July 6, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts:

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.5% in positive at 10764
- AD was 3:2

- close is slightly above/ outside the rising wedge
- I am close to discarding this wedge as it is "going on too long" and
- breakdown should have happened by now

- however past 3 trading days, nifty has gained 330 points
- most gains were overnight/ due to gap up
- but after market open, trading range was very limited


Correction over? Maybe



HDFCBANK rising wedge


ITC rising wedge


July 4, 2020

RELIANCE expanding triangle on weekly charts


BANKNIFTY is underperforming the NIFTY

BANKNIFTY technicals

- strong resistance at 22000
- one breakout above this has failed

- above this, expect a blast to 24000-26000


July 3, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts:

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty is at upper end of rising wedge
- nifty closed 0.5% in positive at 10607
- AD was flat

- VIX down 3%
- if a reversal has to happen, volatility and VIX will increase
- the opposite is happening so more upside is possible?

- unless 10300 and then 10000 breaks, trend can safely be considered up

- the rising wedge has lot of sideways movement
- so hourly charts (posted separately) will give a better trading perspective


11,000 is coming in the month of July - IIFL Securities



July 2, 2020

Stocks at 52 week high

BAYERCROP

BAYERCROP chart

NIFTY intraday charts

3 min charts



NIFTY EOD charts

- today nifty closed 1.1% in positive at 10552
- AD was 3:2
- VIX down 6% at 26.5

- rising wedge still intact though time is running out

- BANKNIFTY was flat and had a failed breakout


July 1, 2020

Breakout on BANKNIFTY 30 min charts

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts:

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty closed 1.2% in positive at 10430
- AD was flat

- VIX down 3% at 28

- tomorrow is weekly expiry
- 10300 is expected to hold
- resistance 10500


June 30, 2020

Why We’re Blind to Probability

Most people get that certainties are rare, and the best you can do is make decisions where the odds are in your favor. They understand you can be smart and end up wrong, or dumb and end up right, because that’s how luck and risk work.

But almost no one actually uses probability in the real world, especially when judging others’ success.

Most of what people care about is, “Were you right or wrong?”

Probability is about nuance and gradation. But in the real world people pay attention to black and white.

If you said something will happen and it happens, you were right.

If you said it will happen and it doesn’t, you’re wrong.

That’s how people think, because it doesn’t take much effort to think it.



NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts


NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty closed flat at 10302
- AD was 4:5

- range compression as we near end of rising wedge

- NIFTY PE ratio is 26
- would love to see how it changes with this quarterly results 




Candlesticks basics

Image

June 29, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts


5 min charts:
- ignored first short signal as bar was green
- took short as per arrow... stopped out at tiny loss
- ignored first long signal as bar did not close near high
- did nothing thereafter


15 min charts:
- short trade stopped out






NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty continues to trade within rising wedge
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 10312
- AD was 1:2

- trading range was extremely narrow 


June 28, 2020

NIFTY bar charts multiple timeframes

Sometimes, bar charts provide a very neat and clean look...

15 min charts:
- here support is  clearly seen at 10200 and resistance at 10350 F

June 27, 2020

BANKNIFTY charts

- breakout failure above 22000
- support 20000


NIFTY weekly charts

- spinning top
- indecision between bulls and bears
- weakness if 10000 breaks

Image

Video: Expiry day trading strategy (Hindi)


June 26, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts (spot)

5 min charts:


NIFTY EOD charts

- markets trading within rising wedge
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 10383
- AD was 5:4

- VIX down 4% to 29

- ATR now 223 (14 day)
- support 10000


A 50% win rate is all you need

A 50% win rate with solid risk management is all you need to succeed

50 wins × Rs 1000 = +Rs 50,000
50 losses × Rs 500 = -Rs 25,000

100 trades with a 50% win rate and 2:1 reward to risk nets +Rs 25,000

Every trade must be taken with this concept in mind. 

Embrace small losses

Indian citizens giving stimulus to the government?


June 25, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts:
- ignored first short trade as there was buying
- next long and short trade stopped out at tiny loss
- did nothing thereafter

Image

NIFTY EOD charts

- NIFTY is trading within rising wedge
- today markets opened gapup down but closed flat at 10289
- AD was 5:4

- gapdown was because of prev day engulfing bar
- and bad global clues
- but the first bar saw lot of buying trapping the new short traders

- trading range was limited to 10200-10350

- going forward, I expect the lower trendline to offer support
- difficult to assign a value to this


June 24, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts with kplswing indicator:
- 4 trades... all breakeven or small profits
- break of 10350 was only profitable trade

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty continues to trade within the rising wedge
- today nifty reversed from upper trendline
- close was 1.6% in negative at 10305

- bearish engulfing bar formed

- AD was 8:11

- support 10000 resistance 11000


AllStarCharts: RELIANCE has 35% more upside

While I am seeing limited upsides in RELIANCE due to a huge expanding triangle, Tom Bruni of AllStarCharts sees another 35% upside.

>>>
Suggesting that Reliance Industries could rise another 35% from current levels may seem like a bold call, especially since it has doubled off the March lows. But when you consider our thesis that Equities are in the midst of a new Bull Market then it makes sense that the largest stock in the market would be leading the charge.

And with relative strength hitting new highs and our risk well-defined on an absolute basis, even if we’re wrong the reward/risk is so skewed in our favor that any losses are small enough relative to the potential reward to warrant putting on the trade.

The bottom line is, if Reliance Industries is above 1,600 we want to be long with a 6-month target up near 2,340.
<<<

The curious case of GLENMARK Pharma

  • Favipiravir drug cannot change the fortunes of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals in terms of revenue or profits. So if you do want to buy or sell the stock, do your own research on the total business of the company.
  • Just because a company is covered by all news sources does not make it a great buy. Do your own research.
  • Even with a 5-6% of the company getting traded in a day and not a buy name in the bulk deals and hardly any Mutual Fund ownership suggests there is no major institutional interest in the company. ( We will know more when the quarterly shareholding pattern comes out. )
  • Would be interesting to see who bought the 25-40% pop. Was it retail or institutions. Will wait for the Quarterly shareholding and Mutual Fund Factsheets post current month.
  • I have no major view on the stock price but a simple technical take would be the opening and low price of 450 on the announcement day is important. If it does not hold up it makes the technical trend negative. A fresh look technically if it can sustain above the highs of 550-570. But preference would be to do nothing
  • No Positions on the stock or understanding of the company just a view based on publicly available price and volume data. Do your own research – Not a recommendation to buy or sell.

NIFTY nearing top?


June 23, 2020

Stocks at 52 week high

AARTIDRUGS

AARTIDRUGS chart

BANKNIFTY finally manages a close above 22000


NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty closed 1.5% in positive at 10471
- AD was 5:2

- new buy signal today
- the previous one failed
- as usual, keep SL around 5 bar low or twice the ATR (233 today)



June 22, 2020

Stocks at all time high

AARTIDRUGS

AARTIDRUGS chart

RELIANCE Big Boss


NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty trading within rising wedge
- today close was 0.7% in positive at 10311
- AD was 2:1

- trading range was very small
- small doji formed


June 20, 2020

BANKNIFTY charts

- trading in a range
- stiff resistance 22000

- above this, next resistance 24000


Weekly charts





RELIANCE charts - a new perspective

The stock has doubled in 3 months... this is rare for an index heavyweight

June 19, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts



NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty is rangebound between 9500 and 10500
- today markets closed 1.5% in positive at 10244
- AD was 2:1

- VIX dropped 5% to 30

- rising wedge seen on charts
- this limits upside to 10500-10600 (upper trendline)
- break of lower trendline will lead to a big correction

- nifty PE ratio is around 25


NIFTY PE ratio at 25


BANKNIFTY breakout


Stocks at all time high

ADANIGREEN

ADANIGREEN chart

June 18, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts:

SL 10030-10050 

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty is trading in range between 9500 and 10500

- today nifty closed 2% in positive at 10091
- AD was 3:1
- VIX dropped 5% to 32


June 17, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min charts:
- rangebound day
- nifty failed to sustain above first hour high
- big no 10000 provided strong resistance


15 min charts:
- no signal today