August 16, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in negative at 11385
- trading range was within prev day's range
- AD was 7:12 (not bad)
- option writing support 11000

Why The Rupee Fall To 70 Is Not A Big Deal - excellent article

Is there a big problem if the USD has appreciated so that it’s Rs. 70 to a dollar? There are some implications, but it’s somehow not that dramatic as its made out to be. We wrote about a few myths about the falling rupee when it did a dive last time in 2013 (Read post: Six myths about a falling rupee). It’s time to look at the rupee in context again.

Why should the rupee depreciate? Or stay strong?

Read more at https://capitalmind.in/2018/08/opinion-why-the-rupee-fall-to-70-is-not-a-big-deal

August 15, 2018

S&P 500 - previous resistance to now offer support


18 Dead, 3 Critical , and 1 Injured?

Stocks at all time high today

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| BATA INDIA1004.552.00%Bullish18/06/18816.5023.03907.10818.009328138878
||||| DABUR INDIA453.002.50%BUY30/07/18393.4515.14422.00370.004283668479
||||| EXIDE INDUSTRIES292.101.00%Bullish15/03/18217.5534.27259.60259.002802537569
||||| IBVENTURES746.654.50%Bullish05/04/18286.95160.20585.10474.006014529588
||||| INFIBEAM198.901.00%BUY20/07/18167.8518.50175.50156.001881498980
||||| INFOSYS1408.300.00%Bullish24/05/181221.0015.341347.501309.00139412688369
||||| IPAPPM458.95-2.50%Bullish26/07/18334.9537.02349.20308.003533037477
||||| JSW STEEL341.100.00%Bullish31/07/18330.403.24321.85293.003332946663
||||| LTTS1531.901.50%Bullish24/07/181458.005.071405.001251.00155911928167
||||| NIITTECH1337.353.50%BUY24/07/181218.859.721225.101074.00128610227770
||||| PAGE IND33231.852.50%BUY28/03/1822684.5546.5029020.0027719.0029676275747974
||||| PFIZER2898.252.00%Bullish20/04/182234.2029.722650.002524.00274724918575
||||| TCS2003.550.00%Bullish12/04/181569.6327.641945.001928.00201518417463
||||| UNITED BREWERIES1336.052.50%Bullish17/04/181084.2523.221089.251031.00120910329373
||||| VINATIORGA1357.201.50%Bullish14/05/18951.3042.67955.00910.009989109387
15 rows
Av return = 32.75

Chat transcripts with ICICI chatbot




August 14, 2018

Stocks at 52 week high and low

Stocks at 52 week high: 

ABFRL - ALBERTDAVD - BALAXI - BATAINDIA - DABUR - EXIDEIND - GALLISPAT - GMMPFAUDLR - IBULISL - IBVENTURES -INFIBEAM - INFY - IPAPPM - ITC - JSWSTEEL - 
LINCOLN - LTTS - LUMAXTECH - NELCO - NEXTMEDIA - NIITTECH - OLECTRA - 
PAGEIND - PERSISTENT - PFIZER - SUNPHARMA - TCI - TCIEXP - TCS - UBL - 

Stocks at 52 week low: 

 CASTROLIND - CCL - CENTUM - DBREALTY - DPSCLTD - ECLERX - HITECHCORP - 
HSIL - INDOTECH - KAJARIACER - LAKPRE - MAXVIL - MCLEODRUSS - MHRIL - 
RBL - REDINGTON - SIMPLEXINF - SKIPPER - SPMLINFRA - SREINFRA - 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in positive at 11435
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11000; may increase to 11400

The Fall & Fall of the Indian Rupee



Source: http://alphaideas.in

My notes: irrespective of whichever govt has come, our currency has always lost value.

August 13, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.6% in negative at 11356
- second day oh lower high lower low
- AD was 1:2 (not bad)
- not much selling after markets opened gap down (good sign)
- option writing support 11000; may increase to 11200 (good sign)

Buy India on any fall as it could be an outperformer in 2019: Sanjiv Bhasin, IIFL

Key options data point at market nearing a top



Read more at   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/65380916.cms

My notes: I have no experience in predicting top or bottoms. No one has either.

Most mutual funds schemes underperform as 70% of stocks with market cap of Rs 1,000 crore are trading in red

Of a sample of 30 large-cap equity schemes only ten have managed to outperform the Value Research average large-cap category over a two-year period. Of the nearly 800 stocks that command a market capitalisation of over Rs 1,000 crore, more than a third have lost more than 20% since January 2018.

The under-performance seems to have taken a toll on investor sentiment because in July, the inflows into equity schemes at `9,452 crore, were at their lowest in four months.

Read more at https://www.financialexpress.com/market/most-mutual-funds-schemes-underperform-as-70-of-stocks-with-market-cap-of-rs-1000-crore-are-trading-in-red/1278765

My notes: there is additional loss of 2 to 2.5% pa on account of management fees. Since it will become more difficult for fund managers to outperform the index, it makes sense to invest in niftybees.

August 12, 2018

From a maths teacher to India's leading option seller: The inspiring journey of PR Sundar @PRSundar64

PR Sundar, a math teacher, learned about options from the most basic source - the stock exchange booklet - that every dealer working in a broker’s office reads. He still maintains that the book is his primary source of knowledge. While the source of information was the same, the knowledge that Sundar could extract from that source was much higher than what most are capable of.

Born in a poor family, Sundar, a post graduate in mathematics, took to teaching as there were few job opportunities back then. A teaching assignment in Singapore helped him save capital to think about returning back to India and starting a business. A strange happenstance brought Sundar to the market and he has never looked back.

A successful trader who earned his spurs in the options market, Sundar continues to teach, only this time the subject has changed to options. But like every good teacher he is more interested in clearing the cobwebs and imparting knowledge, which can remain lifelong, than spoon-feeding strategies.

Q: How did a math teacher end up trading options?
A: After my post-graduation in mathematics from Chennai, I bagged a job as a maths teacher in a school in Gujarat as there were few jobs in south India then. Among the many good things that Gujarat has to offer, one is the interest in share markets and investing, which stuck with me. Since markets are about numbers, I was naturally attracted towards it.

I received an opportunity to work as a maths teacher in Singapore and moved there in 1993. After a 12 year stint in Singapore, I returned back to India with some capital to start a business. I was looking out for an alternate career other than teaching.

By a fortunate coincidence a relative,

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/from-a-maths-teacher-to-indias-biggest-option-seller-the-inspiring-journey-of-pr-sundar-2832331.html?platform=hootsuite

You must learn to love cutting losses




SBI results are super bullish for private financiers. @BMTheEquityDesk





Friday’s action on bank nifty/sbi could only be traded real time @GujralAshwani




August 11, 2018

Why markets are irrational @PRSundar64




Why some passive income will not hurt




NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week, nifty traded in small range and closed in positive
- support 11000

BANKNIFTY charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- Friday showed reversal of Thursday gains
- closing is still at all time high (weekly charts)
- support 27000 - 27600 (prev ATH)






How a currency meltdown in Turkey threatens Europe

The Turkish currency plummeted as much as 17% against the dollar, reflecting a range of concerns, including tensions with the United States and the unwillingness of Turkish authorities to raise interest rates.

President Donald Trump, who imposed sanctions on senior Turkish officials earlier this month for their role in the detention of an American pastor, upped the stakes on Friday with a promise to increase metals tariffs on Turkey.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was defiant.

"Don't forget this: if they have dollars, we have our people, justice and God," he said. "We will come out of the economic war successfully."

The rhetoric did little to calm markets. The lira, which has dropped almost 40% against the dollar this year, resumed its slide as Erdogan spoke.

Read more at https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/10/news/economy/turkish-lira-dollar-usd/index.html

Gujarat’s bitcoin-based Ponzi scheme could lead to India’s largest banking scandal

A $3 billion scam could be unfolding in Gujarat as probe into an alleged Ponzi scheme reveals tax evasion, police corruption and a fugitive politician.

Accusations of tax evasion and police corruption, a kidnapper who was kidnapped, a fugitive politician, and billions in bitcoin lost. This is crypto-trading Gujarat-style.

The ingredients are part of an investigation in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state into allegations that investors poured cash into a bitcoin-based Ponzi scheme that could exceed the country’s largest banking scandal. The fallout extends as far as Texas and has embroiled a former lawmaker, tarnishing Modi’s ruling party months before an election.

It began in February, when property developer Shailesh Bhatt charged into the Home Minister’s office in Modi’s home state of Gujarat, claiming he had been kidnapped by a group of policemen and told to pay 200 bitcoin, worth some $1.8 million at the time, for his release. He said he had nowhere else to go.

The state’s elite Criminal Investigation Department was called in and the evidence it has uncovered points to a potential fraud on an epic scale. Eight policemen have been indicted and suspended pending trial. The abduction was allegedly spearheaded by Bhatt’s associate, Kirit Paladiya, and masterminded by Paladiya’s uncle Nalin Kotadiya, a former lawmaker in Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, according to Ashish Bhatia, the lead CID investigator. Bhatt has been charged too, as the allegations of kidnapping widened.

Paladiya is now in jail, facing charges of abduction and extortion, and Bhatt and Kotadiya are both absconding, according to police. Kotadiya posted a video via Whatsapp in April denying wrongdoing and saying he’d informed authorities about the crypto scam, said Prashant Dayal, a senior Gujarati journalist who broke the story.

In the video, reposted on Youtube, Kotadiya says Bhatt is responsible for the scam and threatens to release evidence that could implicate other politicians. Both Bhatt and Paladiya have denied wrongdoing, according to their lawyers.

Between late 2016 and early 2017, Bhatt invested in BitConnect, a cryptocurrency firm that was being promoted in Gujarat by a man called Satish Kumbhani, according to Bhatia, the CID investigator, in an interview at his office late June.

Kumbhani is one of the founders of BitConnect, which has allegedly scammed individuals across the globe, according to Crypto Watchdogs, a group of six investors who’ve filed a U.S. federal lawsuit against the company. The firm recruited clients worldwide to deposit bitcoin and receive BitConnect coins they could lend ...

Read more at https://theprint.in/economy/gujarats-bitcoin-based-ponzi-scheme-could-lead-to-indias-largest-banking-scandal/96241/

August 10, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed  0.5% in negative 11430
- AD was 1:2
- option writing support 11000

- note that even as markets have moved to 11400+ levels, option writing support has not increased
- this means writers are bullish but expect a small correction such that 11000 will not break

Mumbai contributes over 50% share in equity trading

August 9, 2018

Hot stocks and charts

Hot stocks

LAST updated: 09-AUG-2018 
ACC
ACC chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.2% in positive at 11470
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11000
- swing low support 11200

Can you double your capital this week? @GujralAshwani




IMF says India's economy is an elephant that's starting to run, flags risks

India is on track to hold its position as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies as reforms start to pay off, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The $2.6 trillion economy was described by Ranil Salgado, the IMF’s mission chief for India, as an elephant starting to run, with growth forecast at 7.3 per cent in the fiscal year through March 2019 and 7.5 per cent in the year after that. The nation accounts for about 15 per cent of global growth, according to the Washington-based fund.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/imf-says-india-s-economy-is-an-elephant-that-s-starting-to-run-flags-risks-118080800342_1.html

August 8, 2018

Tata Nexon awarded 4 stars by Global NCAP (crash test video)

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.5% in positive at 11450
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11000

- defining new swing low at 11200

August 7, 2018

DJIA breakout?




PETRONET bullish if stock does not break 200 this year


LUPIN bullish above 1000 on weekly charts

LICHSGFIN breakout above 600

ITC breakout on weekly charts

HAVELLS breakout


DABUR breakout... missed this trade


BPCL weekly charts


BEL takes support on 4 year weekly charts


AXSIBANK huge triangle on weekly charts


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat at 11389
- AD was 8:10 (v good)
- option writing support 11000

Probability of Profit | An Option Trader's Best Friend

Right to free speech




August 6, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.2% in positive at 11387
- trading range was small
- AD 10:7
- option writing support 11000

Successful trading is about learning to deal with failure.

Successful trading is about learning to deal with failure. That's a psychological and emotional issue that you're going to have to contend with for your entire career. Not addressing it creates a blind spot.

You should anticpate losing with greater frequency than winning. If you have a thing about needing to be "right" all the time, trading is not for you. 

Your goal should be to make gains over losses over a finite period of time that provides you a balanced lifestyle. Working 90 hour workweeks is not sustainable.

Spending all day in front of your computer staring at charts will neither make you lose less frequently, nor lose smaller amounts of capital, nor give you more control over the markets.

The best you can do is have an ethos you can replicate. You cannot harvest cash from the markets just because you have a system or know how to read a chart. You must become comfortable with probabilities and expected values.

You should view the market as the most cagey person you've ever met. It will say one thing and do another. It will be unreliable. It will seem to make you promises and break them. It will cheat on you. It will talk behind your back. It will agree to meet you at a certain time and place and then never show up. Get used to it.

All trading systems look good on paper. You need to have the right psychology in order to both deploy them and stick with them...and you won't know that until you begin putting capital at risk


What Every Option Trader Should Know About Delta

Delta is the sensitivity of an option’s price with regards to the movement of the related underlying future or security. It is expressed both as a percentage and a total. A call option with an estimated 25 delta suggests that the call option is one-quarter as sensitive as compared to the corresponding underlying. It implies that you would need 4 25 delta options to replicate the performance of a one-point move in the underlying.

• Professional traders think of an option’s delta as a hedge ratio; to what extent the option offsets or emulates the underlying. Professional traders learn very quickly that an option’s delta is only useful for a fractional move within that precise snapshot of time which it is calculated. An option’s delta can and does lose its relevance when there are changes in time, movement, and implied volatility.

• From a pedestrian viewpoint, it appears logical to envision an option’s delta using a simple equiprobable decision tree (i.e. a 50% chance of either an up or down move in the underlying) to price a call option. Yet this mind thought is dangerously flawed due to the conceptual problem of linking the resultant delta value with a probability.

Read more at https://martinkronicle.com/option-trading-delta/

August 5, 2018

AFL to explore stocks closing at All Time High

>>>
Filter=Cross(C,Ref(Highest(H),-1)) AND C>20 AND Ref(C,-120)>0;

AddColumn(C,"Close",1.2);
AddColumn(ROC(C,1),"% Ch 1D",1.2);
<<<

Result:



NOTE: Filter ignores stocks < Rs.20/- and trading for less than 120 days.

How to pyramid Your Way To Profits

Pyramiding involves adding to profitable positions to take advantage of an instrument that is performing well. It allows for large profits to be made as the position grows.

Pyramiding is not "averaging down" it is "averaging up" adding to a position to take full advantage of high-performing assets and thus maximizing returns.

Pyramiding works because a trader will only ever add to positions that are turning a profit and showing signals of continued strength. These signals could be continued as the stock breaks to new highs, or the price fails to retreat to previous lows. Basically, we are taking advantage of trends by adding to our position size with each wave of that trend.

Pyramiding is also beneficial in that risk (in terms of maximum loss) does not have to increase by adding to a profitable existing position. Original and previous additions will all show profit before a new addition is made, which means that any potential losses on newer positions are offset by earlier entries.

Example:

You get a buy signal in ASIANPAINT on 16-APR at 1180 with SL 60 points.

For simplicity, we will consider a buy only if stock moves 60 points above our last purchase price i.e. 1180.

This means the next buy should be considered only if stock closes above 1180+60=1240. This happened on 11-MAY at 1286 (say 1290).

Our next buy should be considered only if stock closes above 1290+60=1350. This happened on 9-JUL at 1363 (say 1365).

Our next buy should be considered only if stock closes above 1365+60=1425. This happened on 3-AUG at 1412.

And so on.

NOTE:

I have not discussed trailing stoploss here to keep things simple. Ideally you should recalculate SL at every new buy and then using this new SL, calculate the new "buy above" level.

When the last trade gets stoplossed, you should exit all positions. In effect, stoploss hit will be funded by the second last open position.



Side note: This is a rough draft... hope to improve on this.

August 4, 2018

Only buy signals this Friday

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| ASTRAZEN1725.107.50%BUY17/04/18994.5573.461420.001382.00157513709180
||||| AVANTIFEED510.556.00%BUY03/08/18510.550.00420.05390.005433908157
||||| BBTC1614.704.00%BUY18/04/181368.9517.951451.151439.00159514048468
||||| CROMPTON251.003.00%BUY23/07/18240.554.34232.40224.002472227766
||||| CUMMINS INDIA703.306.00%BUY03/08/18703.300.00630.00613.006956137865
||||| DELTA CORP266.458.00%BUY30/07/18248.157.37211.50198.002591987766
||||| EDELWEISS315.453.00%BUY03/08/18315.450.00273.65267.003142677261
||||| ENDURANCE1462.904.00%BUY25/07/181325.2010.391254.001200.00140012009477
||||| EROSMEDIA125.802.50%BUY03/08/18125.800.00103.60103.001251048360
||||| GAIL INDIA388.202.50%BUY10/07/18363.956.66355.40342.003863338875
||||| GLAXO PHARMA3293.703.00%BUY17/04/182381.6538.292760.852732.00324927329181
||||| GLENMARK PHARMA597.351.50%BUY03/08/18597.350.00558.40547.006035479065
||||| GODFRYPHLP832.500.50%BUY26/07/18778.256.97694.05670.008246718269
||||| GSKCONS6793.552.50%BUY23/05/186218.809.246333.356150.00672561508167
||||| HAVELLS INDIA643.451.00%BUY06/04/18533.1520.69574.95544.006365308876
||||| INDIABULL HSG FIN1377.506.00%BUY19/07/181212.0513.651175.101106.00134611067971
||||| IBVENTURES623.903.00%BUY05/04/18286.95117.42503.00452.006014529181
||||| IIFL700.803.00%BUY03/08/18700.800.00619.75590.006855908263
||||| JKPAPER151.256.50%BUY27/07/18118.3527.80102.0597.00131979480
||||| JSW STEEL337.301.50%BUY31/07/18330.402.09300.00293.003332948064
||||| MERCK2402.157.50%BUY03/08/182402.150.002195.352100.00239721007559
||||| NIITTECH1293.604.00%BUY24/07/181218.856.131098.651022.00128610228273
||||| PHILIPCARB264.257.00%BUY30/07/18245.757.53200.05197.002591977768
||||| RAIN209.354.50%BUY03/08/18209.350.00177.00162.002061627358
||||| RAJESHEXPO604.355.00%BUY03/08/18604.350.00560.50559.006075607966
||||| RELIANCE COM15.655.50%BUY03/08/1815.650.0012.5011.8016129166
||||| SPTL43.655.00%BUY31/07/1841.355.5629.4029.4043298061
||||| SUNTECK417.552.00%BUY03/08/18417.550.00383.95372.004143518067
||||| TORRENT PHARMA1622.656.50%BUY16/04/181347.5020.421404.551404.00153313919279
||||| TTK PRESTIGE6383.553.50%BUY27/07/186135.854.045720.005720.00632457208978
||||| VIP INDUSTRIES528.357.50%BUY24/07/18468.1012.87419.00399.005053998475
||||| WELSPUN INDUSTRIES60.354.00%BUY27/07/1856.456.9149.0048.8058499171
||||| WHIRLPOOL1762.601.00%BUY23/07/181575.3011.891557.001501.00175514968880

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