September 25, 2020

Why PMS does not make sense

 


The game of low float

September 24, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:


15 min:



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is down on daily charts (from today)
- nifty closed 3% in negative at 10805
- AD was 1:5

- VIX up 12%
- NIFTY PE ratio at 31... way too high for long term investors

- swing reversal level 11500-11800
- next support 10500-10000



Why successful students fail in life

 “I believe that our society’s “mistakephobia” is crippling, a problem that begins in most elementary schools, where we learn to learn what we are taught rather than to form our own goals and to figure out how to achieve them. We are fed with facts and tested andthose who make the fewest mistakes are considered to be the smart ones, so we learn that it is embarrassing to not know and to make mistakes. Our education system spends virtually no time on how to learn from mistakes, yet this is critical to real learning. Asa result, school typically doesn’t prepare young people for real life unless their lives are spent following instructions and pleasing others. In my opinion, that’s why so many students who succeed in school fail in life”.


-Ray Dalio

September 23, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- break of initial range was short trade
- cover as per trailing SL

- one could have shorted around 11230-11250 F as this was resistance

- missed long trade near 11000 F 
- no signal but known that 11000 was a very good support


15 min:



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11132
- AD was 1:2

- immediate support area is 11000-10800

- note nifty has spent 3 years around 11000
- so markets will be sideways for some time

- NIFTY PE ratio is at 32 and indicates limited upside
- unless EPS improves substantially (unlikely)



September 22, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

- rangebound day
- first hour high low not crossed

- today's high low will be decision levels for tomorrow



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11154
- AD was 1:3

- VIX dropped 5%...now at 21



September 21, 2020

Short term, medium term and long term

 


NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:


15 min:


30 min:



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2.5% in negative at 11222
- AD was 1:5

- note trend will reverse on close below 11000
- however big red bars like today and 31-AUG hint that trend will reverse



September 18, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- lucky if you could catch the breakout failure
- I did not 


NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11505
- AD was flat

- net move this month is 35 points over 14 trading days



September 17, 2020

S&P 500 charts

US markets open gap down but near support...

if support breaks, expect a deeper correction




NIFTY options open interest distribution

- highest OI evenly split between 11500 PE and 12000 CE



NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- today only short trade was profitable
- did not trade long


15 min:



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 11519
- AD was 1:2




Investing is hard.... very hard

 








September 15, 2020

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11522
- AD was 3:2

- in 42 days, nifty has moved from 11000 to 11521
- average move of 12 points per day
- this month, net move is almost zero points in 11 days

- NIFTY PE ratio is at 33

- swing low support 11000



Jio Financial Services?

September 14, 2020

CNX SMALLCAP index up 5% today

 

Breakout in CNX IT index

 

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min


15 min:




NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts

- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11440

- AD was 2:1

- banknifty was very weak

- while small cap index was up 5%



September 11, 2020

NIFTY 30 min charts

- this month nifty opened around 11450 F
- and today, it is still around that level

- markets still rangebound




NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11464
- AD was 5:4

- so far there has been follow thru selling 
- markets have gained almost 400 points from recent lows
- however strong resistance is seen around 11500

- support remains at 11000

- nifty PE at 32+


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S&P 500 roller coaster ride continues

 

NIFTY futures support and resistance levels

 


NIFTY options open interest distribution

 - strong resistance at 11500



September 9, 2020

NIFTY options open interest distribution

- analysis is for monthly expiry
- highest OI is at 11000 PE followed by 10500 PE
- reduction in put OI seen and increase in OTM calls OI seen
- puts below 10500 has increase in OI
-in calls, highest OI is at 11500 CE followed by 12000 CE

- no clear conclusion can be drawn



NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.34 in negative at 11278
- AD was 1:2

- despite gap down opening, markets managed a close near day's high
- RELIANCE closed 2.5% in positive ... a large move for an index heavyweight
- stock contributed approx 80 points move in nifty



September 5, 2020

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- index could not sustain above 24000 
- below 22000 more weakness



Bearish engulfing bar on weekly charts

- this week we had a bearish engulfing bar on weekly charts
- bar size was 500 points

- not all such patterns lead to a correction or reversal
- but it helps to stay cautious

- similar patterns (not exact matches) have been circled on chart



September 4, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- first short trade to be ignored as nifty did not close NEAR low
- ditto for next long trade.. if long on 2nd signal, stopped out on TSL
- last short trade was profitable


15 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- let us keep this simple
- trend is up as per swing indicator
- trailing SL at 5 bar low for long
- stopped out today

- irrespective of whatever method you follow for entry
- keep 5 bar or 10 bar low as exit level for a long position 
- and vice versa



Candlestick reversal patterns

 Image

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