July 23, 2019

Achhe Din 2.0

Image

July 22, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 11337
- AD was 1:2 (not bad)

- but 460 stocks made new 52 week lows! this is bad

- option writers feel 11300 will hold this week... let's see

Lieutenant Indra Lal Roy - India's only World War 1 fighter pilot/ ace

Indra Lal Roy in his Royal Flying Corps uniformIndra Lal Roy (2 December 1898 – 22 July 1918) is the sole Indian World War I flying ace. He is designated as First Indian Fighter Aircraft Pilot. While serving in the Royal Flying Corps and its successor, the Royal Air Force, he claimed ten aerial victories; five aircraft destroyed (one shared), and five 'down out of control' (one shared) in just over 170 hours flying time.


Roy was killed over Carvin on 22 July 1918 in a dog fight against the Fokker D.VIIs of Jagdstaffel 29. He is buried at Estevelles Communal Cemetery, Pas-de-Calais, France

Awards and honours

Roy was posthumously awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross (DFC) in September 1918 for his actions during the period of 6–19 July 1918. He was the first Indian to receive the DFC. His citation read:

"A very gallant and determined officer, who in thirteen days accounted for nine enemy machines. In these several engagements he has displayed remarkable skill and daring, on more than one occasion accounting for two machines in one patrol. (20 September 1918)[16]

In December 1998, to mark the 100th anniversary of his birth, the Indian postal service issued a commemorative stamp in his honour


My notes: the fighter planes of that era were rudimentary at the best. Not more than 8-10 instruments, no pressurisation, not sure if radio was there, no ejection system.

You can read more about the plane at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Aircraft_Factory_S.E.5

SE5A at Old Warden.jpg

A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.

A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths: 

1. Anything can happen.

2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

5. Every moment in the market is unique

July 21, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000
- markets can spend several weeks/ months at this level

 

BANK NIFTY charts

Daily charts:
- trend is down
- a crucial support broke decisively this Friday
- next significant support 28500
- this corresponds to roughly 11000 region on nifty

July 19, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.5% in negative at 11420

- AD was 1:3 ... this is actually not bad

- I am discarding channel view from here on
- reason is break of lower trendline without retest of upper trendline

- note gap between 11400 and 11600 is filled
- I don't know if this can be considered as a bullish sign

- overlapping moves as seen in June and July (so far) are corrective moves
- trending moves are usually fast

Self goal of the highest order

BANKNIFTY hourly charts

- trading in rectangle / height 500 points
- support 30300
- resistance 30800
-31200 (if breakout happens)

NIFTY futures channel on hourly charts

- expect lower trendline to provide support
- resistance 11650

July 18, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 11597
- AD was 5:13

- 16 stocks made 52 week highs  and 258 stocks made new 52 week lows

What happens to the Aadhar card when the holder passes away? And the risks involved

UIDAI has not built any process or technology to handle an Aadhaar holder’s death. There are multiple issues that arise from this inability of UIDAI to handle death.



Now, have you wondered what happens to someone’s mobile number once they pass away? Telecom companies deactivate a phone number after 90 days of no usage, and then may assign it to new subscribers after a month or so. In essence, a dead person’s phone number may get assigned to a new person within 4–6 months. (The same reassignment policy applies for anyone who stops using their phone number, dead or alive.)

We know that Aadhaar numbers have a mobile number mapped with them in the UIDAI database, and is used by UIDAI for sending OTPs during authentication. Hence, the phone number owned by a dead person (and updated in UIDAI records) may get assigned to someone else six months after their death, but UIDAI will never find out that this phone number no longer belongs to that dead person.

Read more at https://medium.com/karana/death-of-an-aadhaar-64fb38be07c8

India heading to a debt trap?

Who is your enemy?

Image

Are you a rent seeker or risk taker?



July 17, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 11687
- AD was flat

July 16, 2019

Channel on nifty futures chart

- just observed channeled movement in nifty fut 30 / 60 min charts
- channeled moves are usually a correction to prev move
- if channel holds, expect sluggish movement for some more time
- a fast breakout above 11700 can render channel invalid

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in positive at 11661
- AD was flat

- selloff continues in broader market
- but VIX fell by almost 3%

July 15, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11588
- AD was 1:2

- midcaps and smallcaps continued to correct

- 16 stocks made new 52 week highs and 200+ stocks made 52 week lows

The only to reliably make money in the stock market



Source: http://alphaideas.in


July 14, 2019

Welcome the new Bhartiya Janta Congress Party

Did you vote BJP this time or Congress?

Don't worry... everything is fair in politics... there are no permanent enemies, only common interests... your ideology, criminal background, corruption abilities, principles etc simply does not matter.

Just see the tamasha... elected Karnataka representatives want to defect to BJP, Congress MLAs in Goa have already joined BJP ... Maharashtra next?

The voters always get taken for a ride... fact of life.


DHFL may not survive as a ;going concern'?

Wonder who is buying from 500 levels to below 100 now.... trend is so clearly down.






Read more at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/dhfl-warns-investors-it-may-not-survive-as-a-going-concern/articleshow/70212838.cms

July 12, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3%  in negative at 11553

- AD was flat
- 11 stocks made 52 week highs and 160 stocks made 52 week lows

- nifty still trading within channel

- VIX down 4% ... complacency?

- a breakout above 11600 was sold into

BALAJI AMINES.. funny recommendation by HDFC

Bleak future ahead... still given buy reco on 20-MAY at 439 with TGT 525


See blue arrow.......Stock has lost 100 points since then!!!

July 11, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed .7% in positive at 11583
- AD was flat ... why?

- 14 stocks made 52 week highs and 176 stocks made 52 week lows

- VIX down 8%... why?
- does this mean no fear of any downside?
- or expectation of rangebound markets?

July 10, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 11498
- AD was 6:11

- next deep support area 11000-11000

- today something interesting happened
- VIX increased initially and later dropped after 12pm
- so markets were going down but option prices did not increase
- this usually happens when a bottom is nearby
- let's see... before the budget also VIX dropped but still markets tanked

July 9, 2019

If it moves, tax it... desperate India

The government is targeting foreign investors, high-earning employees and companies to plug its fiscal gap. Such overreach never ends well.

Desperation is creeping into India’s economic policy-making. Having lost the fiscal plot, bureaucrats are trying to marshal resources by squeezing taxpayers, foreign investors, firms planning buybacks and even the central bank. Such overreach never ends well.

Tax collections last year were a full 1 percentage point of GDP lower than the 7.9 per cent the government had hoped to obtain. Rathin Roy, director of the New Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, describes the situation as an “unstated fiscal crisis.” Instead of confronting the sober reality, revamping a flawed goods and services tax, and taking steps to pull the economy out of a synchronized slowdown in consumption and private investment, bureaucrats are trying to make up the revenue shortfall by taxing everything that moves.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/if-it-moves-tax-it-desperation-creeps-into-indian-economic-policy-making-119070900359_1.html

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down
- today nifty closed flat at 11556
- AD was flat

- 10 stocks made 52 week highs and 196 stocks made 52 week lows

Shocking and sad statement from FM




July 8, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts (wef today)
- first warning came on hourly charts on Friday
- today markets closed 2.14% in negative at 11559
- AD was 2:7

- I have drawn one channel
- let us see if markets trade within the channel or break lower trendline
- if markets continue trading within channel, there will be whipsaws

- one thing is clear
- 11800 to 12000 is distribution zone
- recall all my prev posts about nifty PE being 28+
- and other posts showing rally lacked broader market participation

Average intelligence is enough for successful trading




July 7, 2019

July 6, 2019

Market Wizard Linda Raschke’s Technical Trading Rules


  1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.
  2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day.
  3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon.
  4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend.
  5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness.
  6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation.
  7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close.
  8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour.
  9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day.
  10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day.
  11. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.


Do you really need a budget for this?

Rs 4 lakh crore share sale coming to D-street

Option buyers get STT relief, trading a lift

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week nifty closed flat
- entire selling happened on Friday

- stiff resistance seen around 12000 zone
- not a single weekly close has happened above 12K
- the day it happens, expect a min rally of 10-15%

- below 11600 more correction possible

BANK NIFTY technicals

- index is rangebound
- support 30000 resistance 32000
- index is trading near top of the range

July 5, 2019

Market outlook + Budget day analysis

Daily charts:
- today was budget day
- typically these days one sees a lot of volatility
- right enough, markets opened flat but lost 180 points intraday
- (adjusted) close was however 1.1% in negative at 11811
- AD was 5:13

- the level of 11800 is important as it has offered support in the past

- today was also the last day of the week
- and the 5th week when nifty attempted to close above 12000 but could not
- so 12000 becomes a very important swing level

- note today's red bar was the biggest this week and "engulfed" prev 4 day gains
- this means there is a high chance of trend changing to down

- but as markets are rangebound, I will wait for close below 11600
- unless a higher swing low forms

- hourly charts will give signal first for trend reversal

- surprise - vix down actually down 4% so no fear?


Increase public holding from 25% to 35% ... flood of selling?




July 4, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.25% in positive at 11947
- AD was flat

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000-12500

- today 20 stocks made 52 week highs and 90 stocks made 52 week lows

Nouriel 'Dr. Doom' Roubini predicts recession in 2020

Never trust predictions... specially if it comes from a "noted" economist or some professor!



Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/nouriel-dr-doom-roubini-predicts-recession-in-2020-4163901.html

Dish TV promoters may sell 58% stake to Bharti arm, Warburg Pincus for about Rs 5,000cr

Stock has corrected from 100 to 65 and now to 30.... If the promoters had sold few months ago, they could have easily got 10 to 15K crores....



Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/dish-tv-promoters-may-sell-58-stake-to-bharti-airtel-warburg-pincus-for-about-rs-5000cr-4167891.html

July 3, 2019

Stocks gaining more than 5%

DHFL - DISHTV - IBULHSGFIN - IBVENTURES - ITI - PRESTIGE - RUSHIL -

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11917
- AD was 5:4

- VIX dropping down almost everyday
- will budget be a non event?

- swing low 11600 resistance 12100

India's first ever budget




July 2, 2019

Stocks at 52 week highs

ADANIPOWER - BAJFINANCE - BRIGADE - CESC - EMMBI - HDFC - HDFCBANK - 

REFEX - RELAXO - SBILIFE - SBIN - SIEMENS - SRF - TDPOWERSYS -

TORNTPOWER - TRENT - VBL -

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- now I will consider trend reversal only if markets close below 11600

- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11910
- a small hanging man was formed (not significant)
- AD was flat at 8:9

- support 11600 resistance 12100

Fresh investments plunge to a 15-year low

Indian companies, across both private and public sectors, announced new projects worth ₹43,400 crore in the June 2019 quarter, 81% lower than what was announced in March quarter and 87% lower than the same period a year ago.

..........

According to CMIE data, private sector projects are being stalled at unprecedented rates. The stalling rate is calculated as a percentage of the total projects under implementation so that the values are comparable across time. The stalling rate of private sector projects, which has hovered above 20% since the September 2017 quarter, reached an all-time high of 26.1% in the June 2019 quarter. Within sectors, the manufacturing and power sectors have suffered the most with stalling rates of 27.2% and 20.4%, respectively. They along with the service sector contribute to 92% of the total stalled projects.



Read more at https://www.livemint.com/news/india/new-investment-plunges-to-a-15-year-low-1561976363936.html

July 1, 2019

The Valuations Perspective

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11866
- AD was flat ... why?

- swing low 11600 high 12100

June 29, 2019

NIFTY wekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11500-11000
- resistance 12000

- PE at 29+ is a cause of concern
- poor breadth is also a cause of concern

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is down on daily charts
- some people may look at 30000 as a more important support compared to 30500
- this is ok as long as you are consistent

- resistance 32000

June 28, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.45% in negative at 11789
- AD was flat

- note that weekly close was below 11800
- I was hopeful of a nice close above prev week's high

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

- testing new intraday strategy in SBIN (cash).. will post results after a month


When you get stuck with illiquid assets

Revised F&O lot sizes



Source: Twitter

Cox & Kings defaults on payments of Rs.150 crore

Source: https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/cox-kings-defaults-on-payments-of-rs-150-crore-1561654567340.html




But the charts showed there was a problem long time ago... from JAN 2018 to be precise.




June 27, 2019

Almanac of a 100% options buyer




On reading chart patterns... nice thread by @SubhadipNandy

I see a lot of traders following classical chart patterns . Being a pattern follower myself for some years , here is my advice to them as I feel some pointers will improve their accuracy . Again , this is not the only correct way but what I have learnt from my experiences

1. Volume confirmation is a must. Without the volume rules being fulfilled , there is no importance to the pattern

2. Understand where the pattern is taking place within the major price structure of the index/stock. An inverse head and shoulders bottom reversal occurs at market bottoms , not at market tops

3. If a pattern is valid, it will leap out at you from the computer screen

Read more at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/996619500840632320.html

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11841
- AD was 10:7

- there was no follow thru buying to Wed close
- on the other hand we had selling at higher levels
- on the plus side, today was 2nd consecutive close above 11800
- tomorrow is last day of week and month

NSE Advance Decline Line Chart

June 26, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11847
- AD was 10:7

How banking and economics works - DRINK now pay LATER

Mary is the proprietor of a bar. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronise her bar.

To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans) 

Word gets around about Mary's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Mary's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in the area. By providing her customers' freedom from immediate payment demands, Mary gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Mary's gross sales volume increases massively

The world is full of obvious things which nobody ever observes

Uninfluential people whose aggregate actions are enormously influential. 

If you manage a $50 billion hedge fund you will be called a market maven and your investment actions will be viewed with rapt attention when analyzed on CNBC. If you are unassuming Steve from Boeing’s accounts receivable department who invests in a $401(k) plan, no one will pay any attention to you, because poor Steve has no investing influence. But Boeing’s 401(k) plan manages $51 billion, made up almost entirely of people like Steve from accounts receivable. They self-direct their investments, both the allocation and the timing of that allocation. That gives them more trading influence than the $50 billion hedge fund manager, whose supposed influence stems from the ease of focusing on one well-dressed person rather than 85,000 Steves.

It is obvious that an army of Steves has more direct investing influence than any single fund manager. But they escape your attention because Steve by himself makes no difference.

The same is true in elections, consumer spending, and cultural trends: It is easy to underestimate the collective influence of tons of otherwise uninfluential people.

This is partly why the market has performed so well while so many macro investors predicted doom.

Read more at https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/obvious-things-that-easily-escape-attention/

June 25, 2019

Price action trading... nice by @ForNifty




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11796
- AD was flat.. why?

- last 5 days nifty is trading in a range

- intraday trade: short 11700 CE cmp 47 and 11600 PE cmp 30... (total 77) .. stopped out at 85.



5 min charts:

June 24, 2019

Unemployment problem solved by McDonalds?




How much should you spend on your wedding? Interesting thread


NIFTY expiry view




Visit the thread for more details/ explanations.

Who are hawks?




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 11699
- AD was 7:10

- trades today: short intraday 11800 CE and 11700 PE; close by 3.15 ... approx profit 12-13 points.

You don't need complicated indicators to make money




June 23, 2019

Economy in doldrums?

Can this analysis get hilarious? Follow the thread on twitter




Anti fragile?




Forget demonetisation... we have now dewaterisation




June 22, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000-11500
- resistance 12000



Future of Indian cities?

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down on daily charts
- some people may look at 30000 as a more important support compared to 30500
- this is ok as long as you are consistent
- resistance 32000



- kplswing indicator will give sell on close below 30200
- long position is already stoplossed

June 21, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.9 in negative at 11724
- no follow up buying to yesterday's rally
- AD was flat
- VIX up 4%

SEBI sets up panel to review margins on derivatives

“In India, initial margin in equity F&O segment consists of SPAN margin, exposure margin and other additional margins... Across global exchanges considered under review, only SPAN margin is collected as the initial margin. Intermittent periods of higher volatility are covered by applying event-based margins,” stated the report while adding that between January 2014 and March 2019, total initial margin applied was about 20% and 14.65% on options and futures contracts respectively.

Read more at https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/sebi-sets-up-panel-to-review-margins-on-derivatives/article28089359.ece

June 20, 2019

Your Professional Decline Is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think

..Again, the woman: “Oh, stop saying that.”

I didn’t mean to eavesdrop, but couldn’t help it. I listened with morbid fascination, forming an image of the man in my head as they talked. I imagined someone who had worked hard all his life in relative obscurity, someone with unfulfilled dreams—perhaps of the degree he never attained, the career he never pursued, the company he never started.

At the end of the flight, as the lights switched on, I finally got a look at the desolate man. I was shocked. I recognized him—he was, and still is, world-famous. Then in his mid‑80s, he was beloved as a hero for his courage, patriotism, and accomplishments many decades ago.

....For selfish reasons, I couldn’t get the cognitive dissonance of that scene out of my mind. It was the summer of 2015, shortly after my 51st birthday. I was not world-famous like the man on the plane, but my professional life was going very well. I was the president of a flourishing Washington think tank, the American Enterprise Institute. I had written some best-selling books. People came to my speeches. My columns were published in The New York Times.

But I had started to wonder: Can I really keep this going? I work like a maniac. But even if I stayed at it 12 hours a day, seven days a week, at some point my career would slow and stop. And when it did, what then? Would I one day be looking back wistfully and wishing I were dead? Was there anything I could do, starting now, to give myself a shot at avoiding misery—and maybe even achieve happiness—when the music inevitably stops?

Though these questions were personal, I decided to approach them as the social scientist I am, treating them as a research project. It felt un..

Read more at https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/work-peak-professional-decline/590650/

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in positive at 11832
- AD was 11:7

- last 3 days we are having large moves
- this happens at tops and bottoms
- so are the markets bottoming out? quite likely
- very good support 11600 (swing low)

- we already have a buy on hourly charts
- this is because markets crossed yesterday's swing high

- sustaining above 11800 next few weeks can lead to new highs
- break of 11600 can lead to more downsides (looks unlikely right now)

Big Move on the cards?




June 19, 2019

From 10000 to 12000, the rally has been sold into

400 stocks at 52 week low and correction in nifty has yet to start


Swing trading signals :: 19-JUN-2019

  • This report is for your personal use only and is valid for next trading day.
  • Signals are generated using the kplswing indicator.
  • Algorithm: BUY signal is generated if a stock closes above 20 days high and vice versa.
  • Ignore signal if stock is rangebound for extended periods of time.
  • Hint: give preference to stocks making 52 week highs or all time highs or breaking out from a range.
  • Stock name is highlighted in case of first signal of the trend.
  • Exits: There are no targets and exits are based on a trailing stoploss. Returns are whatever the market gives - 20%, 100%, etc.
  • Trailing SL: For long positions, use last week's low or 10 days low.
  • Click on stock name link for charts, more info etc
  • Risk Management: Limit investment per stock to 3% of trading capital.
  • Important: Trade in cash only and never in futures.
This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11691
- the flat closing does NOT disclose what happened intraday
- AD was 5:13

- today we had a nice gap up opening
- but this was sold off into
- note how 11800 is offering resistance
- big intraday fall from 11800 to 11625
- giving a trading range of 175 points

- gap support 11400-11600
- will this gap be filled?

Welcome to the trading / investing den

60% of Institutional Money in 10 Stocks



Why credit analysts must keep an eye on the market

In December last year, the media reported that the market regulator was probing how the country’s credit rating agencies failed to spot stress in IL&FS and maintained high ratings till the default on its debt instruments occurred.

The fact that the rating tumbled from AAA to junk in a matter of weeks was a wake-up call for all players in the debt market. After all, should not a rating agency raise timely red flags ahead of a default?

In an attempt to restore faith in the agencies and ensure that they are not caught napping, SEBI implemented some measures. One of them being...

Read more at https://morningstar.in/posts/53243/bond-analysts-must-keep-eye-stock-market.aspx

No end to auto blues as lenders reduce exposure

Mounting bad debt in the auto sector has resulted in leading retail banks seeking a high collateral for inventory funding—at times, 100% of the loan—making a dire situation worse for a large number of dealers, four people aware of the development from the automobile and banking industries said on the condition of anonymity.

Lenders are being extremely cautious about extending fresh credit to dealers because the outlook for several automobile manufacturers is bleak, said a senior banker. “The situation is particularly bad for a few manufacturers

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/auto-news/no-end-to-automobile-sector-s-blues-as-lenders-reduce-exposure-1560881102353.html

June 18, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 11691
- AD was 7:11

- option writing support 11500

June 17, 2019

Mahindra to observe no production days for up to 13 days this quarter

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) on Saturday said it will shut production across plants for up to 13 days in the ongoing quarter to adjust to market demand.

The company would be observing no production days during the first quarter ranging between 5-13 days across its automotive and farm equipment sector plants, M&M said in a regulatory filing. “The management does not envisage any adverse impact on availability of vehicles in the market due to adequacy of vehicle stocks to serve the market requirements,” it added.

Read more at https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/mahindra-to-observe-no-production-days-for-up-to-13-days-this-quarter/article27696678.ece

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts (wef today)
- today nifty closed 1.35 in negative at 11672
- close was below support of 11800
- AD was 2:7

- next support is gap around 11500-11600

- option writing support 11500-11000

Different perspective: India has wage problem, not job problem: Mohandas Pai

...."India is not producing good jobs, but creating a lot of Rs 10,000-Rs 15,000 low-paid jobs which are not fancied by degree holders. India has a wage problem, not a job problem," he told PTI.

Also, India has regional and geographical problems, Pai said.

Pai suggested that India adopt the Chinese model of opening up labour-intensive industries and building infrastructure near coasts, besides investing heavily in hitech R&D to meet the aspirations of job-seekers.

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/69812223.cms

June 16, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- so far no weekly close above 12000
- lot of selling near 12000 levels (upper wicks)
- lot of stocks making 52 week lows even as market is near all time highs

- support 11000-11500

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- support 30500
- I will consider trend reversal on close below 30500
- resistance 32000



June 15, 2019

The Subramaniam Factor / Sab Golmaal Hai




June 14, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 11823
- AD was 5:12

- this week also, nifty could not close above 12000

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

Misleading GDP data to create more problems

From a maths teacher to India's leading option seller: The inspiring journey of PR Sundar

From a person who managed to lay hands on his first pair of slippers when he reached the 10th grade to be one of the largest individual option sellers in the country is an inspiring journey. The fact that the person was a teacher for the most part of his life makes one wonder about the hidden potential of this individual.

PR Sundar, a math teacher, learned about options from the most basic source - the stock exchange booklet - that every dealer working in a broker’s office reads. He still maintains that the book is his primary source of knowledge. While the source of information was the same, the knowledge that Sundar could extract from that source was much higher than what most are capable of.

Born in a poor family, Sundar, a post graduate in mathematics, took to teaching as there were few job opportunities back then. A teaching assignment in Singapore helped him save capital to think about returning back to India and starting a business. A strange happenstance brought Sundar to the market and he has never looked back.

A successful trader who earned his spurs in the options market, Sundar continues to teach, only this time the subject has changed to options. But like every good teacher he is more interested in clearing the cobwebs and imparting knowledge, which can remain lifelong, than spoon-feeding strategies.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/from-a-maths-teacher-to-indias-biggest-option-seller-the-inspiring-journey-of-pr-sundar-2832331.html

Nice discussion between father and son on investing in MF/ real estate




June 13, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11914
- AD was 1:2

- see how beautifully nifty is trading within range of the recent big red bar.

- VIX down 3%

What is retirement?

Note: I "retired" at 32




NSE to remove Jet Airways shares from daily trading

Jet's securities will now be moved to the trade for trade segment with effect from June 28 as a "preventive surveillance measure", from the current rolling segment, which allows daily trading, the stock exchange said in a circular.

"There are concerns with regard to continuity of flow of information about the company which is very vital for the appropriate price discovery in the scrip," NSE said, adding that trading in the stock may not reflect the actual status of the company.

NSE also cited the company's failure to submit its financial results for the year ended March 31 as well as observations made by the airline's auditor as reasons for the move.

June 12, 2019

Sorry boss, we have stopped redemptions due to a liquidity crisis

..........So typically I will be needing this debt money desperately to buy equities when there is a crisis and equity markets have crashed (now whether I am able to pull it off in reality is a different issue).

The last thing I want is for my debt fund to say that “Sorry boss, we have stopped redemptions due to a liquidity crisis”. Credit funds given their inherent structure have a high probability of getting scr****d up in these scenarios.

So my simple laymanistic reasoning being – why take so much tension for debt returns. As it is equities give me enough of it, but at least the long term payoff is worth the pain

5. From an overall portfolio perspective, the incremental returns mostly go unnoticed

Also if you really think about it, most of us have credit funds as a small portion of overall portfolio. Say Debt is 50% and Equity is 50%. You may have 30% of debt portfolio as credit funds. Now this means it is 15% of overall portfolio.

So assuming you get 1.5% excess returns over short term funds, for the overall portfolio it works to 0.23% excess returns. The effort to reward for this category from an overall portfolio level is too less.

Instead you can focus on reducing the expense ratio of the overall portfolio, which is intellectually boring but easier and more effective.

So make sure you think about the credit fund contribution from an overall portfolio perspective before you make the decision.

So broadly my thesis remains and I will continue to avoid credit funds.

Still want to evaluate Credit funds?

Read more at https://eightytwentyinvestor.com/2019/06/12/debt-funds-revisiting-the-framework/

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11906
- AD was 7:10 (not bad)
- VIX is falling in this correction (good for bulls)

- support 11500-11800 resistance 12200

Classic case of "Trump Derangement Syndrome"

This is when you start getting hysterical or hallucinating of terrible events in the future.

Note that the guy making the comment has nothing to lose if he is wrong... be very careful of such people who give this kind of advice.




On creating fake companies with fake electricity bills




Teach a man how to fish and....

Old saying:

Give a man a fish and he will feed himself for a day

Teach a man how to fish and he will feed himself for life

New saying:

Give a man a fish and he will feed himself for a day

Teach a man how to fish but he will probably be too lazy to fish so he will definitely resell the method

Auto sales go from bad to worse, fall 21% in May

Passenger vehicle sales in India posted the steepest drop in nearly 18 years in May amid weak demand and a liquidity crunch faced by non-bank vehicle financiers, prompting major auto makers to cut production.

Sales fell 20.6% in May to 239,347 vehicles from a year earlier, according to data released on Tuesday by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam). It was the biggest fall since a 22% decline in September 2001 and the seventh consecutive drop in monthly domestic passenger vehicle sales. Vehicle sales in India are counted as factory dispatches and not retail sales.

With retail demand staying weak for several months, some of the top carmakers such as Maruti Suzuki India Ltd and Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd have announced temporary factory closures to trim mounting stocks at their dealerships as well as factories.

Source: https://www.livemint.com/auto-news/auto-sales-go-from-bad-to-worse-fall-21-in-may-1560277126102.html

Some more stats from https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian-car-scene/210043-may-2019-indian-car-sales-figures-analysis.html



June 11, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11966
- AD was 4:5

- incidentally nifty is forming a doji for past 3 days

- support 11800 (next 11500) resistance 12200

Very scary thread on water shortage/ drought in India