April 25, 2019

Infidelity and stock market crashes - role of information asymmetry

Original source: unknown

Once upon a time there was a village in which there lived many married couples. There were certain qualities about this village, though, that made this village unique.

Whenever a man had an affair with another man’s wife, every woman in the village got to know about the affair, except his own wife. This happened because the woman who he had slept with talked about their affair with all the other women in the village, except his wife. Moreover, no one ever told his wife about the affair.

April 24, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1.3% in positive at 11726
- AD was 5:4

- we have a nice swing low around 11500 levels

April 23, 2019

BANKNIFTY looking weak

- this index gave the first breakout
- now looking weak
- it has actually closed below its recent swing low
- and this was a faster move
- however I will consider trend reversal below 29000

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.2% in negative at 11576
- AD was 7:11

- swing low 11500

- option writing support 11500 (minor) resistance 11700 (major)

Will oil trigger the next recession?

Government or state banks - who is to blame for India's slowdown?

India, the world's fastest growing large economy, is slowing: 

There has been a visible deceleration in activity in the past six months. It started with slowing sales of autos and some durable goods and has spread from there.

Airline traffic growth is down; companies are now saying sales of consumer staples such as soaps and detergents have begun to weaken, too. Even as the hunt for reasons for the slowdown begins, the main culprit appears to be a familiar one: the still largely government-owned financial system.

The issue is that there isn’t enough money in the economy. For much of the past two years, distributors and retailers of consumer products have been warning of a growing lack of liquidity. At first, policymakers largely dismissed their concerns. The government's late 2016 decision to withdraw most currency from circulation temporarily, and the introduction the following year of a nationwide goods-and-services tax, made it hard to decipher signals on economic momentum.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/government-or-state-banks-who-is-to-blame-for-india-s-slowdown-119042200067_1.html

April 22, 2019

NIFTY options max pain around 11700

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.35% in negative at 11594
- AD was 1:3

- close below 11500 will confirm trend reversal

- Last week's dark cloud cover shows its magic today

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

Randomness rules

Comedian Zelensky with no political experience wins Ukraine presidency

A comedian with no political experience won a landslide victory in Ukraine's presidential election Sunday, exit polls showed, dealing a stunning rebuke to the country's political establishment. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose only previous political role was playing the president on television, trounced incumbent Petro Poroshenko by taking 73 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls conducted by several think tanks.Poroshenko lost to the television star across all regions of the country, including in the west where he traditionally enjoyed strong support.

It was an extraordinary outcome to a campaign that started as a joke but struck a chord with voters frustrated by poverty, corruption and a five-year war that has claimed some 13,000 lives.

Read more at https://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-comedian-zelensky-with-no-political-experience-wins-ukraine-presidency-2741953

Be your own boss

April 20, 2019

Hacking Democracy: How Stolen Aadhaar Data Of Nearly 10 Cr Voters Was Used To Delete People From Electoral Rolls

“They used it to do some profiling of voters. They were seeding it with Aadhaar linked information to profile voter data,” he said. “After that, you draw up a list, showing how likely a candidate is to vote for you. To do this, we think they were using an IVRS [automated voice calling — one of the many digital services political parties now rely on] to reach out to all the potential voters.”

“They would ask questions about whom you will support, and based on your rating, assign a score. They repeated this process to work out a list of people who weren’t supporting them, and then they filed Form 7 requests about these people, to have them removed. It’s a very complex scheme.”

Form 7 is an objection to a name being included in the voter list — it can be filed by anyone about anyone else. Once filed, the EC physically verifies whether the person has shifted, or is deceased, or is a duplicate, and if that is the case, removes the name.

But thousands of people in both states, as well as in the rest of the country, have been taking to social media to talk about how they’ve been robbed of their votes. In fact, cricketer Rahul Dravid, who was one of the people in the EC’s ads to exhort people to vote, found his name missing as well.

Read more at https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/hacking-democracy-stolen-aadhaar-voter-deletion_in_5cb9afa2e4b068d795cb870c

People really do quit because of their bosses, or sometimes follow them

When Harish Banker quit his bank to join another financial services firm, six of his reporting team members also resigned from the company to join him.

This was a big blow to the firm which was already facing high rates of attrition. While the human resources team tried to retain the staff members by offering higher pay, none of them relented.

Their argument was that Banker was their mentor when they joined the team and they were only repaying the loyalty to the individual.

In HR parlance, a phrase that is often repeated is that people leave managers and not companies. While not everyone may agree, it is a fact that a company’s brand ambassador for a new joinee is often the manager s/he reports to.

You don’t need a boss like Miranda Priestly from The Devil Wears Prada to leave a job. They could, in fact, be an immense influencer in employee career decisions. So much so that employees quit en masse to follow their reporting manager. Especially if the employee has been hired by this person.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/people-really-do-quit-because-of-their-bosses-or-sometimes-follow-them-3857731.html

April 19, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- this week, nifty closed 0.9% in positive
- small signs of selling visible at higher levels

- support 11000

Something funny with NSE advance decline stats


Yesterday RELIANCE was up 3% while NIFTY closed 0.3% in negative.

What if Reliance closed flat? Then nifty would have closed another 60 points in the negative.

This is because Reliance has got almost 10% weight in the index.

Check this out at https://www.equitymaster.com/india-markets/nse-replica.asp

April 18, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11753
- pattern formed - dark cloud cover

- gap present below prev day's bar
- markets fine as long as this holds

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

They took the data from your servers ... stop pretending

April 17, 2019

On quitting a job at 32

Question from Jaycobb
That was a pretty bold decision at a relatively young age of 32! If am allowed to ask
- Was it disillusionment with appraisal alone that made you take the decision to not work for someone or there were other motivations in play?
- Curious to know if you are able to sustain since then (20 years?) only with trading alone? That would be quite a successful jump into unknown if I may say!

I was an MBA from a premier institute... after working for few years, I realised that my juniors and my seniors were all working just to impress their bosses who incidentally were also working for another boss. This never ended and was a chain.

People rate their work experience in terms of responsibility, designation, perks, salary etc... but at the end of the day, you are still working for someone else. There is no difference between a VP and the office security guy... everyone is working for money and trying to keep their seniors happy, get a raise, a promotion perhaps.

April 16, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11787
- AD was flat... why?

- nice swing low around 11500