August 31, 2018

You opened a bank account in my name without my authorization.




NIFTY options open interest distribution

- markets still bullish
- highest open interest now at 11600
- this may increase to 11700

- 12000 likely to offer resistance (big round number)



Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 11680
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11600

August 30, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11677
- AD was positive at 5:4
- will update option support tomorrow (should be bullish)

Possible 2019 Election Outcomes and Impact on Markets

The US Stock Market Is Shrinking. That’s a Problem for Everyone.

The American stock market has been shrinking. It’s been happening in slow motion — so slow you may not even have noticed. But by now the change is unmistakable: The market is half the size of its mid-1990s peak, and 25 percent smaller than it was in 1976.

“This is troubling for the economy, for innovation and for transparence,” said RenĂ© Stulz, an Ohio State finance professor who has written a new report on these issues for the National Bureau of Economic Research.

When I say “shrinking,” I’m using a specific definition: the reduction in the number of publicly traded companies on exchanges in the United States. In the mid-1990s, there were more than 8,000 of them. By 2016, there were only 3,627, according to data from the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Because the population of the United States has grown nearly 50 percent since 1976, the drop is even starker on a per-capita basis: There were 23 publicly listed companies for every million people in 1975, but only 11 in 2016, according to Professor Stulz.

Read more at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/business/shrinking-stock-market.html

August 29, 2018

Open interest distribution

- persistent build up in put writing this series
- support has been shifting from 11000 to 11200 and then to 11400-11500
- yesterday, it looked like support will shift to 11700

- but today things changed

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today Nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 11692
- AD was 8:9 (actually very good)
- option writing resistance 11800 (separate post on this)

Nothing wrong with cloning: Mohnish Pabrai

Volatility is the friend of a long-term investor: Mohnish Pabrai

You run a highly-concentrated portfolio. Rain Industries and Fiat Chrysler make up for almost 45% of your portfolio...

Out of about $700 million of Pabrai funds, $400 million is three stocks — Fiat Chrysler, Rain Industries and Sunteck. In both Rain and Sunteck, we own 10%. They were all bought at what I would call a PE of 1 or less. All of these have gone up quite a bit since we bought them. We have decent amount of cash, but we have what I would call some great busines ..

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/65570377.cms

Free Direct Mutual Fund Portals: Is this a healthy development?

...Even today scores of Indians believe that investing in mutual funds via their banks or via certain portals or via their sales guy offering door service is “free”. They believe that these agencies are paid commissions from the fund houses. They also believe (or given that impression explicitly or implicitly by these agencies) that the commissions come from “elsewhere” without understanding that when you buy a “regular mutual fund plan”, commissions are removed from your current investment value every day before the NAV is published. The share of such regular plan retail AUM stands at about 75-80% today. Well for those who understand how commissions work, it is quite clear that this is the most profitable way to sell mutual funds.

Read more at https://freefincal.com/free-direct-mutual-fund-portals

Stocks at 52 week highs

Stocks making all time highs

August 28, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.4% in positive at 11738
- a small doji was formed
- AD was 7:10
- option writing support 11500... may increase to 11700

Was there a crash in the Indian stock market?

So what if the markets went up? My stocks tanked .... heard on the street.

705 of the stocks corrected over 30% even as the index was stable.




August 27, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed 1.2% in positive at 11692
- AD was positive but flat
- option writing support 11500; may increase to 11600

Staying unfazed by 17 straight losses early on helped this trader find the Holy Grail of trading

...I realised that the systems and strategies account for only 20 percent of the success. Money management and trading psychology account for 40 percent each if one wants to become a successful trader.

Another important point that I learned from Douglas is one needs to take at least 25 trades with flawless execution before changing the strategy. Yet in my experience, I can tell you that out of 100 traders not more than 5-6 will be able to test a strategy for the complete 25 trades without changing any parameters. It requires a lot of discipline and conviction to complete the 25 trades without tweaking the parameters.

Q: How soon did you turn profitable?

A: This knowledge, however, did not bring me instant success. I was still losing money and winning it back. I was in the revolving door business till Carter told me to look for price action rather than indicators. Technical indicators are just a pictorial indication of price actions. Price action is the purest form of trading, he said.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/staying-unfazed-by-17-straight-losses-early-on-helped-this-trader-find-the-holy-grail-of-trading-2882331.html

August 26, 2018

Swing trading signals :: 24-AUG-2018

Swing trading signals :: 24-AUG-2018

  • This report is for your personal use only and is valid for next trading day.
  • Signals are generated using the kplswing indicator.
  • Algorithm: BUY signal is generated if a stock closes above 20 days high.
  • Stock name is highlighted in case of first signal of the trend.
  • Exits: There are no targets and exits are based on a trailing stoploss. Returns are whatever the market gives - 20%, 100%, etc.
  • Stoploss: use fixed SL to limit losses and trailing SL for profit booking.
  • Trailing SL: For long positions, use weekly low or 10 days low.
  • Click on stock name link for charts, more info etc
  • Limit investment per stock to 3% of trading capital or limit loss per trade to max 1% of your trading capital.
  • Important: Trade in cash only and never in futures.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| good liquidity - ||||| excellent liquidity. Avoid stocks with ||||| low liquidity.
This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell

All signals:

Buy signals:
BAJFINANCE - BHEL - GPIL - HINDZINC - INFIBEAM - IOLCP - JSWSTEEL - MPHASIS - ONGC - PFIZER - RBLBANK - SHREECEM - TATACHEM -

Sell signals: 
Stocks gaining >5%: AJMERA - AMRUTANJAN - BALRAMCHIN - BHEL - GPIL - MATRIMONY - MUTHOOTCAP - PFIZER - SEQUENT - SHILPAMED -SREINFRA - SUDARSCHEM - VIVIMEDLAB - ZENSARTECH -

Stocks losing >5%: 

Stocks at 52 week high: 

Stocks at 52 week low: 

Nifty 200 stocks

Stock nameCloseChange20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month's52 week
TrendDateFixed SLTrailing SLHighLowHighLow
||||| BAJFINANCE2916.600.50%BUY17/05/182754.202654.802797228129431511
||||| BHEL80.208.50%BUY24/08/1871.7070.30786410864
||||| FCONSUMER44.10-2.00%SELL24/01/1848.5551.1050397939
||||| HEXAWARE426.15-14.00%SELL24/08/18500.90500.90558441558259
||||| HINDZINC292.302.00%BUY06/08/18272.05269.00284261340261
||||| ICICIGI745.50-1.00%SELL24/08/18815.00815.00800688872639
||||| INDUSINDBK1928.15-1.00%SELL24/08/182011.002038.002002187820381572
||||| JSWSTEEL354.804.00%BUY31/07/18326.85309.00333294356230
||||| M&MFIN463.75-2.00%SELL24/08/18503.75526.85527447534386
||||| MPHASIS1255.603.00%BUY06/04/181148.001103.00124810621264572
||||| ONGC174.751.50%BUY01/08/18162.50158.20167152213152
||||| RBLBANK609.702.00%BUY08/06/18560.00556.10590546613443
||||| SHREECEM18373.202.00%BUY10/07/1816950.0016495.7018080154271984914980
||||| TATACHEM729.852.50%BUY17/08/18648.25648.25727656788568
||||| TATACOMM542.50-1.00%SELL26/06/18600.00603.10624534754534

Get this report everyday by email. Click here for more 

August 25, 2018

CNX Midcap technicals

- trend is up
- buy call in mutual funds given few weeks is still valid
- resistance 20400



NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- support 11111 ... a random but reasonable number I made up
- signs of selling at higher levels
- but this selling is very weak
- bears are not interested in shorting this market




BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily and weekly charts
- sideways movement seen for past 2-3 weeks
- support 27600 resistance 28400
- after breakout, expect a move of 800 points... direction unknown

Time is precious even on cosmological timeframes

The Universe Is Disappearing, And There’s Nothing We Can Do To Stop It

...on average, twenty thousand stars transition every second from being reachable to being unreachable. The light they emitted a second ago will someday reach us, but the light they emit this very second never will. It’s a disturbing, sobering thought, but there’s also a more optimistic way to view it: this is the Universe reminding us how precious every second is. It’s the Universe telling us that if we ever want to travel beyond our own local group — beyond the gravitationally bound set of objects made up of Andromeda, the Milky Way and about 60 small, satellite galaxies — that every moment we delay is another opportunity being lost.

Of the estimated two trillion galaxies in our Universe today, only about 3% of them are still reachable from the point of view of the Milky Way. This also means that 97% of the galaxies in our observable Universe are already out of humanity’s reach, owing to the accelerated expansion of the Universe caused by dark energy. Every galaxy beyond our local group, as time goes on, is destined for that same fate.

Read more at https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/the-universe-is-disappearing-and-theres-nothing-we-can-do-to-stop-it-e4dc82220293

August 24, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed marginally in the red at 11557
- AD was 7:10 (not bad)
- option writing support 11500-11000

- notice very rangebound movement in past 3 days

Video: Understanding Straddles And Strangles in options @ap_pune

Excellent video for option traders. Strategies given have helped me a lot.

Watch at https://www.bloombergquint.com/in-the-news/2018/08/23/understanding-straddles-and-strangles#gs.q8MIwHs


August 23, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11583
- AD was 4:5
- option writing support now at 11500

Things I learned about life from day trading millions of dollars

I was a day trader for many years, and it almost killed me.

I made money by making profits on my own money and also taking a percentage of the profits for the people I traded for. I traded up to $40 million or $50 million a day at my peak. I did this from 2001 to 2004.

I learned about day trading but I also learned a lot about myself and what I was good at, what I was horrible at, and what I was psychotic at. Things that had nothing to do with day trading.

Day trading is the best job in the world on the days you make money. You make a trade, then maybe 20 minutes later you are out of the trade with a profit, and for the rest of the day you think about how much money you made.

It’s the worst job in the world on a bad day. I would make a trade, it would go against me, and then I wanted my heart to stop so my blood would stop thumping so loudly.

I did it for years, though, because I was unemployable in every other way.

Here’s what I learned. All of these lessons I will certainly use today, many years after I stopped day trading.

A) You can’t predict the future. Everyone thinks they can. But they can’t.

This applies not just to trading but everything. You could be married for 10 years and the next thing you know you are divorced and you would not have predicted that.

You could be healthy all your life and drink your vegetables and exercise and reduce stress, and a year later you could be dead from cancer.

You’d have much less stress if you let go of trying to predict the future.

You can always seek to increase the odds in your favor. if I don’t jump off bridges, for instance, it’s more likely I’ll be alive a year from now. But certainly a path to unhappiness is thinking the future can be predicted and controlled.

B) Hope is not a strategy.

If you get to the point where you “hope” you don’t get ruined, then you did something wrong beforehand.

Read more at https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/02/12-or-13-things-i-learned-about-life-from-day-trading-millions-of-dollars/

Life when it was like 20-30 years ago




August 21, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed marginal in positive at 11571
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11400
- more additions seen in 11500 put

August 20, 2018

Nerve racking to see people short in the market @JeetSituationM




Kerala Floods: Bipolar Impact on Stocks

Bi-polar impact of Kerala deluge: big win coming for some & permanent loss for others.

Big win : Reconstruction, Supply n Leverage

– Cement, roofing, pipe, electrical, wood and plywood cos will have an unprecedented demand starting 15days for next 3months at least fm the staggering amount of reconstruction needed. A fortnight of poor offtake that too in midst of monsoon low season is nothing.

Cement – Ramco,Ind Cement
Wires – Vguard
Roofing- Everest, Visaka
Steel – JSW n others
Electrical – Havells, CG
Other- HIL, Cera

– Lower income households and MSMEs are the biggest users of Gold loans cos and therefore a dramatically higher demand for loans can be expected. On the other hand there will be rising delinquency but as collateral(LTV sub 75pct) is gold, a strong n liquid asset, the net impact will be NIL.

– PV sales will rocket as cars in thousands have been damaged beyond repair. Maruti n Mahindra

– Roads estimated over 5k km have been damaged and need repair or rebuild at express pace. Tar/ Bitumen manufacturers will see demand surge

– Organised retail chains like Big Bazaar n Reliance Mart are running out of stock. In ST their ability to manage supply chain will stand out compared to mom-pop shops.

– Massive medical demand of anti-infection, gastroenteritis, antibacterial etc. Cipla, DRL, Abbott best placed

The ones really impacted are:

Read more at http://alphaideas.in/2018/08/20/kerala-floods-bipolar-impact-on-stocks/

NIFTY options open interest distribution

- trend is up
- support 11400-11000



Source: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/option-chain#gs.eLGfu_o

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in positive at 11551
- AD was flat
- option writing support jumps to 11400 from 11000
- highest increase in OI was in 11500 put. Will this be new support?

Why do professional poker players make good traders?

..The most successful poker players and investors know what it feels like to take a serious risk, and they don’t let it rattle them too much. Maybe they’ve even “pushed the rent money into the middle of the table,” Brown says.

“People who haven’t had that experience find it very difficult to separate the decision from the result,” he said. In other words, both gamblers and traders must be able to judge their decision-making process impartially and understand why it worked or didn’t. If they can’t do that, they’ll just start imitating the trades and bets that have made them money in the past. That’s a quick way to “blow up” in both investing and poker. And if you did that? “You’re just doubling up until you lose,” he said. “But it’s a very human strategy.”

In both fields, it helps to have what Brown calls a “zero memory”attitude, meaning that you quickly forget your defeats and don’t let them throw you for a loop. “You can’t let recent events affect your thinking,” Brown said. That goes for both a bad hand and a bad trade. “People tend to make very different decisions after gains and after losses, and that’s just fatal to trading,” Brown said. “People tend to get more stubborn after taking big losses and stubbornness is a real problem.”

Read more at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-poker-sharks-have-in-common-with-wall-street-traders-2018-01-18

August 18, 2018

NSE advance decline line

- the horrendous selloff in stocks this year has taken a pause
- so far, rally has broad based participation
- but NIFTY PE is around 28

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly and monthly charts
- still cannot understand why people are short in this market and adding more
- 11000 expected to hold this month and maybe next month also
- stiff resistance expected around 12000

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily, weekly and monthly charts
- support 27600-27000

August 17, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up
- today NF closed 0.8% in positive at 11471
- AD was 5:3
- option writing support 11000

August 16, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in negative at 11385
- trading range was within prev day's range
- AD was 7:12 (not bad)
- option writing support 11000

Why The Rupee Fall To 70 Is Not A Big Deal - excellent article

Is there a big problem if the USD has appreciated so that it’s Rs. 70 to a dollar? There are some implications, but it’s somehow not that dramatic as its made out to be. We wrote about a few myths about the falling rupee when it did a dive last time in 2013 (Read post: Six myths about a falling rupee). It’s time to look at the rupee in context again.

Why should the rupee depreciate? Or stay strong?

Read more at https://capitalmind.in/2018/08/opinion-why-the-rupee-fall-to-70-is-not-a-big-deal

August 15, 2018

S&P 500 - previous resistance to now offer support


18 Dead, 3 Critical , and 1 Injured?

Stocks at all time high today

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| BATA INDIA1004.552.00%Bullish18/06/18816.5023.03907.10818.009328138878
||||| DABUR INDIA453.002.50%BUY30/07/18393.4515.14422.00370.004283668479
||||| EXIDE INDUSTRIES292.101.00%Bullish15/03/18217.5534.27259.60259.002802537569
||||| IBVENTURES746.654.50%Bullish05/04/18286.95160.20585.10474.006014529588
||||| INFIBEAM198.901.00%BUY20/07/18167.8518.50175.50156.001881498980
||||| INFOSYS1408.300.00%Bullish24/05/181221.0015.341347.501309.00139412688369
||||| IPAPPM458.95-2.50%Bullish26/07/18334.9537.02349.20308.003533037477
||||| JSW STEEL341.100.00%Bullish31/07/18330.403.24321.85293.003332946663
||||| LTTS1531.901.50%Bullish24/07/181458.005.071405.001251.00155911928167
||||| NIITTECH1337.353.50%BUY24/07/181218.859.721225.101074.00128610227770
||||| PAGE IND33231.852.50%BUY28/03/1822684.5546.5029020.0027719.0029676275747974
||||| PFIZER2898.252.00%Bullish20/04/182234.2029.722650.002524.00274724918575
||||| TCS2003.550.00%Bullish12/04/181569.6327.641945.001928.00201518417463
||||| UNITED BREWERIES1336.052.50%Bullish17/04/181084.2523.221089.251031.00120910329373
||||| VINATIORGA1357.201.50%Bullish14/05/18951.3042.67955.00910.009989109387
15 rows
Av return = 32.75

Chat transcripts with ICICI chatbot




August 14, 2018

Stocks at 52 week high and low

Stocks at 52 week high: 

ABFRL - ALBERTDAVD - BALAXI - BATAINDIA - DABUR - EXIDEIND - GALLISPAT - GMMPFAUDLR - IBULISL - IBVENTURES -INFIBEAM - INFY - IPAPPM - ITC - JSWSTEEL - 
LINCOLN - LTTS - LUMAXTECH - NELCO - NEXTMEDIA - NIITTECH - OLECTRA - 
PAGEIND - PERSISTENT - PFIZER - SUNPHARMA - TCI - TCIEXP - TCS - UBL - 

Stocks at 52 week low: 

 CASTROLIND - CCL - CENTUM - DBREALTY - DPSCLTD - ECLERX - HITECHCORP - 
HSIL - INDOTECH - KAJARIACER - LAKPRE - MAXVIL - MCLEODRUSS - MHRIL - 
RBL - REDINGTON - SIMPLEXINF - SKIPPER - SPMLINFRA - SREINFRA - 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in positive at 11435
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11000; may increase to 11400