May 26, 2019

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support - gap around 30000
- resistance 32000

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- selling seen around 12000 levels
- support 11000-11500

Google trends was right about BJP winning

May 24, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today market closed 1.6% in positive at 11844
- AD was 4:1

- VIX down 15%

- out of station till 28th MAY... not trading at all

May 23, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty opened with a  big gapup and closed deep in the red
- however lose was above 11600
- close was at 11657 (0.7% negative)
- AD was flat

- VIX down 30%.. options at more sensible pricing

- now election tamasha is over
- BJP is in majority again for 5 years
- so no uncertainty on political front

- today's "official" result was the trigger for "sell on good news"



May 22, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11738
- AD was 5:4

- option writing support 11000-11500 resistance 12000


May 21, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1% in negative at 11709
- AD was 1:2

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

- exit polls giving BJP a v good majority is already factored by markets
- so what other good news is left?
- what if exit polls are way off the mark?

- on vacation till 27th MAY

May 20, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- nifty closed 3.7% in positive at 11828
- AD was 5:1

-  move in 2 days is probably the fastest in last 2-3 year.

- immediate support 11500
- close below 11500 this week will lead to whipsaw

- option writing  resistance 12000

- travelling till next Wednesday so updates can be sporadic.




You have been warned in advance

May 19, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000 resistance 12000

- Friday's strong bounce has come from oversold region
- do not read too much into the rally


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- index has bounced off from oversold region
- support 28400 res 30500


May 18, 2019

Don't come back to work on Sunday - Wallstreet quote




May 17, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 1.3% in positive at 11407
- AD was 5:4

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

- buy signal on 30 min/ 60 min charts

- taking a break from trading next week
- options are extremely expensive and volatility can wreak havoc in trades

How a renowned researcher beat the odds, stumped casino owners around the world, and walked away with a fortune.

On a warm night in May of 1969, a throng of awestruck gamblers crowded around a well-worn roulette table in the Italian Riviera.

At the center stood a gangly 38-year-old medical professor in a rumpled suit. He’d just placed a $100,000 bet ($715,000 in 2019 dollars) on a single spin of the wheel. As the croupier unleashed the little white ball, the room went silent. He couldn’t possibly be this lucky… could he?

But Dr. Richard Jarecki wasn’t leaving it up to chance. He’d spent thousands of hours devising an ingenious method of winning — and it would soon net him the modern equivalent of more than $8,000,000.

Read more at https://thehustle.co/professor-who-beat-roulette/

Nifty can slip up to 15% if Narendra Modi-led NDA fails to form govt: UBS

A recent report co-authored by Gautam Chhaochharia, the UBS head of India research, along with Dipojjal Saha and Rohit Arora, expects the Nifty to slip 10-15 per cent if the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fails to form the government at the Centre. The projection is based on sharp reactions witnessed in 2004 and 2009 after general election outcomes.

UBS expects the Nifty to move up 5-10 per cent, crossing their upside (and recent peak) scenario of 11,800 in case the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gets a single-party majority. On the other hand, a BJP-led NDA win (over 250 seats) could see the Nifty move up by 5 per cent to touch its recent peak, the report says. In case BJP-led NDA wins less than 250 seats, UBS expects the markets to remain volatile in the near-term and wait for the government formation before making a directional call.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/elections/nifty-can-slip-up-to-15-if-narendra-modi-led-nda-fails-to-form-govt-ubs-119051600494_1.html

Nice post on demonetisation, GST and Rera

By Arvind Modi

Does everyone feel that Modi broke the backbone of the Indian economy by introducing demonetization, GST, and RERA?

I am an IT Project manager who quit a full time job to pursue my dreams as an entrepreneur. 90 out of 100 times I use auto correct to fix the spelling of entrepreneur when I write. Until 2.5 years ago, I had an abnormal IT job for 10 years that never had a start time or end time and then I decided I am old enough to spread my wings and fly off to pursue my dreams considering the fact that I am already used to work for odd hours. So I did!

In 2.5 years, I had a lot of learning, a lot of departments of a company that I would never have tapped are now being managed by me. One of which is ‘purchasing’. And this is where my opinion on demonetization and GST comes from.

Until demonetization a lot of our purchases were paid through cash and never had an invoice. Our choices were limited, most of the suppliers were unregistered large volume suppliers who used every loop hole in the law, bribed officers and have been doing large volume business (in crores) without a single tax ID.

Then, Demonetization happened. The first impact was on these suppliers. It was practically impossible for us to get new currency and pay them. This is when we started scouting for suppliers who would take online payment. Now most of these suppliers have tight knit families so with the 2.5 lakh limit and 20 people in the family, it was easy for them to ask us to transfer to one of the 20 bank accounts they gave us. They were pretty smart they thought! So for the next few months after demonetization, whenever we had an order to place we would get a new account number to make a payment to.

At this stage, our suppliers list has shrunken down by 50% already.

Now eventually came GST. GST is a game changer for every business man. The VAT system was pretty simple, almost every sale we had was either 5% or 14.5% taxable. Being an online business, our data was always ready and it took us less time to report our taxes and pay them. But I knew a lot of them misused this reporting by submitting false purchases and lesser sales (for online business every single payment is to the bank account so we can not float these values).

May 16, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in positive at 11257
- AD was flat

- last 4 days, nifty is trading between 11100 and 11300
- alternate day up down movement

- option writing support 11000 res 12000

May 15, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11157
- AD was 7:11 (not bad)

- expecting good support around 11000

WhatsApp’s End-to-End Encryption Is a Gimmick

The discovery that hackers could snoop on WhatsApp should alert users of supposedly secure messaging apps to an uncomfortable truth: “End-to-end encryption” sounds nice — but if anyone can get into your phone’s operating system, they will be able to read your messages without having to decrypt them.

According to a report in the Financial Times on Tuesday, the spyware that exploited the vulnerability was Pegasus, made by the Israeli company NSO. The malware could access a phone’s camera and microphone, open messages, capture what appears on a user’s screen, and log keystrokes — rendering encryption pointless. It works on all operating systems, including Apple’s iOS, Google’s Android, and Microsoft’s rarely used mobile version of Windows.

Hackers can install the malware simply by calling the target.

It’s important to realize, however, that spyware that can install itself without any action on the user’s part can arrive through any channel, be it an encrypted messenger, a browser, an email or SMS client with an undiscovered vulnerability allowing such an attack.

These are merely applications running on top of an operating system, and once a piece of malware gets into the latter it can control the device in a multitude of ways. With a keylogger, a hacker can see only one side of a conversation. Add the ability to capture a user’s screen, and they can see the full discussion regardless of what security precautions are built into the app you are using.

“End-to-end encryption” is a marketing device used by companies such as Facebook to lull consumers wary about cyber-surveillance into a false sense of security. Encryption is, of course, necessary, but it's not a fail-safe way to secure communication.

Read more at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-14/whatsapp-hack-shows-end-to-end-encryption-is-pointless

May 14, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11222
- AD was flat

- support 11000

S&P 500 did not have a bullish engulfing bar

My mistake... it was just a big candlestick.

For a bullish engulfing bar, we should have a gap down opening and close above prev day's high. This was not the case.

May 13, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in negative at 11148
- AD was 1:5

- large sell off in other indices seen
- very good support around 11000 levels

Signs of desperation @iam_anandv




Did not know clouds can block radar - hilarious

Twitterati are having a blast over this video....



Interesting

The holy cow becomes the holy terror

In world's fastest growing economy, Indians cutting down on toothpastes and soap

May 12, 2019

When lack of education is an asset (#Marathi, #Music, #Sairaat) @ap_pune

CNX 500 hourly chart

- trend is down
- index closed at support
- bullish above 9350


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down on daily charts
- this fall looks like a correction to the prev rally from 26500
- very good support around 28400

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000
- resistance 11800

May 11, 2019

Bottom may be closer than you think @ap_pune




Bullish engulfing bar in S&P500

It was one big volatile day in US markets. The S&P 500 was down 1.5% and then recovered smart and closed 0.4% in positive.

The bounce has come from a very important support and has also filled the gap in April.

So correction over?

Here is the chart:

May 10, 2019

NSSO bomb shatters the calm on GDP front, new series data now under darker cloud

Sab Golmaal Hai

In what has suddenly lent a new seriousness to the bickering over contested GDP data, the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) has found that 36 per cent of the companies taken into account for the new GDP calculation are either untraceable or had been categorised wrongly.

There is a high probability that India's growth figures will decline if these "ghost" companies are removed from the data.

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/nsso-bomb-shatters-the-calm-on-gdp-front-new-series-data-now-under-darker-cloud/articleshow/69231296.cms

Clarification at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/extent-of-overestimation-of-gdp-in-all-likelihood-marginalsays-finance-ministry-amid-nsso-report-controversy/articleshow/69271927.cms

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11279
- AD was flat

- support 11000 resistance 11800

Is India in the midst of a "middle income trap"?

"We are heading for a structural slowdown. This is an early warning. The economy since 1991 has been growing not on the basis of exports... but on the basis of what the top 100 million of the Indian population wants to consume," he said.

Those 100 million or 10 crore Indian consumers who were "powering" India's growth story, he said, have started to plateau out.

"It means in short we will not be South Korea. We will not be China. We will be Brazil. We will be South Africa. We will be a middle-income country with large numbers of people in poverty seeing rising crimes. In the history of the world. Countries have avoided the middle income trap but no country once in it, has been able to get out of this," he said.

This phenomenon is known by economists as a middle-income trap.

Read more at https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rathin-roy-crisis-shadow-on-indias-economy-predicts-member-of-pm-narendra-modis-think-tank-2034948

India's official GDP data a joke?

May 9, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.5% in negative at 11301
- AD was 7:10 (not bad)

- support 11000 resistance 11800

Attention Salaried people




May 8, 2019

A businessman who loses his own money is better than the person who loses someone else's money

Awesome words from N N Taleb




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down o  daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in negative at 11359
- AD was 4:13

- significant top around 11800
- minor swing low at 11300
- next good support 11000

May 7, 2019

Lot of stocks breaking supports

ADANIENT
ADANIENT chart

Market outlook - trend reversal?

Daily charts:
- trend is down from today (11500)
- it was up from DEC last year (10800)

- trend will reverse on close above 11800
- this looks like a top this year

- very important support 11000

- AD figures look funny... 26:3... something wrong

India's consumption story... going down down and down

FMCG growth slowdown in March quarter isn’t a temporary blip

India’s famous consumption story is going awry. At least that’s what March quarter results of some large fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies show. Volume growth numbers fell substantially for these companies, with Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) reporting a mere 1% growth in the domestic branded business volumes. A bigger worry was the low-spirited management commentary, which suggests that the worst is far from over.

“When a generally measured management like Hindustan Unilever’s uses the term ‘recession’ in its comments in the post-results presser, it generally isn’t a one-quarter blip," pointed out analysts from Kotak Institutional Equities in a report on 4 May. On Friday, HUL’s management had said, “While FMCG is recession resistant, it is not recession proof."

Management commentary from GCPL and Dabur India Ltd wasn’t inspiring either. These two companies harped ...

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/fmcg-growth-slowdown-in-march-quarter-isn-t-a-temporary-blip-1557170188356.html

May 6, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1% in negative at 11598
- despite gap down opening, there was no selloff afterwards
- AD was 1:2 (not bad)

- VIX up 10% making options very expensive

- swing low 11500

- 11800 has become an important top for the market

May 5, 2019

Kirubakaran Rajendran: An options trader who chose the automation route to success @kirubaakaran

Kirubakaran Rajendran........What I found out was that in most cases, Bank Nifty does not move beyond 1 percent from their open. The data corroborated with the conventional wisdom that says that the market stays in a range 70 percent of the time. Using this information as the basis I designed my options strategy around it.


I also found out that I will make money by selling call and put options if I select strike prices beyond these one percent range. However, there was a problem. If the Bank Nifty goes in one direction and beyond the range, the strategy would lose 2-3 months of profit in one day.

I looked for other data points to protect myself. I looked at open interest data to see where there is a position build-up and sell my options around them.

In this strategy, which I currently trade, I have three stop losses conditions which take me out of the trade if I lose around 1.5 percent of the capital. Using these stop losses, the strategy is now posting around 30-35 percent annualized return. Drawdown has never extended beyond 15 percent. Irrespective of the volatility level, the strategy has made money.

The period when this strategy is making losses is when there is a volatility shift from a low volatility phase to high volatility.

I start off the week with strangles but as the week progresses I take short straddle trades

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/kirubakaran-rajendran-an-options-trader-who-chose-the-automation-route-to-success-3930931.html

CNX Midcap technicals

- nifty is near all time highs but
- the midcap index is still a distance away and is now looking weak

Reversal in CNX IT?

- support 15200
- resistance 16800

- fast move happening in opposite direction

Interesting


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 29000
- resistance 30500

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11500 - 11000




NSE considers caps on Nifty's sector weights; move may hit financial stocks

May 3, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11712
- AD was 7:12

- weekly option series suggests rangebound trading coming week

May 2, 2019

Useful and overlooked skills




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets close flat at 11724
- AD was 7:10

- swing low 11500
- close below 11500 will confirm trend reversal

- NIFTY PE ratio 29+ .. difficult for long term investors to make money at this point

NIFTY @ 12000?




April 30, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11748
- AD was 5:14

- broader market was weak

YESBANK reverses from previous support area

April 27, 2019

CNX IT at all time high


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 29000
- rangebound this month



NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- some consolidation seen around current levels
- support 11000

April 26, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 11755
- AD was 7:10

If you believe Google trends, this election is a runaway win for Modi

....Yes, all this while people were calculating and guessing about results of Hindi heartland states, Google knew. In its infinite wisdom, Google knew what was going to happen. The writing was on the wall.

As with the rest of the world, India is slowly waking up to the power of big data. Think about it. If you knew what every person in the country was thinking, you would know who is winning the election. And today that “every” person has a smartphone and access to the internet, Google knows what people are interested in.

Now let us see what Google trends says about the last 3 months (BJP vs Congress)

Read more at https://dynastycrooks.wordpress.com/2019/04/23/if-you-believe-google-trends-this-election-is-a-runaway-win-for-modi

Will be interesting to see what happens.... will it be a clean sweep for BJP as the charts indicate?

BANKNIFTY bar by bar commentary for learning by @PAVLeader




Weird policy from exchanges

From tradingview site:

April 25, 2019

Advice from a professional option writer to newbies




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 11642
- AD was 4:5 - not bad
- stiff resistance around 11800 levels

- small caps and mid caps witnessed lesser selling as compared to index

- surprised to see close below 11700

Infidelity and stock market crashes - role of information asymmetry

Original source: unknown

Once upon a time there was a village in which there lived many married couples. There were certain qualities about this village, though, that made this village unique.

Whenever a man had an affair with another man’s wife, every woman in the village got to know about the affair, except his own wife. This happened because the woman who he had slept with talked about their affair with all the other women in the village, except his wife. Moreover, no one ever told his wife about the affair.


April 24, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1.3% in positive at 11726
- AD was 5:4

- we have a nice swing low around 11500 levels


April 23, 2019

BANKNIFTY looking weak

- this index gave the first breakout
- now looking weak
- it has actually closed below its recent swing low
- and this was a faster move
- however I will consider trend reversal below 29000

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.2% in negative at 11576
- AD was 7:11

- swing low 11500

- option writing support 11500 (minor) resistance 11700 (major)


Will oil trigger the next recession?




Government or state banks - who is to blame for India's slowdown?

India, the world's fastest growing large economy, is slowing: 

There has been a visible deceleration in activity in the past six months. It started with slowing sales of autos and some durable goods and has spread from there.

Airline traffic growth is down; companies are now saying sales of consumer staples such as soaps and detergents have begun to weaken, too. Even as the hunt for reasons for the slowdown begins, the main culprit appears to be a familiar one: the still largely government-owned financial system.

The issue is that there isn’t enough money in the economy. For much of the past two years, distributors and retailers of consumer products have been warning of a growing lack of liquidity. At first, policymakers largely dismissed their concerns. The government's late 2016 decision to withdraw most currency from circulation temporarily, and the introduction the following year of a nationwide goods-and-services tax, made it hard to decipher signals on economic momentum.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/government-or-state-banks-who-is-to-blame-for-india-s-slowdown-119042200067_1.html

April 22, 2019

NIFTY options max pain around 11700

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.35% in negative at 11594
- AD was 1:3

- close below 11500 will confirm trend reversal

- Last week's dark cloud cover shows its magic today

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

Randomness rules

Comedian Zelensky with no political experience wins Ukraine presidency


A comedian with no political experience won a landslide victory in Ukraine's presidential election Sunday, exit polls showed, dealing a stunning rebuke to the country's political establishment. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose only previous political role was playing the president on television, trounced incumbent Petro Poroshenko by taking 73 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls conducted by several think tanks.Poroshenko lost to the television star across all regions of the country, including in the west where he traditionally enjoyed strong support.

It was an extraordinary outcome to a campaign that started as a joke but struck a chord with voters frustrated by poverty, corruption and a five-year war that has claimed some 13,000 lives.

Read more at https://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-comedian-zelensky-with-no-political-experience-wins-ukraine-presidency-2741953

Be your own boss

April 20, 2019

Hacking Democracy: How Stolen Aadhaar Data Of Nearly 10 Cr Voters Was Used To Delete People From Electoral Rolls

“They used it to do some profiling of voters. They were seeding it with Aadhaar linked information to profile voter data,” he said. “After that, you draw up a list, showing how likely a candidate is to vote for you. To do this, we think they were using an IVRS [automated voice calling — one of the many digital services political parties now rely on] to reach out to all the potential voters.”

“They would ask questions about whom you will support, and based on your rating, assign a score. They repeated this process to work out a list of people who weren’t supporting them, and then they filed Form 7 requests about these people, to have them removed. It’s a very complex scheme.”

Form 7 is an objection to a name being included in the voter list — it can be filed by anyone about anyone else. Once filed, the EC physically verifies whether the person has shifted, or is deceased, or is a duplicate, and if that is the case, removes the name.

But thousands of people in both states, as well as in the rest of the country, have been taking to social media to talk about how they’ve been robbed of their votes. In fact, cricketer Rahul Dravid, who was one of the people in the EC’s ads to exhort people to vote, found his name missing as well.

Read more at https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/hacking-democracy-stolen-aadhaar-voter-deletion_in_5cb9afa2e4b068d795cb870c

People really do quit because of their bosses, or sometimes follow them

When Harish Banker quit his bank to join another financial services firm, six of his reporting team members also resigned from the company to join him.

This was a big blow to the firm which was already facing high rates of attrition. While the human resources team tried to retain the staff members by offering higher pay, none of them relented.

Their argument was that Banker was their mentor when they joined the team and they were only repaying the loyalty to the individual.

In HR parlance, a phrase that is often repeated is that people leave managers and not companies. While not everyone may agree, it is a fact that a company’s brand ambassador for a new joinee is often the manager s/he reports to.

You don’t need a boss like Miranda Priestly from The Devil Wears Prada to leave a job. They could, in fact, be an immense influencer in employee career decisions. So much so that employees quit en masse to follow their reporting manager. Especially if the employee has been hired by this person.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/people-really-do-quit-because-of-their-bosses-or-sometimes-follow-them-3857731.html

April 19, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- this week, nifty closed 0.9% in positive
- small signs of selling visible at higher levels

- support 11000

Something funny with NSE advance decline stats


NIFTY and RELIANCE

Yesterday RELIANCE was up 3% while NIFTY closed 0.3% in negative.

What if Reliance closed flat? Then nifty would have closed another 60 points in the negative.

This is because Reliance has got almost 10% weight in the index.

Check this out at https://www.equitymaster.com/india-markets/nse-replica.asp

April 18, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11753
- pattern formed - dark cloud cover

- gap present below prev day's bar
- markets fine as long as this holds

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

They took the data from your servers ... stop pretending







April 17, 2019

On quitting a job at 32

Question from Jaycobb
That was a pretty bold decision at a relatively young age of 32! If am allowed to ask
- Was it disillusionment with appraisal alone that made you take the decision to not work for someone or there were other motivations in play?
- Curious to know if you are able to sustain since then (20 years?) only with trading alone? That would be quite a successful jump into unknown if I may say!

Answer:
I was an MBA from a premier institute... after working for few years, I realised that my juniors and my seniors were all working just to impress their bosses who incidentally were also working for another boss. This never ended and was a chain.

People rate their work experience in terms of responsibility, designation, perks, salary etc... but at the end of the day, you are still working for someone else. There is no difference between a VP and the office security guy... everyone is working for money and trying to keep their seniors happy, get a raise, a promotion perhaps.

April 16, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11787
- AD was flat... why?

- nice swing low around 11500

Cloned fingerprints being used for Aadhaar authentication?




The unthinkable happens.... though it was only a matter of time




The secret ballot is no longer a secret




April 15, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11690
- AD was 10:7

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

Game over? Can't believe it happened so soon





Thoughts On The FMP Fiasco / Mutual Funds Sahi Nahi Hai

My view - a mutual fund may have risks clearly defined in its investment strategy but there is this bigger risk of the fund manager not following the rules. As always, the manager does not lose the job, the fund earns the fees and investors lose.

.........

Anyone who has been following the coverage of the crisis in the media (mainstream and social), would have noted that much of the attention has been on Kotak MF, and on the so-called “safety” of FMPs.  In this post, I’d like to move that spotlight a bit.  The way I see it, firstly, the risks in investing in FMPs are, more or less, the same as they have been over the last several years.  It’s just that many investors, advisors, and fund houses, have been in denial over the fact that portfolio concentration is a bigger risk than credit quality in itself.  While I’ve talked at length about this previously, in this post, I want to talk about the questionable choices made by fund houses this time around, once this risk became a likely reality.  Secondly, I feel that looking at the FMP fiasco from the lens of the decisions of HDFC MF (rather than Kotak MF) offers a better picture of what has happened.  Investors in Kotak FMPs may have been the first to be visibly impacted, but it was HDFC MF that was the first to make the choices that brought us to where we are.

Read more at http://mfcritic.blogspot.com/2019/04/thoughts-on-fmp-fiasco.html

April 14, 2019

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 29000

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000
- resistance 12000

April 12, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.4% in positive at 11643
- AD was 5:4

- option writing levels: 11000 - 11500 - 12000

Double Top Pattern – Backtest Rules & Results

The double top pattern is a chart formation consisting of two consecutive price peaks that leads to a bearish reversal.

For years, traders have claimed that the double top is a high probability short setup.

This is because a double top pattern signifies that bulls are having trouble pushing the price past the prior high.

However, there has been little statistical research done to prove whether or not this pattern has any predictive ability.

In this article, we come up with a definition for the double top, code it up and test the pattern on some historical data.

1. Define The Double Top Pattern
Before we go any further it’s important to think about what a double top actually is and how we can write it into code.

This always presents a problem with chart patterns because they only become clear after the pattern is completed.

For example, a double top pattern only looks like a double top after the stock hits a high then drops through the accompanying support area.

If the stock doesn’t drop fully, then it will look more like a wedge or a triangle pattern.

If the high doesn’t hold long enough then the double top pattern very quickly looks nothing like a double top at all and instead morphs into a typical breakout.

Because of this, it’s essential to come up with a mathematical formula to represent a double top.

Read more at https://jbmarwood.com/double-top-pattern/

The Growth Puzzle and was UPA 2 better than NDA 2?

April 11, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11597
- AD was flat

- this will be 2nd week of rangebound movement in market

- option writing support 11000-11500 resistance 12000

IBM's AI Knows When People Will Quit Their Job With 95% Accuracy

One reason I quit working at the age of 32 was the realisation that all performance appraisals are a complete sham. This does not matter whether you are working in a traditional company or a multinational etc etc.

Your rating (excellent, outstanding) all depends on whether your boss likes you or not. If he does not, then whatever work you have put in has no value.

To this, you can also add a generous dose of  office politics!

Remember, people never quit companies ... they quit only because of bad managers.

.......
"We found manager surveys were not accurate," said Rometty. "Managers are subjective in ratings. We can infer and be more accurate from data."

Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-09/ibms-ai-knows-when-people-will-quit-their-job-95-accuracy


Meet Katie Bouman, the woman who transformed our view of black holes forever

It's been a huge day for science. And an even bigger day for female scientists.

On Wednesday, we Earthlings got our first direct look at a black hole, thanks to the Event Horizon Telescope, an array of eight radio telescopes around the world working together to create the image. But in the midst of making jokes about how that photo kinda sorta looks the eye of Sauron and wondering how this newfound information could impact Albert Einstein's theories of gravity, social media focused on making sure one of the women behind the project gets credit for her contributions.

Katie Bouman, an MIT grad, helped develop a computer program while still in school. Along with others, it helped create the image of the black hole. She also led testing to verify the images.




Read more at https://www.cnet.com/news/meet-katie-bouman-the-woman-who-transformed-our-view-of-black-holes-forever/ and https://onezero.medium.com/scientists-release-the-first-image-of-a-massive-black-hole-a61913e55451


April 10, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 11585
- AD was flat at 4:5

- past few days movement hints at time correction

- VIX at 21... very high... this makes options very expensive

India in transition mode

While we were not looking, India won some battles

So how long does it take you to get a Wi-fi connection? How long does it take you to open a bank account? At least in the big metros, a Wi-fi connection happens within a day. Opening a bank account takes lesser time. The average time for these services in most developed countries is much longer. In most of Europe, for instance, it takes at least a month to get both these services. I have not heard of a faster initiation to completion time taken anywhere in the world than in India. Click on “buy" at 11pm and hear the door bell ring at 9am the next morning. That’s home delivery of stuff for you in big-city India. Want to return? Tap, tap, tap. They pick it up in the next few hours. Food delivery is transformed.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/opinion-while-we-were-not-looking-india-won-some-battles-1554796447382.html

April 8, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.5% in negative at 11604
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

April 7, 2019

BANKNIFTY charts

- trend is up
- swing low 29000
- next support 27500

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week nifty closed flat
- a doji was formed
- double top near 11800 levels

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000