May 26, 2019

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support - gap around 30000
- resistance 32000

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- selling seen around 12000 levels
- support 11000-11500

Google trends was right about BJP winning

May 24, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today market closed 1.6% in positive at 11844
- AD was 4:1

- VIX down 15%

- out of station till 28th MAY... not trading at all

May 23, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty opened with a  big gapup and closed deep in the red
- however lose was above 11600
- close was at 11657 (0.7% negative)
- AD was flat

- VIX down 30%.. options at more sensible pricing

- now election tamasha is over
- BJP is in majority again for 5 years
- so no uncertainty on political front

- today's "official" result was the trigger for "sell on good news"



May 22, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11738
- AD was 5:4

- option writing support 11000-11500 resistance 12000


May 21, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1% in negative at 11709
- AD was 1:2

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

- exit polls giving BJP a v good majority is already factored by markets
- so what other good news is left?
- what if exit polls are way off the mark?

- on vacation till 27th MAY

May 20, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- nifty closed 3.7% in positive at 11828
- AD was 5:1

-  move in 2 days is probably the fastest in last 2-3 year.

- immediate support 11500
- close below 11500 this week will lead to whipsaw

- option writing  resistance 12000

- travelling till next Wednesday so updates can be sporadic.




You have been warned in advance

May 19, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000 resistance 12000

- Friday's strong bounce has come from oversold region
- do not read too much into the rally


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- index has bounced off from oversold region
- support 28400 res 30500


May 18, 2019

Don't come back to work on Sunday - Wallstreet quote




May 17, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 1.3% in positive at 11407
- AD was 5:4

- option writing support 11000 resistance 12000

- buy signal on 30 min/ 60 min charts

- taking a break from trading next week
- options are extremely expensive and volatility can wreak havoc in trades

How a renowned researcher beat the odds, stumped casino owners around the world, and walked away with a fortune.

On a warm night in May of 1969, a throng of awestruck gamblers crowded around a well-worn roulette table in the Italian Riviera.

At the center stood a gangly 38-year-old medical professor in a rumpled suit. He’d just placed a $100,000 bet ($715,000 in 2019 dollars) on a single spin of the wheel. As the croupier unleashed the little white ball, the room went silent. He couldn’t possibly be this lucky… could he?

But Dr. Richard Jarecki wasn’t leaving it up to chance. He’d spent thousands of hours devising an ingenious method of winning — and it would soon net him the modern equivalent of more than $8,000,000.

Read more at https://thehustle.co/professor-who-beat-roulette/

Nifty can slip up to 15% if Narendra Modi-led NDA fails to form govt: UBS

A recent report co-authored by Gautam Chhaochharia, the UBS head of India research, along with Dipojjal Saha and Rohit Arora, expects the Nifty to slip 10-15 per cent if the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fails to form the government at the Centre. The projection is based on sharp reactions witnessed in 2004 and 2009 after general election outcomes.

UBS expects the Nifty to move up 5-10 per cent, crossing their upside (and recent peak) scenario of 11,800 in case the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gets a single-party majority. On the other hand, a BJP-led NDA win (over 250 seats) could see the Nifty move up by 5 per cent to touch its recent peak, the report says. In case BJP-led NDA wins less than 250 seats, UBS expects the markets to remain volatile in the near-term and wait for the government formation before making a directional call.

Read more at https://www.business-standard.com/article/elections/nifty-can-slip-up-to-15-if-narendra-modi-led-nda-fails-to-form-govt-ubs-119051600494_1.html

Nice post on demonetisation, GST and Rera

By Arvind Modi

Does everyone feel that Modi broke the backbone of the Indian economy by introducing demonetization, GST, and RERA?

I am an IT Project manager who quit a full time job to pursue my dreams as an entrepreneur. 90 out of 100 times I use auto correct to fix the spelling of entrepreneur when I write. Until 2.5 years ago, I had an abnormal IT job for 10 years that never had a start time or end time and then I decided I am old enough to spread my wings and fly off to pursue my dreams considering the fact that I am already used to work for odd hours. So I did!

In 2.5 years, I had a lot of learning, a lot of departments of a company that I would never have tapped are now being managed by me. One of which is ‘purchasing’. And this is where my opinion on demonetization and GST comes from.

Until demonetization a lot of our purchases were paid through cash and never had an invoice. Our choices were limited, most of the suppliers were unregistered large volume suppliers who used every loop hole in the law, bribed officers and have been doing large volume business (in crores) without a single tax ID.

Then, Demonetization happened. The first impact was on these suppliers. It was practically impossible for us to get new currency and pay them. This is when we started scouting for suppliers who would take online payment. Now most of these suppliers have tight knit families so with the 2.5 lakh limit and 20 people in the family, it was easy for them to ask us to transfer to one of the 20 bank accounts they gave us. They were pretty smart they thought! So for the next few months after demonetization, whenever we had an order to place we would get a new account number to make a payment to.

At this stage, our suppliers list has shrunken down by 50% already.

Now eventually came GST. GST is a game changer for every business man. The VAT system was pretty simple, almost every sale we had was either 5% or 14.5% taxable. Being an online business, our data was always ready and it took us less time to report our taxes and pay them. But I knew a lot of them misused this reporting by submitting false purchases and lesser sales (for online business every single payment is to the bank account so we can not float these values).

May 16, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in positive at 11257
- AD was flat

- last 4 days, nifty is trading between 11100 and 11300
- alternate day up down movement

- option writing support 11000 res 12000

May 15, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in negative at 11157
- AD was 7:11 (not bad)

- expecting good support around 11000

WhatsApp’s End-to-End Encryption Is a Gimmick

The discovery that hackers could snoop on WhatsApp should alert users of supposedly secure messaging apps to an uncomfortable truth: “End-to-end encryption” sounds nice — but if anyone can get into your phone’s operating system, they will be able to read your messages without having to decrypt them.

According to a report in the Financial Times on Tuesday, the spyware that exploited the vulnerability was Pegasus, made by the Israeli company NSO. The malware could access a phone’s camera and microphone, open messages, capture what appears on a user’s screen, and log keystrokes — rendering encryption pointless. It works on all operating systems, including Apple’s iOS, Google’s Android, and Microsoft’s rarely used mobile version of Windows.

Hackers can install the malware simply by calling the target.

It’s important to realize, however, that spyware that can install itself without any action on the user’s part can arrive through any channel, be it an encrypted messenger, a browser, an email or SMS client with an undiscovered vulnerability allowing such an attack.

These are merely applications running on top of an operating system, and once a piece of malware gets into the latter it can control the device in a multitude of ways. With a keylogger, a hacker can see only one side of a conversation. Add the ability to capture a user’s screen, and they can see the full discussion regardless of what security precautions are built into the app you are using.

“End-to-end encryption” is a marketing device used by companies such as Facebook to lull consumers wary about cyber-surveillance into a false sense of security. Encryption is, of course, necessary, but it's not a fail-safe way to secure communication.

Read more at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-14/whatsapp-hack-shows-end-to-end-encryption-is-pointless

May 14, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11222
- AD was flat

- support 11000

S&P 500 did not have a bullish engulfing bar

My mistake... it was just a big candlestick.

For a bullish engulfing bar, we should have a gap down opening and close above prev day's high. This was not the case.

May 13, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in negative at 11148
- AD was 1:5

- large sell off in other indices seen
- very good support around 11000 levels

Signs of desperation @iam_anandv




Did not know clouds can block radar - hilarious

Twitterati are having a blast over this video....



Interesting

The holy cow becomes the holy terror

In world's fastest growing economy, Indians cutting down on toothpastes and soap

May 12, 2019

When lack of education is an asset (#Marathi, #Music, #Sairaat) @ap_pune

CNX 500 hourly chart

- trend is down
- index closed at support
- bullish above 9350


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down on daily charts
- this fall looks like a correction to the prev rally from 26500
- very good support around 28400

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11000
- resistance 11800

May 11, 2019

Bottom may be closer than you think @ap_pune




Bullish engulfing bar in S&P500

It was one big volatile day in US markets. The S&P 500 was down 1.5% and then recovered smart and closed 0.4% in positive.

The bounce has come from a very important support and has also filled the gap in April.

So correction over?

Here is the chart:

May 10, 2019

NSSO bomb shatters the calm on GDP front, new series data now under darker cloud

Sab Golmaal Hai

In what has suddenly lent a new seriousness to the bickering over contested GDP data, the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) has found that 36 per cent of the companies taken into account for the new GDP calculation are either untraceable or had been categorised wrongly.

There is a high probability that India's growth figures will decline if these "ghost" companies are removed from the data.

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/nsso-bomb-shatters-the-calm-on-gdp-front-new-series-data-now-under-darker-cloud/articleshow/69231296.cms

Clarification at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/extent-of-overestimation-of-gdp-in-all-likelihood-marginalsays-finance-ministry-amid-nsso-report-controversy/articleshow/69271927.cms

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11279
- AD was flat

- support 11000 resistance 11800

Is India in the midst of a "middle income trap"?

"We are heading for a structural slowdown. This is an early warning. The economy since 1991 has been growing not on the basis of exports... but on the basis of what the top 100 million of the Indian population wants to consume," he said.

Those 100 million or 10 crore Indian consumers who were "powering" India's growth story, he said, have started to plateau out.

"It means in short we will not be South Korea. We will not be China. We will be Brazil. We will be South Africa. We will be a middle-income country with large numbers of people in poverty seeing rising crimes. In the history of the world. Countries have avoided the middle income trap but no country once in it, has been able to get out of this," he said.

This phenomenon is known by economists as a middle-income trap.

Read more at https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rathin-roy-crisis-shadow-on-indias-economy-predicts-member-of-pm-narendra-modis-think-tank-2034948

India's official GDP data a joke?

May 9, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.5% in negative at 11301
- AD was 7:10 (not bad)

- support 11000 resistance 11800

Attention Salaried people




May 8, 2019

A businessman who loses his own money is better than the person who loses someone else's money

Awesome words from N N Taleb




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down o  daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in negative at 11359
- AD was 4:13

- significant top around 11800
- minor swing low at 11300
- next good support 11000

May 7, 2019

Lot of stocks breaking supports

ADANIENT
ADANIENT chart

Market outlook - trend reversal?

Daily charts:
- trend is down from today (11500)
- it was up from DEC last year (10800)

- trend will reverse on close above 11800
- this looks like a top this year

- very important support 11000

- AD figures look funny... 26:3... something wrong

India's consumption story... going down down and down

FMCG growth slowdown in March quarter isn’t a temporary blip

India’s famous consumption story is going awry. At least that’s what March quarter results of some large fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies show. Volume growth numbers fell substantially for these companies, with Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) reporting a mere 1% growth in the domestic branded business volumes. A bigger worry was the low-spirited management commentary, which suggests that the worst is far from over.

“When a generally measured management like Hindustan Unilever’s uses the term ‘recession’ in its comments in the post-results presser, it generally isn’t a one-quarter blip," pointed out analysts from Kotak Institutional Equities in a report on 4 May. On Friday, HUL’s management had said, “While FMCG is recession resistant, it is not recession proof."

Management commentary from GCPL and Dabur India Ltd wasn’t inspiring either. These two companies harped ...

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/fmcg-growth-slowdown-in-march-quarter-isn-t-a-temporary-blip-1557170188356.html

May 6, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1% in negative at 11598
- despite gap down opening, there was no selloff afterwards
- AD was 1:2 (not bad)

- VIX up 10% making options very expensive

- swing low 11500

- 11800 has become an important top for the market

May 5, 2019

Kirubakaran Rajendran: An options trader who chose the automation route to success @kirubaakaran

Kirubakaran Rajendran........What I found out was that in most cases, Bank Nifty does not move beyond 1 percent from their open. The data corroborated with the conventional wisdom that says that the market stays in a range 70 percent of the time. Using this information as the basis I designed my options strategy around it.


I also found out that I will make money by selling call and put options if I select strike prices beyond these one percent range. However, there was a problem. If the Bank Nifty goes in one direction and beyond the range, the strategy would lose 2-3 months of profit in one day.

I looked for other data points to protect myself. I looked at open interest data to see where there is a position build-up and sell my options around them.

In this strategy, which I currently trade, I have three stop losses conditions which take me out of the trade if I lose around 1.5 percent of the capital. Using these stop losses, the strategy is now posting around 30-35 percent annualized return. Drawdown has never extended beyond 15 percent. Irrespective of the volatility level, the strategy has made money.

The period when this strategy is making losses is when there is a volatility shift from a low volatility phase to high volatility.

I start off the week with strangles but as the week progresses I take short straddle trades

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/kirubakaran-rajendran-an-options-trader-who-chose-the-automation-route-to-success-3930931.html

CNX Midcap technicals

- nifty is near all time highs but
- the midcap index is still a distance away and is now looking weak

Reversal in CNX IT?

- support 15200
- resistance 16800

- fast move happening in opposite direction

Interesting


BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up
- support 29000
- resistance 30500

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 11500 - 11000




NSE considers caps on Nifty's sector weights; move may hit financial stocks

May 3, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11712
- AD was 7:12

- weekly option series suggests rangebound trading coming week

May 2, 2019

Useful and overlooked skills




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets close flat at 11724
- AD was 7:10

- swing low 11500
- close below 11500 will confirm trend reversal

- NIFTY PE ratio 29+ .. difficult for long term investors to make money at this point

NIFTY @ 12000?