June 30, 2016

Breaking: FTSE recovers all losses after Brexit

Option writers win again

Option writers win again as Nifty closes between 8000 and 8300 this series.

Levels for next series: 8000-8500 - let's see... levels tend to be dynamic so track these from time to time.

NTPC breakouts continue

JSWSTEEL new lifetime high... still bullish. SL 1350

GRASIM still looking good on charts

DR REDDY breakout

NIFTY / BANKNIFTY monthly charts

The month is over so here are the monthly charts.

As can be seen, the formation of higher high and higher lows is intact.

We had a hammer this month so holding 7900, markets should be fine.

Expect resistance around 8500-8600 levels and then 9000.

BANK NIFTY charts: similar to NIFTY... no surprises here.

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- markets showing good gains past few days
- now NF is at pre-Brexit levels; this is true of most other global indices also
- today, AD was positive, VIX flat
- above 8300, expect rally to 8500
- support next series 8000 to hold

Inverted H&S on weekly FTSE chart

June 29, 2016

NILKAMAL bullish if 1100 holds

INDIACEM gives breakout above this year's high

GNFC breakout ... stock already up 84% this year

CONCOR reattempting breakout

BOSCH breakout

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- worst fears already discounted now
- support 8000 resistance 8500 (JUL series)
- so just relax and buy/ hold good stocks with SL.

Some reasons BREXIT is good

In a variety of imperfect ways, Brexit promoted liberty, community, democracy and the rule of law. In short, the good guys won.
Here are some  reasons why the United Kingdom was better off Brexiting: 
1. Average folks took on the commanding heights of politics, business, journalism and academia and triumphed. Obviously, the “little guy” isn’t always right, but the fact he can win demonstrates that a system whose pathways remain open to those the Bible refer to as “the least of these.” The wealthiest, best-organized and most publicized factions don’t always win.
2. Told to choose between economic bounty and self-governance, a majority of Britons chose the latter.It’s a false choice in this case, but people recognized that the sum of human existence is not material. The problem is not just the decisions previously taken away from those elected to govern the UK; it’s also the decisions that would have been taken away in the future had “Remain” won.
3. Those governed decided that they should make fundamental decisions about who would rule over them.The Eurocrats, a gaggle of politicians, bureaucrats, journalists, academics, lobbyists and businessmen were determined to achieve their ends no matter what the European people thought. A constitution rejected? Use a treaty. A treaty rejected? Vote again. A busted monetary union? Force a political union. And never, ever consult the public. No longer, said the British.

June 28, 2016

MRF charts

- stock trending down
- good support around 31000
- bullish if stock can sustain above 34000


- stock trading sideways
- good support around 18000
- bullish if stock can sustain above 19250

HCLTECH weekly chart - trend down

GODREJPROP up 7% on good volumes


- trend is down
- immediate resistance 925
- deep support 800
- bullish if stock can sustain above 925 with good volumes

DELTACORP breakout SL 80

GRASIM still bullish SL 4200

20 day swing signals from mystocks.co.in

Sugar stocks showing strength.. SL this month's low




Jim Rogers on Brexit: 'Worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime'

The UK's decision to leave the European Union will lead to an economic crisis more severe than what the world faced in 2008, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
“This is going to be worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime,” he said on Yahoo Finance’s “Market Movers” program Monday. “2008 was bad because of debt. The debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US, for instance, have been going sideways for 18 months to 24 months. That’s called a distribution by many people. When you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things.”
Rogers — who cofounded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970s — believes the “leave” movement’s victory last week may threaten the British union. While any negotiated deal may help assuage the market’s Brexit fears, Rogers foresees a “bad case scenario” where Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK and London’s clout diminishes significantly as financial institutions move towards continental Europe.
“The UK already has huge international debts and it has balance of trade problems and budget problems,” he said. “The bear case is the pound disappears. England becomes Spain or Poland or Italy or something.”

US markets break support but are now nearing oversold levels



June 27, 2016

Open positions

Top returns

TickerClose% ChBought @Buy DateStoplossReturn %Return Rs.
ABIRLANUVO 1,125.00 6.80% 903.80 11/May/16 1,020.00 24.47% 1,223.72
HINDALCO 119.80 2.13% 96.30 13/Apr/16 110.00 24.40% 1,220.15
DABUR 318.90 2.59% 267.55 13/Apr/16 295.00 19.19% 959.63
YESBANK 1,075.75 -0.44% 915.50 27/Apr/16 1,000.00 17.50% 875.20
EXIDEIND 167.45 0.96% 143.25 22/Apr/16 155.00 16.89% 844.68
VEDL 122.35 3.82% 106.35 20/Apr/16 110.00 15.04% 752.23
AXISBANK 514.45 0.77% 459.10 20/Apr/16 500.00 12.06% 602.81
INDUSINDBK 1,079.80 -1.46% 986.40 13/Apr/16 1,060.00 9.47% 473.44 

Worst performers

TickerClose% ChBought @Buy DateStoplossReturn %Return Rs.
JINDALSTEL 63.75 2.25% 74.55 20/Apr/16 60.00 -14.49% (724.35)
TATAPOWER 72.20 -0.69% 75.15 30/May/16 72.00 -3.93% (196.27)
BAJAJELEC 223.45 0.47% 232.00 27/Apr/16 215.00 -3.69% (184.27)
BEL 1,257.60 0.75% 1,289.20 08/Jun/16 1,200.00 -2.45% (122.56)
ASIANPAINT 974.30 -1.54% 998.25 27/May/16 970.00 -2.40% (119.96)
HDFCBANK 1,159.95 -0.17% 1,186.80 27/May/16 1,120.00 -2.26% (113.12)
HEROMOTOCO 3,052.00 -0.22% 3,097.50 30/May/16 2,900.00 -1.47% (73.45)
ARVIND 323.20 2.73% 326.95 21/Jun/16 300.00 -1.15% (57.35)

Signals today

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- Friday's hammer bullish sign
- but sustaining above top is important
- so far bulls are just about holding the market; no strength
- breaking low of Friday bar can invite further downsides
- looks like 8000 will hold this series

Difference between England, Britain and the UK


June 25, 2016

Google Trends: Brexit searches AFTER the vote

If you judge a country's interests only by prevalent Google searches, it was AFTER  the polls closed when British voters started to think seriously about the implications of their choice.

After Brexit Vote, Britain Asks Google: 'What Is The EU?' and interesting links

NIFTY intraday charts

- shorted on break of first big candle
- covered on break from second box
- breakeven trade
- did not trade long

NIFTY weekly charts

- NF forms a wide bodied doji candle
- this is formed after a sustained uptrend
- this might mean limited upsides
- 8400 will continue to provide strong resistance

NIFTY EOD charts

- NIFTY opens gap down, breaks support and recovers
- a bullish hammer is formed in the process
- this candlestick is reliable only if previous trend (down) was strong.
- that is not the case.
- option writers still defending 8000 level.

June 23, 2016

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- markets trading in a range for few weeks
- today, NF closed nicely in positive but AD was negative
- option writing levels 8000-8400

Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else?

Those people who do not avidly track global economic events may be a bit confused by the growing tensions surrounding the U.K. referendum to exit the European Union, otherwise known as the “Brexit.” Or, they are completely indifferent. Unfortunately, the potential fallout surrounding the event could very well affect the entire world, but perhaps not in the manner the mainstream media and international financiers would have us believe...

I would point out that under normal global economic conditions, the Brexit really shouldn’t matter much to anyone outside of the U.K. If the EU was fiscally stable, if its banks were solvent and its national debts well in hand, if the EU was actually a practical and successful supranational body, then the damage done by a British vote to leave the union would be minimal. Of course, this is not the case. As many other independent economic analysts and I have been outlining for years, the European Union is on the verge of economic breakdown. Look at it this way — if financial turmoil in a tiny member state like Greece can cause widespread doubts about the EU’s stability, then there is something fundamentally volatile about the entire structure.

The Brexit matters greatly to the future of the EU because, theoretically, if one of its most prominent members says adios, then other members may do the same. As it stands now, the EU cannot afford to have even one member, economically large or small, drop out of the system.

The Brexit matters to the rest of the world including the U.S. because of the brilliantly-destructive program of interdependency and globalism that has shaped our financial house for decades. Interdependency leads to extreme economic weakness because no piece of the global system has the tools to survive without the other pieces; and on top of this, when one part of the machine goes down, ALL the other parts are affected.

Read more at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/brexit-global-trigger-event-fake-out-or-something-else

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