October 31, 2020

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- BNF has underperformed NIFTY massively
- not able to sustain above 24000 

- resistance 25000

NIFTY monthly charts

- signs of selling visible around 12000 levels
- note mean reversion to 11000 for 3 years
- nifty at 11000 for last 3 Septembers

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- sideways movement seen for 3 weeks now
- all activity mostly within range of the most recent green bar

- support 11500 res 12000-12500

Lessons from the Covid lockdown


October 30, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 11642
- this is slightly below the low of the big red bar
- not giving too much importance to this as
- the region of 11500-11600 is a good support zone

- AD was flat

- option writing clues suggest 11500 is likely  to hold
- so does this mean bias is bullish?

October 29, 2020

NIFTY 15 min charts

- today's rangebound market stops out any positional short trade

- net long above 11750 F and short below 11600 F

NIFTY EOD charts

- today markets opened gap down and closed 0.5% in negative at 11671
- first 15 min low provided good support during the day

- AD was 1:2

- region of 11500-11600 expected to provide good support this week (and maybe next also)

- ATR(14) is 173 meaning min SL of 350 points required for a positional trade using EOD charts
- in percentage terms, this is 3% and is quite low.

Stupid "formatting error" leads to 10% intraday swing in BHARTIARTL


Read more at https://twitter.com/rajivmehta19/status/1321492982575427584

October 28, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty today closed 1.3% in negative at 11730
- AD was 1:2

- of late, big red bars are occurring more often
- however all activity is within the body of the big red bar formed on 15-OCT

- a break of 11650 spot is expected

- yesterday KOTAKBANK was up 12% 
- and today BHARTI was up 10% initially
- is this index management?
- coz last 8-10 days only index heavyweights are moving up

NSE advance decline chart


October 27, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

NIFTY EOD charts

- today markets closed 1% in positive at 11890 
- but AD was flat

- markets continue to trade within body of red big bar
- this sideways trading will eventually lead to a breakdown or breakout

- key levels to watch are 12650 and 12050 spot

October 26, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts


NIFTY EOD charts

- last 4-5 days of extremely rangebound movement is resolving to downside
- this led to selloff today with nifty closing 1.4% in negative at 11768
- AD was 2:1

- note all activity is still happening within the body of the big red bar formed on 15-OCT

- expect support around 11500-11600

October 23, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:

- traded long in circled area

60 min:

- waiting for breakout from range

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11930
- AD was 2:1

- this week, nifty was extremely rangebound
- all trading days had a doji
- incidentally all activity took place within the body of the big red bar

October 22, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- extremely rangebound movement
- no trades done

15 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11896
- AD was 5:4

- markets still trading within range of big red bar
- note the recent 1100 point rally in less than 2 weeks
- so some sideways movement can persist for a long time

October 21, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:

15 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- volatility continues within circled area
- today nifty crossed 12000, fell more than 200 points and then recovered
- close was 0.3% positive at 11938
- AD was flat

October 20, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- today nifty closed flat at 11897
- AD was flat
- however VIX is increasing almost everyday
- today it was up 4% at 22.69

- will we have a gap down opening tomorrow?

October 19, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- today nifty closed 0.9% in positive at 11873
- AD was 3:2

- trailing SL 5 bar low was triggered for long positions
- 10 bar low trailing is now at 11564 and will increase to 11629 tomorrow

Just in case you have too many worries in life


HDFCBANK results and next day trading day


Source: https://twitter.com/golfstocks

October 18, 2020

5 Key Rules For Heikin Ashi Trade

There are broadly 5 rules that need to be followed when trading with Heiken Ashi Candles. 

Rule Number 1 – Green candles with no lower “shadows” indicate a strong uptrend: When you spot these on charts, be in the trade and don’t think about profit booking. You might want to add to your long position and exit short positions.

Rule Number 2 – Candles with a small body with upper and lower shadows indicate  trend change: These are indecision candles and require more confirmation.

Rule Number 3 – Red/Black candles with no upper shadow indicates strong a downtrend: When you spot these on charts, be in the trade and don’t think about profit booking. You might want to add to your short position and exit long positions

Rule Number 4 – Candles with long lower shadows represent Buying interest. Always take note of these candles and assess price action after you spot these candles.

Rule Number 5 – Candles with long upper shadows represent selling interest and be cautious with existing long positions if you spot such Candles.

How crucial is risk management in protecting the capital and for healthy return as well : A case study

October 17, 2020

October 16, 2020

The decline of the US...remember the decline of the British "Empire"?

NIFTY intraday charts

15 min:
- trend is down and will reverse to buy on close above 11800 F

30 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11762
- AD was 2:1

- most probably this was a dead cat bounce
- region of 11500-11600 is a support area
- if this breaks next week, expect a deeper correction

- note that kplswing indicator is still showing trend as bullish
- however a trailing SL at 5 bar low got triggered yesterday
- 10 bar trailing SL will be at 11500 after 1-2 trading days

October 15, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- but today nifty had a big red bar
- as it closed 2.4% in negative at 11680
- AD was 1:3
- VIX jumped 9% to 22

- significant support is 11500
- going by 5 bar rule + big bar, you can assume SL hit today

- yesterday call writers got stopped out and
- today put writers got stopped out 

October 14, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- traded first short and second long
- did not trade first long as signal was near resistance
- similarly did not trade second short as signal was near support

- circled area showed a low risk long trade with exit at 11880 F
- I did not trade 

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11971
- AD was 4:5

- there was initial intraday selling followed by a smart rally
- this is nicely visible in intraday charts

October 13, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

- posting 3 min chart for reference only
- no trades today

NIFTY EOD charts

- nifty forms inside bar, closes flat at 11934
- AD is 4:5
- PE ratio nearing 35

October 12, 2020

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- did not trade today due to power failure in Mumbai/ Thane

15 min:

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11931
- AD was 1:2
- of late, market breadth is flat to negative even on up days

- support 11500

Harvard: Why beating the stock markets (or index funds) is incredibly difficult

• Performance persistence is rare: Harvard’s endowment hasn’t always lagged the market. In fact, it produced a remarkable string of successes in the late 1990s and early aughts. Cumulatively over the 15 years through mid-2008, for example, it beat the S&P 500 by more than five annualized percentage points, better than almost every actively managed mutual fund and Wall Street institutional investor. While the odds of producing that 15-year market-beating return were very low, they were even lower that the endowment’s managers would be able to repeat that success. Rather than reacting smugly, we should take to heart that even the best and the brightest are unable to consistently beat the market.

• Overconfidence is an obstacle: One of the reasons that performance persistence is rare is that success breeds overconfidence. I have no inside knowledge about the managers running the Harvard endowment, but it would be difficult not to let a 15-year annualized alpha of over five percentages points go to their heads.

Read more at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-harvard-endowments-below-average-grade-can-teach-you-about-index-funds-and-your-investments-2020-10-09 

Markets care a damn about your qualification, title or CV

Honest disclosure - I've never worked on the sell-side... From day 1 of my career I've been working on the buy-side (that's 12-years now)...

First day on my job my PM told me "at our firm we eat what we kill... no one cares about your title or CV. If you don't make your target 
you will not survive even a quarter" (and my first day on the job was Sep 1st,2008)...
Fast-forward 6-months - still in the business (after remarkable trading and decent p&l through lehman aftermath)... Went on a business trip with my PM to meet our counterparties at the banks 
I was so impressed because every person I met was either "head of (something)" or VP (according to their business cards... I said to my PM "we must be important if these guys have time to meet us"... he told me "everybody at these banks is either VP or head of... even the janitor 
Fast forward 12-year :
most of the traders/VPs/head-of are no longer trading for these banks (some are even out of the market completely)... very few (very bright people) buy-side still in the game..

That throws me back to boxing... I often see guys coming to the gym with high 
end gear, 200$ shoes, 450$ gloves, doing fancy pad-work (and post on IG), but when they go in the ring they don't last through one round, as the devote too much time to appearance rather than the nitty gritty of the game...
These expensive gloves and super light shoes don't make 
up for lack of fundamentals, and will not help them when they are with their back against the rope getting hammered.

My point? the market couldn't care less about our titles and resume.. if one wants to survive he/she needs good fundamental and to constantly grow and evolve 

October 11, 2020

Charts do not predict prices

October 10, 2020

Sheer randomness or luck?

Is this rally being sold into?


October 9, 2020


- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11914
- but AD was 4:5

- now swing low at 10800
- but that is far so I will consider support around 11500
- minor whipsaws ok

Schroedinger's plates - for the scientifically inclined

 They are both broken and not broken until you open the door.

Which timeframe to use


October 8, 2020

Historic move

NIFTY intraday charts

5 min:
- ignore first short signal as bar close is not at low

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11835
- AD was 4:5

- despite gapup opening, markets closed flat  forming a doji

- of late, AD is not encouraging as markets are moving higher
- and we have heavyweights leading the rally turn by turn
- one day it was TCS, next day Reliance, then HDFC twins and so on
- today it was TCS and HDFCBANK

- note region of 11000-12000 is a huge congestion area for almost 3 years

- an interesting observation
- nifty has gained 1000 points in less than 10 days
- and most of the gains were in overnight gapups

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