April 30, 2015

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 30-APR-2015 
  • These charts are for educational purposes only.
  • This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
  • Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
  • Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in

Market outlook

- trend still down even after 10 down days
- no follow thru buying even after development of some support
- advance decline negative
- markets nearing oversold levels
- lack of follow thru selling despite break of support might indicate bullishness
- option writing support 8100 resistance 8600 (May series)

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- I did not trade today as it was expiry and option premiums come to zero eventually
- first arrow (short trade) was the only reliable trade
- logic for short trade is break below 2-3 day supports
- all other trades failed (minor profit/ loss) as markets were rangebound.
- loss would have been higher had positions been taken in options

April 29, 2015

Market outlook

- today was a down day though advance decline was positive
- no evidence of buying seen even though previous day was bullish.
- immediate support seen at 8200; break of this can be disastrous for markets
- current levels not good for shorting because risk reward is not favourable
- bulls not giving support at current levels will be an incentive for bears to sell.
- option writing - highest OI puts at 8300 and calls at 8800 (May series)

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- first trade was short (I did not trade this)
- long trade was profitable.
- last trade was short (I did not trade this)

My trades: since I was overnight long in 8300 calls, I exited this around 8290F
and bought this again for a positional trade around 8250 F

April 28, 2015

Something funny in MAY series

NIFTY closed below 8300 but highest OI is at 8300 strike price (puts)...and there is a cut in OI for 8200 put option. This is rare given the premium.

Vivek Patil's projection for 2015

Vivek Patil is one of India's well known Elliot Wave Analyst.

Watch his interview for some gyan on where the markets are likely to head.

MARUTI breakout

MARUTI closed at lifetime high and gave a good breakout. Still a buy with SL < 3400

BANK NIFTY technicals

- overall trend is down
- BNF taking support at 17700 - double bottom
- above 18450, BNF can move to 19050

Market outlook

- overall trend is down
- bounce back from oversold levels
- recall very strong support at 8200 levels
- option writers still bullish that 8200 will not break in MAY
- call writing resistance seen around 8800 levels
- holding 8200, nifty can target 8500-8600.

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- I was long from first bar/ box (reason - strong support at 8200)
- Correct buy came on breakout at second box
- Booked 80% profits in 3rd box (breakeven for other traders)
- Last trade was breakout in 4th box.
- Still holding some "free" positions (8300, 8400 calls) for expiry day

April 27, 2015

NIFTY / BANK NIFTY 3 day swing chart

Chart is self explanatory....


NIFTY futures intraday charts

- first short on break of previous day's low
- stopped out giving no profit no loss
- long trade not considered
- circled area shows possibility of advanced shorts
- third arrow is new short trade.
- cover on market close in profit.

Here is the same chart with kplswing indicator (3 bars) - following this would have given more profits today,

Market outlook

- nifty closes below previous swing low and closes at lowest level for this year
- the first time nifty closed below previous swing low was in March
- now significant swing high is around 8850 spot
- minor swing high or resistance is 8500 level.
- next support is around 8000 levels
- option writing points to support at 8200 and resistance at 8800 (MAY series).

April 24, 2015

RELIANCE done nothing for past 6 years

- stock is off 30% + off 2008 highs
- nifty broke out above 6400 (2008 highs) and is trading at 8300 levels
- nothing is happening in this stock

INFY technicals

- trend is down; today stock was down 6%
- no big deal; stock has been down 20%+ in recent past

Bigger view on monthly charts shows a better picture

UK FTSE index

- index currently trading at lifetime highs
- trading range 7000-7100
- consider these as support / resistance levels

US S&P 500 large cap index

- ascending triangle
- close/ breakout above 2120 will be bullish
- close below 2080 may lead to trend reversal
- NASDAQ has already given a breakout

Market outlook

- markets retest support at 8270 (March low)
- minor swing high at 8500
- holding 8200 next week/ month will be bullish
- above 8500, rally possible to 8800
- below 8200, more panic possible in market
- option writers bullish in MAY series SL 8200

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- initial trade on short side as markets break yesterday's low (did not trade)
- trailing SL gets hit
- next long trade also stoplossed as yesterday's low becomes resistance for the day
- incidentally I took only the long trade today as I was getting slowly bullish on the market.
- did nothing thereafter and ignored the 2nd short trade.
- in hindsight, sitting tight after short trade was best strategy had one considered SL around 8370 F

- next week, expect strength above 8370 F

April 23, 2015

Market outlook

- yesterday's bullish hammer fails to show it's magic today
- no follow through rally
- advance decline negative (just like yesterday)
- first day of higher high higher low formation though red bar
- all this looks like technical pullback only
- option writing support 8200 resistance 8800 (MAY series)

BANKNIFTY futures intraday charts

Chart plotted with kplswing indicator and N=3 on 5 minute charts.

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- Break of day's low by big bar was first short signal (8460F)
- Some hints of weakness were visible in the first box
- Trailing SL hits around 8400F
- Long trade shown at first UP arrow
- Stopped out by big bearish engulfing bar (second box).
- If not exited here, then break of 8390 F would be exit level

April 22, 2015

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- possible reversal day today
- initial bias were short as supports kept breaking
- trailing SL gets hit around 8340 F
- trade shifts to long... good profits
- note 8300 is likely to offer good support

Same chart with kplswing N=3 (preferred for 5 min intraday)

Market outlook

- recent rally has been fully retraced in faster time
- now markets take support at March lows (8270 spot)
- hammer formed... this has bullish implications - let's see
- any rally may lead to formation of lower swing high
- advance decline negative
- option writing points to support at 8300 (MAY series)

April 21, 2015

NIFTY 200 dma chart

This chart means nothing to me but many people specially the media tends to get excited by this.

Same chart in 2013...

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- rangebound trading day
- first buy signal failed... small loss
- next short signal gave marginal profits
- overall a breakeven day
- tomorrow, expect strength above 8500 F

Same chart with kplswing indicator

Market outlook

- trend still down
- some signs of buying coming in
- advance decline negative though not strongly
- expect support around 8270 spot
- option writers bullish in MAY series

MCX Gold charts

- trend is weakly up
- support 26400 resistance 27000

MCX crude charts

- trend is up with swing low support at 3000
- minor support at 3350
- fast break of 3350 or  a big down bar can mean possible trend reversal.

April 20, 2015

Lots of sell signals

Source: mystocks.co.in

Market outlook

- 3rd day of lower high lower low
- biggest drop in past 4 days
- faster retracement of previous rally (though not 100% as yet).
- advance decline strongly negative
- strong / good support at 8270 spot
- technical pullback possible from current levels
- risk reward may not favour short sellers

NIFTY intraday futures charts

- first big bar of day hinted at more downsides
- 3 boxes shown... downside break is short trade
- also plotted kplswing indicator... black arrows show short signals
- long trade is expectedly a whipsaw

April 19, 2015

CAIRN bearish on monthly charts

CAIRN trading below 2011 and 2013 support levels...

BEL monthly charts

Best time to buy is after a 20-30% correction from current levels.

AXIS BANK technicals

AXIS BANK breaks support... now buy above level is 575

NIFTY RSI monthly chart

Difficult to visualise nifty crossing 9000 in the immediate future.

Holding 7900-8000 would still be bullish though on monthly charts (buy signal around 6700).

BHARATFORGE technicals

Looks like we might have a trend reversal here if stock closes below 1180...

BANK NIFTY technicals

Looks like BNF is forming lower swing high. I will be bullish above 19050... support 17700.

April 18, 2015

A Math Problem From Singapore Goes Viral: When Is Cheryl’s Birthday?

Check how good you are at logical thinking... I could solve only half the problem.

Albert and Bernard just met Cheryl. “When’s your birthday?” Albert asked Cheryl.

Cheryl thought a second and said, “I’m not going to tell you, but I’ll give you some clues.” She wrote down a list of 10 dates:

May 15, May 16, May 19
June 17, June 18
July 14, July 16
August 14, August 15, August 17

“My birthday is one of these,” she said.

Then Cheryl whispered in Albert’s ear the month — and only the month — of her birthday. To Bernard, she whispered the day, and only the day.

“Can you figure it out now?” she asked Albert.

Albert: I don’t know when your birthday is, but I know Bernard doesn’t know, either.

Bernard: I didn’t know originally, but now I do.

Albert: Well, now I know, too!

When is Cheryl’s birthday? click here for the answer

Monty hall or the 3 door problem

Check how good you are at probability... the answer is not obvious and will confound even a Ph D holder.
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?"
Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Full answer is given here 

April 17, 2015

RELCAPITAL showing selling at current levels

Buy above 465 ... sell below 440 spot.

CNX IT breaks support.... trend down

CNX IT breaks support.... trend down

Market outlook

- we have 3 days of selling
- yesterday's buying at lower levels failed to show its effect on today's chart
- correction this week negates all gains made this week
- expect more weakness if markets trade below 8600 next week
- option writing points to resistance at 9000.
- EWT followers might see formation ABC-X-ABC where the X just got over (8270 to 8850) and the A started now.
- ignore above if you cannot understand EWT.

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- overall trend is down on hourly charts
- first break of 8670 F saw some buying
- we have selling seen at circled areas
- first circle showed bearish bin bars
- second circle showed formation of bearish (mat) continuation pattern
- last circle gave around 30-40 points

PNB bullish on close above 172

PNB bullish on close above 172 with SL below 160

April 16, 2015

HEROMOTOCO weekly charts

Trend is down... stock off 25% all time highs... next good support 2260.

Market outlook

- after yesterday's outside day, markets form lower high lower low (first day)
- in a good uptrend, 2-3 days of correction is normal
- let us see what happens this time
- option writing points to support at 8600 and resistance at 9000

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