November 20, 2018

My inverted H&S on SP500 may go for a toss!


Algostudio 2.0 – Amibroker AutoTrading Bridge for Upstox API Users

Algostudio is a simple and clean user interface which is built on top of Upstox REST API with a large feature set, helping you to automate your quantitative trading who is looking to streamline their processes through automation and effective management of their day-to-day trading activities. 

Algostudio converts amibroker trading signals to automated orders. It is a single interface where provisions are made to execute and monitor your trade positions at one single place.

Features of Algostudio

Supports Automated Trading.
Supports Bracket and Cover Orders.
Supports Place Order/Order Modification/Order Cancellation (Limit/Market/StopLoss/Bracket/Cover).
Close remaining positions from Amibro

Read more at https://www.marketcalls.in/algostudio/introduction-to-algostudio-2-0-amibroker-autotrading-bridge-for-upstox-api-users.html

NIFTY futures 30 min charts

- on 2nd NOV, NF was around 10600
- today i.e. 20th NOV, NF is at 10665
- a net move of only 65 points in 18 days (calendar)

- extremely rangebound market
- this happens once in a while in every market and losses will be high as signals fail

- I am showing charts with different indicator settings


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets opened gap down
- NF closed 15 in negative at 10656
- AD was 5:13

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10800
- today was first day where OI in call was highest

The patterns don't make you a successful trader

The patterns themselves don't make you a successful trader. The moving average crossover doesn't make you a successful trader. The RSI, stochastic, ATR double-hitched backflip twist doesn't make you a successful trader. All these tools are just for your comfort – a way for you to feel in control and as such allow you to participate in the market. That's okay.

What makes you a successful trader is how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose. It won't matter what instrument you decide to use to trade. The same basic trading principle can be used in every market in the world – stocks, futures, commodities, ETF's and foreign exchange – and on every time frame from three-minute charts right through to weekly and monthly charts. The same expectancy will be required anywhere in order to be profitable.

Source: Successful stock trading by Nick Radge

How to manage stress of positions in trading Q&A by @SubhadipNandy




November 19, 2018

Marathon RBI meeting?

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (from today)
- this is the first buy signal after the correction
- immediate SL/ swing low 10400
- AD was flat (slightly positive)

- expecting very strong resistance around 10900 levels and then 11000

- option writing support 10000

How to help others or save the world




November 18, 2018

Diary of an option trader @KatariyaPran

Professional Trading is a full time job- and full time includes after Market hours and Weekends.

You can only do it if you have a passion for it really enjoy it.



Read more at https://twitter.com/KatariyaPran ...  strongly recommended for option traders.

Scalping at its best




Optionsellers.com goes bust selling deep OTM options








Open positions

-->
Adding 10-15 more stocks this weekend

-->
StockClose% ChangeBought atBuy DateRemarksTrailing StoplossReturns %
ADANIPORTS347.450.3634615/11/2018Hold long positions3200.36
AXISBANK619.80-1.0161813/11/2018Hold long positions6000.24
CUMMINSIND795.95-2.5881715/11/2018Hold long positions770-2.58
EMAMILTD461.300.2146015/11/2018Hold long positions4100.21
HAVELLS674.20-1.7366613/11/2018Hold long positions6401.21
HDFC1889.001.91182513/11/2018Hold long positions17803.52
HINDUNILVR1689.10-0.99167113/11/2018Hold long positions16201.08
ICICIBANK367.55-0.6636113/11/2018Hold long positions3401.84
LICHSGFIN453.35-2.7146615/11/2018Hold long positions420-2.71
LT1399.050.04139113/11/2018Hold long positions13400.57
MARUTI7341.20-1.83736914/11/2018Hold long positions7020-0.38
MCDOWELL-N647.100.5464814/11/2018Hold long positions620-0.13
PFC101.35-6.0310815/11/2018Hold long positions98-6.03
PIDILITIND1118.900.96106313/11/2018Hold long positions10005.23
TITAN921.350.0689813/11/2018Hold long positions8402.66
UPL771.851.0776014/11/2018Hold long positions7101.53


November 16, 2018

Only the close matters




Expanding triangle on NIFTY hourly charts

- upper trendline is giving stiff resistance at higher levels
- in last 8-10 days, NF has not gained 100 points peak to peak.

- will lower trendline be tested once more?
- if yes, then correction possible to 10400 levels.

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.6% in positive at 10682
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 10000

S Gurumurthy' view on banking and economy are very scary




Read more at https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1063060543173386242

PMS performance OCT 18



Source: whatsapp forward

November 15, 2018

Buy signal on BANKNIFTY

SL last 2-3 weeks low



And with kplswing indiacator

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10617
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 10000
- big addition in 10600 PE

November 13, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets opened gap down but closed 1% in positive
- "bullish piercing" formation seen
- AD was flat
- VIX down 5%

- option writing support 10000

The Moody’s curse on the Indian economy

Almost a year ago, ratings company Moody’s Investors Service Inc. upgraded India’s sovereign debt rating, making India only the second large emerging market (among emerging markets in the G20 group of economies) to have improved its rating in the past five years. Since then, only one more major economy, Argentina, has been upgraded by Moody’s while two others— Turkey and Italy—have been downgraded.

India, meanwhile, has witnessed a massive exodus of foreign investors since the upgrade. According to data sourced from the Institute of International Finance Inc. (IIF), India has witnessed the sharpest non-resident portfolio outflows (equities and debt combined) among major emerging market (EM) economies over the past year.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/Politics/cDK6jVFWU1QlvcJfBffl1N/The-Moodys-curse-on-the-Indian-economy.html

Bearish H&S on S&P 500 on weekly charts?

- right shoulder is being formed
- problems only if 2600 breaks


Goldman's 'bear market risk indicator' signals returns will be zero the next 12 months

Goldman Sachs's bear market prediction tool is at an "elevated" level that has historically signaled a zero average return over the next 12 months and a "substantial" risk of drawdown.

Goldman's bear market indicator — which takes into account the unemployment rate, manufacturing data, core inflation, the term structure of the yield curve and stock valuation based on the Shiller PE ratio — is at a rare 73 percent, its highest level since the late 1960s and early 1970s.

The indicator is "flashing red," wrote Goldman chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer. "Historically, when the Indicator rises above 60 percent it is a good signal to investors to turn cautious, or at the very least recognize that a correction followed by a rally is more likely to be followed by a bear market than when these indicators are low."

Read more at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/goldmans-bear-market-indicator-shows-zero-returns-over-next-year.html

Inverted H&S on S&P 500 on daily charts?

- neckline drawn
- difficult to draw arcs or curves to show the rest of H&S


November 12, 2018

FnO stocks

Long build up: 

CUMMINSIND-fut - DHFL-fut - MGL-fut - NIITTECH-fut - REPCOHOME-fut - TATASTEEL-FUT - WOCKPHARMA-fut -

Long unwinding: 

BANKINDIA-FUT - BATAINDIA-fut - BPCL-FUT - DIVISLAB-FUT - HCC-fut - HEXAWARE-fut - HINDALCO-FUT - JUSTDIAL-fut - ORIENTBANK-FUT - PCJEWELLER-fut - RECLTD-FUT - TATAMOTORS-FUT -

Short build up: 

DALMIABHA-fut - DCBBANK-fut - GSFC-fut - HINDPETRO-FUT - JINDALSTEL-FUT - RELINFRA-FUT - SIEMENS-FUT - TATAELXSI-fut - VEDL-fut -

Short covering: 

BALKRISIND-fut - KOTAKBANK-FUT - TATAGLOBAL-fut -

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- after 3-4 days of rangebound movement, markets closed 1% in negative at 10482
- AD was 6:11
- VIX up 9%
- option writing support 10000

- H&S formation: if correct, then right shoulder is being formed... support 10200

Strong bear move ahead ?




November 11, 2018

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 09-NOV-2018 
ASIANPAINT
ASIANPAINT chart

Changes in options service

I have modified the options trading service. The hedging part has been removed and now the trade is a  simple buy only trade (call or put depending on the trend).

The reason for sudden change is many people could not manage the pair trading and this increased the possibility of losses. Some people also misunderstood the service as something which will create regular monthly income (how?)

The new options page is at https://www.vfmdirect.in/p/nifty-options-service.html

Subscription fees are reduced to Rs.3000/- pm.

Existing clients who have paid Rs.4500/- for one month will get an additional month free.

November 10, 2018

H&S formation on NIFTY charts

Disclaimer: 
- these are just patterns forming in my mind.... market cares a damn about what I see or think.
- to make money, it is not necessary to know these patterns
- in fact, it is not necessary to know anything (eg. politicians)

Here is how the weekly charts look like:
- bearish H&S being formed
- neckline at 10000
- right shoulder being formed
- max height 11150
- break of 10000 to result in more downsides
- target is immaterial

November 9, 2018

India has no need to be afraid of coalitions.

How do we explain that on the economic, internal security and strategic fronts, India's unstable coalitions have acted more decisively and boldly than all our full-majority governments yet?

We aren't a country of a billion-plus nut-cases. We are simply a good, buzzing democracy, run by responsible, hard-working, and thick-skinned, politicians. They aren't perfect. But they know what is good for them.

They want to win elections, and, once they have the power, don't want to lose it. If the economy grows, there is public peace, a sense of security, a happy people will re-elect them.

A coalition is unstable, but it forces our leaders to negotiate, trade for space, listen to others, fish in a larger talent pool. A secure, majority government makes politicians complacent, arrogant and create unsustainable personality cults.

From Indira to Rajiv to Modi, that is the lesson of our political history. India has no need to be afraid of coalitions.

Read more at http://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-ajit-doval-is-wrong/20181109.htm


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10585
- AD was slightly positive
- option writing support 10000

Probability of getting fooled

Confidence in face of several mistakes

Interesting news from the past




Sack the entire RBI team? Interesting discussion on twitter





November 6, 2018

Market outlook with many charts

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10530
- AD was flat
- VIX down 5%

- option writing support 10000

- Happy Diwali to everyone...  Next update on markets will be on Friday.

November 5, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.2% in negative at 10528
- AD was flat

- gap down opening due to global factors did not lead to any big selloff

- option writing support 10000

The upside of protecting the downside

The trick in investing is not to lose money

That’s the most important thing. If you compound your money at 12% a year, you’re better off than investor who make 25% in one year and lose 20% next year, who have some great years and horrible losses in others. The losses will kill you. They ruin the compounding rate and compounding is the magic of investing.

Most investors give more attention on capturing upside while completely ignoring the importance of
protecting downside. The bigger the investment loss, the greater the gain required to break even.

High risk = high return is true for individual securities, but not for a portfolio. This is a common misconception among investors. Risk-Reward has a positive correlation, but it’s not perfect. Risky securities are diversifiable by lower-correlated or negative-correlated securities. By buying low-correlated securities to hedge your risky security, are you lowering your upside? No. You’re lowering your downside.

You can’t predict. You can Prepare

You don’t know when markets will fall so best way is to be prepared as if that fall comes tomorrow. I am penning down some easy ways to protect downside for your portfolio:


Read more at https://themfguy.wordpress.com/2018/11/04/the-upside-of-protecting-downside

Another volatile day today.... levels to watch

People who watched, studied, understood video posted yesterday will profit today.

November 4, 2018

Video: Best Price Action Trading Strategy That Will Change The Way You Trade

What The Looming Bear Market Might Look Like

Reuters wants you to assume the stock market correction on Wall Street has entered into a full-blown bear market.

Their equity analyst then asks: What kind of bear market can we expect?

As shown below, all bear markets are not equal, they come in different shapes and sizes, but are less frequent than bull markets and, on average, much shorter. They can be very damaging if counter-cyclical buffers via the government or central banks are not properly deployed.

Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-03/what-looming-bear-market-might-look

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 02-NOV-2018 
AMARAJABAT
AMARAJABAT chart

Manish Dewan: An option seller with a quiver full of trading strategies

Option selling is considered a big boys game and it surely is given the margin required to sell one. Retail traders generally do not like to sell options due to the margin requirement but also because of the myth that option selling entails unlimited risk. But risk management is the key to success in any form of trading. No wonder then the option sellers are level headed and successful.


Even in the elite club of option sellers, most traders stick to a limited number of non-directional strategies. They stick to those with a high probability of success. They are happily taking the singles with higher frequency rather than aiming for the fences.

Manish Dewan can be considered the all-rounder of option sellers. He is as comfortable taking directional trades as he is in taking non-directional ones. He is equally at comfort trading a strangle or straddle as he is creating credit and debit spreads or attempting the more exotic ones like a Jade Lizard.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/manish-dewan-an-option-seller-with-a-quiver-full-of-trading-strategies-3125641.html

November 3, 2018

Trump continues to break records and deliver on his promises @realDonaldTrump

Is the most hated President  likely to be the best ever?



Read more at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-created-250000-jobs-in-oct-vs-190000-jobs-expected.html

Upcoming election schedule

- useless information for system traders



Source: twitter

CNX MIDCAP chart

- trend is down
- resistance 17800

CNX IT charts

- trend is down

NSE Advance Decline Line

- all rallies sold into this year
- don't know how long this will continue

NIFTY PE chart


BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- index trading in a range for quite some time
- strong resistance 26000
- support 23600

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down on weekly charts
- support at 10000
- as expected, bulls defended this level strongly
- nifty gained 5% this week

- now expecting resistance around 11000

- possible H&S development... right shoulder being formed
- problems only if 10000 breaks otherwise nothing to worry

November 2, 2018

Only buy signals today... and all first time

- which signals will work? which will fail?
- I don't know... not possible to know
- safest stocks are the ones which have corrected the least this year
- or are trading near lifetime highs

- another approach - invest only 2% of capital per trade. What is the worst what can happen?


Stock nameCloseChange20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month's52 week
TrendDateFixed SLTrailing SLHighLowHighLow
||||| AMARAJABAT790.805.50%BUY02/11/18729.00704.05783704908665
||||| AXISBANK610.651.00%BUY02/11/18534.55534.55618535678481
||||| BERGEPAINT304.404.00%BUY02/11/18260.00260.00296260350232
||||| BHARATFORG607.254.50%BUY02/11/18541.05541.05629541798541
||||| CENTURYTEX852.201.50%BUY02/11/18718.05718.058417181471718
||||| CROMPTON218.301.00%BUY02/11/18190.00190.00222190295190
||||| DMART1462.507.00%BUY02/11/181125.751125.751421112616801060
||||| HDFC1824.403.50%BUY02/11/181644.501644.501819164420531641
||||| HINDUNILVR1638.451.50%BUY02/11/181522.001477.201652147718091226
||||| IDEA40.604.50%BUY02/11/1834.1532.55393311933
||||| MARICO338.055.50%BUY02/11/18295.10282.95342283388283
||||| MFSL407.151.50%BUY02/11/18353.80350.00417350611350
||||| MRF66480.802.50%BUY02/11/1860666.0059601.0064960596018142659601
||||| NATCOPHARM774.752.00%BUY02/11/18660.00636.007636361050636
||||| PIIND800.601.00%BUY02/11/18696.00675.607976761034676
||||| TATACHEM696.151.00%BUY02/11/18652.50622.00697622788622

Get this report everyday by email. Click here for more info.