December 3, 2020

Breakout likely in NIFTY 50 USD charts

 


Bill Ackman - Massive pent up demand - 2021 will be 'very, very good year'

Bill Ackman estimated that consumers are sitting on a colossal sum of up to $US3 trillion of savings.

People aren’t eating out, they’re not going on vacation, they’re not driving“, he pointed out.

It is elementary that when the restrictions are eased, consumers will go on a rampage and spending binge.

When you keep someone locked down, their next move when they can actually feel safe is going to be to go on a vacation, to go drinking, to go to dinner, to go to a show,” he stated.

It’s probably the single greatest time in history to open a restaurant,” he added.

It is obvious that the forthcoming quarterly results of companies as well as the GDP growth of Countries will be very strong due to the surge in spending by consumers. 

Read more at https://www.sohnheartsandminds.com.au/media/bill-ackman-says-go-long-2021-will-be-very-very-good-year

Best advice ever given in this correction

- SIP investment advice in this correction around 10000 levels has given a 30% return this year
- 10000 to 7500 and now to 13000+
- cannot remember last when we had such excellent gains

- I have been recommending investment in index funds for more than a decade
- no fund manager can beat the market so better to be the market

- you cannot time the market but you can be a disciplined investor at all levels.



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 13134

- AD was 2.5:1 ... this is too bullish and could be FOMO?

- nifty PE valutation is at 36+




Jeremy Grantham - this will be my 4th bubble in the markets

The legendary investor Jeremy Grantham told CNBC on Thursday that he was certain the stock market is in a bubble following its "powerful, rapid, and, in many areas, truly crazy" rally from March lows.

"The more spectacular the rise and the longer it goes, the more certainty one can have that you're in the 'real McCoy' bubble," said Grantham, the cofounder and chief investment strategist of the asset-management firm GMO.

Grantham initially expressed fears about a bubble to CNBC in June, when he told investors to have zero exposure to US equities and said he might be witnessing the fourth major market bubble in his career. The S&P 500 has gained roughly 14% since his call, and Grantham said this and "crazy behavior" from investors were only making him more certain the US is in a bubble.

December 2, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 13114
- AD was 3:2

- so far 13000 is providing good support
- swing low 12800



December 1, 2020

Buy signals today

ADANIENT - ADANIPORTS - ADANIPOWER - ADVENZYMES - AFFLE - APOLLOHOSP - 




GAIL - GESHIP - GRANULES - GRASIM - GREENPLY - HAL - INDIANB - INDUSINDBK - 


NBCC - NCC - NMDC - OBEROIRLTY - OIL - PRAJIND - PRESTIGE - PTC - REPCOHOME - 

ROSSARI - SCI - SHK - SHREECEM - SUNDRMFAST - SUNPHARMA - TATACOFFEE - 

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 13109
- AD was 2:1

- trailing SL 12800
- good support 12500

- option writing support 13000 res 13500



ATR trailing stop indicator in Upstox terminal

Some simple rules:

  • setting is 20 periods and multiplier set at 3
  • take entry on crossover but not for exits
  • for exits, use 3-5 bar low in case of a long position and vice versa
  • keep risk per trade under 1%
  • expect half the signals to fail (true for all trading systems)
  • expect lot of whipsaws in rangebound market

These are same rules for supertrend indicator and kplswing.

5 min:

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Volumes in F&O segment to shrink as peak margin rules kick in today

Volumes in the futures and options (F&O) segment are expected to shrink by a third in the coming months as the new peak margin norms come into effect from Tuesday. The F&O segment contributes about 90 per cent to the overall market volumes, nearly half of which is intra-day and heavily reliant on excess leverage.

The maximum intra-day leverage that can be offered by a broker will now be restricted and will keep reducing until September 1, 2021. After this, a broker can provide maximum leverage that is equal to SPAN+exposure for the F&O segment and VaR+ELM (minimum 20 per cent) for the cash segment.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/volumes-in-f-o-segment-to-shrink-as-peak-margin-rules-kick-in-today-120120100063_1.html

November 27, 2020

Trader's query on day trading, managing emotions

Dear KPL Sir,

I introduce myself as a fellow junior trader who has been doing swing trading for the last 2-3 years. I track days high and low along with OI and take positions only in index Future. Been a win some and lose some trader and have always kept my size and SL under check hence not blown aways my capital till date.... thankfully. Every expiry brings something new to learn and understand.

I follow your website and articles regularly but not a member of your forum as I do not have much to contribute in this initial journey except to observe as much as possible. 

I am approaching you for small guidance actually. I started day trading around Jan this year and have realised that this involves huge emotional capital which is very difficult for normal human beings like me (not made big losses but no big profits either till now in intra day) and was looking for a system based trade for index and checked the KPL swing system that you have on your website. 

Request you if you can help in understanding if I can start using this indicator in 5 min/15 min time frame for intra day trades. Since you do show this indicator on your website and have been using this since long, can you pl guide me in understanding if I too can follow this system blindly and be profitable. I am looking to follow a system which takes out my emotions and discretion from trades and more importantly be profitable.

Just to let you know, I do not use Amibroker as yet and trade out of the trading terminal only.

Thanks for your guidance and being a helpful trader in the community.

Answer

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 12969
- AD was 2:1

- weekly charts are likely to show a doji
- swing low 12700
- support 12500

- Monday is a trading holiday 



November 26, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:



15 min:

NIFTY EOD chart

- trend is up on daily chart
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 12987
- AD was 2:1

- VIX dropped 13% to 20

- yesterday's red bar had no follow thru selling
- this was along expected lines

- region of 12500-12700 to provide very good support



November 25, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:



NIFTY EOD chart

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty opened gapup but closed 1.5% in negative at 12858
- in the process, a huge engulfing bar was formed.
- this has happened few times in the past but it led to no further correction

- AD was 1:2 (not bad)
- VIX shot up 10% to 23

- negative divergence on RSI chart

- swing low 12700
- support 12500-12000



November 24, 2020

NIFTY RSI chart

- nifty has made a new high but RSI has not as yet
- negative divergence to kick in if 12700 breaks

- google for more info on RSI



NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:


NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 13055
- this is the first ever close above 13000
- AD was 11:8

- swing low around 12700



November 19, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:


NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.3% in negative at 12772
- AD was 4:5

- resistance around 13000... big round number
- support 12500

- banknifty also reversed from 30000... big round number



Expanding wedge on S&P 500 weekly charts

 



November 18, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5min:


NIFY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in positive at 12938
- AD was 5:4

- swing support / SL 12500

- next resistance 13500



November 17, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2 % in positive at 12874 
- change is 0.74% positive compared to Muharat trading session which I do not track

- AD was 5:4

- NIFTY PE ratio at 34 +



100 year audit relationships

 


November 15, 2020

4 signs of possible top out in market

 

November 13, 2020

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.2% in positive at 12720
- AD was 3:2

- triangle movement seen (last 3 days)
- so consolidation happening

- till 12500 breaks, nothing to worry



November 12, 2020

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed o.5% in red at 12691
- AD was 3:2 (good)

- sideways movement likely for few days to 2 weeks

- support 12000



NIFTY hourly charts

- after a huge rally, markets are consolidating
- this process can take few days to 2 weeks

- supports will develop during this period
- right now 12600 looks like a good support

- note breakout level of 12000 should ideally be tested at least once




November 11, 2020

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in positive at 12749

- AD was 5:4

- rally has been very strong with 7 consecutive green bars and
- 6 gap ups

- 2 hanging man bars formed
- but till we have a break below 12500 I will not be worried

- nifty is up almost up 10% this month
- a consolidation of 1-2 weeks cannot be ruled out



November 10, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:


INDIAVIX charts... for reference only

 


NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.4% in positive at 12631

- today is 5th gap up

- AD was 4:5... not good
- midcaps were flat and smallcaps closed slightly in the red

- VIX up 7% to 21.6
- NIFTY PE ratio 34

- BANKNIFTY up 20% this month versus 7% NIFTY



November 9, 2020

Stocks at 52 week high

 ADANIENT

ADANIENT chart

NIFTY intraday charts

 15 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty closed 1.6% in positive at 12461
- this is highest ever close

- AD was 3:2

- trend remains strongly up
- nothing to worry as long as 12000 does not break



BANKNIFTY breakout

 - next resistance 28000-30000



November 6, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts


NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1/2% in positive at 12263
- AD was 3:2

- option writers feel 12000 will not break this series
- swing low 11500





You can be right about market direction but still not make money

 

NSE advance decline chart

 


November 5, 2020

CNX 500 index nearing resistance

 


NIFTY intraday charts


NIFTY EOD chart

- new buy signal today
- the previous buy signal got stoplossed
- the current buy signal will get stoplossed if nifty closed below 5 or 10 bar low (your choice)
- swing low 11500.... good support

- today nifty closed 1.8% in positive at 12120
- AD was healthy at 3:1
- VIX dropped 10% to 21

- note we had lot of big red bars from 12000 levels
- this was indicative of large selling
- now that 12000 is taken out, it should offer support

- note complete reversal of today's gains and closed below 12000 will 
- lead to formation of pin bar



November 4, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

- staying away from markets this week



NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11908
- AD was flat

- VIX down 4% to 23

- good support at 11500, resistance at 12000

- BNF was earlier underperforming the nifty, now it is trading above AUG/SEP swing high



The Ideal Company Doesn’t Pay A Dividend

....You in my view you should never invest in equities for income. You should invest in equities for the greatest total return that you can get. So that’s the growth of the share price plus any income and if you need to spend some money sell some of your holdings, which I know isn’t rational to some people but I assure you is the correct way to do this.

The ideal company doesn’t pay a dividend and if a company can make a 30% return on capital why would you want it to pay you a dividend? You by and large can’t make a 30% return on capital so you want it to retain the earnings and generate that return for you.

November 3, 2020

NIFTY hourly charts

- selling pressure near 12000
- red bars are bigger than green bars



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