September 19, 2019

Don't tamper with nature

Open positions ... now my SL is getting hit


StockClose% ChangeBought atBuy DateRemarksTrailing StoplossReturns %
ADANIPOWER61.90-3.665926/08/2019Hold long positions604.65
AUROPHARMA606.20-2.0359808/08/2019Hold long positions6001.37
BAJAJ-AUTO2738.85-1.38260102/08/2019Exit trade27505.32
BATAINDIA1530.45-0.97147626/08/2019Hold long positions15003.67
BERGEPAINT366.30-0.5036827/08/2019Hold long positions355-0.48
CEATLTD913.350.2789826/08/2019Hold long positions8751.69
COLPAL1328.050.81121008/08/2019Hold long positions12209.77
DABUR458.55-0.3243626/08/2019Hold long positions4305.21
DMART1619.35-1.67145109/08/2019Hold long positions152511.62
HCLTECH1049.55-0.84108808/08/2019Hold long positions1040-3.56
HDFCAMC2607.60-1.31241227/08/2019Hold long positions25008.13
HEROMOTOCO2532.25-1.70246906/08/2019Hold long positions25252.58
HINDALCO195.95-1.0419311/09/2019Hold long positions1901.29
INDIGO1693.950.96168026/08/2019Hold long positions16000.81
JINDALSTEL100.35-4.3410811/09/2019Hold long positions90-6.69
PEL1764.15-3.34195027/08/2019Exit trade1775-9.53
PIDILITIND1294.55-1.16130906/08/2019Exit trade1300-1.08
SBILIFE801.85-0.1478706/08/2019Hold long positions7701.86
TATAGLOBAL254.45-2.0427106/08/2019Exit trade255-5.95
TVSMOTOR373.65-0.0840311/09/2019Hold long positions350-7.27

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.25% in negative at 10705
- AD was 4:13

- next support 10600 and then 10500
- this is another congestion area

September 18, 2019

Trending stocks

LAST updated: 18-SEP-2019 
DABUR
DABUR chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 10840
- AD was flat

- VIX down 5%
- option writers expect 10800 to hold

ITC generated 23% CAGR since 1975

Image


Some Daytraders making money consistently


September 17, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2.5% in negative at 10818
- AD was 5:13

- VIX up 7%
- today's fall gets the H&S rejected

- only 45 stocks made new 52 lows - this is good sign

- note we are still trading within AUG high low range

Our PM is unlucky twice

RBI governor "surprised" by bad GDP figures

September 16, 2019

The few immutable truths of finance – the stuff no one argues about by Morgan Housel

The few immutable truths of finance – the stuff no one argues about because there are right answers – are what matter most. But we hear about them the least, specifically because no one argues about them.

Spend most of your time contextualizing those truths within your own goals, needs and experiences, realizing that it’s OK if others disagree with your views and you disagree with theirs.

When you watch, listen, and read about other people’s views, the most important takeaways are insights into how people deal with risk and uncertainty, because those are the broad lessons that are likely to apply to the greatest number of people, including yourself.

Learning from others is a huge part of investing – every mistake has already been made and you can add years to your life learning from them vicariously. But most investment debates can and should be replaced by acknowledging that reasonable people can disagree because we’re all different and driven by things that are hard to quantify. The fun part of behavioral finance is learning about how flawed other people can be. The hard part is trying to figure out how flawed you are, and what makes sense to you but would seem crazy to others.

Read more at https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/immutable-truths-and-arguing-fools/

Was the Saudi Arabia drone attack a black swan event?

The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild. Read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:


  • The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  • The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  • The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

The 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack was a drone attack that targeted the Saudi Aramco oil production facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia on 14 September 2019.

The attack caused large fires at the factories which, according to the Saudi Arabian interior ministry, were put out several hours later. Both facilities, however, were shut down until repairs were made, cutting Saudi Arabia's oil production by about half – representing about 5% of global oil production – and causing some destabilization of global financial markets.

Read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais_attack

According to me, this is a black swan event:

  • The event was unpredictable (to the observer)
  • The event has widespread ramifications
  • After the event has occurred, people will assert that it was indeed explainable and predictable


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% down at 11003
- we had a gap down opening followed by flat closing
- inside bar formed

- AD was 5:4 ... this is very good

September 15, 2019

Improve sentiments

September 14, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- markets doing timepass for past few weeks
- sustaining above 11200 can be bullish

- next support 10500-10000



BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- bullish above 28500
- all activity happening within AUG high low range

September 13, 2019

Some buy signals

Stocks at 52 week high

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.85% in positive at 11076
- AD was almost 2:1
- VIX down 7%

- inverted H&S in making
- confirmation will be breakout above 11200

September 12, 2019

Stocks to watch

LAST updated: 12-SEP-2019 
HEG
HEG chart

"Math Didn't Help Einstein Discover Gravity": Piyush Goyal On Economy

Days after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman attributed the slowdown in the auto sector to millennials using Ola and Uber, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said that we should not be concerned with GDP maths, since “maths never helped Einstein discover gravity”.

“Don’t go by all these calculations you see on TV, that if the country has to become a $5 trillion economy, it will have to grow at 12% but right now it is currently growing at 6-7%,” Mr. Goyal said. “Don’t get into those maths. Those maths have never helped Einstein discover gravity.”

Read more at https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/maths-never-helped-einstein-discover-gravity-piyush-goyal/article29399249.ece









Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in negative at 10981
- AD was 5:4... good sign
- stocks at 52 week high/ low indicates no alarm

- possible inverted H&S seen with neckline around 11200
- confirmation will be crossover above 11200
- till then it has no meaning

A Millennial’s (Guilt-Ridden) Response to Nirmala Sitharaman

It has come to my attention that you hold the generation of millennials, of which I am part, responsible for the decline in the auto sector. 

You said, “Some studies do tell us that the mindset of millennials, who are now preferring not to commit an EMI for buying an automobile, instead prefer to take Ola, Uber, everything else, or take the metro.”

Mea culpa. I agree with your description of our mindset – I have no intention of buying a car. But that is because I simply can’t afford it. As you say, I’m disinclined to commit to an EMI – perhaps a sign of the commitment phobia my generation has also been accused of, given that we now also marry less, don’t buy homes, and aren’t having children.

What do we like? Netflix, waffling on the internet, and we seem to be absolutely bonkers about make-up. But when we’re swapping swatches, you, as someone who is far more sΓ©rieux and important, would probably be more concerned with the lipstick index, the fun little economic theory which suggests that people buy more lipstick when the market is tanking.

What’s your favourite shade, Ms. Sitharaman?

Currently, the lipstick index shows an economy in the red.

You see, I am not alone, Ms. Sitharaman –

Read more at https://thewire.in/economy/a-millennials-guilt-ridden-response-to-nirmala-sitharaman

Why is BHEL at 15 year low?

Image

September 11, 2019

Twitter to FM: Why Are Truck Sales Down if Millennials Prefer Ola?













Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11036
- AD was 2:1

- small trading range

Engineers as delivery boys




September 10, 2019

Why business is suffering.... need a new FM

Why are people not using Ola/ Uber which is blamed by FM for slowdown on Indian auto industry

Indian economy problems solved by FM... need a new FM



NOTE: Ola/ Uber have been there for many ears and there was no problem. Next, the FM will blame real estate slowdown because people want to rent and not buy.

Best solution: new FM required who understands what is happening.

Hint: we need new roads but govt has no money for this. So how do you resolve this?

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/nirmala-sitharaman-says-indias-auto-slowdown-due-to-change-in-peoples-mindset

YESBANK ... diamonds are forever.. sorry not forever



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