- rangebound market
- break of prev day low did not generate selling
- note current level is close to 11000
July 31, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11074
- AD was flat
- market extremely flat
- net move since 20th JUL is 50 points (10 trading days)
- even then nifty is up 7.5% this month
- all gains happened in 7-8 trading days
- other days was just timepass
July 30, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in negative at 11102
- AD was 7:11
- upside is looking capped now
- resistance developing around 11300
- but as long as 11000 does not break, nothing to worry
- note markets have been extremely rangebound since 21-JUL
July 29, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 11202
- AD was 5:4
- last week's swing low is 11000
- this has emerged as a good support
- prev swing low is 10500
Are you a rent seeker?
"In a long career, I've (almost) never seen anyone get rich while employed (via bonuses/stock options, as w/bankers, CEOs, & rich slaves), & subsequently also make money on their own, in self employment. If you can't make it on your own, it's #rentseeking." - @nntaleb
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Wisdom (@TalebWisdom) July 28, 2020
July 28, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.5% in positive at 11300
- AD was flat (why?)
- VIX down 5%
- I am increasing swing low from 10500 to 11000
- good support at 11000
July 27, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11131.8
- AD was 2:5
- nifty is extremely rangebound
- key level is 11000 and then 11500
July 25, 2020
BANKNIFTY charts
- trend is up
- support 21000
- resistance 24000
- BNF is under performing nifty for some time now
July 24, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up
- today nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 11194
- AD was 1:2
- incidentally was a gap down day
- RELIANCE saved the market... it was up 4%
- range compression on daily charts seen
- breakout levels 11000-11250
July 23, 2020
S&P 500 historical PE ratio chart
- PE 26-27 is considered to be a strong sell
- but S&P 500 PE once reached 40 and later it hit 65
- both were abberations
- the first time was during the dot com rally and subsequent crash
- the next time was during the 2008 financial crisis when EPS dropped extremely fast but prices did not correct with same speed thus leading to an inflated PE
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11215
- AD was 5:4
- support 10500
Charts are voodoo science so what is the real purpose?
Charts have provided my livelihood for 45 years, but let me say this clearly
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 22, 2020
Charts do NOT accurately predict prices
Charting is voodoo science
Lines on charts are voodoo lines
Charts simply provide a way to set risk levels on a trade. Period!!
July 22, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed marginally in red at 11133
- AD was 4:5
- swing low support at 10500
- in JUNE nifty is up 8% but the ride is far from smooth
- looks very easy to trade if you have a 300-400 point SL
- there was some trades around 10805 in nifty futures
- this is some wild/ freak algo trade
July 21, 2020
New shorts target the exhaustion gap
#Nifty Spot chart pic.twitter.com/fEVKv0Po38
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) July 21, 2020
NIFTY intraday charts
5 min:
- best gains happened in overnight position
- small trading range
- stops just getting hit on 5 min charts but not on higher timeframes
15 min:
30 min:
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up
- today nifty closed 1.3% in positive at 11162
- AD was 5:4
- note most gains are overnight gains (gap up)
- actual trading range for the day is very small
- support 10500
July 20, 2020
NIFTY intraday charts
5 min:
- did not trade due to login issues with upstox
- seems this was a widespread problem
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- reversal level 10500
- today nifty closed 1.1% in positive at 11022
- AD was 11:7
- 11000 is a big round number
- some volatility can happen around these levels
- no weakness seen in market
Just take some risk and start a business
No, do not join an NGO to save the world. Just take risks, start a business.https://t.co/VxH5qJ03XA pic.twitter.com/taRzkoCSfw
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 4, 2017
July 18, 2020
NIFTY weekly charts
- huge hanging man + outside bar formed
- weakness below 10500 only
- above 11000, gains upto 11600 possible
BANKNIFTY charts
- index is trading sideways even as nifty is trending up
- this index has been very weak and has violated rising wedge
- however the expected crash has not happened
- on 15 min charts, we have a buy signal
- support 21600 resistance 22600-23000
July 17, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty closes 1.5% in positive at 10902
- AD was 2:1
- close was at weekly high
- big outside bar formed + hanging man
- till 10500 breaks, we will assume trend is up
July 16, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- NIFTY closed 1.1% in positive at 10740
- AD was 7:11
- VIX dropped 3% to 25.4
- all action within rising wedge
Nifty below 10700–A Pause or a Crack ?
- A classical Candle Reversal with a big down tick today.
- RSI has started showing Divergence after being overbought.
- The last intermediate top at 10550 and Gap at 10450-10500.
- Trendline support at 10400-10450.
- The short term trend has changed and will break the higher top higher bottom structure when it breaks at 10200.
- Targets on downside 10450-10500 and 10200-10250. Stoploss now should be at 10760.
- For now it looks like a pause with 10200/10450 to act as support. Review further when it breaks 10200.
- Broader market may turn down only on a break below 10200. Till that time continue to look for stock specific action.
July 15, 2020
NIFTY intraday charts
5 min:
- missed long trade due to some issue with option prices
- took short trade on break of 10750
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10612
- AD was 8:11
- we had an gapup opening and cross above prev day' high
- but this was sold into and nifty corrected fast
- close was slightly near prev day low
- this action hints at more downside if 10500 breaks
- this will also break the lower trendline of the rising wedge
July 14, 2020
NIFTY intraday charts
5 min:
- a nice trending day after 5-6 days of lots of "tiny losses"
- a 100 point move captured without any whipsaw
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty closes 1.8% in negative at 10607
- AD was 1:3
- VIX up 6%
- past 6 days, markets were trading in a very small range
- volatility expansion happened today and markets broke the low of the range
- persistently high PE was a worrying cause and
- AD was not supporting uptrend
- looking forward, lower trendline of rising wedge to give support
- this will break
- break of 10500 will lead to bigger fall
July 13, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 10815
- AD was 4:5
- intraday breakout from range highs failed
- intraday weakness was due to BANKNIFTY which closed 1.3% in red
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