September 30, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11477
- AD was 5:13

- selling pressure was substantial in midcaps and small caps

September 28, 2019

China Unveils "Super Surveillance Camera" That Can Link To Its Social Credit System

Device can identify individual faces out of crowds of tens of thousands.

A new camera with a resolution five times more detailed than the human eye, able to monitor thousands of people in real time and identify individual faces has been unveiled by Chinese scientists, prompting renewed fears about mass surveillance.

ABC News in Australia reports that the new 500 megapixel cloud camera AI system, dubbed a ‘super camera’, was revealed at China’s International Industry Fair last week.

The camera system, equipped with state of the art facial recognition utilities, was designed by Fudan University and Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The designers claim that the system can detect and identify thousands of human faces or other objects in real time and instantly locate specific targets in environments such as crowded stadiums.

Of course, it would work equally as well at protests.


Beautiful picture taken from ISS of Soyuz launch

NIFTY PE ratio

- the sudden spike is due to markets rally 8% in 2 days with no change in EPS
- and the fall is due to the "sudden" increase in EPS
- only explanation I can think for this is reduction of corporate tax is being factored in

See more charts at

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week, nifty open gap up but failed to rally further
- close was near open thus forming a spinning top
- this indicates a tussle between bulls and bears

September 27, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.5% in negative at 11512
- AD was 7:11

- inside bar formed today
- last 3 days, range contraction going on

- market is consolidating
- price wise correction to 11200 is welcome

Something funny about NIFTY PE ratio

How come it has dropped by 10% in less than a week?

September 26, 2019

Buy signals

LAST updated: 26-SEP-2019 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.2% in positive at 11573
- AD was 2:1

- a gradual correction to 11200 is welcome

September 25, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.3% in negative at 11440
- AD was 1:2

- VIX down 3% to 16%

- after a 1000 point rally in 2 days, a pause / correction is welcome
- deep support around 11200

- only negative today is 9% increase in nifty futures open interest

3 min charts:
- trades are as shown
- yesterday's low was 11560 so this was the trigger level
- ignored 1st short signal as SL was very deep
- took 2nd short, covered near 11500 F
- traded long, exited at breakeven
- took 3rd short and exited around 11460 F

- tomorrow decision levels are 11440 , 11500 and 10600 F

US markets down but nothing to worry

See gap and support

Will this gap in NIFTY be filled?

This cow tried a high fibre all you can eat data plan

One of the best tweets I have read... the replies are even better

September 24, 2019

Valuations... overpriced or underpriced?

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat at 11588
- AD was 4:5

- after a 8% rise in 2 days, some consolidation is inevitable

- VIX is at 16.8% making options very expensive

Stocks at 52 week high


Multi-Time Frame Analysis by @technovestor

September 23, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 2.9% in positive at 11600
- AD was 2;1

- VIX up 9%.... why? it should be down 8-10%

- Nifty futures OI dropped 9%
- this means rally was because of short covering

- highest OI is around 11000.
- why has this not shifted to say 11300 or 11500?
- are writers expecting a correction?

Something funny going on NIFTY 11500 CE

- I was positional long in 11500 CE but when tried to book profits, I saw some silly rates
- the 11500 CE was trading around 78 for a good 20 minutes.. see first chart
- there was a huge sell order and I think this could not be cancelled
- during this time, 11600 CE was around 90!.. see second chart

11600 CE

The power of tiny gains


September 21, 2019

Option writers this Friday

Image result for option writers elephants shit

How India's corporate tax compares with neighbours


NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up (from this week)
- huge engulfing bar formed
- market crosses AUG master candle

- next resistance 11500-11600
- support 10600 to hold this year?

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up now
- triple bottom / swing low formed around 26500
- next resistance 30500

September 20, 2019

Open Interest analysis

Long build up:

Long unwinding:

Short build up:

Short covering:

Swing trading signals :: 20-SEP-2019

Swing trading signals :: 20-SEP-2019

  • This report is for your personal use only and is valid for next trading day.
  • Signals are generated using the kplswing indicator.
  • Algorithm: BUY signal is generated if a stock closes above 20 days high and vice versa.
  • Ignore signal if stock is rangebound for extended periods of time.
  • Hint: give preference to stocks making 52 week highs or all time highs or breaking out from a range.
  • Stock name is highlighted in case of first signal of the trend.
  • Exits: There are no targets and exits are based on a trailing stoploss. Returns are whatever the market gives - 20%, 100%, etc.
  • Trailing SL: For long positions, use last week's low or 10 days low.
  • Click on stock name link for charts, more info etc
  • Risk Management: Limit investment per stock to 3% of trading capital.
  • Important: Trade in cash only and never in futures.
This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell

This is bad news for citizens of any country... it never ends well

Note: this has nothing to do with the current government. Anyone in power is bound to do this...


Market outlook + Nirmala Sitharaman candle formed

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- today markets closed 5.3% in positive at 11274
- AD was 13:5

- today was biggest green candle in past 4-5 years
- I call this the Nirmala Sitharaman candle (history was made)
- as it came on back of heavy reforms
- these reforms were actually like a budget except that
- it was more bolder than what was presented in the past
- wish this was done before

- the size of the candle and location means 10600 may hold this year
- resistance around 11600 levels

- today a lot of people lost money by taking wrong positions or
- not having any risk management
- sometimes you may miss a move... this is ok
- but do not ever get caught on the wrong side

Was there any hint of trend reversal?
- yes... number of stocks making new 52 week lows had dropped dramatically
- a lot of buy signals were coming in delivery trades which we took
- but in nifty unless some swing high is crossed, you cannot trade long
- it is then sheer bad luck that a market gains 5% in a day and then crosses swing high
- so the key takeaway is you cannot capture every single move
- yet to meet a person who has been able to do this consistently (trollers please note)

This candle will henceforth be known as the Nirmala Sitharaman candle

FM unveils $20b tax booster for India Inc; D-Street sees biggest rally in a decade

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday delivered a major tax bonanza to domestic businesses and manufacturing firms, lowering corporate tax rates to one of the lowest levels in Southeast Asia and allowing new manufacturers to avail minimum corporate tax at 15 per cent.

Sitharaman said the revenue foregone on reduction in corporate tax and other relief measures will be Rs 1.45 lakh crore annually, which means a $20 billion booster to an economy that g ..


Factory investment at 3-year low of Rs 3.31 lakh cr in 2017-18: Survey

Factory investment in 2017-18 hit a three-year low of Rs 3.31 lakh crore in actual terms, according to the annual survey of industries by the Statistics and Programme Implementation Ministry. Factory investment measured in terms of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was Rs 3.79 lakh crore and Rs 3.69 lakh crore in 2015-16 and 2016-17, respectively, provisional estimates of the survey for 2017-18 showed.

The previous low of GFCF in actual terms was recorded at Rs 3.23 lakh crore in 2014-15.

The Gross Fixed Capital Formation is a barometer of investment in any sector or segment.


September 19, 2019

Don't tamper with nature

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.25% in negative at 10705
- AD was 4:13

- next support 10600 and then 10500
- this is another congestion area

September 18, 2019

Trending stocks

LAST updated: 18-SEP-2019 
DABUR chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 10840
- AD was flat

- VIX down 5%
- option writers expect 10800 to hold

ITC generated 23% CAGR since 1975


Some Daytraders making money consistently

September 17, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2.5% in negative at 10818
- AD was 5:13

- VIX up 7%
- today's fall gets the H&S rejected

- only 45 stocks made new 52 lows - this is good sign

- note we are still trading within AUG high low range

Our PM is unlucky twice

RBI governor "surprised" by bad GDP figures

September 16, 2019

The few immutable truths of finance – the stuff no one argues about by Morgan Housel

The few immutable truths of finance – the stuff no one argues about because there are right answers – are what matter most. But we hear about them the least, specifically because no one argues about them.

Spend most of your time contextualizing those truths within your own goals, needs and experiences, realizing that it’s OK if others disagree with your views and you disagree with theirs.

When you watch, listen, and read about other people’s views, the most important takeaways are insights into how people deal with risk and uncertainty, because those are the broad lessons that are likely to apply to the greatest number of people, including yourself.

Learning from others is a huge part of investing – every mistake has already been made and you can add years to your life learning from them vicariously. But most investment debates can and should be replaced by acknowledging that reasonable people can disagree because we’re all different and driven by things that are hard to quantify. The fun part of behavioral finance is learning about how flawed other people can be. The hard part is trying to figure out how flawed you are, and what makes sense to you but would seem crazy to others.


Was the Saudi Arabia drone attack a black swan event?

The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild. Read more at

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

  • The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  • The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  • The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

The 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack was a drone attack that targeted the Saudi Aramco oil production facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia on 14 September 2019.

The attack caused large fires at the factories which, according to the Saudi Arabian interior ministry, were put out several hours later. Both facilities, however, were shut down until repairs were made, cutting Saudi Arabia's oil production by about half – representing about 5% of global oil production – and causing some destabilization of global financial markets.


According to me, this is a black swan event:

  • The event was unpredictable (to the observer)
  • The event has widespread ramifications
  • After the event has occurred, people will assert that it was indeed explainable and predictable

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% down at 11003
- we had a gap down opening followed by flat closing
- inside bar formed

- AD was 5:4 ... this is very good

September 15, 2019

Improve sentiments

September 14, 2019

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- markets doing timepass for past few weeks
- sustaining above 11200 can be bullish

- next support 10500-10000

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- bullish above 28500
- all activity happening within AUG high low range

September 13, 2019

Some buy signals

Stocks at 52 week high

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.85% in positive at 11076
- AD was almost 2:1
- VIX down 7%

- inverted H&S in making
- confirmation will be breakout above 11200

September 12, 2019

Stocks to watch

LAST updated: 12-SEP-2019 
HEG chart

"Math Didn't Help Einstein Discover Gravity": Piyush Goyal On Economy

Days after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman attributed the slowdown in the auto sector to millennials using Ola and Uber, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said that we should not be concerned with GDP maths, since “maths never helped Einstein discover gravity”.

“Don’t go by all these calculations you see on TV, that if the country has to become a $5 trillion economy, it will have to grow at 12% but right now it is currently growing at 6-7%,” Mr. Goyal said. “Don’t get into those maths. Those maths have never helped Einstein discover gravity.”


Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in negative at 10981
- AD was 5:4... good sign
- stocks at 52 week high/ low indicates no alarm

- possible inverted H&S seen with neckline around 11200
- confirmation will be crossover above 11200
- till then it has no meaning

A Millennial’s (Guilt-Ridden) Response to Nirmala Sitharaman

It has come to my attention that you hold the generation of millennials, of which I am part, responsible for the decline in the auto sector. 

You said, “Some studies do tell us that the mindset of millennials, who are now preferring not to commit an EMI for buying an automobile, instead prefer to take Ola, Uber, everything else, or take the metro.”

Mea culpa. I agree with your description of our mindset – I have no intention of buying a car. But that is because I simply can’t afford it. As you say, I’m disinclined to commit to an EMI – perhaps a sign of the commitment phobia my generation has also been accused of, given that we now also marry less, don’t buy homes, and aren’t having children.

What do we like? Netflix, waffling on the internet, and we seem to be absolutely bonkers about make-up. But when we’re swapping swatches, you, as someone who is far more sΓ©rieux and important, would probably be more concerned with the lipstick index, the fun little economic theory which suggests that people buy more lipstick when the market is tanking.

What’s your favourite shade, Ms. Sitharaman?

Currently, the lipstick index shows an economy in the red.

You see, I am not alone, Ms. Sitharaman –


Why is BHEL at 15 year low?


September 11, 2019

Twitter to FM: Why Are Truck Sales Down if Millennials Prefer Ola?

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11036
- AD was 2:1

- small trading range

Engineers as delivery boys

September 10, 2019

Why business is suffering.... need a new FM

Why are people not using Ola/ Uber which is blamed by FM for slowdown on Indian auto industry

Indian economy problems solved by FM... need a new FM

NOTE: Ola/ Uber have been there for many ears and there was no problem. Next, the FM will blame real estate slowdown because people want to rent and not buy.

Best solution: new FM required who understands what is happening.

Hint: we need new roads but govt has no money for this. So how do you resolve this?


YESBANK ... diamonds are forever.. sorry not forever


September 9, 2019

100 days report card NDA 2.0


Stocks at 52 week high

Open interest analysis

Long build up:

Long unwinding:

Short build up:

Short covering:

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in positive at 11003
- AD was 2:1

Evolution of a trader

No photo description available.

September 8, 2019

I am not anti Modi or pro Modi


Is the government clueless?

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- past 3 weeks, signs of buying coming at lower levels
- no of stocks making new 52 weeks low has reduced substantially
- index flirting with 11000 level for a month now

- support 10600-10000 resistance 11200-11500

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- support 26500-26000
- resistance 27500-28500

September 7, 2019

One business, One nation, One bank account and now One masala dosa

...So he explained further, “Saar, There is lot of tax evasion happening in GST where multiple bank accounts are used. So the government has passed a law which says, One business, One nation, One bank account. The food ministry however objected to the law and pointed out that this does not solve the poverty problem because there are a lot of people who order and waste food and wasting food is the same as evading tax. So the GST department passed an order, which said, since our tax rate is only 5%, we should also restrict food sales to one item per person per day. That is why we can’t give you more than one masala dosa per day”.

I persisted because I was hungry. And then Mr. Sadasivam said even more strange things, “Saar, I can’t give you a masala dosa, but I can give you any other item, but only once. So you can eat idli, set dosa, rava pongal etc. That is possible because we have one nation, one tax, one bank account, one masala dosa, one set dosa, one pav bhaji”.


September 6, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in positive at 10946
- AD was 2:1
- VIX down 7%

September 5, 2019

S&P500 chart

- does anyone remember this setup posted few weeks ago?
- after posting, the markets came to lower end of the range
- only to bounce from there
- and now we have a breakout on the upside

- let us see if this can sustain

Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10848
- AD was 11:6 (very good)

- support 10600 resistance 11200

Wish I had a doctor like this


Does anyone remember the hype around RPOWER IPO?

September 4, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 10845
- AD was flat

Complete waste of tax payers money

September 3, 2019

September 2, 2019

Economy in crisis: Housing giant HDIL sinks, insolvency proceeding begins

In what is seen as a sign of impending economic crisis, the Mumbai based housing giant, Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd (HDIL) has gone insolvent.

The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has ordered insolvency proceeding against the company, following which, the HDIL has appointed Abhay Narayan Manudhane as the interim resolution professional (IRP) to run the insolvency process on Friday.

In a regulatory filing, HDIL has stated that the IRP has been appointed to carry out the functions as mentioned under Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC).

Earlier this month, the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) had admitted an application filed by Bank of India to initiate insolvency proceedings against debt-ridden realty firm HDIL.


Private security agencies may become largest job creators, says Piyush Goyal

After samosa + tea stall, pan shop, taxi drivers, working as watchman/ security guard to be the next big employment opportunity.


The Talent Myth: Are smart people overrated?

This "talent mind-set" is the new orthodoxy of American management. It is the intellectual justification for why such a high premium is placed on degrees from first-tier business schools, and why the compensation packages for top executives have become so lavish.

In the modern corporation, the system is considered only as strong as its stars, and, in the past few years, this message has been preached by consultants and management gurus all over the world. None, however, have spread the word quite so ardently as McKinsey, and, of all its clients, one firm took the talent mind-set closest to heart. It was a company where McKinsey conducted twenty separate projects, where McKinsey's billings topped ten million dollars a year, where a McKinsey director regularly attended board meetings, and where the C.E.O. himself was a former McKinsey partner.

The company, of course, was Enron.

The Enron scandal is now almost a year old. The reputations of Jeffrey Skilling and Kenneth Lay, the company's two top executives, have been destroyed. Arthur Andersen, Enron's auditor, has been driven out of business, and now investigators have turned their attention to Enron's investment bankers. The one Enron partner that has escaped largely unscathed is McKinsey, which is odd, given that it essentially created the blueprint for the Enron culture. Enron was the ultimate "talent" company.


How to trade breakouts and pullbacks

No matter how many entry techniques you learn, there are only 2 ways to enter a trade.

On a pullback. On a breakout. And that’s it.

But many of you struggle with this concept.

  • You probably have thoughts like…
  • How do I know where a pullback will end?
  • Breakout tends to fail, I hate trading breakouts.
  • Should I wait for confirmation, or not?

Don’t worry.

Because in this post, I’ll teach you the essentials of trading pullbacks and breakouts.

You’ll learn stuff like:

  • The 5 levels the market will likely retrace to (so you can “predict” market turning points)
  • How to find high probability pullback trades
  • How to spot explosive breakout trades before it occurs
  • And much more
  • Are you ready?

Then let’s begin…


Top Strategies for Mastering Pullback Trading

Pullbacks, in terms of technical analysis, generate all sorts of trading opportunities after an active trend thrusts higher or lower, but profiting with this classic strategy is harder than it looks. For starters, the security you just bought on the dips or sold short into resistance can keep on going, forcing your position into a sizable loss, or it can just sit there gathering dust while you miss out on a dozen other trades. So what skills are needed to book reliable profits with pullback strategies, how aggressively should those profits be taken and how do you admit you are wrong without breaking the bank? In this article, we will consider some historical examples to illustrate these concepts.


Let’s outline the most favorable technical conditions for a pullback to turn on a dime as soon as you take a risk in the opposite direction. First, you need a strong trend so that other pullback players will be lined up right behind you, ready to jump in and turn your idea into a reliable profit. Securities lifting to new highs or dumping to new lows fulfill this requirement after they push well beyond a notable breakout or breakdown level. Vertical action into a peak or trough is also needed for consistent profits, especially on higher-than-normal volume, because it encourages rapid price movement after you get positioned. It is also best when the trending security turns quickly after topping or bottoming out, without building a sizable consolidation or trading range. This is needed because the intervening range will undermine the profit potential during the subsequent bounce or rollover .


Trading breakouts and breakout pullbacks

Every time when the market breaks out through a certain resistance or support level, there will be a pullback sooner or later. If the price returns to a few pips of the entry point and tests it, this is called a breakout test. The test can happen as soon as the next bar after the breakout, more than 10 bars later, or there can even be several tests of that level.

Breakout tests are important because they provide traders with a relatively reliable entry signal when the test is successful and the trend resumes (a breakout pullback is confirmed).

Basically, when the price breaks out of a trading range, but fails to retain its momentum and later reenters the trading range, it’s called a false breakout (failed breakout, or fakeout). If, however, there is a pullback to the breakout (the price halts around the breakout point, instead of entering


Basics of pullbacks -

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