January 31, 2019

NIFTY monthly charts

- trend is up
- support 10000
- looks like start of correction
- stiff resistance around 11000-11200

-2 hammers formed

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- few days ago I said trend is down as markets closed below a specific swing low
- later markets formed a lower swing low and today they recovered smartly
- note that we have 4 swing lows in recent month... all close to each other
- because of this, I am negating my prev view and am increasing the swing low SL to 10600
- till this is held, I will assume trend is up
- worst case, this  SL will be hit

Are you a rent seeker?




There is no holy grail in the market




For the following chart, all traders will earn different profits despite using the same indicator.

January 30, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10652
- AD was 5:4

If you like a company's product, should you buy the stock?

A reader asks, “As an investor, how should I view the correlation between being bullish on the product and being bullish on the stock?”

The idea that you should buy what you know goes something like this- “I cannot believe how much money I spend at Costco. Hey wait a minute, why don’t I buy some stock in this company?”

This line of thinking was made famous by Peter Lynch, the former head of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund. Lynch, however, said this concept was taken out of context and oversimplified. He told the Wall Street Journal, “I’ve never said, If you go to a mall, see a Starbucks and say it’s good coffee, you should call Fidelity brokerage and buy the stock.”

“What you know” can be a great place to start, but that shouldn’t replace actual analysis. “If you can’t understand the balance sheet, Lynch said, “you probably shouldn’t own it.”

You might love your GoPro camera or your Ford Explorer, but that doesn’t mean other people share your opinion. And if everyone does share your opinion, that can actually make for a risky investment. Focusing on the fundamentals and ignoring the expectations falls under the category of what Michael Mauboussin has called the single greatest error:

Read more at https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/01/29/the-single-greatest-error

January 29, 2019

Scam or no scam... most HFC stocks near 2016/ 2017 lows except HDFC

DHFL




DHFL : ANATOMY OF INDIA’S BIGGEST FINANCIAL SCAM by cobrapost.com

NIFTY options open interest analysis

JAN series:
- highest OI is mostly in calls... limited upsides
- 11000 CE has highest OI
- in puts, highest OI is at 10500


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10652
- AD was flat

Fastest exit by any independent director

Source: alphaideas.in

Open positions and stoploss


StockClose% ChangeBought atBuy DateRemarksTrailing StoplossReturns %
ADANIPORTS326.10-12.7734615/11/2018Exit trade370-5.81
BAJFINANCE2458.50-5.43240216/11/2018Exit trade25002.35
BRITANNIA3203.45-0.10297416/11/2018Hold long positions30807.72
DABUR427.40-0.6041926/11/2018Hold long positions4101.99
HAVELLS698.70-1.3366613/11/2018Hold long positions6704.89
HDFC1946.90-1.56182513/11/2018Hold long positions19406.70
HDFCBANK2084.15-0.57200416/11/2018Hold long positions20803.98
RELIANCE1229.55-1.32112716/11/2018Hold long positions11009.06
SIEMENS991.45-3.7298116/11/2018Exit trade10201.02

Another scam?







January 28, 2019

BANK NIFTY sell signal

- trend has now turned down
- SL 27750 spot



Chart with kplswing indicator

NIFTY triangle breakout

- so we had a breakout the upside
- followed by a break of the lower trendline
- so are markets still rangebound?

- how does one resolve this contradiction?



Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend has turned down from today
- I increased swing low SL from 10540 to 10680

- today markets closed 1.1% in negative at 10662
- AD was 2:7

- option writing resistance 11000

Modinomics | India takes huge leaps in Ease of Doing Business ranking, thanks to 'Make in India'

India leapfrogged to the 77th rank in the World Bank's latest Ease of Doing Business rankings (2019), jumping 23 notches from 2018.

The report also recognizes India as one of the top 10 improvers in this year’s assessment, for the second successive time. India is the only large country this year to have achieved such a significant shift.

The jump is significant, as it comes after last year’s 30 rung jump when India moved into to the top 100 rankings among 190 countries.

India has improved its rank by 53 positions in the last two years, and 65 positions in the last four years (2014-18).

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/modinomics-india-takes-huge-leaps-in-ease-of-doing-business-ranking-thanks-to-make-in-india-3347371.html

Trade logs by Keshav

* Entered short at the arrow candle. Around 10785

* SL days high.

* Entered in ITM option instead of futures as i usually do.

* Kite has some feature called risk check. It says probability of my trade being profitable. Dont know exactly how it helps.



MSCI rejig of investment cap may trigger $1-b outflow from index

Emkay Global Financial Services expects a potential outflow of around $1 billion from MSCI India constituents following its proposed changes to foreign ownership investment limits.

Global provider of capital market indices, MSCI, has proposed changes to foreign ownership investment limits for India securities following the SEBI diktat on FII/FPI limits.

According to the broking firm, stocks such as L&T and ITC would be impacted the most. Once the changes are accepted, this will reduce India’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Market index by 0.23 percentage points to 8.55 per cent from 8.78 per cent.

Constituent stocks of the MSCI Market Index may get impacted, with the proposed...

Read more at https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/proposed-rejig-of-msci-may-trigger-1-b-outflow-from-index/article26092103.ece

Has Maruti Suzuki lost track or is it the whole car industry?

Investors were jolted out of their seats on Friday after Maruti Suzuki India Ltd reported a sharp narrowing of operating profit margin to under 10%. The company’s flagging sales volume data had given the impression that the company has hit a rough patch, but with margins also dropping sharply, it now looks like it will be a rocky road to recovery.

The close to 600 basis points drop in margins came without warning, prompting analysts at Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd to call their report on the company’s results, “Unexpected slowdowns are the worst".

Maruti Suzuki shares fell more than 8% on Friday and hit a 52-week low. Note that some analysts have downgraded earnings estimates by as much as 8-10% each year for the next three fiscal years. A moot question is if this spells gloom for the country’s auto industry too.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/has-maruti-suzuki-lost-track-or-is-it-the-whole-car-industry-1548608176019.html

Weekly charts:



Daily charts:

January 26, 2019

There are no perfect entries




BQLearning - F&O Series: Open Interest And Market Wide Position Limit

Open interest is the number of contracts or positions outstanding in futures and options on an exchange. It may be denoted in a number of contracts or the number of shares. It is computed by summing up net open positions in the derivative of an index or stock. These positions must be closed on expiry if not squared off earlier. Open interest in any derivative cannot exceed the market-wide positio..

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/bqlearning/bqlearning-fo-series-open-interest-market-wide-position-limit#gs.tTAXf4ps

Copyright © BloombergQuint

Weekend read: how to buy a personal jet

Image result for gulfstream g650

Most of us have at some time or the other have bought a bike or a car. The buying process is straight forward - check with friends, read a review on a portal, visit a dealer, take a test drive and buy the car.

But how does one buy a personal jet? How do you know you need one?

Do you go for second hand or a new one? Five seater? Ten seater? Short range, long range? What about running costs? And repairs and maintenance? Interiors? Acoustics? Avionics?

Few days ago, I read an excellent article on this at Vanity Fair. Not surprisingly the writer has chosen to remain anonymous. In the rarified world of ultra rich and super wealthy, these things are rarely bragged about.

Note the article was published in 1998 but is still relevant today.

Excerpts:




ZEE brings down DISHTV? Both down 30%

12 hours ago - Zee Group Shares Crash On Report Of Money Laundering Post Notes Ban. The shares on the BSE lost up to 33 per cent during the intra-day ...
11 hours ago - The admission incidentally came after Zee shares tanked a whopping 26.43 per cent on the BSE to Rs 319.35 Friday, while other group ...
11 hours ago - Read more about Subhash Chandra apologises as Zee Group shares crash on media report of money laundering post-demo (Repeating for ...

ZEE chart

BANKNIFTY charts

- trend is up
- support 27000

NIFTY weekly charts

- nifty trading in rising channel
- H&S pattern visible
- Right shoulder being formed?
- support 10000 resistance 11000-11200 region

Sensex hourly chart

- sensex breaks first trendline
- now taking support at next trendline
- note all legs are corrective and not impulsive
- if any leg was impulsive we would have had a big correction
- since that is not the case so high chance markets may do timepass


January 25, 2019

Swing trading signals :: 25-JAN-2019

  • This report is for your personal use only and is valid for next trading day.
  • Signals are generated using the kplswing indicator.
  • Algorithm: BUY signal is generated if a stock closes above 20 days high.
  • Stock name is highlighted in case of first signal of the trend.
  • Exits: There are no targets and exits are based on a trailing stoploss. Returns are whatever the market gives - 20%, 100%, etc.
  • Trailing SL: For long positions, use weekly low or 10 days low.
  • Click on stock name link for charts, more info etc
  • Limit investment per stock to 3% of trading capital or limit loss per trade to max 1% of your trading capital.
  • Important: Trade in cash only and never in futures.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| good liquidity - ||||| excellent liquidity. Avoid stocks with ||||| low liquidity.
This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell

All signals:

Buy signals: 
KSCL -

Sell signals:
ADANIENT - ACC - AMBUJACEM - APOLLOTYRE - APTECHT - ASTRAL - BAJAJ-AUTO - BAJAJELEC - BAJAJHLDNG -
BANKBARODA - BANKINDIA - BEML -BERGEPAINT - BHEL - BOSCHLTD - CANBK - CEATLTD -
CENTURYTEX - CHENNPETRO - COLPAL - DELTACORP - DISHTV - DLF - ENGINERSIN - GRASIM -GSFC - HDFCAMC -
HEROMOTOCO - HINDZINC - HSCL - HUDCO - IBVENTURES -
ICICIPRULI - IDFC - IFCI - INDHOTEL - INDIANB - INDIACEM -JISLJALEQS - L&TFH - LICHSGFIN - LINDEINDIA - M&M - MARUTI - MCX - NCC - NHPC - PNB - PRABHAT -
RAMCOCEM - RAYMOND - RCOM - RELINFRA -SAIL - SBIN - SOUTHBANK - SUNTV - SUPREMEIND - SUVEN - SYNDIBANK - TATACOMM - TATAGLOBAL - TATASTEEL -
TORNTPOWER - TV18BRDCST -TVSMOTOR - ULTRACEMCO - UNIONBANK - VENKEYS -
VIJAYABANK - ZEEL -

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty opened gapup but closed in negative at 10780
- AD was 5:13

- option writing resistance 11000

- VIX down 1%.. no fear?

When smoking was considered cool

What is good today may become evil tomorrow... 
from the Meluhas, Nagas, Vayuputras trilogy by Amish Tripathi

Interesting ads from the past

Image result for doctor smoking camel old ads


Your emotions when long or short in same market

Interesting nifty chart

- trendline supports still holding


January 24, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 10850
- AD was 6:11

- highest OI at 11000 in calls followed by 10800 in puts

- markets extremely rangebound
- today was 5th day of doing nothing

When someone becomes rich and famous




January 23, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 10830
- AD was 7:11

- Options: highest OI at 11000 CE and then 10500 PE

- notice trendline on chart
- as long as this holds, nothing to worry

How position size affects your returns ( by Keshav)

Here is the result sheet of a coin toss game. 

Let's say the rules for the game are: (1) we start with $1,000, (2) we always bet that heads come up, (3) we can bet any amount that we have left, (4) if tails comes up, we lose our bet, (5) if heads comes up, we do not lose our bet; instead, we win twice as much as we bet, and (6) the coin is fair and so the probability of heads is 50%. This game is similar to some trading methods.

Trade logs by Keshav

* Exited from long position at 10900. Taken at 10850.

* Took a short trade at 10900. Sl 11000.

 * Risk taken for this trade is 0.5%

*  Waiting patiently for a trend to come.


The Untold Story of A Self-Made Investing Millionaire

...unlike most people, the story of Anne does not end with her retirement at age 51, with $21,000. That’s what most of us are looking for, right? A kitty good enough so that we hang our shoes and suits and retire to a happy, peaceful life?

But Anne’s story continued for another 50+ years, till 1995, when she died at an age slightly above 101. By that time, her investment portfolio was worth $22 million! That’s about $36 million in today’s money.

Now, if you are awed with that number, please note that Anne created this $22 million from $21,000 at an investment rate of return of just 14.6%. This was almost double the US S&P 500 index’s annual return of 7.5% during that period.

So, how did Anne do it? Was she a super investor?

One factor that helped her was the $3,100 ‘annual’ pension that she received after retirement, a large part of which she invested. It was a petty sum, to say the least.

But, as per Clark, the real heroes of Anne’s story of wealth creation were three – frugality, longevity and compound interest.

Although she was neither born into great wealth, nor did she generate it during her working life, Anne did possess these three very important things.

Read more at https://www.safalniveshak.com/story-of-self-made-investing-millionaire

January 22, 2019

This PRABHAT DAIRY non sense has to stop

Surprised to see stock open gap up ... .there is no good news at all... pity the buyer


Not surprised to see stock close 14% in negative


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 10923
- AD was 5:11

- past 5 days, nifty is forming small "hammer" patterns
- trading range is extremely narrow

- option writing support 10900 resistance 11000

WIPRO bonus history

Trading signals

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<
Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| ALLAHABAD BANK42.65-2.50%SELL21/01/1942.650.0046.9047.9050422038
||||| APOLLO TYRE216.60-0.50%SELL16/01/19218.851.03240.70237.002452211736
||||| ARVIND92.35-0.50%SELL0.000.00100.95107962332
||||| AVANTIFEED366.75-1.50%SELL21/01/19366.750.00403.40398.004193382843
||||| BANDHANBNK426.60-3.00%SELL09/01/19455.406.32500.90563.005844621832
||||| BBTC1228.05-1.50%SELL06/12/181308.306.131439.101348.00140511821534
||||| CANFINHOME264.25-1.50%SELL21/01/19264.250.00290.65297.002972261941
||||| CENTRAL BANK31.95-8.50%SELL21/01/1931.950.0035.1037.9538281036
||||| COAL INDIA229.000.00%SELL01/11/18261.1012.29287.20254.002542281930
||||| DENABANK13.35-1.00%SELL03/01/1914.407.2915.8018.4518151629
||||| DMART1351.30-2.00%SELL14/01/191397.403.301537.101678.00169914731630
||||| FRETAIL422.70-5.00%SELL02/01/19468.509.78515.35575.005754841928
||||| GRAPHITE684.15-2.00%SELL19/09/18953.9528.281049.30799.009457023131
||||| GRUH226.80-2.00%SELL08/01/19255.2511.15280.75333.003352751627
||||| HEG3377.50-4.50%SELL05/12/184030.2516.204433.253928.00420834802028
||||| HERO MOTOR2794.25-3.50%SELL07/01/192957.955.533253.703301.00338029821830
||||| INDIABULL REAL ESTATE80.60-5.00%SELL21/01/1980.600.0088.6592.759669836
||||| IDEA32.85-6.50%SELL30/11/1835.306.9438.8038.3039321530
||||| INFOSYS745.001.50%BUY13/12/18697.756.77627.95637.007146378874
||||| IOLCP224.205.50%BUY05/11/18140.5559.52126.45161.001771428879
||||| JAIN IRRIGATION61.85-4.00%SELL05/12/1863.752.9870.1070.6071582136
||||| KEC270.75-1.00%SELL14/01/19279.403.10307.30307.003162651535
||||| KOTAK BANK1267.602.00%BUY21/01/191267.600.001140.801198.00134611717761
||||| NIIT LTD93.052.00%BUY12/11/1878.4018.6970.5582.0095829169
||||| NIITTECH1269.103.50%BUY14/01/191187.706.851068.901102.00116610319274
||||| NMDC90.25-0.50%SELL16/11/18100.7510.42110.8099.5098892738
||||| PNBHOUSING879.05-0.50%SELL21/01/19879.050.00966.95970.0010088762738
||||| RELIANCE COM13.10-1.50%SELL03/01/1913.502.9614.8515.0519142638
||||| SAIL49.35-0.50%SELL11/07/1877.4036.2485.1056.8057492135
||||| SEQUENT87.104.50%BUY09/11/1861.5041.6355.3563.5074629077
||||| SHANKARA492.75-2.50%SELL05/09/181449.6066.011594.55558.006654902129
||||| SOUTHBANK14.20-8.50%SELL21/01/1914.200.0015.6016.1517151533
||||| SHRIRAM TRANSPORT1114.70-1.50%SELL21/01/191114.700.001226.151258.00129110521938
||||| SUVEN LIFE213.00-2.00%SELL10/12/18222.004.05244.20239.002432161131
||||| UNITED BREWERIES1485.755.00%BUY18/12/181375.907.981238.301313.00141211858976
35 rows
Av return = 10.90