November 30, 2018

Climate change scientists - Intellectual yet Idiots




The Intellectual Yet Idiot


What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.

But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligentsia” can’t find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they aren’t intelligent enough to define intelligence hence fall into circularities — but their main skill is capacity to pass exams written by people like them. With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30 years of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3 of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers (or Montaigne and such filtered classical knowledge) with a better track record than these policymaking goons.

Read more at https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10877
- AD was flat

- 5 stocks made 52 week high while 87 stocks made 52 week lows... not good

- separate post on open interest later in the evening

November 29, 2018

Ratings is the biggest scandal going - sab golmaal hai

The market regulator has specified that mutual funds have to buy only highly rated paper. So, how did the fund companies manage it? With pliant rating agencies, this is no problem. The ratings have been rated AAA by the same ratings agency, CARE, which also rated the Rana Kapoor’s structure as AAA. Commenting on this a very high net worth investor says “ratings is the biggest scandal going.”

This structure of using public funds for lending against the promoters’ holding is fraught with huge risks. The mutual funds are holding a debt paper of the holding company with no other assets and no capital worth speaking of. They have no recourse to the shares of the promoters either—the only asset of the holding company—because these are not pledged to the mutual funds. The promoters are free to sell them. If they do, funds have no recourse.

Read more at https://www.moneylife.in/article/mutual-funds-have-also-lent-to-dhfl-promoters-holding-company-just-like-yes-banks-rana-kapoor/55811.html

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 28-NOV-2018 
ABB
ABB chart

November 28, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10729
- AD was 6:11

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10800

Figure out what will ruin you - risk management - golden words




November 27, 2018

Long term nifty chart by Peter L Brandt




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.5% in positive at 10686
- AD was slightly negative at 8:9
- option writing support 10500

Will H&S on NIFTY 50 play out?




Options Theory for Professional Trading

  • 489.

    1. Call Option Basics

    1.1– Breaking the Ice As with any of the previous modules in Varsity, we will again make the same old assumption that you are new to options and therefore know nothing about options. For this reason ..
  • 249.

    2. Basic Option Jargons

    2.1– Decoding the basic jargons In the previous chapter, we understood the basic call option structure. The idea of the previous chapter was to capture a few essential ‘Call Option’ concepts suc ..
  • 553.

    3. Buying a Call Option

    3.1 – Buying call option In the previous chapters we looked at the basic structure of a call option and understood the broad context under which it makes sense to buy a call option. In this chapter, ..
  • 1,115.

    4. Selling/Writing a Call Option

    4.1 – Two sides of the same coin Do you remember the 1975 Bollywood super hit flick ‘Deewaar’, which attained a cult status for the incredibly famous ‘Mere paas maa hai’ dialogue ☺? The mo ..

How the brain reads/ interprets words

November 26, 2018

Mumbai Univ BMS - derivatives paper

- nice to see students have a very comprehensive course on F&O
- wonder how many of them will take up trading as an occupation
- all they need to master is discipline and risk management

- the paper is relatively easy as complicated option strategies like iron condors, butterfly spreads, straddles and strangles etc was not asked.







Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1% in positive at 10628
- AD was 7:10

- option writing support jumps to 10500
- this has bullish implications

- expecting resistance in the region 10800-10900

FTSE going up on bad news? no correlation


Bear Trap? Nice charts (US markets)

Excellent presentation on #SME investing

Strongly recommended for the case studies...

Link: http://alphaideas.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SMEInvesting.pdf

Sitting idle and doing nothing is very difficult in stock markets

% returns required to recover loss

November 23, 2018

BANKNIFTY charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- prev resistance at 25880 to provide support
- previous swing low 25400

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- not much buying or strength seen past 1-2 weeks

- probable H&S on weekly charts with neckline at 10000
- is the right shoulder being formed?

- below 10400... more downsides possible



November 22, 2018

How a rules-based system can help you become a successful trader

There are many ways of trading at the markets and all of them are good.  Conversely, there is no one strategy that can be considered the best over a long period of time. The key to success is consistency. 

You will find this common with all successful traders; they are consistent with their core methods. Define your core strategy and practice it consistently. Overcoming all noise and sticking to the one is a key to achieve consistent success in markets.

There are many distractions that will influence you to lose focus. It is very important that you have a set of rules and a trading plan. In the long run, a disciplined trader would outperform well informed or intelligent traders.

By setting up a process, we end up managing the risk and the markets will take care of rewards automatically.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/how-a-rules-based-system-can-help-you-become-a-successful-trader-3208801.html

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in negative at 10527
- AD was 7:10
- this is 3rd day of lower high lower low

- swing low at 10400

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10700

Half of existing ATMs may shut down across India by March 2019: ATM body

CATMi said that its members, which include the ATM managed service providers (MSPs), brown-label ATM deployers (BLAs) and White Label ATM (WLAs) operators, are already reeling under the financial impact caused by huge losses during and post-demonetisation as cash supply was impacted and remained inconsistent for months.

The situation has further deteriorated now due to the additional compliance requirements that call for a huge cost outlay. The service providers do not have the financial means to meet such massive costs and may be forced to shut down these ATMs, unless banks step in to bear the load of the additional cost of compliances.

CATMi added that revenues from providing ATMs as a service are not growing at all due to very low ATM interchange and ever-increasing costs. CATMi estimates an additional outlay of about Rs 3,500 crore – only for complying with the new cash logistics and cassette swap method. These requirements were never anticipated by the industry participants at the time of signing contracts with the banks. Many of these agreements were inked four to five years ago when no such requirements were in sight.

These compliance costs may also see the 15,000-plus WLAs going out of business, it further said.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/half-of-indias-atms-may-close-down-by-march-19-warns-catmi-3205451.html

November 21, 2018

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 21-NOV-2018 
BAJAJFINSV
BAJAJFINSV chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.5% in negative at 10600
- AD was flat

- swing low 10400

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10700

What Indian billionaires can learn from Michael Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York and a potential 2020 presidential candidate, has just donated $1.8 billion to Johns Hopkins University, the largest ever contribution to a US academic institution. That’s on top of the $1.5 billion he’s already gifted to his alma mater.

The research institution, already one of the best in the world, will use the money to provide financial aid to its undergraduate students from lower- and middle-income backgrounds.

No such act of generosity has been visible in India despite its 131 billionaires and countless millionaires. India’s rich have many passions—yachts, horses, cars, planes, even airlines and big fat Indian weddings. But institution building isn’t quite their thing.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/Companies/31ZLKTdAqeNyUYNb0QtI9I/What-Indian-billionaires-can-learn-from-Michael-Bloomberg.html

PMO wants SEBI to probe September market crash

What is the use? You cannot pinpoint routine market corrections on any individual or entity.

If a correction does not happen in any market, how will weak players be replaced by stronger players? Or how will markets form supports?

And in any correction, some stocks will always lose 30-50%.



Read more at https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/pmo-wants-sebi-to-probe-september-market-crash/article25551400.ece

FAANG stocks have lost a $ 1 trillion recently

Forecasts go wrong very often but still offers trading opportunity

November 20, 2018

My inverted H&S on SP500 may go for a toss!


Algostudio 2.0 – Amibroker AutoTrading Bridge for Upstox API Users

Algostudio is a simple and clean user interface which is built on top of Upstox REST API with a large feature set, helping you to automate your quantitative trading who is looking to streamline their processes through automation and effective management of their day-to-day trading activities. 

Algostudio converts amibroker trading signals to automated orders. It is a single interface where provisions are made to execute and monitor your trade positions at one single place.

Features of Algostudio

Supports Automated Trading.
Supports Bracket and Cover Orders.
Supports Place Order/Order Modification/Order Cancellation (Limit/Market/StopLoss/Bracket/Cover).
Close remaining positions from Amibro

Read more at https://www.marketcalls.in/algostudio/introduction-to-algostudio-2-0-amibroker-autotrading-bridge-for-upstox-api-users.html

NIFTY futures 30 min charts

- on 2nd NOV, NF was around 10600
- today i.e. 20th NOV, NF is at 10665
- a net move of only 65 points in 18 days (calendar)

- extremely rangebound market
- this happens once in a while in every market and losses will be high as signals fail

- I am showing charts with different indicator settings


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets opened gap down
- NF closed 15 in negative at 10656
- AD was 5:13

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10800
- today was first day where OI in call was highest

The patterns don't make you a successful trader

The patterns themselves don't make you a successful trader. The moving average crossover doesn't make you a successful trader. The RSI, stochastic, ATR double-hitched backflip twist doesn't make you a successful trader. All these tools are just for your comfort – a way for you to feel in control and as such allow you to participate in the market. That's okay.

What makes you a successful trader is how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose. It won't matter what instrument you decide to use to trade. The same basic trading principle can be used in every market in the world – stocks, futures, commodities, ETF's and foreign exchange – and on every time frame from three-minute charts right through to weekly and monthly charts. The same expectancy will be required anywhere in order to be profitable.

Source: Successful stock trading by Nick Radge

How to manage stress of positions in trading Q&A by @SubhadipNandy




November 19, 2018

Marathon RBI meeting?

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (from today)
- this is the first buy signal after the correction
- immediate SL/ swing low 10400
- AD was flat (slightly positive)

- expecting very strong resistance around 10900 levels and then 11000

- option writing support 10000

How to help others or save the world




November 18, 2018

Diary of an option trader @KatariyaPran

Professional Trading is a full time job- and full time includes after Market hours and Weekends.

You can only do it if you have a passion for it really enjoy it.



Read more at https://twitter.com/KatariyaPran ...  strongly recommended for option traders.

Scalping at its best




Optionsellers.com goes bust selling deep OTM options








Open positions

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Adding 10-15 more stocks this weekend

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StockClose% ChangeBought atBuy DateRemarksTrailing StoplossReturns %
ADANIPORTS347.450.3634615/11/2018Hold long positions3200.36
AXISBANK619.80-1.0161813/11/2018Hold long positions6000.24
CUMMINSIND795.95-2.5881715/11/2018Hold long positions770-2.58
EMAMILTD461.300.2146015/11/2018Hold long positions4100.21
HAVELLS674.20-1.7366613/11/2018Hold long positions6401.21
HDFC1889.001.91182513/11/2018Hold long positions17803.52
HINDUNILVR1689.10-0.99167113/11/2018Hold long positions16201.08
ICICIBANK367.55-0.6636113/11/2018Hold long positions3401.84
LICHSGFIN453.35-2.7146615/11/2018Hold long positions420-2.71
LT1399.050.04139113/11/2018Hold long positions13400.57
MARUTI7341.20-1.83736914/11/2018Hold long positions7020-0.38
MCDOWELL-N647.100.5464814/11/2018Hold long positions620-0.13
PFC101.35-6.0310815/11/2018Hold long positions98-6.03
PIDILITIND1118.900.96106313/11/2018Hold long positions10005.23
TITAN921.350.0689813/11/2018Hold long positions8402.66
UPL771.851.0776014/11/2018Hold long positions7101.53


November 16, 2018

Only the close matters




Expanding triangle on NIFTY hourly charts

- upper trendline is giving stiff resistance at higher levels
- in last 8-10 days, NF has not gained 100 points peak to peak.

- will lower trendline be tested once more?
- if yes, then correction possible to 10400 levels.

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.6% in positive at 10682
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 10000

S Gurumurthy' view on banking and economy are very scary




Read more at https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1063060543173386242

PMS performance OCT 18



Source: whatsapp forward

November 15, 2018

Buy signal on BANKNIFTY

SL last 2-3 weeks low



And with kplswing indiacator

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10617
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 10000
- big addition in 10600 PE

November 13, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets opened gap down but closed 1% in positive
- "bullish piercing" formation seen
- AD was flat
- VIX down 5%

- option writing support 10000

The Moody’s curse on the Indian economy

Almost a year ago, ratings company Moody’s Investors Service Inc. upgraded India’s sovereign debt rating, making India only the second large emerging market (among emerging markets in the G20 group of economies) to have improved its rating in the past five years. Since then, only one more major economy, Argentina, has been upgraded by Moody’s while two others— Turkey and Italy—have been downgraded.

India, meanwhile, has witnessed a massive exodus of foreign investors since the upgrade. According to data sourced from the Institute of International Finance Inc. (IIF), India has witnessed the sharpest non-resident portfolio outflows (equities and debt combined) among major emerging market (EM) economies over the past year.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/Politics/cDK6jVFWU1QlvcJfBffl1N/The-Moodys-curse-on-the-Indian-economy.html

Bearish H&S on S&P 500 on weekly charts?

- right shoulder is being formed
- problems only if 2600 breaks


Goldman's 'bear market risk indicator' signals returns will be zero the next 12 months

Goldman Sachs's bear market prediction tool is at an "elevated" level that has historically signaled a zero average return over the next 12 months and a "substantial" risk of drawdown.

Goldman's bear market indicator — which takes into account the unemployment rate, manufacturing data, core inflation, the term structure of the yield curve and stock valuation based on the Shiller PE ratio — is at a rare 73 percent, its highest level since the late 1960s and early 1970s.

The indicator is "flashing red," wrote Goldman chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer. "Historically, when the Indicator rises above 60 percent it is a good signal to investors to turn cautious, or at the very least recognize that a correction followed by a rally is more likely to be followed by a bear market than when these indicators are low."

Read more at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/goldmans-bear-market-indicator-shows-zero-returns-over-next-year.html

Inverted H&S on S&P 500 on daily charts?

- neckline drawn
- difficult to draw arcs or curves to show the rest of H&S


November 12, 2018

FnO stocks

Long build up: 

CUMMINSIND-fut - DHFL-fut - MGL-fut - NIITTECH-fut - REPCOHOME-fut - TATASTEEL-FUT - WOCKPHARMA-fut -

Long unwinding: 

BANKINDIA-FUT - BATAINDIA-fut - BPCL-FUT - DIVISLAB-FUT - HCC-fut - HEXAWARE-fut - HINDALCO-FUT - JUSTDIAL-fut - ORIENTBANK-FUT - PCJEWELLER-fut - RECLTD-FUT - TATAMOTORS-FUT -

Short build up: 

DALMIABHA-fut - DCBBANK-fut - GSFC-fut - HINDPETRO-FUT - JINDALSTEL-FUT - RELINFRA-FUT - SIEMENS-FUT - TATAELXSI-fut - VEDL-fut -

Short covering: 

BALKRISIND-fut - KOTAKBANK-FUT - TATAGLOBAL-fut -

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- after 3-4 days of rangebound movement, markets closed 1% in negative at 10482
- AD was 6:11
- VIX up 9%
- option writing support 10000

- H&S formation: if correct, then right shoulder is being formed... support 10200

Strong bear move ahead ?




November 11, 2018