June 30, 2018

Life in Silicon vallley, few years later

The big project you are working on is outsourcing all of engineering to the East Bay. Your company used to outsource engineering to India, but they quickly realized after looking at the company’s Twitter feed of pictures of the ice sculpture from the holiday party that they should be asking for a lot more money. You’re afraid you are also in the process of outsourcing your own job. Someone, somewhere would definitely sit in meetings for less money.

Your boss is your age. He never got an exit either. He references his “start-up glory days” regularly.

OK. Who are you kidding? You are bored. You are surfing the internet. You start with searches about real estate licenses. Maybe you should be a real estate agent. It feels like the purpose of tech companies and venture capitalists is to funnel money into property anyway. Maybe if you magically get between two gigantic piles of money, some will land in your lap somehow.

You research day trading. Maybe you could make a few bucks that way. What if you bought some crypto? It’s down right now. Maybe Tim Draper is right, and it will be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. Or maybe Warren Buffet is right, and it will be worth nothing. You create a Coinbase account but don’t have the courage to do anything. You should have just bought Facebook stock at IPO and held. You would have made more money.

Nah, buying Facebook stock would be evil.

Read more at https://thebolditalic.com/this-is-your-life-in-silicon-valley-two-years-later-8651001e3ff8

Domino effect of cobalt supplies and impact on electric vehicles

Today, stories pontificating the environmental benefits of electric vehicles, or EVs, deluge the automotive universe. While EVs do have the potential to change the global transportation landscape, a supply chain disaster seems to be brewing, which could jeopardize the availability of cobalt — probably the most important raw material in lithium-ion batteries powering EVs. Roughly 60% of the world’s cobalt is produced as a by-product of copper and nickel ores located in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Problem is the vast majority of Congolese cobalt reserves is controlled by Chinese miners, which in turn, supply to Chinese battery manufacturers and EV makers. Such cobalt ‘lock-in’ behavior could soon turn into a supply chain nightmare for Tesla and its western brethren.

Read more at https://medium.com/@tausif000/electric-vehicles-celestial-future-d77599793962

BANKNIFTY monthly and quarterly charts

Monthly  and Quarterly charts
- trend is up
- support 23600

NIFTY monthly and quarterly charts

Monthly charts
- trend is up
- support 10000
- last 2 months, doji formed indicating indecision

- below 10000, retest possible of 9000

NIFTY weekly charts

- index trading sideways
- this week's candlesticks suggests bullishness
- for confirmation, sustaining above 10850 spot is a must

- inability to sustain above Friday's high can lead to more weakness

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- rangebound between 26000 and 27000

S&P 500 reverses from upper trendline of expanding triangle


June 29, 2018

S&P 500 at upper end of expanding triangle


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1.2% in positive at 10714
- AD was 3:1
- option writing support at 10600

- double bottom support at 10540 spot
- strong resistance at 10850 spot

How to find great stocks

Formula for success




How to survive the Smallcap Crash in 2018 ! @nooreshtech

... the Nifty is just down 5% from the peak of 11171 but the broader market is down 20% or more from the peaks of 2018 but the sentiments have taken a knock as many stocks have fallen a lot from peaks.

Why is a 20-25% drop from the peaks such a sentiment hit ?

1) Some of the worst hit stocks have fallen 50-90% also.

Its not the 50-90% fall but the problem is some companies which are outright frauds never come back to previous prices and there is permanent loss of capital.

I remember recommending Nilkamal , Aarti Inds, NBCC, Supreme Petro etc and seeing a drop of 30-50% in 2012-2013 and a multi-fold rally in coming 1-2 years.

If one can avoid frauds itself is enough. Also if you get one diversification should help you save your portfolio. Have recommended duds like Cebbco, Zicom too but allocations was a savior.

2) 80% of stocks have fallen more than 20% and the median fall is 34%


Read more at http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2018/06/how-to-survive-the-smallcap-crash-in-2018.html

My take:

- do not invest more than 3%in any stock
- keep min trailing SL of 10% from recent high

June 28, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.8% in negative at 10590
- AD was 1:2 (not bad)

- I will be discarding the falling channel from tomorrow

- option writing levels not clear to me (expiry)

When is risk the highest?

So many reasons to sell stocks

Your digital self — why you should keep every byte you create

From before you even wake up in the morning, your day is being encoded into digital data. Your phone understands when you are active versus when you are asleep. Social media sites know when you’ll make your first post and which triggers they can plant in your inbox to ensure you do. Soon, several device makers know you are listening to the morning news, as you do every weekday. 

Your search engine and many other services know that you are trying to make the perfect pancake for your kids. A number of databases are recording the fact that you are at home later than usual today and not requesting a ride anyplace. And this is all before you’ve put on your slippers.

Selling out your digital half

Those are just some of the most vivid examples of the personal data that continuously builds the digital representation of you. Inside your technology, applications work with the digital you to do other work on your behalf, optimize or manipulate the real-world you, or probably most frequently, sell you products and other things. While you may know that these digital representations are nothing like you, your opinion doesn’t really matter to those technologies that interact with your digital self.

The whole process of creating the digital self has mostly crept up on society without any widespread planning. Only a few decades ago, the digital self wasn’t much more than your email handle and the contents of your inbox. Today, your digital self spans everything from your text messages to your sexual preferences, your brand loyalties, your family’s pregnancy statuses, your point-to-point trips, your recent and upcoming job status, and many other significant and insignificant points in between.

Read more at https://medium.com/textileio/your-digital-self-why-you-should-keep-every-byte-you-create-3a73bf0b3eb1

Mohnish Pabrai: The Yellowstone Factor In Investing

Yellowstone represents just one of the many ugly outlying events that have an extremely low probability of occurring, but that does not mean that the odds are zero or that they can be ignored. Even the most seemingly resilient businesses, by their very nature, are very fragile temporary creations — and it would take a lot less than Yellowstone’s eruption to wipe them out. The Yellowstone Factor alone implies that there isn’t a single business on the planet whose future is assured.

Minimizing downside risk is the first step toward being a successful investor. As Warren Buffett succinctly puts it:

Read more at https://acquirersmultiple.com/2018/06/mohnish-pabrai-the-yellowstone-factor-in-investing

Is this a bull market?

Stocks at 52 week high:


Stocks at 52 week low: 

3PLAND - ABAN - ABCAPITAL - ABMINTLTD - ADANIPOWER - ADLABS - ADORWELD - ADVANIHOTR - AKSHARCHEM - ALANKIT -ALLCARGO - ALLSEC - ALPHAGEO - AMBER - ANANTRAJ - ANDHRABANK - APCL - APOLLO - ARCHIDPLY - ARCHIES - ARCOTECH - ARIES - ARIHANTSUPARROWGREEN - ARSHIYA - ASAL - ASHAPURMIN - ASHIANA - ASIANTILES - ATLANTA - ATLASCYCLE - ATULAUTO - AVTNPL - AXISCADES - AYMSYNTEXBALKRISHNA - BANARBEADS - BANKBARODA - BANKINDIA - BASML - BEL - BHEL - BINDALAGRO - BRIGADE - BRNL - BSL - CAPACITE - CEATLTD -CENTENKA - CENTUM - CGPOWER - CIMMCO - CLEDUCATE - COCHINSHIP - CUMMINSIND - CYBERTECH - DALMIABHA - DCAL - DECCANCE -DEEPAKFERT - DENABANK - DHANBANK - DHARSUGAR - DONEAR - DPSCLTD - DWARKESH - EDL - EIMCOELECO - ELECTCAST - ELGIRUBCO - EMKAY -EMMBI - ENGINERSIN - EON - EVEREADY - FAIRCHEM - FEDDERELEC - FIEMIND - FLEXITUFF - FORTUNEFIN - GALAXYSURF - GANESHHOUC -GARDENSILK - GATI - GENESYS - GEOJITFSL - GESHIP - GET&D - GILLANDERS - GINNIFILA - GIPCL - GLOBALVECT - GMDCLTD - GOCLCORP - GOKEX -GOKULAGRO - GPPL - GREENPLY - GSFC - GULPOLY - HAL - HBLPOWER - HCC - HCL-INSYS - HDIL - HGINFRA - HILTON - HIMATSEIDE - HINDCOMPOS -HINDNATGLS - HITECH - HMVL - HPL - HTMEDIA - IBREALEST - ICIL - IDBI - IDFC - IFCI - IGARASHI - IL&FSENGG - IL&FSTRANS - INDBANK - INDOCO -INDOSTAR - INDOTECH - INDTERRAIN - INEOSSTYRO - INTENTECH - IOB - ISEC - ISFT - ITDCEM - IVC - JAGRAN - JAYAGROGN - JBCHEPHARM - JBFIND -JETAIRWAYS - JHS - JINDALSAW - JINDRILL - JISLDVREQS - JISLJALEQS - JKLAKSHMI - JMFINANCIL - JPOLYINVST - JSL - JVLAGRO - KABRAEXTRU -KCPSUGIND - KECL - KESARENT - KIRLOSENG - KIRLOSIND - KKCL - KOHINOOR - KOTHARIPRO - KRBL - KRIDHANINF - KSL - KWALITY - LAKPRE -LAKSHMIEFL - LAMBODHARA - LEEL - LOTUSEYE - LOVABLE - LYPSAGEMS - MADHAV - MADHUCON - MAHABANK - MANAKCOAT - MANGLMCEM -MANINFRA - MARALOVER - MATRIMONY - MAXINDIA - MAXVIL - MBECL - MEP - METALFORGE - MINDTECK - MIRZAINT - MOHITIND - MOHOTAIND -MONNETISPA - MONTECARLO - MORARJEE - MOTHERSUMI - MOTILALOFS - MUKANDENGG - MUKTAARTS - NACLIND - NAGAFERT - NATIONALUM -NATNLSTEEL - NBCC - NCLIND - NECCLTD - NETWORK18 - NEULANDLAB - NFL - NHPC - NILAINFRA - NMDC - NTPC - OCL - OILCOUNTUB - OMMETALS -ONELIFECAP - ONGC - ORIENTBANK - ORISSAMINE - PALREDTEC - PARSVNATH - PATELENG - PATINTLOG - PEARLPOLY - PENPEBS - PETRONENGG -PFOCUS - PFS - PGEL - PILITA - PIONEEREMB - PNBGILTS - PODDARHOUS - PODDARMENT - PONNIERODE - POWERGRID - PRECOT - PREMEXPLN -PRICOLLTD - PROZONINTU - PRSMJOHNSN - PTC - PUNJLLOYD - RADIOCITY - RAJSREESUG - RALLIS - RAMCOIND - RECLTD - REFEX - RENUKA -ROLTA - RPOWER - RPPINFRA - RSSOFTWARE - RSYSTEMS - SALORAINTL - SANGAMIND - SANWARIA - SARLAPOLY - SATHAISPAT - SCHNEIDER - SCI -SGL - SHARDACROP - SHIVAMAUTO - SHREYANIND - SHRIRAMEPC - SHYAMTEL - SICAGEN - SIMPLEX - SINTEX - SNOWMAN - SOUTHBANK -SPICEMOBI - SPTL - SREINFRA - SRIPIPES - STARPAPER - SUNDARMHLD - SUPPETRO - SURYALAXMI - SUTLEJTEX - SWELECTES - SYNDIBANK -TALWALKARS - TATAMOTORS - TATAMTRDVR - TATAPOWER - TCIFINANCE - TECHNO - TEJASNET - TGBHOTELS - THEMISMED - THIRUSUGAR - TIL -TIMETECHNO - TMRVL - TNPL - TOKYOPLAST - TPLPLASTEH - TRIL - TWL - UFLEX - UJAAS - UNIONBANK - UNITEDBNK - UPL - VARDMNPOLY -VENUSREM - VETO - VIJAYABANK - WEBELSOLAR - XPROINDIA - ZEEMEDIA - ZICOM -

June 27, 2018

Many sell signals today

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| 8KMILES475.20-6.00%SELL10/05/18680.1530.13547.00632.007925101027
||||| ABAN OFFSHORE112.40-1.50%SELL14/05/18160.9030.14131.45147.001771401023
||||| ACE130.90-4.00%SELL21/05/18163.8020.09158.70169.001901602432
||||| AIA ENGINEERING1480.15-1.50%SELL18/06/181513.002.171602.751602.00162613922439
||||| ANDHRA BANK31.80-4.50%SELL26/04/1837.4014.9737.2038.0040331531
||||| APOLLO TYRE259.75-2.00%SELL11/05/18280.007.23277.75279.003012661934
||||| APTECHT226.90-3.50%SELL27/06/18226.900.00271.50284.002952171234
||||| ASHOK LEYLAND129.35-2.00%SELL18/05/18148.4012.84146.15152.001681321830
||||| AUBANK669.20-2.50%SELL27/06/18669.200.00732.75734.007336512239
||||| AXIS BANK507.85-1.00%SELL21/06/18513.051.01539.80551.005645152838
||||| BANK OF INDIA88.70-3.50%SELL25/06/1892.103.69103.85104.90109931432
||||| BF UTILITY318.00-3.00%SELL30/01/18481.5533.96368.75393.00445361928
||||| BHEL71.00-3.00%SELL04/05/1884.2515.7378.0084.9590741633
||||| BHUSANSTL31.75-4.50%SELL27/06/1831.750.0039.4546.9043212542
||||| BOSCHLTD17225.30-2.50%SELL08/05/1819024.359.4618374.5019137.0019700172501734
||||| BHARAT PETROLEUM382.80-7.50%SELL27/06/18382.800.00429.15429.004133602238
||||| CAPACITE264.35-3.50%SELL21/05/18297.8511.25315.80326.003652661933
||||| CEAT TYRES1258.30-3.50%SELL04/05/181506.6516.481379.651414.00165012841830
||||| CESC929.35-3.00%SELL05/06/18984.305.581009.901049.0010929942432
||||| CGPOWER50.20-8.00%SELL16/05/1876.0033.9558.3576.4584602228
||||| CONCOR606.40-2.50%SELL04/06/18656.657.65668.00700.007126592031
||||| DABUR INDIA393.501.50%BUY02/04/18335.9017.15377.30375.003893657866
||||| DALMIABHA2305.40-2.00%SELL24/05/182568.3010.242562.952804.00307225292029
||||| DBL735.75-5.00%SELL21/05/181085.2032.20861.00949.001248760823
||||| DLF191.85-1.50%SELL01/02/18245.0021.69208.45212.002241832537
||||| EDELWEISS289.05-1.50%SELL27/06/18289.050.00324.90334.003422711839
||||| EICHER MOTORS28371.85-2.00%SELL05/06/1829236.352.9630265.0031499.0031499291002237
||||| EROSMEDIA121.80-3.50%SELL02/02/18190.8536.18139.30157.001781152036
||||| ESCORTS856.35-2.50%SELL18/05/18876.402.29932.00958.0010188412235
||||| GODREJAGRO610.30-2.50%SELL09/05/18679.9510.24679.85679.007155871032
||||| HDIL20.25-4.00%SELL30/01/1858.3565.3023.4528.4535261426
||||| HINDUSTAN COPPER62.05-4.50%SELL21/05/1867.958.6873.7074.4077671032
||||| HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM276.60-7.50%SELL25/06/18298.957.48325.35325.003302721632
||||| HINDUSTAN ZINC273.40-1.50%SELL27/06/18273.400.00306.00306.00321281828
||||| ICICI BANK279.05-3.00%SELL27/06/18279.050.00302.70302.003182762640
||||| IFCI15.30-3.00%SELL02/02/1825.3539.6417.7518.4520162132
||||| INDIAGLYCO410.65-3.50%SELL16/05/18525.7521.89489.90524.006004901631
||||| IOC155.65-6.50%SELL19/03/18177.9012.51177.20177.001771511834
||||| IRB212.70-3.00%SELL18/05/18238.5010.82236.50242.002842231631
||||| JET AIRWAYS354.55-5.50%SELL24/01/18774.3554.21399.20429.006463701928
||||| JINDAL STEEL213.10-4.50%SELL23/05/18226.155.77250.90250.002652222335
||||| JSLHISAR138.75-4.50%SELL01/02/18193.0028.11165.50182.001921571528
||||| JSW STEEL318.30-1.00%SELL27/06/18318.300.00343.85346.003433072340
||||| KARNATAKA BANK110.95-3.00%SELL29/01/18149.5525.81121.85122.001251071735
||||| LARSEN & TOUBRO1232.75-2.50%SELL18/05/181315.556.291359.451396.00142513111126
||||| MANAPPURAM97.45-3.50%SELL15/05/18115.1015.33107.40110.001301052030
||||| MCX741.50-2.00%SELL27/06/18741.500.00828.85866.008737081636
||||| MEGHMANI ORGANICS LTD.76.80-6.50%SELL21/05/1897.1020.9195.4096.60114931530
||||| MFSL431.75-4.50%SELL05/06/18454.054.91487.00505.005324561733
||||| MOTILALOFS753.90-5.50%SELL18/01/181398.3046.08896.85925.0010009011124
||||| NBVENTURES129.15-3.00%SELL27/06/18129.150.00149.30168.001681201939
||||| NCC95.55-2.00%SELL10/05/18123.0522.35109.40125.50137972132
||||| NHPC24.20-2.00%SELL15/05/1826.709.3626.4527.1029261023
||||| NMDC105.90-1.50%SELL31/01/18140.3024.52116.95121.001261112432
||||| ORIENTAL BANK73.90-2.50%SELL02/02/18112.4034.2583.9086.9095741634
||||| POWER FINANCE CO75.60-6.00%SELL27/06/1875.600.0084.8085.9590711736
||||| PNB76.75-3.50%SELL25/06/1879.803.8293.1594.709674830
||||| PRAKASH149.15-5.00%SELL10/05/18186.5020.03177.35184.002181631030
||||| PTC INDIA76.40-3.00%SELL25/01/18110.8531.0887.0087.85100771231
||||| RAIN186.85-3.50%SELL01/02/18363.1048.54230.50244.003442182231
||||| RAYMOND909.45-4.50%SELL21/05/181007.659.751013.451025.0011539741329
||||| RELIANCE COM13.35-7.00%SELL29/01/1827.2050.9216.2521.0021101638
||||| REC LTD102.70-4.50%SELL02/02/18145.4029.37117.30121.001291081229
||||| RELIANCE INFRA395.40-5.50%SELL03/05/18413.604.40444.50447.004603751835
||||| RELIANCE POWER32.30-4.50%SELL31/01/1845.7529.4035.8537.8540321936
||||| RUCHISOYA11.30-4.50%SELL26/03/1816.4031.1014.2015.8516102439
||||| SADBHAV279.80-3.00%SELL02/02/18390.7528.39330.65357.003973401020
||||| SHAKTIPUMP478.80-5.50%SELL16/05/18630.6024.07549.70582.00764541927
||||| SOBHA467.85-2.00%SELL17/01/18567.9017.62510.05519.005554892334
||||| SUPREMEIND1154.70-2.50%SELL22/06/181219.005.271274.651351.00144812391029
||||| TATA MOTORS DVR161.85-2.00%SELL15/05/18180.9510.56185.95188.002021641331
||||| TATA POWER71.90-4.00%SELL10/05/1882.0012.3277.7583.2090752231
||||| TATA SPONGE1010.50-4.50%SELL21/05/181041.903.011145.001155.00114310321133
||||| TINPLATE160.05-4.50%SELL10/05/18214.2525.30182.45203.002371861729
||||| UNION BANK81.35-2.50%SELL01/12/17158.0048.5195.8096.9596821733
||||| UNITED PHOSPHORUS620.65-2.50%SELL30/04/18729.8514.96706.75716.007506731628
||||| VIKASECO20.60-11.00%SELL06/03/1832.1535.9325.3030.4537262533
||||| WELENT159.30-8.00%SELL27/06/18159.300.00201.00201.002031401133
||||| WELSPUN INDUSTRIES54.00-2.00%SELL27/06/1854.000.0059.8063.0069571633