Bill Ackman - Massive pent up demand - 2021 will be 'very, very good year'

Bill Ackman estimated that consumers are sitting on a colossal sum of up to $US3 trillion of savings.

“People aren’t eating out, they’re not going on vacation, they’re not driving“, he pointed out.

It is elementary that when the restrictions are eased, consumers will go on a rampage and spending binge.

“When you keep someone locked down, their next move when they can actually feel safe is going to be to go on a vacation, to go drinking, to go to dinner, to go to a show,” he stated.

“It’s probably the single greatest time in history to open a restaurant,” he added.

It is obvious that the forthcoming quarterly results of companies as well as the GDP growth of Countries will be very strong due to the surge in spending by consumers. 

Read more at https://www.sohnheartsandminds.com.au/media/bill-ackman-says-go-long-2021-will-be-very-very-good-year

Indian citizens giving stimulus to the government?

#Petrol price hiked by 21 paise, #diesel by 17 paise in Delhi Today. Both petrol & diesel at over Rs 80/L. Petrol costs Rs 80.13/L & Diesel Rs 80.19/L In Delhi.

In the last 20 days, petrol price raised by Rs 8.87/L & diesel by Rs 10.56/L pic.twitter.com/V6l6DMQHTA

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) June 26, 2020

A ferocious bull market awaits, market leadership to see major shift: Ridham Desai

Ridham Desai, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley India, pointed out that COVID-19 has evinced a very strong fiscal and monetary response the world over and it is quite unprecedented as the world has never seen such a response.

"Even during World War II and in the aftermath of it, we did not see coordinated policy response either across geographies or across agencies. It is multiple times more than the stimulus that was put after the global financial crisis of 2008-09. When we come out of this, all the stimulus waiting to kick in, it is going to create a ferocious bull market around the world," Desai said.

"An unprecedented stimulus has been put in place that is waiting to find its way into the market as well as the economy once the confidence returns. What is required is essentially some comfort that the worst of COVID-19 is over, or more appropriately, we have a vaccine or a cure. So, when the world starts sensing that we have the cure, I think money is going to move into the asset markets," Desai added.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/a-ferocious-bull-market-awaits-market-leadership-to-see-major-shift-ridham-desai-5299181.html

Back to the License Raj of the 1970s?

20 L accounting jugglery?

This Rs.20 lakh crore stimulus package is nothing but accounting jugglery.

— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 15, 2020

Even Serbia is doing much better than us. https://t.co/eypRGT0NOg

— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 15, 2020

Some of you have strongly disagreed with me on providing cash stimulus. Giving cash to poor and leaving more cash with others in the form of tax cuts is the only way to revive demand and the economy.

Some of this can be misused. But use would be far more than misuse.

— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 15, 2020

Why not suppport bottom 50% of households by providing Rs.10,000 a month for say next 6 months?

At best, you've addressed some supply side issues yesterday. How about demand? This 10K would help these families to survive and support demand .@narendramodi @nsitharaman

— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 14, 2020

78% drop in GST collections?

April 2019 was 1.3L Crore.
April 2020 is 28,000 Crore.
A shrinkage of 1.02L Crore.

A 78% Drop. You can fudge the GDP but can't mask the revenue collections a lot. https://t.co/GyzDyDlPHW

— V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் (@iam_anandv) May 1, 2020

Futile exercise to talk about earnings

The road ahead

A leading brand in manufacturing industry has announced that they won't be able to pay salary until June 2020. Possibly till July 2020. State Heads & assistants are told to cut 90% of their staff. NINETY PERCENT. That's the quantum of issue we're expecting. @FinMinIndia

— Sniper (@avarakai) April 23, 2020

Nice thread - the lockdown no longer makes any sense

To understand this we have to first discuss what is a tradeoff that is acceptable. People shy away from this point but it is important as 1.5lakh reported deaths happen in India due to road accidents per year. We do not close roads. Why? Because that would be on net more harmful.

— Harsh मधुसूदन (@harshmadhusudan) April 23, 2020

Yes I know that is the stated plan as of now. But already there has been an extension and I am worried the people have been psyched in such a manner that it might tip any future decision towards another extension and that would be a massive mistake for the country. Must avoid it.

— Harsh मधुसूदन (@harshmadhusudan) April 23, 2020

Banks stare at losses as taxi drivers go home

Lenders for taxis are sure to face a crisis too. Great article in today’s ET.

Coronavirus lockdown: Banks stare at defaults as cabbies go home https://t.co/FapVKRt5RO

— Shivam Shankar Singh (@ShivamShankarS) April 13, 2020

The US will emerge stronger

Been in Wuhan for a week now with @ClaireYChe and @sarahchen. Watching the city emerge from lockdown offers us glimpses of scenes that will likely unfold elsewhere as other cities try to get their economies back on track. Here are some stories that shed light on what’s to come.

— Sharon Chen (@sharonchenhm) April 11, 2020

While the cost of the #coronavirus pandemic will be trillions, the long term gains for the United States are shaping up to be extraordinary. https://t.co/mnjAb6IZwD

— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) April 11, 2020

How economies crash... chain reactions

Bill Gates: Countries that shut down for coronavirus could bounce back in weeks

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on Wednesday urged people to remain calm in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.

In an Ask Me Anything session on the discussion forum Reddit, Gates was asked about how long “this” will last.

“If a country does a good job with testing and ‘shut down’ then within 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases and be able to open back up,” he responded.

Gates has been focused on health for many years as part of his work at the nonprofit Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The comments come days after Gates said he was leaving the boards of Microsoft, which he co-founded in 1975, and Berkshire Hathaway. He said he wanted to focus more on philanthropy.

On Reddit, Gates elaborated on what shutting down means.

“The current phase has a lot of the cases in rich countries. With the right actions including the testing and social distancing (which I call ‘shut down’) within 2-3 months the rich countries should have avoided high levels of infection,” Gates wrote. “I worry about all the economic damage but even worse will be how this will affect the developing countries who cannot do the social distancing the same way as rich countries and whose hospital capacity is much lower.”

Read more at https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-gates-places-that-close-for-coronavirus-could-open-in-6-10-weeks.html

Biggest ECONOMIC DISLOCATON of Independent India?

2/n However, if the above doesn’t happen - here are some things to think about:

We are possibly facing the biggest ECONOMIC DISLOCATON of Independent India.

There is no playbook, no living memory of such an event.

— Haresh Chawla (@hchawlah) March 19, 2020

GST collection crosses Rs 1-trn mark for the fourth month in a row in Feb

Some good news after a long time

Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection crossed the Rs 1-trillion-mark for the fourth month in a row in February at Rs 1.05 trillion. The GST collection, which grew 8.3 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the month, was a tad lower than Rs 1.10 trillion mopped up in the previous month.

GST collection had grown 8.1 per cent y-o-y in January. The mop-up could have been much higher, but tax on imports fell 2 per cent y-o-y. However, experts ruled out the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China on imports since these are contracted three months in advance.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/gst-collection-crosses-rs-1-trn-mark-for-the-fourth-month-in-a-row-in-feb-120030200034_1.html

2008 once more? The world may be headed for another global economic crisis

...For some years now, many analysts have believed that the next major global crisis would start in China, because it was suspected to be hugely overleveraged; equally, if not more important, nobody knew what was really going on. However, with central banks keeping the money feed so easy, markets all over the world kept rising.

Judging from the way equity markets are behaving today, could that time have come?

It is, perhaps, significant that the long rally in US equities since the taper tantrum in 2015 was interrupted only when Trump began braying about a trade war with China in 2018. The Dow fell 15% in a couple of weeks, highlighting the fact that the health of the US economy—and certainly US equity markets—is very tightly linked to the China relationship

Read more at https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/2008-once-more-the-world-may-be-headed-for-another-global-economic-crisis/1877962/

Does MARUTI have any plans in the EV market?

Read more at https://www.ccn.com/tesla-is-slowly-pushing-germany-into-recession/

Guess the question which the FM answered

Hint: what is the target mentioned in the last line

Indian economy headed for ICU?

Headlines may be sensational. But the content has merit. He had a ring side view as well. What he says should disturb all of us. @nsitharaman pic.twitter.com/gk4LaIcR8C

— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) December 14, 2019

Gormint Mathematics

Gormint Mathematics:
1. Our estimated GST revenue is 1L crore a month (50% miss on average).
2. Increase in GST Rate by 1% will increase revenue by 1,000 Crore, even when growth is sliding to < 4%
3. Tax increase will not affect demand.

Harvard should teach this!!!

— V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் (@iam_anandv) December 11, 2019