May 31, 2020

NIFTY monthly charts

- trend is down
- this month, nifty closed flat and has formed a doji
- all activity was within body of prev month bar

- resistance 10000


NIFTY weekly charts

- this week, nifty closed 7% in positive
- this is 2nd time, nifty has managed a close above 9500
- the first time it happened, nifty sold off the next week
- stiff resistance around 10000


BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- resistance 20000 support 16000
- this week closing was above prev week high


May 29, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- markets are rangebound
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 9580
- AD was 2:1

- discount on nifty futures increased to 100 points at close
- this is something I have seen after a very long time
- a high discount means long positions in stocks are hedged with short position in futures
- low chance of markets falling from here... just a guess

Option range based on VIX

NIFTY close9580Date29-May-2020
VIX30.00%
LevelsStrike priceSignificance
Month Hi10,41010,500Resistance
Week Hi9,97910,000Resistance
Day Hi9,7309,800Resistance
Day Lo9,4309,400Support
Week Lo9,1819,100Support
Month Lo8,7508,700Support
Levels are for day/ week/ month starting tomorrow
Strike price is arrived after rounding up/ down of levels
Range expansion if VIX explodes
For educational purposes only. Not for trading
Updated daily at vfmdirect.in

May 28, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is sideways
- both long and short signals have failed
- this is normal after a huge move

- today market closed 2% in positive at 9490
- AD was 2:1

- my rules for any indicator based trade /market are simple
- trade the signal but keep SL around  or 5 bar low (for a long signal and vice versa)
- this keeps losses small and at same time helps ride the range.
- above works for any timeframe say 5 min, 15 min or daily or weekly charts etc

May 27, 2020

Market outlook + options range

Daily charts:
- market is rangebound on daily charts
- till yesterday, I mentioned the trend as down
- with today's move, the SL of 9300 is gone
- you are of course, free to consider any other appropriate SL
- for eg, another good SL could be 9500

- today markets closed 3% in positive at 9315
- AD was 3:2

- on weekly charts, a higher high higher low is already forming
- above view is valid till weekly low does not break (8800)


kplswing signal


Options range

NIFTY close9315Date27-May-2020
VIX31.00%
LevelsStrike priceSignificance
Month Hi10,14910,100Resistance
Week Hi9,7159,700Resistance
Day Hi9,4669,500Resistance
Day Lo9,1649,200Support
Week Lo8,9158,900Support
Month Lo8,4818,500Support
Levels are for day/ week/ month starting tomorrow
Strike price is arrived after rounding up/ down of levels
Range expansion if VIX explodes
For educational purposes only. Not for trading
Updated daily at vfmdirect.in

Stock signals

ACC
ACC chart

New to the markets?

May 26, 2020

NIFTY options trading range


NIFTY close9029Date26-May-2020
VIX31.00%
LevelsStrike priceSignificance
Month Hi9,8379,800Resistance
Week Hi9,4179,400Resistance
Day Hi9,1769,200Resistance
Day Lo8,8828,900Support
Week Lo8,6418,600Support
Month Lo8,2218,200Support
Levels are for day/ week/ month starting tomorrow
Strike price is arrived after rounding up/ down of levels
Range expansion if VIX explodes
For educational purposes only. Not for trading
Updated daily at vfmdirect.in

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 9029
- AD was flat

- see big red of 18-MAY
- nifty trading within that range for 5th consecutive day
- despite such narrow range, there have been very good intraday opportunities

- note that almost every gapup this month is being sold into
- this provides good ideas for short trades intraday

- trading above 9180-9200 spot will be bullish
- deep support 8500

Emotional discipline

Image

May 23, 2020

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- support developing around 8800
- big resistance 10000

BANKNIFTY technicals

- pretty obvious that trend is still down
- below 16000, expect more downside
- resistance 19000-20000

The one lot options trader

Sometime in the 1980s-90s

Did you take a lot of ribbing?

Oh, did I! They called me “one-lot” for the longest time. The individual who gave me the hardest time was the best trader in the crowd. He had made millions and was virtually a legend in his own time. He started leaning on me and ribbing me right from the beginning. He made my life miserable.

Did your ego get dented by these really successful traders railing you?

Oh, yes. And, it went on for almost a year, day in, day out.

W`re you tempted to pick up your trading a little bit?

I did, but not for that reason. My backer, who had given me such a hard time when I was down, was the prod. Although he didn’t know that much about trading, he did give me one piece of very useful advice. Once I started turning it around, he told me to increase my size. He said, “Tony, a banker makes his first loan and he is very careful, but as he gets more comfortable, he makes his loans bigger. You need to increase your size.”

How did the harassment you were taking on the floor finally end?

Read more at https://plewall.com/2018/05/07/tony-saliba-one-lot-triumphs-1/

May 22, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 9040
- AD was 2:3

- detailed OI levels in separate post

NIFTY VIX analysis


NIFTY close9040Date22-May-2020
VIX32.00%
LevelsStrike priceSignificance
Month Hi9,8759,900Resistance
Week Hi9,4419,400Resistance
Day Hi9,1919,200Resistance
Day Lo8,8898,900Support
Week Lo8,6398,600Support
Month Lo8,2058,200Support
Levels are for day/ week/ month starting tomorrow
Strike price is arrived after rounding up/ down of levels
Range expansion if VIX explodes
For educational purposes only. Not for trading
Updated daily at vfmdirect.in

A ferocious bull market awaits, market leadership to see major shift: Ridham Desai

Ridham Desai, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley India, pointed out that COVID-19 has evinced a very strong fiscal and monetary response the world over and it is quite unprecedented as the world has never seen such a response.

"Even during World War II and in the aftermath of it, we did not see coordinated policy response either across geographies or across agencies. It is multiple times more than the stimulus that was put after the global financial crisis of 2008-09. When we come out of this, all the stimulus waiting to kick in, it is going to create a ferocious bull market around the world," Desai said.

"An unprecedented stimulus has been put in place that is waiting to find its way into the market as well as the economy once the confidence returns. What is required is essentially some comfort that the worst of COVID-19 is over, or more appropriately, we have a vaccine or a cure. So, when the world starts sensing that we have the cure, I think money is going to move into the asset markets," Desai added.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/a-ferocious-bull-market-awaits-market-leadership-to-see-major-shift-ridham-desai-5299181.html

Back to the License Raj of the 1970s?

Options trading range


NIFTY close9106
VIX33.00%
Data as of21-May-2020
Month Hi10,000
Week Hi9,600
Day Hi9,300
Day Lo8,900
Week Lo8,600
Month Lo8,200
Levels are for day/ week/ month starting today
Range expansion 
if VIX explodes
For educational purposes only. Not for trading
Updated daily at vfmdirect.in

May 21, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 9106
- AD was 3:2

- VIX down 8% at 33

- today ITC was up 7%... this stock is an index heavy weight
- few days ago, BHARTI was up 11%
- index management?

May 20, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 2% in positive at 9066
- AD was 2:1

- VIX down 11% at 36
- last 2-3 days VIX is stable to negative / no fear
- above has bullish implications

- my SL for short is 9500
- which I will bring down to 9300

May 19, 2020

NIFTY options open interest distribution (weekly expiry)

Option Chain Intraday Trading Strategy by @nitinbhatia121

Option Chain Intraday Trading Strategy is based on very simple logic and rational. The key two key rules of the option chain analysis are used in this strategy

1. The option writers prefer to SELL or Write or Short the ATM (At The Money) or near ATM options contract for maximum profit. Whereas, the option buyer will prefer to buy a far OTM (Out of Money) option contracts. For example, if the market is trading near 9500 then i will prefer to write 9500 CE or 9000 PE if my view is bearish on the market.

2. If a trader or investor's view is bearish on the market then he or she can either write a call or buy put. Similarly, if the view is bullish then either i can write a put or buy the call options contract.

Now as a trader, I will check the data of Most active Calls and Most active Puts on the NSE website ..........

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in positive at 8880
- AD was 4:5

- today BHARTIATRL was up 11%
- if this stock was flat, nifty would have been down by 80 points
- source: nifty replica at equitymaster

May 18, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- nifty gives a sell signal today
- the buy signal generated on 9-APR at 9112 gets closed as swing low of 9000 is violated on closing basis
- the kplswing signal generated on 29-APR at 9553 gives a whipsaw as SL hit today
- it was expected and indicated that buy signal will fail and that is what has happened

- this sell signal can get whipsawed if today's losses are completely recovered in next 1-2 days

- markets closed 3.4% in negative at 8823
- AD was 2:7

- next supports 8500-8000-7500
- resistance 9500-10000

May 16, 2020

How the 2008 correction looked like

- this is for perspective
- the correction initially was extremely fast / violent ..just like this time
- this was followed by rangebound trading for several weeks
- the JAN low broke in June and the correction resumed again
- markets lost another 40-50% from JAN lows



Second half of the correction..

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- this is 2nd week of lower high lower low
- support 9000 resistance 9500
- weekly expiry shows limited upside / resistance 9500
- monthly expiry shows limited downside/ support 9000

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- new/ intermediate swing high at 20000
- support 16000

May 15, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 9137
- AD was flat

20 L accounting jugglery?









S&P 500 charts

- for all the bad news in the world, the index did not break the lows of 23 MAR.
- ditto for Nifty
- both indices had a spectacular "relief rally" and are now consolidating
- S&P support around 2800... if this breaks, expect fall to get worse
- equiv level for India is 9000



May 14, 2020

NIFTY options open interest 21MAY expiry

- resistance at 9500... nothing new
- OI increasing at 9200 CE

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2.6% in negative at 9143
- AD was 7:10

- markets doing timepass this whole month so far
- range is from 9000 to 9500

- SL for long position is 9000 (indicative)

May 13, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2% in positive at 9383
- AD was 3:1

- we had a big gapup opening because of an overnight event
- this strong gapup opening was sold into
- reason is markets were in the 9500 region which is  a strong resistance zone
- notice that in MAY, every gapup opening has been sold into
- no genius or intelligence required

NIFTY not so nifty NIFTY

Cycling is bad for the economy (walking is worse)

Image

May 12, 2020

Short trade in RELIANCE near ATH

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in negative at 9196
- AD was 7:11

- support forming around 9000
- nice resistance around 9500

Note on trading:
- irrespective of what trading system or timeframe you follow
- just remember that half the signals will fail
- so you must have a rule for exiting profitable positions
- and an exit system for loss making trades
- position sizing will take of the risks

I may use 20 bar swing, hourly cross over or whatever system... my exit is invariably based on 3 or 5 bar swing.


RELIANCE Rights Issue Adjustment Calculation

Adaptation

May 11, 2020

BANKNIFTY closes at month's low

RELIANCE retesting all time highs


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed marginally in red at 9239
- AD was flat

- nifty rangbound this month
- unable to sustain above 9400
- below 9000, there can be lot of selling

May 9, 2020

To stop SIPs or not






BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is down

- like nifty, this index formed swing high around 22000
- below 18900, next support 16000

- ATR is 12% or 2300 points

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down on daily charts
- we had 4 consecutive weeks of higher high and higher low
- last week's bar was 8%
- this week opening was 4% down

- this week ended with 6% in negative
- lower high lower low formed

- very strong swing high formed around 9900-10000
- we have support around 9000
- this also happens to be 2015 and 2016 swing high
- once this breaks, new lows possible

May 8, 2020

Dismantling labour laws is a step in the right direction









Read more at https://twitter.com/srajagopalan/status/1258604944082579465

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in positive at 9251
- AD was 4:5

- VIX down 3% to 38

- option writing support 9000
- very strong resistance around 10000 levels



5 min charts:



15 min charts:

3 black crows and 3 white soldiers

May 7, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 9200
- AD was flat

- rising wedge broken on down side
- nothing happened since then
- no follow thru selling
- this may happen below 9000

- in trading if you expect something to happen and it does not happen
- be prepared to change your view and sides fast

May 6, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 9281
- AD was flat (why?)

- VIX down 5%.. less fear

Hope is not a plan

May 5, 2020

Text book perfect bear market rally?

Received on telegram



The Nifty seems to have a completed a textbook bear market rally.

The evidence that it has done so are:
1. Nifty retraced 50 percent of the fall at 9900
2. An Island Reversal was formed, which is an island of bars separated from the rest of the price action .
3.  Nifty formed a textbook Rising Wedge marked by green lines—a very bearish pattern, which is basically a triangle which looks like a door wedge, hence the name.
4. For the record a triangle consists of 5 waves: a b c d e5. Prices have broken below the base of the triangle, a further move to below 8900 will result in increased selling and a confirmation of this bearish pattern.

Bottom line we are heading toward Nifty 7500 and possibly below.

Errol Fernandes

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1% in negative at 9205
- this was inspite of a gapup opening of 2% plus
- AD was 1:2

- have been saying for a while this is a bear market rally
- all buy signals (indicators) will fail

- rising wedge break means high chance of retest of 7500

- today... continuation bar seen

- below 9000... expect fall to be faster

Bear attack?