December 11, 2018

Urjit Patel: What I really meant


Source: http://alphaideas.in

December 10, 2018

NSE holidays for 2019

- there are 5 holidays falling on a Monday or Friday
- rest all are in middle of week

- enough time to take that break
- hopefully funded by the market

- on a different note, I will be completing 25 years of marriage on 19th April 2019. This day is a holiday!
- the irony is my wife is a Catholic and Good Friday is a day of mourning for Christians.


Read more at https://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/CMTR39612.pdf

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1.9% in negative at 10488
- AD was negative at 1:4
-VIX was flat in morning but increased by 10% towards close

- note my trend will turn down on close below 10430
- I expect recent lows to break.. let's see.

- trend has already turned down on lower degree timeframe charts

- option writing support 10000 resistance 11000

December 9, 2018

Which pharma stock to buy? CIPLA, SUN PHARMA or DIVISLAB

Simple rule.. buy stocks making new highs... not new lows.

Stocks making new lows are excellent shorts.

Note... I prefer long trades in stocks as upside is unlimited. But you must trade right.

CIPLA


Main benefit of technical analysis over fundamental analysis

... the main benefit of technical analysis over fundamental analysis is that the charts provide a very specific right or wrong point where protective stops can be placed and monetary losses can be limited. As you'll see shortly, the limitation of losses is paramount to the success of a trader and an investor, both financially and psychologically.

People may be forewarned of situations such as the collapses of Bear Sterns and Enron by the deteriorating price action. Knowing when one is wrong using fundamentals, though, is a very grey area. Depending on the style of analysis employed, the lower a share price goes below its valuation may mean the better value the stock becomes. On the other hand, it may mean the valuation was incorrect to begin with. It's a hard ask for any analyst to amend his or her analysis and valuation in the face of a plunging share price – they are usually only forced do so after the fact and after the monetary damage is done.

Read more at http://www.vfmdirect.com/info/successful_stock_trading.pdf

This options trader has a unique strategy to double money in 2 years — check it out

I went to the US and got trained with the best. I enrolled for a course with SMB Capital founded by Mike Bellafiore author of One Good Trade and The Playbook, for a structured program in trading. I also went through the course offered by the famous Dr. Van Tharp.

SMB has a very intensive and structured training program where they take you through the entire trading process. We worked from 6.00 in the morning to 9.30-10.00 pm every day. Those under training were attached to one of the 6-7 super traders who were all multi-million dollar traders.

Every morning the super traders came up with a list of what was called ‘stock in play’. These were based on analysis and certain setups which picked up stocks that the team felt was likely to see increased activity during the day. The team leader would then discuss it with his team and how they should handle it.

These were generally intraday or swing trades which the traders held for 2-3 days. I was not comfortable with this trading style. One day, during lunch Seth Freudberg who was heading the options desk asked me if I had ever traded options. Since I had not he asked me to try it out.

I took to options more easily and learned many commonly used and proprietary strategies used by traders in SMB Capital under the mentorship of Seth.

Dr. Van Tharp’s training helped me with the psychology aspect. The training session helped in analyzing myself, to understand my strength and weakness. It helped clear up the path in for me in knowing what kind of trades I can do and what I cannot. For me one of the main takeaways was I knew what not to trade. Another important thing I picked up was the importance of position sizing.

These training helped cut down my learning curve by at least 3-4 years.

I traded the US markets for nearly two years and along with it the Indian markets. However, I soon realized that trading options in Indian markets are different than that in the US markets. Strategies that worked very well in the US markets were not giving the desired returns in India.

The main reason for this is the strange margining system we have in India. In a defined risk strategy, say a spread, the margin to be paid in the US was the spread between the strikes, but in India complete margin on both the legs of the trade is needed. This makes a number of strategies like the butterfly or the Iron Condor unattractive.

As trading both the US and Indian markets was stressful I decided to hone my skills in the Indian market.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/this-options-trader-has-a-unique-strategy-to-double-money-in-2-years-check-it-out-3267041.html

For many of his trading strategies, I strongly recommend following his twitter handle at https://twitter.com/KatariyaPran

The only reason to buy a stock




December 8, 2018

Best way to identify winning stocks @iManasArora




NIFTY weekly charts

- probable H&S being formed
- right shoulder under progress
- neckline 10000

- if neckline breaks, retest of 9000 possible

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- swing high/ resistance at 27000
- immediate support 26000

December 7, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.9% in positive at 10694
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 10000 resistance 11000

As expected, US markets take support at lower end of trading range

Link: https://www.vfmdirect.in/2018/12/us-markets-near-lower-end-of-trading.html


Indian markets too are at lower end of trading range... expecting good support at 10500


December 6, 2018

Nifty 200 stocks signal

Stock nameCloseChange20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month's52 week
TrendDateStoplossReversalHighLowHighLow
||||| AMARAJABAT703.05-0.50%SELL06/12/18748.70783.10807705908687
||||| AUROPHARMA752.35-5.50%SELL06/12/18830.45830.45822759830527
||||| BALKRISIND894.60-4.00%SELL06/11/181010.951039.0011909231454892
||||| GRASIM795.00-3.50%SELL03/10/18883.00891.708927951261756
||||| ICICIGI902.151.00%BUY01/11/18785.00785.00865785932639
||||| ICICIPRULI308.20-3.00%SELL06/12/18330.80363.90364315462305
||||| IGL252.55-2.50%SELL04/12/18274.15287.70294259345215
||||| INDIANB216.15-2.50%SELL28/08/18234.00269.70270220406210
||||| IOC130.75-2.50%SELL19/03/18143.00155.50156132214105
||||| ITC273.05-0.50%SELL11/09/18290.00290.00290273323252
||||| M&MFIN400.85-4.50%SELL06/12/18455.50455.50454409534343
||||| MANAPPURAM79.50-3.50%SELL06/12/1887.7088.40887613066
||||| MUTHOOTFIN420.65-5.50%SELL06/12/18466.30472.90473410484356
||||| NATIONALUM63.10-2.50%SELL21/09/1868.8071.5072649057
||||| OIL180.40-1.50%SELL05/10/18207.25207.25207185259180
||||| PAGEIND24213.75-3.50%SELL08/10/1828150.0030500.0030500249113637018001
||||| PCJEWELLER64.55-4.50%SELL06/12/1879.8099.001005960147
||||| PNB66.10-4.00%SELL06/12/1873.4074.30796719758
||||| RPOWER27.70-4.50%SELL06/12/1831.9532.7033296523
||||| TATASTEEL510.20-1.00%SELL06/12/18553.60610.60611512793493
||||| TV18BRDCST34.15-2.50%SELL30/08/1836.6538.6039347132
||||| UNIONBANK73.55-3.00%SELL06/12/1882.7084.60857515761

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US markets near lower end of trading range


USD INR chart

- after breaking out from 69, the currency rallied to 74.5 before correcting
- it is now retesting the breakout level
- since correction is likely to be limited from here on, a new rally should start


Expanding triangle on nifty charts

- this is the hourly chart
- lower trendline to provide support
- one can also assume H&S where RS has yet to start


The 4 hour chart provides a better context to the triangle

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 1.7% in negative at 10601
- AD was 1:3

- option writing support 10000 resistance 11000

- expecting support around 10500

- tomorrow, first hour low very important

December 5, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.8% in negative at 10785
- AD was 5:12

- this is 2nd day of lower high  lower low

- swing low support 10500

- option writing support 10000 resistance 11000

Short signal on #NIFTY hourly charts SL 11000

NIFTY 60 min charts

- trend will reverse on close below 10850 F
- SL 10950 F