March 23, 2019

Simple investment strategies based on PE ratio

Life cannot get simpler than this!



NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week, nifty traded in a small range and closed flat
- support 11000

BANKNIFTY daily and weekly charts

- trend is up
- now trading at all time highs
- from 27000 to 30000, index maintained higher high higher lows
- Friday we saw this break and index formed a bearish engulfing bar

- there is no swing low between 26500 and 30000
- a correction may lead to formation of a higher swing low

March 22, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.6% in negative at 11457
- AD was 1:2

- bearish engulfing bar formed; however size of prev bars is too small

- note there is no swing low between 10600 and 11600

- option writing support 11000 resistance 11600

Bye Bye NIFTY long..




The BJP (website) is back online




Orange Skin, Thick Bones, and All the Other Ways the Human Body Could Change on Mars

...we should expect a fair bit of evolutionary divergence between Mars settlers and the human population on Earth, according to Rice University biologist Scott Solomon, who examined this possibility in his 2016 book Future Humans: Inside the Science of Our Continuing Evolution. That divergence will start unspooling at the outset, thanks to something called “the founder effect.” No matter how or when it happens, the Red Planet will be settled by a relatively small group of people who are not perfectly representative of the entire human population. For example, it’s a pretty safe bet that Mars pioneers will be atypically adventurous and risk-tolerant. That means, Muskton — the odds are decent that the first Red Planet burg will be named after SpaceX’s CEO — will likely feature more rock-climbing gyms and bordellos per capita than cities here on Earth.

And those initial differences will snowball, because Mars and Earth are very different worlds. The Red Planet is much smaller; the force of gravity on its surface is just 38 percent of the pull we feel here on Earth. Mars also lacks ...

Read more at https://medium.com/s/thenewnew/orange-skin-thick-bones-and-all-the-other-ways-the-human-body-could-change-on-mars-805245d4463

SBI Airlines?

How much of this is fake news?

The media controls what it wants to show you and decides how to present  it. ... it all depends on the hidden agenda which you will never know.




March 20, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11521
- AD was negative at 7:11

- option writing support 11000

Ericsson teaches Anil Ambani and India's nascent bankruptcy system a lesson

... Ericsson’s lawyers will deserve a glowing mention. For an unsecured creditor to walk away with a 48 percent recovery of its claim – while secured lenders wait patiently for RCom to sell its spectrum, redevelop its land assets and pay them something – shows that the Swedish firm played its cards well.

It also shows the secured creditors, led by State Bank of India, in a rather poor light. They have been deluding themselves since June 2017, when they agreed to an out-of-court restructuring, including a plan to convert part of their debt into equity at almost 25 rupees a share.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/ericsson-teaches-anil-ambani-and-india-s-nascent-bankruptcy-system-a-lesson-119031900331_1.html

Video: The most populous cities in the world from 1500 to 2018 - excellent

NIFTY 50 percentage of stocks with positive momentum

March 19, 2019

NIFTY PE ratio at 28+


NIFTY RSI at 80 !



Last time this happened was in JAN 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.6% in positive at 10532
- AD was flat

- pattern formed today was "hanging man"
- this is after a shooting star and doji formed in past 2 days
- higher highs and higher lows is still being maintained
- but patterns show signs of selling everyday (AD not supporting)

- option writing support 11000 - this has not increased. Why?

SIP and dip: Is the dream run over for systematic investment plans?

Janya Menghrajani Desai, 30, was interning with a financial planner in July 2017 when she learnt about Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) and, considering her risk-averse nature, decided it would be a good way to put money aside as well as ensure it grows. “I’m not someone who takes the risk of investing in stocks directly, so when the planner told me about SIPs, I said why not,” says Desai.

In the past 20 months she has put in ₹1 lakh but made exactly ₹520 on it. “It’s not even 1 percent,” she says, adding that if she had even left it in her savings account, she would at least have made 4 percent. She plans to wait and watch for a few months after the elections in May and then, if the situation doesn’t improve, pull the money out.

Read more at http://www.forbesindia.com/article/investment-special-2019/sip-and-dip-is-the-dream-run-over-for-systematic-investment-plans/52823/1

Find a trading approach that suits you best




ATR Indicator Secrets: Powerful Strategies to Profit in Bull & Bear Markets

March 18, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.3% in positive at 11462
- AD was negative 7:10
- past 2-3 days, breadth is negative

- Friday, we had a shooting star
- today a doji/ spinning top was formed (indecision  between bulls and bears)

- option writing support 11000

Was the recent 737 Max crash a software problem?

Interesting thread on  design issues and band aid fixes




There are no perfect entries




How to read this chart?

USDINR weekly charts

- self explanatory


March 17, 2019

Inverse correlation between USDINR and Nifty

- When the USDINR tops out, our markets bottom out.
- don't focus on exact date...

USDINR chart

Simpler GST turns out to be bad business for India's tax consultants

MUMBAI: For a newly minted partner in one of the Big Four professional services firms, becoming a stay-at-home dad had never crossed his mind. That, until last month.

He had joined the company as a partner in 2016, with a 30% pay hike, from a rival firm. With an eight-figure salary, a chauffeur-driven, high-end German car and a penthouse in a tony Bengaluru neighbourhood, it looked like a perfect job. He is now on gardening leave - a six-month cooling-off period that a partner must ob ..

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68434874.cms

March 16, 2019

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- excellent breakout
- trend is up

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- this week, there was a very good breakout above 11000 levels
- option writers feel that 11000 will not break this series

- rejecting H&S view.... it was educational while it lasted
- confirmation was break of 10000... this never happened and we had a breakout on upside

- retest of 11000 this week can negate bullish view (longer time it takes the better)

March 15, 2019

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 15-MAR-2019 
BAJFINANCE
BAJFINANCE chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11426
- close was near halfway of the bar
- pattern formed... shooting star

- AD was negative at 7:10
- past 2-3 days, AD is not great

Market outlook

Daily charts: 
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11343
- sequence of higher highs higher lows is maintained
- however size of the bars is getting smaller
- AD was 4:5

- support 11000-10600

- option writing support 11000 resistance 11500

March 14, 2019

Freak trade in NIFTY Futures on 13-MAR?

- see first bar on 13th March
- nifty made a low of 11100
- till 3.15pm, this was not visible on my datafeed
- this is inspite of 2 disconnections forcing me to backfill twice
- logged off markets at 3.15pm and logged in at 5.30
- automatic backfill showed this huge big bar which was missing all day long
- I thought this was a freak trade hence deleted first minute of the day
- today when I start datafeed, the  huge bar comes again.

- this bar did not appear on upstox intraday charts yesterday
- even today, upstox shows yesterday first bar low around 11300 and not 11100

- whom to trust???

500+ dream jobs available

Every trade is unique

March 13, 2019

BANK NIFTY at new high...

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11342
- AD was 6:11

- hanging man formed today; small body
- check last week of AUG charts and this month charts
- small correction possible?

- I am now getting bullish on long term... see separate post on this

- option writing support 11000

Are we at the start of a new bull run?

These charts/ breakouts are the reason I have become bullish...

See the gains after the breakout

I am expecting a repeat of this... so excellent opportunities in next 2-3 years.

March 12, 2019

Stock signals 12-MAR-2019

Nifty 200 stocks... recommended list for trading

  • Liquidity filter: ||||| good liquidity - ||||| excellent liquidity. Avoid stocks with ||||| low liquidity.
Stock nameCloseChange20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month's52 week
TrendDateStoplossReversalHighLowHighLow
||||| ADANIPORTS361.052.50%BUY12/03/19315.75315.75359316416292
||||| AJANTPHARM1043.055.50%BUY12/03/19945.50945.5010319031458896
||||| ALKEM1736.25-0.50%SELL08/10/181800.001897.901929173722681726
||||| APOLLOTYRE226.804.00%BUY28/02/19206.45196.70218194307192
||||| ARVIND93.356.50%BUY07/03/1972.8072.80897312073
||||| AUROPHARMA773.253.00%BUY12/03/19695.00695.00805695830527
||||| BALKRISIND935.453.00%BUY25/02/19856.50802.709057441454744
||||| BATAINDIA1368.252.00%BUY01/11/181271.251182.30133011161374674
||||| BHARATFIN988.653.50%BUY12/03/19914.30912.209709121235824
||||| CASTROLIND167.101.00%BUY12/03/19148.50145.75162145214135
||||| DBL621.853.50%BUY15/02/19412.50358.004783121248312
||||| DLF187.756.00%BUY05/03/19161.85154.40181152227142
||||| DMART1510.601.50%BUY12/03/191440.001403.151526137616991126
||||| EDELWEISS179.703.50%BUY05/03/19135.35115.60156116342116
||||| EXIDEIND230.351.50%BUY12/03/19210.70194.30231194305194
||||| GLENMARK635.253.00%BUY12/03/19571.75554.00665554712494
||||| GSPL180.554.00%BUY12/03/19153.70148.65180149207149
||||| HAVELLS765.453.00%BUY30/10/18689.35665.45754665770484
||||| HDFCBANK2171.002.00%BUY12/03/192070.002070.002155207322201834
||||| INDHOTEL151.054.50%BUY12/03/19136.30134.10147134156109
||||| INDUSINDBK1569.053.50%BUY12/03/191458.201455.001557145520381333
||||| INFY706.95-0.50%SELL08/03/19752.60760.35772721772551
||||| LT1388.903.00%BUY07/03/191253.001201.101335120114601182
||||| M&M687.901.00%BUY12/03/19640.00615.60715616993616
||||| MRPL73.101.00%BUY05/03/1962.2562.00696211761
||||| NMDC111.900.50%BUY28/02/1996.2091.101029112689
||||| SRTRANSFIN1272.451.00%BUY26/02/191080.30994.8011549951669902
||||| SUNPHARMA470.302.00%BUY05/03/19422.85412.35455403679370
||||| TATAGLOBAL204.901.00%BUY12/03/19185.35178.60208177300177
||||| TITAN1086.451.50%BUY10/01/191002.051002.0510779851096732
||||| TORNTPHARM1841.902.50%BUY01/11/181758.501743.101860174319621221
||||| VGUARD221.751.00%BUY01/03/19187.65183.40211183255159

Get this report everyday by email. Click here for more info.

Market outlook

Market outlook:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in positive at 11301
- AD was 11:7

- swing low support 10600 resistance 11400/ 11500 (minor)
- strong support expected around 11000

We are heading for a 10-year big bull market: Porinju Veliyath, Equity Intelligence India

The Breadth and Breakout Thrust - explosive bull signal

March 11, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in positive at 11168
- AD was 13:5

- breakout from 3-4 month range has been on upside

- is H&S pattern over?
- note that it was being formed and confirmation was break of 10000
- so far this has not happened

- bearish tristar was seen last week
- no confirmation this week so we ignore this

- swing low support 10600
- option writers bullish that 11000 will not break this series

Irony: it is election time and BJP will be back soon

- the official site was hacked few days ago
- since then the site is down and looks like they have no backup
- it is now election season and we don't know if BJP will be back or not
- but the message is clear on the site - We'll be back soon

Vivek Gadodia: From system analyst to market wizard

The biggest hurdle to me was psychological. I was only a trend-following trader back then, and as you know the general win-loss ratio of a trend follower is low. In my case, it was around 35-40 percent.


I have been a good student throughout my school and college life, who topped the class and studied to get the perfect score. This 35-40 percent win rate in the market did not match with my expectations of being right all the time.

I was constantly in search of the proverbial Holy Grail. The eureka moment for me was the Ed Seykota interview in Market Wizard. His 'Whipsaw Song' exemplifies the predicament of a trend follower. He says 'One good trade makes for all the small losses' which clicked with me.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/vivek-gadodia-from-system-analyst-to-market-wizard-3627021.html

March 10, 2019

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 27500-26500
- resistance 28350-28500

March 9, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down on weekly charts
- H&S pattern seen on chart
- Right shoulder under development
- confirmation of pattern will be break of 10000

CNX 500 chart

- index is trading sideways
- now at resistance 9260
- double top/ bearish tri star formed
- confirmation will be break of 9200 tomorrow



March 8, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 11035
- this is the first weekly close above 11000 after 23 weeks
- AD was flat

- bearish tri star pattern formed on daily charts
- confirmation will be gap down opening below 11000 on Monday

- but option writers are bullish 11000 will not break
- so interesting week ahead

Will NIFTY give a bearish 3 star pattern today?

The bearish Tri Star candlestick pattern is a bearish reversal pattern composed of three candles signaling the reversal of an uptrend.


Each of the Tri Star’s candles are Doji’s. Because it is extremely rare to see this candlestick pattern on your charts, when you do happen to come across it, it should not be ignored.

A few criteria must be met in order for the Tri Star pattern to be considered a valid bearish reversal signal:

Read more at http://www.candlestickpatterns.org/3-candle-patterns/tri-star-bearish/

S&P 500 60 min charts

- double top sell
- since then the index is breaking supports
- if 2740 breaks, expect correction to 2685

- I don't expect 2685 to break
- on higher degree timeframe charts, an inverted H&S may be forming


March 7, 2019

Bullish? Bearish?




Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 42,000 by Dec

No provision for a bearish case?


Read more at   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68303457.cms

Market outlook

Market outlook:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11058
- AD was flat

- option writers expect 11000 to hold this series

- swing low 10600 resistance 11200 region

Amazing how our brains can interpret this so fast

NIFTY PE chart

- difficult for long term investors to be bullish

March 6, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.6% in positive at 11053
- this is the second close above 11000 this year (1st attempt was 6th Feb)

- AD was 2:1

- option writers bullish 11000 will not break this series

- swing low 10600 resistance 11150-11200 (will break)

Option writing clues

- writers are bullish and do not expect 11000 to break this series
- till yesterday, highest OI was at 10800 PE... now it has jumped to 11000 PE
- added one more pair in puts (short 11000 PE and long 10900 PE)

March 3, 2019

5 ways to set a stoploss




Swing trading signals 1-MAR-2019

Stock nameCloseChange20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month's52 week
TrendDateStoplossReversalHighLowHighLow
||||| ABCAPITAL95.954.00%BUY25/02/1979.7077.50947816678
||||| ACC1481.704.00%BUY01/03/191326.001326.001457132616791256
||||| BHARATFORG519.751.00%BUY26/02/19456.10456.10518456785456
||||| BHEL66.152.50%BUY01/03/1960.9056.2066569256
||||| CENTURYTEX830.753.50%BUY01/03/19709.00705.508227061274706
||||| DISHTV41.356.00%BUY01/03/1932.6020.2540208219
||||| FCONSUMER47.452.00%BUY04/02/1942.3041.7547426335
||||| ICICIGI950.252.00%BUY14/02/19895.05850.75940851957639
||||| IDFC40.159.50%BUY01/03/1931.6031.6040326032
||||| MINDTREE932.852.50%BUY18/01/19859.00859.009288591184745
||||| NTPC143.001.00%BUY01/03/19132.30128.00143128180128
||||| PEL2372.001.50%BUY25/02/192148.052070.252349202533081795
||||| SAIL52.358.50%BUY01/03/1944.2544.0050449144
||||| SBILIFE607.905.00%BUY01/03/19515.55515.55604555775485
||||| SPARC185.454.00%BUY25/02/19156.00140.70180141438141
||||| SRTRANSFIN1159.901.50%BUY26/02/19994.80994.8011549951669902
||||| TV18BRDCST35.555.50%BUY01/03/1930.7030.4534307130
||||| VGUARD211.603.00%BUY01/03/19183.70183.40211183255159
||||| YESBANK237.602.50%BUY25/02/19201.00168.10237168404147

Get this report everyday by email. Click here for more info.