April 30, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11748
- AD was 5:14

- broader market was weak

YESBANK reverses from previous support area

April 27, 2019

CNX IT at all time high

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 29000
- rangebound this month

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- some consolidation seen around current levels
- support 11000

April 26, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 11755
- AD was 7:10

If you believe Google trends, this election is a runaway win for Modi

....Yes, all this while people were calculating and guessing about results of Hindi heartland states, Google knew. In its infinite wisdom, Google knew what was going to happen. The writing was on the wall.

As with the rest of the world, India is slowly waking up to the power of big data. Think about it. If you knew what every person in the country was thinking, you would know who is winning the election. And today that “every” person has a smartphone and access to the internet, Google knows what people are interested in.

Now let us see what Google trends says about the last 3 months (BJP vs Congress)

Read more at https://dynastycrooks.wordpress.com/2019/04/23/if-you-believe-google-trends-this-election-is-a-runaway-win-for-modi

Will be interesting to see what happens.... will it be a clean sweep for BJP as the charts indicate?

BANKNIFTY bar by bar commentary for learning by @PAVLeader

Weird policy from exchanges

From tradingview site:

April 25, 2019

Advice from a professional option writer to newbies

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 11642
- AD was 4:5 - not bad
- stiff resistance around 11800 levels

- small caps and mid caps witnessed lesser selling as compared to index

- surprised to see close below 11700

Infidelity and stock market crashes - role of information asymmetry

Original source: unknown

Once upon a time there was a village in which there lived many married couples. There were certain qualities about this village, though, that made this village unique.

Whenever a man had an affair with another man’s wife, every woman in the village got to know about the affair, except his own wife. This happened because the woman who he had slept with talked about their affair with all the other women in the village, except his wife. Moreover, no one ever told his wife about the affair.

April 24, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1.3% in positive at 11726
- AD was 5:4

- we have a nice swing low around 11500 levels

April 23, 2019

BANKNIFTY looking weak

- this index gave the first breakout
- now looking weak
- it has actually closed below its recent swing low
- and this was a faster move
- however I will consider trend reversal below 29000

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.2% in negative at 11576
- AD was 7:11

- swing low 11500

- option writing support 11500 (minor) resistance 11700 (major)

Will oil trigger the next recession?

Government or state banks - who is to blame for India's slowdown?

India, the world's fastest growing large economy, is slowing: 

There has been a visible deceleration in activity in the past six months. It started with slowing sales of autos and some durable goods and has spread from there.

Airline traffic growth is down; companies are now saying sales of consumer staples such as soaps and detergents have begun to weaken, too. Even as the hunt for reasons for the slowdown begins, the main culprit appears to be a familiar one: the still largely government-owned financial system.

The issue is that there isn’t enough money in the economy. For much of the past two years, distributors and retailers of consumer products have been warning of a growing lack of liquidity. At first, policymakers largely dismissed their concerns. The government's late 2016 decision to withdraw most currency from circulation temporarily, and the introduction the following year of a nationwide goods-and-services tax, made it hard to decipher signals on economic momentum.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/government-or-state-banks-who-is-to-blame-for-india-s-slowdown-119042200067_1.html

April 22, 2019

NIFTY options max pain around 11700

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.35% in negative at 11594
- AD was 1:3

- close below 11500 will confirm trend reversal

- Last week's dark cloud cover shows its magic today

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

Randomness rules

Comedian Zelensky with no political experience wins Ukraine presidency

A comedian with no political experience won a landslide victory in Ukraine's presidential election Sunday, exit polls showed, dealing a stunning rebuke to the country's political establishment. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose only previous political role was playing the president on television, trounced incumbent Petro Poroshenko by taking 73 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls conducted by several think tanks.Poroshenko lost to the television star across all regions of the country, including in the west where he traditionally enjoyed strong support.

It was an extraordinary outcome to a campaign that started as a joke but struck a chord with voters frustrated by poverty, corruption and a five-year war that has claimed some 13,000 lives.

Read more at https://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-comedian-zelensky-with-no-political-experience-wins-ukraine-presidency-2741953

Be your own boss

April 20, 2019

Hacking Democracy: How Stolen Aadhaar Data Of Nearly 10 Cr Voters Was Used To Delete People From Electoral Rolls

“They used it to do some profiling of voters. They were seeding it with Aadhaar linked information to profile voter data,” he said. “After that, you draw up a list, showing how likely a candidate is to vote for you. To do this, we think they were using an IVRS [automated voice calling — one of the many digital services political parties now rely on] to reach out to all the potential voters.”

“They would ask questions about whom you will support, and based on your rating, assign a score. They repeated this process to work out a list of people who weren’t supporting them, and then they filed Form 7 requests about these people, to have them removed. It’s a very complex scheme.”

Form 7 is an objection to a name being included in the voter list — it can be filed by anyone about anyone else. Once filed, the EC physically verifies whether the person has shifted, or is deceased, or is a duplicate, and if that is the case, removes the name.

But thousands of people in both states, as well as in the rest of the country, have been taking to social media to talk about how they’ve been robbed of their votes. In fact, cricketer Rahul Dravid, who was one of the people in the EC’s ads to exhort people to vote, found his name missing as well.

Read more at https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/hacking-democracy-stolen-aadhaar-voter-deletion_in_5cb9afa2e4b068d795cb870c

People really do quit because of their bosses, or sometimes follow them

When Harish Banker quit his bank to join another financial services firm, six of his reporting team members also resigned from the company to join him.

This was a big blow to the firm which was already facing high rates of attrition. While the human resources team tried to retain the staff members by offering higher pay, none of them relented.

Their argument was that Banker was their mentor when they joined the team and they were only repaying the loyalty to the individual.

In HR parlance, a phrase that is often repeated is that people leave managers and not companies. While not everyone may agree, it is a fact that a company’s brand ambassador for a new joinee is often the manager s/he reports to.

You don’t need a boss like Miranda Priestly from The Devil Wears Prada to leave a job. They could, in fact, be an immense influencer in employee career decisions. So much so that employees quit en masse to follow their reporting manager. Especially if the employee has been hired by this person.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/people-really-do-quit-because-of-their-bosses-or-sometimes-follow-them-3857731.html

April 19, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- this week, nifty closed 0.9% in positive
- small signs of selling visible at higher levels

- support 11000

Something funny with NSE advance decline stats


Yesterday RELIANCE was up 3% while NIFTY closed 0.3% in negative.

What if Reliance closed flat? Then nifty would have closed another 60 points in the negative.

This is because Reliance has got almost 10% weight in the index.

Check this out at https://www.equitymaster.com/india-markets/nse-replica.asp

April 18, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11753
- pattern formed - dark cloud cover

- gap present below prev day's bar
- markets fine as long as this holds

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

They took the data from your servers ... stop pretending

April 17, 2019

On quitting a job at 32

Question from Jaycobb
That was a pretty bold decision at a relatively young age of 32! If am allowed to ask
- Was it disillusionment with appraisal alone that made you take the decision to not work for someone or there were other motivations in play?
- Curious to know if you are able to sustain since then (20 years?) only with trading alone? That would be quite a successful jump into unknown if I may say!

I was an MBA from a premier institute... after working for few years, I realised that my juniors and my seniors were all working just to impress their bosses who incidentally were also working for another boss. This never ended and was a chain.

People rate their work experience in terms of responsibility, designation, perks, salary etc... but at the end of the day, you are still working for someone else. There is no difference between a VP and the office security guy... everyone is working for money and trying to keep their seniors happy, get a raise, a promotion perhaps.

April 16, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11787
- AD was flat... why?

- nice swing low around 11500

Cloned fingerprints being used for Aadhaar authentication?

The unthinkable happens.... though it was only a matter of time

The secret ballot is no longer a secret

April 15, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11690
- AD was 10:7

- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000

Game over? Can't believe it happened so soon

Thoughts On The FMP Fiasco / Mutual Funds Sahi Nahi Hai

My view - a mutual fund may have risks clearly defined in its investment strategy but there is this bigger risk of the fund manager not following the rules. As always, the manager does not lose the job, the fund earns the fees and investors lose.


Anyone who has been following the coverage of the crisis in the media (mainstream and social), would have noted that much of the attention has been on Kotak MF, and on the so-called “safety” of FMPs.  In this post, I’d like to move that spotlight a bit.  The way I see it, firstly, the risks in investing in FMPs are, more or less, the same as they have been over the last several years.  It’s just that many investors, advisors, and fund houses, have been in denial over the fact that portfolio concentration is a bigger risk than credit quality in itself.  While I’ve talked at length about this previously, in this post, I want to talk about the questionable choices made by fund houses this time around, once this risk became a likely reality.  Secondly, I feel that looking at the FMP fiasco from the lens of the decisions of HDFC MF (rather than Kotak MF) offers a better picture of what has happened.  Investors in Kotak FMPs may have been the first to be visibly impacted, but it was HDFC MF that was the first to make the choices that brought us to where we are.

Read more at http://mfcritic.blogspot.com/2019/04/thoughts-on-fmp-fiasco.html

April 14, 2019

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 29000

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000
- resistance 12000

April 12, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.4% in positive at 11643
- AD was 5:4

- option writing levels: 11000 - 11500 - 12000

Double Top Pattern – Backtest Rules & Results

The double top pattern is a chart formation consisting of two consecutive price peaks that leads to a bearish reversal.

For years, traders have claimed that the double top is a high probability short setup.

This is because a double top pattern signifies that bulls are having trouble pushing the price past the prior high.

However, there has been little statistical research done to prove whether or not this pattern has any predictive ability.

In this article, we come up with a definition for the double top, code it up and test the pattern on some historical data.

1. Define The Double Top Pattern
Before we go any further it’s important to think about what a double top actually is and how we can write it into code.

This always presents a problem with chart patterns because they only become clear after the pattern is completed.

For example, a double top pattern only looks like a double top after the stock hits a high then drops through the accompanying support area.

If the stock doesn’t drop fully, then it will look more like a wedge or a triangle pattern.

If the high doesn’t hold long enough then the double top pattern very quickly looks nothing like a double top at all and instead morphs into a typical breakout.

Because of this, it’s essential to come up with a mathematical formula to represent a double top.

Read more at https://jbmarwood.com/double-top-pattern/

The Growth Puzzle and was UPA 2 better than NDA 2?

April 11, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11597
- AD was flat

- this will be 2nd week of rangebound movement in market

- option writing support 11000-11500 resistance 12000

IBM's AI Knows When People Will Quit Their Job With 95% Accuracy

One reason I quit working at the age of 32 was the realisation that all performance appraisals are a complete sham. This does not matter whether you are working in a traditional company or a multinational etc etc.

Your rating (excellent, outstanding) all depends on whether your boss likes you or not. If he does not, then whatever work you have put in has no value.

To this, you can also add a generous dose of  office politics!

Remember, people never quit companies ... they quit only because of bad managers.

"We found manager surveys were not accurate," said Rometty. "Managers are subjective in ratings. We can infer and be more accurate from data."

Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-09/ibms-ai-knows-when-people-will-quit-their-job-95-accuracy

Meet Katie Bouman, the woman who transformed our view of black holes forever

It's been a huge day for science. And an even bigger day for female scientists.

On Wednesday, we Earthlings got our first direct look at a black hole, thanks to the Event Horizon Telescope, an array of eight radio telescopes around the world working together to create the image. But in the midst of making jokes about how that photo kinda sorta looks the eye of Sauron and wondering how this newfound information could impact Albert Einstein's theories of gravity, social media focused on making sure one of the women behind the project gets credit for her contributions.

Katie Bouman, an MIT grad, helped develop a computer program while still in school. Along with others, it helped create the image of the black hole. She also led testing to verify the images.

Read more at https://www.cnet.com/news/meet-katie-bouman-the-woman-who-transformed-our-view-of-black-holes-forever/ and https://onezero.medium.com/scientists-release-the-first-image-of-a-massive-black-hole-a61913e55451

April 10, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 11585
- AD was flat at 4:5

- past few days movement hints at time correction

- VIX at 21... very high... this makes options very expensive

India in transition mode

While we were not looking, India won some battles

So how long does it take you to get a Wi-fi connection? How long does it take you to open a bank account? At least in the big metros, a Wi-fi connection happens within a day. Opening a bank account takes lesser time. The average time for these services in most developed countries is much longer. In most of Europe, for instance, it takes at least a month to get both these services. I have not heard of a faster initiation to completion time taken anywhere in the world than in India. Click on “buy" at 11pm and hear the door bell ring at 9am the next morning. That’s home delivery of stuff for you in big-city India. Want to return? Tap, tap, tap. They pick it up in the next few hours. Food delivery is transformed.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/opinion-while-we-were-not-looking-india-won-some-battles-1554796447382.html

April 8, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.5% in negative at 11604
- AD was negative at 7:10

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

April 7, 2019


- trend is up
- swing low 29000
- next support 27500

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week nifty closed flat
- a doji was formed
- double top near 11800 levels

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

April 5, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.6% in positive at 11666
- AD was 2:1

- option writing support 11000-11500, resistance 12000

April 4, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% negative at 11698
- AD was 7:10

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

April 3, 2019

NIFTY double top sell?

- in OCT last year, nifty was a good double bottom buy at 10000 (weekly charts)
- just few weeks ago, it was double bottom buy around 10600 (daily charts)

- now that it is near 11800 (significant top), does it become a good double top sell?
- SL is very close so risk is least

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.6% in negative at 11644
- AD was 1:2

- last 3 days, lot of choppiness seen in this region
- stay cautious with longs till 11800 is taken out

April 2, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% positive at 11713
- AD was flat

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

Sensex at 39,000? No, it’s actually 56,000

Even as the Sensex surged to historic highs on Monday and zoomed past the 39,000-mark, Ashish Chauhan of BSE points out that the index has actually grown to 56,000. Taking stock of the stock market barometer s journey, Ashish Cahuhan, CEO of BSE said that the Sensex base date is April 1,1979. On that day, it was set at 100. Today it completed 40 years and coincidentally reached 39,000, he tweeted. While the Sensex has scaled 39,000, if dividends are taken into account, on a total return basis, the Sensex would be at 56,000, he said. If we take dividends into account, on total return basis, it would be close to 56,000. Congratulations India for the stupendous growth! he added.

Putting this stellar growth into perspective, a Rs 1 lakh investment into the Sensex in 1979, would have grown to a massive Rs 5.6 crore in 2019. In effect, in 40 years, the

Read more at https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/sensex-39-000-no-56-055101673.html

April 1, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11666
- AD was 2:1

- there was an intraday selloff of 100 points in last 30 minutes
- resulting pattern was a shooting star
- one day before we had a hanging man
- both these days, we had a gapup opening

- as we near all time highs, there will be lot of selling/ increase in volatility

Inspirational story: The actor who became a security guard

NOTE: the article title says "chowkidar"... I renamed this in blog post as nowadays every second person is becoming a chowkidar on paper (elections?)


and recently

Read more at https://www.rediff.com/movies/report/the-actor-who-became-a-chowkidar/20190401.htm

Handle by Boston Dynamics - Rise of the machines

Share this...