUST DIAL	522.15	9.50%	BUY	21/02/19	522.15	0.00	462.75	453.00	505	454	81	65
||||| QUESS	680.35	2.50%	BUY	21/02/19	680.35	0.00	628.05	621.00	755	624	76	59
||||| RAMCO CEMENTS	642.35	3.00%	BUY	21/02/19	642.35	0.00	592.00	555.00	646	556	81	65
||||| RNAM	185.20	19.50%	BUY	21/02/19	185.20	0.00	147.00	127.00	164	134	81	68
||||| SUN TV	587.60	3.50%	BUY	14/02/19	579.10	1.47	518.00	486.00	614	487	71	59
||||| TATA STEEL	498.85	1.50%	BUY	07/02/19	489.05	2.00	460.30	441.00	524	441	73	59

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in positive at 10790.
- AD was 2:1

- support / swing low 10600 resistance 11000
- above levels have been tested multiple times
- if 10600 breaks, markets likely to retest 10000 (and break)
- first sign would be this current rally from 10600 stalling in next few days

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, nifty closed 1.24% in positive at 10735
- the recovery was from 10600 (double bottom support)
- VIX down 8%

- AD was 11:7

Avoid fundamentals

Why I don't use fundamentals:$WTC.au
Revenue up 68%
EBITDA up 52%
NPAT up 48%,
On track FY19

Stock down 15%

— The Chartist (@thechartist) February 20, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 10604
- AD was 10:7

- midcap, small cap indices closed in positive

- markets at double bottom support at 10600
- signs of buying seen in past 2 out of 3 days on nifty (shadows on candlesticks)

- option writing: highest OI seen at 10800 CE in weekly series and 11000 CE in monthly series



Not posting intraday charts due to some issue with missing bars.

The secret of not getting trapped

The secret of never getting trapped. Very precisely explained by ⁦@Prashantshah267⁩. Every time I read the book, I improvise. Looking forward to meet you and ⁦@ap_pune⁩ on 22nd Feb . pic.twitter.com/oxIB7UGYgW

— Vithal (@srvithal388) February 19, 2019

ValueQuest India Moat Fund Performance (Prof Bakshi)

Source: https://www.trustnetoffshore.com/Factsheets/Factsheet.aspx?fundCode=KXF5I&univ=DC

We have grey hairs and have seen this before

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.8% in negative at 10640
- AD was 1:2
- VIX jumped by 9% and is now at 18%

- broader market is rangebound
- markets now at lower end of range
- support region 10500-10600

- OI highest at 10800 CE in weekly series and 11000 CE in monthly series

The Nifty is No Longer a Play on the Indian Economy

The Nifty has fallen far behind the Indian economy

Over the last ten years, India’s GDP growth (in nominal terms) has averaged 13% per annum whilst the most popular benchmark index in India, the Nifty, has seen its earnings grow at a mere 8% per annum. In fact, in nine out of the last ten years, the Nifty’s earnings growth has trailed nominal GDP by a country mile (the only exception being FY11). In America on the other hand, nominal GDP growth over the past decade has been barely 4% and yet the S&P 500’s earnings has grown at 12% per annum, a full 400bps faster than the Nifty (even without converting the Nifty’s earnings to US dollars)! Why do the benchmark indices in India and America display completely opposite trends (when compared to the GDP growth of their respective economies) and what implications does that have for investors?

Read more at http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy

Bottom fishing explained

When a stock breaks a 10 year support... from 2500 to 114... long term investing?

Seeing is Believing ... but thinking challenges your belief

NSE circular: Collection of Net Option Value for In/Out of the money options in Cash

Now you cannot take away premium on option writing for certain contracts...

In nifty options, this will impact strike prices 20% above and below current spot price.

Read more at https://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/CMPT40245.pdf

CNX Midcap weekly chart

- good example of support become resistance and vice versa

NIFTY weekly technicals

- markets trading sideways for few weeks
- H&S formation clearly visible
- Right shoulder being formed

- neckline/ support 10000
- view invalidated above 11200

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- support 26400 resistance 27700

Open positions and stoploss

Stock	Close	% Change	Bought at	Buy Date	Remarks	Trailing Stoploss	Returns %
DABUR	434.30	-1.34	419	26/11/2018	Hold long positions	430	3.64
HAVELLS	688.65	-0.79	666	13/11/2018	Exit trade	690	3.38
RELIANCE	1244.45	1.65	1127	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	1200	10.38