October 21, 2019

What will be the world like in 50 years?

Paying off loans is last priority


October 20, 2019

October 19, 2019

It may be both, may not be both; may be partly one or may be partly the other

Sitharaman waffled when asked if the current economic slowdown was because of cyclical or structural factors — an issue on which there has been fierce debate among economists.

“It may be both, may not be both; may be partly one or may be partly the other,” Sitharaman said. “I’m not getting into that at this stage. I don’t have the luxury of sitting and looking at which way it is going.”

The Union finance minister conceded that the economy wasn’t growing as fast as it once did. “It’s not 8 per cent. It’s not seven. It’s come down to six and so on…. But I don’t want to underestimate the potential that India is showing even in this adverse circumstance,” Sitharaman said.

Read more at https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/nirmala-sitharaman-and-piyush-goyal-dream-team-worthy-of-nobel/cid/1712685

October 18, 2019

What constitutes Quant Trading and what does not?


The operative word here is “mathematical models”.  Of course this can include probabilistic and statistical models as well.

So to sum it up, Quant trading is the application of Mathematics, Statistics and Probability theory in the area of trading.

For example, if you are looking at a simple Moving Average Cross over system, you may want to calculate the Conditional Probability and the Probability Distribution for various outcomes in terms of price. But merely trading a Moving Average Cross over system without having done the statistical work does not qualify as Quant trading.

Read more at https://www.niftyscalper.com/blogs/2019/10/18/what-constitutes-quant-trading-and-what-does-not

Buy signals with charts

LAST updated: 18-OCT-2019 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.65% in positive at 11661
- AD was 11:5

- resistance around 11700-800
- 11700 is an important swing high

Consumption in rural India hits a 7-year low

Rural household consumption slumped to a seven-year low in the September quarter, in a sign that the prolonged agrarian distress and near-stagnant rural incomes have eroded demand for consumer goods, market researcher Nielsen said.

Consumption of packaged consumer goods by rural households also grew at a slower pace than in urban areas for the first time in seven years, Nielsen said in a quarterly report on Thursday.

The rural economy has been plagued by falling crop prices and declining incomes, resulting in a severe slump in demand. Falling income has not only singed farmers but also landless wage workers, who together account for two-thirds of all rural households.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/industry/retail/consumption-in-rural-india-hits-a-7-year-low-11571334835256.html

Urban Highway Removal: To Your Health

The famed U.S. intellectual Lewis Mumford once said, “Forget the damned motor car and build the cities for lovers and friends.” A recently released report on freeway removal from by the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy and EMBARQ (producer The City Fix) seems to be getting a bit closer to that ideal, providing case studies on cities that have successfully removed freeways tearing their cities asunder or separating waterfronts from the enjoyment of residents.

The report notes that cities are undertaking these highway removal projects to foster economic development and offer better solutions to meet mobility needs. One additional key aspect to consider is the effect of these highways on quality of life and public health—from air pollution to traffic crashes to limiting the ability of residents to be active in their daily lives. These considerations will need further research, but several positive benefits can be observed from what already exists.

Removing a freeway and replacing it with a greener boulevard or park can reduce the “urban heat island” effect and air pollution. In Seoul, Korea, when the city turned the Cheonggyecheon Expressway into a 5.8-kilometer linear park and daylighted stream, this led to a reduction of the heat island effect by as much as 8 degrees Celsius, according to summertime measurements in comparison to nearby paved roadway conditions.

Read more at https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/urban-highway-removal-to-your-health

BANKNIFTY - trend is up

Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

Good Things Happen, Because Bad Things Are Allowed To: Karachi Stock Exchange Version

Markets are going to be volatile, because that’s by design. If you curtail volatility, forcibly, it doesn’t end well.

Oh, and people have tried.

In Pakistan in 2008, they framed a rule: markets cannot go down. Meaning, stocks prices would have a lower bound, limited to the price of the previous day. You couldn’t bid the price down below that price. This was set by the SECP, the securities regulator of Pakistan.

This soothed some fears as the Karachi Stock Exchange index had already plunged from 15,000 to 9000, with a 15% drop in a week. If you don’t allow prices to go down further, then life would be so much better!

A strange thing happened. There were just no buyers for stocks. People wanted to buy, no doubt, but not at current prices. And without a buyer, there was nothing a seller could do but to place his orders at the lowest possible number – the high of the previous day.

Between September and December 2008, as the world was crashing and burning (the NSE Nifty fell about 40% in this period) the Karachi Index was at exactly the same level, because no one was willing to buy higher, and you were not allowed to sell lower.

When reality dawned, and apparently it took three months then, the authorities decided to remove the price “freeze”. Consequently the stock market dropped another 40% and only then stabilised and returned to go up more than 10x from the lows.

Read more at https://www.capitalmind.in/2019/10/good-things-happen-because-bad-things-are-allowed-to-karachi-stock-exchange-version/

October 16, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11471
- AD was flat

- trading range was very small
- small hanging man formed

Nice thread on bull and bear markets

This small/midcap bear market is our 2nd most brutal in history. In 1992 you knew the Harshad was caught. In 2000 NASDAQ was bleeding & Ketan had been trapped. This time it was the system cracking - a box full of fire crackers catching fire. You don’t know which one bursts when!

Post the fall in 1992, EOUs, FMCG and software took over the leadership. Anything to do with ‘EOU’ was bid up. Post 2000 the large pharma companies like Dr Reddy’s starting moving and so did a lot of PSU divestment candidates.

Though the Govt. sold only a handful of PSUs the rally spread across the sector far and wide SCI, BEL, BEML, EIL, CONCOR & more were the shining stars till 2003. Companies that were debt free available at single digit P/Es with a dividend yield of 7% to 10% went up 10 to 30x.

Read more at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1184261729036861440.html