May 26, 2019

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support - gap around 30000
- resistance 32000

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- selling seen around 12000 levels
- support 11000-11500

Google trends was right about BJP winning

May 24, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today market closed 1.6% in positive at 11844
- AD was 4:1

- VIX down 15%

- out of station till 28th MAY... not trading at all

May 23, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty opened with a  big gapup and closed deep in the red
- however lose was above 11600
- close was at 11657 (0.7% negative)
- AD was flat

- VIX down 30%.. options at more sensible pricing

- now election tamasha is over
- BJP is in majority again for 5 years
- so no uncertainty on political front

- today's "official" result was the trigger for "sell on good news"



May 22, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11738
- AD was 5:4

- option writing support 11000-11500 resistance 12000


May 21, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1% in negative at 11709
- AD was 1:2

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

- exit polls giving BJP a v good majority is already factored by markets
- so what other good news is left?
- what if exit polls are way off the mark?

- on vacation till 27th MAY

May 20, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- nifty closed 3.7% in positive at 11828
- AD was 5:1

-  move in 2 days is probably the fastest in last 2-3 year.

- immediate support 11500
- close below 11500 this week will lead to whipsaw

- option writing  resistance 12000

- travelling till next Wednesday so updates can be sporadic.




You have been warned in advance

May 19, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000 resistance 12000

- Friday's strong bounce has come from oversold region
- do not read too much into the rally


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- index has bounced off from oversold region
- support 28400 res 30500


May 18, 2019

Don't come back to work on Sunday - Wallstreet quote




May 17, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 1.3% in positive at 11407
- AD was 5:4

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

- buy signal on 30 min/ 60 min charts

- taking a break from trading next week
- options are extremely expensive and volatility can wreak havoc in trades

How a renowned researcher beat the odds, stumped casino owners around the world, and walked away with a fortune.

On a warm night in May of 1969, a throng of awestruck gamblers crowded around a well-worn roulette table in the Italian Riviera.

At the center stood a gangly 38-year-old medical professor in a rumpled suit. He’d just placed a $100,000 bet ($715,000 in 2019 dollars) on a single spin of the wheel. As the croupier unleashed the little white ball, the room went silent. He couldn’t possibly be this lucky… could he?

But Dr. Richard Jarecki wasn’t leaving it up to chance. He’d spent thousands of hours devising an ingenious method of winning — and it would soon net him the modern equivalent of more than $8,000,000.

Read more at https://thehustle.co/professor-who-beat-roulette/

Nifty can slip up to 15% if Narendra Modi-led NDA fails to form govt: UBS

A recent report co-authored by Gautam Chhaochharia, the UBS head of India research, along with Dipojjal Saha and Rohit Arora, expects the Nifty to slip 10-15 per cent if the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fails to form the government at the Centre. The projection is based on sharp reactions witnessed in 2004 and 2009 after general election outcomes.

UBS expects the Nifty to move up 5-10 per cent, crossing their upside (and recent peak) scenario of 11,800 in case the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gets a single-party majority. On the other hand, a BJP-led NDA win (over 250 seats) could see the Nifty move up by 5 per cent to touch its recent peak, the report says. In case BJP-led NDA wins less than 250 seats, UBS expects the markets to remain volatile in the near-term and wait for the government formation before making a directional call.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/elections/nifty-can-slip-up-to-15-if-narendra-modi-led-nda-fails-to-form-govt-ubs-119051600494_1.html

Nice post on demonetisation, GST and Rera

By Arvind Modi

Does everyone feel that Modi broke the backbone of the Indian economy by introducing demonetization, GST, and RERA?

I am an IT Project manager who quit a full time job to pursue my dreams as an entrepreneur. 90 out of 100 times I use auto correct to fix the spelling of entrepreneur when I write. Until 2.5 years ago, I had an abnormal IT job for 10 years that never had a start time or end time and then I decided I am old enough to spread my wings and fly off to pursue my dreams considering the fact that I am already used to work for odd hours. So I did!

In 2.5 years, I had a lot of learning, a lot of departments of a company that I would never have tapped are now being managed by me. One of which is ‘purchasing’. And this is where my opinion on demonetization and GST comes from.

Until demonetization a lot of our purchases were paid through cash and never had an invoice. Our choices were limited, most of the suppliers were unregistered large volume suppliers who used every loop hole in the law, bribed officers and have been doing large volume business (in crores) without a single tax ID.

Then, Demonetization happened. The first impact was on these suppliers. It was practically impossible for us to get new currency and pay them. This is when we started scouting for suppliers who would take online payment. Now most of these suppliers have tight knit families so with the 2.5 lakh limit and 20 people in the family, it was easy for them to ask us to transfer to one of the 20 bank accounts they gave us. They were pretty smart they thought! So for the next few months after demonetization, whenever we had an order to place we would get a new account number to make a payment to.

At this stage, our suppliers list has shrunken down by 50% already.

Now eventually came GST. GST is a game changer for every business man. The VAT system was pretty simple, almost every sale we had was either 5% or 14.5% taxable. Being an online business, our data was always ready and it took us less time to report our taxes and pay them. But I knew a lot of them misused this reporting by submitting false purchases and lesser sales (for online business every single payment is to the bank account so we can not float these values).

May 16, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in positive at 11257
- AD was flat

- last 4 days, nifty is trading between 11100 and 11300
- alternate day up down movement

- option writing support 11000 res 12000

May 15, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11157
- AD was 7:11 (not bad)

- expecting good support around 11000

WhatsApp’s End-to-End Encryption Is a Gimmick

The discovery that hackers could snoop on WhatsApp should alert users of supposedly secure messaging apps to an uncomfortable truth: “End-to-end encryption” sounds nice — but if anyone can get into your phone’s operating system, they will be able to read your messages without having to decrypt them.

According to a report in the Financial Times on Tuesday, the spyware that exploited the vulnerability was Pegasus, made by the Israeli company NSO. The malware could access a phone’s camera and microphone, open messages, capture what appears on a user’s screen, and log keystrokes — rendering encryption pointless. It works on all operating systems, including Apple’s iOS, Google’s Android, and Microsoft’s rarely used mobile version of Windows.

Hackers can install the malware simply by calling the target.

It’s important to realize, however, that spyware that can install itself without any action on the user’s part can arrive through any channel, be it an encrypted messenger, a browser, an email or SMS client with an undiscovered vulnerability allowing such an attack.

These are merely applications running on top of an operating system, and once a piece of malware gets into the latter it can control the device in a multitude of ways. With a keylogger, a hacker can see only one side of a conversation. Add the ability to capture a user’s screen, and they can see the full discussion regardless of what security precautions are built into the app you are using.

“End-to-end encryption” is a marketing device used by companies such as Facebook to lull consumers wary about cyber-surveillance into a false sense of security. Encryption is, of course, necessary, but it's not a fail-safe way to secure communication.

Read more at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-14/whatsapp-hack-shows-end-to-end-encryption-is-pointless

May 14, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11222
- AD was flat

- support 11000