November 16, 2019

Modi govt's 'unrealistic' tax targets take toll on IT officials, many quit

...Over a dozen tax officials interviewed by Reuters said they are stuck between a push to meet unrealistic collection targets, which influence their appraisals and transfers, and the fear of being accused of over-zealousness if they crack down on evasion.

Critics say Modi's demands of his tax officials are symptomatic of the confusion surrounding his government's economic policies, and that the bungling has contributed to a slowdown in growth.

Twenty-two top-level tax department officers have opted for voluntary retirement so far this year and around 34 did so in 2018, according to data provided by....

Read more at https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/22-top-level-it-dept-officials-opt-for-voluntary-retirement-amid-govts-tax-targets/story/390451.html

BANKNIFTY weightage

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NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- spinning top/ doji for 2nd consecutive week

- as long as 11600 holds, nothing to worry

- waiting for weekly close above 12000
- so far this is not happening

- highest OI remains at 12000 CE...resistance

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 30000
- resistance 32000

- 30500 expected to hold this expiry

November 15, 2019

The Trump impeachment comedy

Ignore data if it does not support your views

Salaries do not attract GST

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Open positions and stoploss


 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11895
- AD was 4:5

- doji was formed

-  highest OI at 12000CE

For option traders...

You being right does not mean I am wrong

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November 14, 2019

Stock charts

LAST updated: 14-NOV-2019 
AUROPHARMA
AUROPHARMA chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.25% in positive at 11870
- AD was 7:11

- VIX down 6%

- option writing support 11600 resistance 12000

Trade for the process and not the money

Secret to wealth

This happens only in India...shut schools and then ask children to run

MANAGE RISK all the time

No market trends all the time. No range sustains all the time. No strategy works all the time. That's why you MANAGE RISK all the time!

Govt is desperate for income - 18% GST on HO salaries

November 13, 2019

What if RELIANCE was not up 3% today?

- RELIANCE was up 3% today
- but NIFTY closed 0.6% in negative
- if RELIANCE was flat
-  then NIFTY would have been another 60 points down

Source: https://www.equitymaster.com/india-markets/nse-replica.asp


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11840
- AD was 7:11

- option writing support 11600 resistance 12000

Strange... NSE Advance Decline chart

November 11, 2019

Brokers OHLC charts/ data Mismatch and Stoploss / Limit Orders got executed wrongly

Indian Exchanges provides free Level 2 access to its members (Brokers/). Level 2 data contains the Last traded price, Top 5 Bid x Ask levels from the orderbook. The complete depth of the exchange orderbook is not exposed and currently, Level 2 data is restricted only up to 5 levels (depth of the market). Some brokers even provide Level 3 data to their premium clients to identify liquidity pools for their premium customers.

And Level 1 data that most of the data vendors/Websites use primarily gets only LTP, Bid Price, Bid Qty, Ask Price, ASK Qty only for the first level in the orderbook.

Both Level 1 and Level 2 data which is sent in realtime by the Indian Exchanges are not a real tick data instead they send consolidated 1-second data feed for Level 1 (snapshot data) and every broker in the country to receive snapshot Level 2/Level 3 data (consolidated data) which updates 2-4 every second (But not reports all the ticks).

A Tick is generated by the exchange whenever there is a change in LTP price or any order cancellations/order modifications are done in the orderbook it will be reported in the form of Tick data. Which exchange call it as a TBT feed (tick by tick data feed). And every second gigantic amount of ticks are generated every second which is humongous data to transmit over the internet in realtime

Currently, TBT feed is accessible only by the High-frequency trading firms where their servers are colocated to the exchange server to tap and process the data faster to execute their low latency trading strategies.

Read more at https://www.marketcalls.in/trading-lessons/brokers-ohlc-charts-data-mismatch-and-stoploss-limit-orders-got-executed-wrongly.html

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11913
- AD was flat

- trading range was extremely small..

Grim Trigger Play in Maharashtra CM politics BJP vs Shiv Sena

A "Grim Trigger" (also called the grim strategy or just grim) is a trigger strategy for a repeated game.

Initially, a player using grim trigger will cooperate, but as soon as the opponent defects (thus satisfying the trigger condition), the player using grim trigger will defect for the remainder of the iterated game. Since a single defect by the opponent triggers defection forever, grim trigger is the most strictly unforgiving of strategies in an iterated game.



Read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grim_trigger

November 9, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- lot of tussle seen around 12000 levels
- weekly close above 12000 will be bullish sign

- weekly expiry shows highest OI at 12000 CE
- monthly expiry shows highest OI at 11600 PE
- difficult trading environment

- big spoiler: nifty PE ratio now around 28
- does not make sense for long term investors to enter now



BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- swing low around 30000
- double top near 31000

- note rally from 27500 to 30500 has taken a longer time than the same fall
- this is not  a bullish sign

- weekly expiry shows highest OI at 30500 PE-30000  PE
- monthly expiry shows highest OI at 30000 PE
- above levels are expected to give support
- this means option writers are bullish

November 8, 2019

Avoid rent seekers

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S Gurumurthy on demonetisation



Read more at https://twitter.com/sgurumurthy/status/1192718994882646017

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in negative at 11908
- AD was 7:11

- past  few days nifty is unable to sustain near day's highs
- yesterday's hanging man was a nice warning

- option writing support 11600 res 12000

November 7, 2019

Buy signals

ADANITRANS - COLPAL - GODFRYPHLP - HAVELLS - HINDALCO - IPCALAB - ITC - 


MFSL - NBCC - NIFTY - NIFTYBEES - NIITLTD - PEL - RELCAPITAL - TINPLATE -

Open interest analyss

- this weekly expiry, option writers escaped with min injuries
- the dominant view was expiry below 12000; expiry happened at 12016

- monthly expiry stats show
- highest OI at 11900 PE
- option writers do not expect 11600 to break
- increased writing seen at 11900 PE
- in other words, cautiously bullish

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on  daily charts
- today nifty closed .4% in positive at 12016
- AD was flat

- doji/ hanging man formed
- if markets close above 12000, this will be the weekly close above this level

The role of P/E multiples in determining investment returns

Two of the most common fallacies of investing in the stock market are:


  • P/E multiple of 10x is cheap and P/E multiple of 50x is expensive
  • During time periods when P/E multiples of great companies compress, share prices of poor quality companies will outperform those of great companies.


Let’s do a quick statistical analysis to test these two points. As shown in the exhibits that follow, the BSE100 universe in India has had no significant correlation between starting period valuations (as at the beginning of the concerned period) and subsequent long-term returns, no matter which phase of the stock market one looks at.

Read more at https://marcellus.in/blogs/the-role-of-p-e-multiples-in-determining-investment-returns/

Pay Up, But Don't Overpay

Did the fellow who paid 68 times earnings for Nestlé India in 1992 overpay? If he had, his long-term return should have been poor, right? But that didn’t happen. It didn’t happen because even at a P/E of 68, the growing earnings stream the company would deliver over the next two decades was not being fully factored in that “crazy” price. So, perhaps the fellow who bought it at that price was not that crazy after all.

It seems to me that Indian stock markets have systematically undervalued Nestlé India by ignoring its long-term growth potential. But, you ask, how much more can Nestlé India grow? I will let you dwell on this by providing you with a few data points.

Read more at https://www.outlookbusiness.com/specials/the-name-is-buffett-warren-buffett/pay-up-but-dont-overpay-1502

Breakout stock charts

LAST updated: 06-NOV-2019 
ADANIENT
ADANIENT chart

November 6, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at  11961
- AD was flat

- "outside" bar formed
- tussle between bulls and bears going on

- option writing support 11900 resistance 12000 (highest OI in calls)

Who is DarkInfosious in #INFOSYS

November 5, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 11917
- AD was 7:11

- lower low formed
- outside bar formed
- buying seen at lower levels

- highest OI persists at 12000 CE
- limited upside seen

NIFTY Std Deviation wrt 50 DMA

November 4, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11945
- AD was 10:7

- last 3-4 days, nifty forming higher high higher low
- but close is always near open thus forming a doji
- a small correction cannot be ruled to shake out the weak hands

- looks like expiry will be below 12000
- open interest says so

November 3, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- strong resistance around 12000
- support 11500-11000

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support around 29700 (minor) and 29000
- prev swing high/ resistance 30800

November 1, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 11900
- AD was 5:4

- VIX dropped 4%



3 min charts:
- took one long trade
- stopped out at small loss
- did nothing thereafter

- decision levels 11880-11940 F



Active income versus passive income

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Source: unknown/ unreliable