April 30, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% positive at 10740
- AD was positive
- immediate support 10500
- option writing resistance 11000

April 29, 2018

Test drive a new possible breakout - EXIDEIND

- invest 3% of your capital
- SL 220
- if SL is hit, your loss is 0.3% of your capital
- trailing SL is prev month's low of big candle

- so easy ... entry exit rules

AJANTA PHARMA 10 year CAGR 63%

Stocks like these rarely have any correction so if you wait for a buy on dips opportunity you will never get a chance to enter.

Just chase these breakouts when they happen or do SIP.

LUPIN 10 year CAGR 19% even after a 50% drop over 2 years

YESBANK... new breakout possible?


RELIANCE at ATH and fresh breakout


OFSS retest of all time highs and then new breakout?


M&M excellent breakout


IBULHSGFIN rangebound for 6 months


HINDUNILVR breakout... trend still up

DABUR breakout

BRITTANIA new breakout new highs... still long


MRF new breakout


SENSEX spot hourly charts

- trend is up
- support 34600-34200


CNX IT technicals

- some signs of profit booking
- support 13400-12200

NIFTY spot hourly charts

Trend is clearly up... SL 10645-10500


April 28, 2018

JAN 2017: How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 10000
- above 11200, expect a blast

- option writers expect 11000 to provide strong resistance

BANKNIFTY technicals

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- above 25450, expect more gains
- support 24600



Weekly charts
- resistance seen at 26000
- support 23600

April 27, 2018

Market oulook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 10692
- AD was positive
- option writing resistance 11000

Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan) on volatility

Image result for jamie dimon"We are always prepared for volatility and rapidly moving markets – they should surprise no one.

I am a little perplexed when people are surprised by large market moves.Oftentimes, it takes only an unexpected supply/demand imbalance of a few percent and changing sentiment to dramatically move markets. We have seen that condition occur recently in oil, but I have also seen it multiple times in my career in cotton, corn, aluminium, soybeans, chicken, beef, copper, iron – you get the point.

Each industry or commodity has continually changing supply and demand, different investment horizons to add or subtract supply, varying marginal and fixed costs, and different inventory and supply lines. In all cases, extreme volatility can be created by slightly changing factors.

It is fundamentally the same for stocks, bonds, and interest rates and currencies. Changing expectations, whether around inflation, growth or recession (yes, there will be another recession – we just don’t know when), supply and demand, sentiment and other factors, can cause drastic volatility."

Swing trading signals :: 26-APR-2018

  • This report is for your personal use only and is valid for next trading day.
  • Signals are generated using the kplswing indicator.
  • Algorithm: BUY signal is generated if a stock closes above 20 days high.
  • Stock name is highlighted in case of first signal of the trend.
  • Exits: There are no targets and exits are based on a trailing stoploss. Returns are whatever the market gives - 20%, 100%, etc.
  • Stoploss: use fixed SL to limit losses and trailing SL for profit booking.
  • Trailing SL: For long positions, use weekly low or 10 days low. Default is 20 days low.
  • Click on stock name link for charts, more info etc
  • Limit investment per stock to 5% of trading capital or limit loss per trade to max 1% of your trading capital.
  • Important: Trade in cash only and never in futures.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| good liquidity - ||||| excellent liquidity. Avoid stocks with ||||| low liquidity.
This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell

April 26, 2018

Interesting article on how science saw exoplanets in a bunch of flashing pixels

Our milky way has 400+ billion stars and now we know each of the stars has several planets orbiting the star. Technology has reached a stage where a slight drop in a star's luminance is enough to tell a lot about the transiting planet. But how is this possible?

Source: https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/nasa-keplers-scientists-are-doing-what-seems-impossible-turning-pixels-into-planets-43fc0ee57ac2

The Kepler telescope has discovered a solar system called Trappist-1. This is what the star looks like. Note that no planets are seen as yet in this picture.

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% positive at 10618
- AD was negative
- close was above 10500.... this means option writers won again this series
- next series, option writers are bearish and see limited upsides - 11000 resistance.

April 25, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.4% in negative at 10570
- AD was 1:2
- so far the option writing level of 10500 is being defended


Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy Near April 2018 Expiry

Nifty opened almost flat at 10578 and traded with positive bias for rest of the day. Nifty traded in 10569-10636 range and closed 29 points up at 10614.

Yesterday, short term outlook was bullish with 10509-10409 as short term support range with the possibility of decline towards this support range.

Trading strategy was to buy Nifty calls of May Expiry if get in 10509-10409 range or Buy Nifty for Intraday if “breaks above 10591 without breaking below 10568” with stoploss of 10567. Nifty breaks above 10591 and then bounced further to register day’s high 10636 without breaking below 10568, trade gave 40-45 points profit. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/nifty-outlook-and-trading-strategy-near-april-2018-expiry/

Hot stocks and charts

Hot stocks

LAST updated: 24-APR-2018 
AUBANK
AUBANK chart

Who said what...match the following

Don't waste your time...

April 24, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 10614
- AD ... error in NSE site
- option writing support 10500
- VIX down 10%... no fear in market

Are we living in a simulation?

This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true:

(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;

(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);

(3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation.

Read more at https://www.simulation-argument.com/

Explanation:

Many works of science fiction as well as some forecasts by serious technologists and futurologists predict that enormous amounts of computing power will be available in the future.

Let us suppose for a moment that these predictions are correct. One thing that later generations might do with their super-powerful computers is run detailed simulations of their forebears or of people like their forebears. Because their computers would be so powerful, they could run a great many such simulations.

Suppose that these simulated people are conscious (as they would be if the simulations were sufficiently fine-grained and if a certain quite widely accepted position in the philosophy of mind is correct). Then it could be the case that the vast majority of minds like ours do not belong to the original race but rather to people simulated by the advanced descendants of an original race. It is then possible to argue that, if this were the case, we would be rational to think that we are likely among the simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones.

Therefore, if we don't think that we are currently living in a computer simulation, we are not entitled to believe that we will have descendants who will run lots of such simulations of their forebears.

— Nick Bostrom, Are you living in a computer simulation?

What will be the impact of physical delivery of stock derivatives?

The problem with physical delivery is that it is close to impossible to short-sell a stock in the Indian market. We have seen this in the cash segment. While a short-selling mechanism exists in theory, shorting stocks outside the F&O segment, except in day trades is impractical.

The short-seller must borrow stocks from some institution that holds it in the portfolio. This involves first, the willingness of such an institution to lend stock. It also involves paying interest, and having to buyback from the market to replace the stock and complete the trade.

Read more at http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/what-will-be-the-impact-of-physical-delivery-of-stock-derivatives-118042300171_1.html

April 23, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 10585
- AD was positive
- option writing support 10500
- resistance around 10600-10650 range

The Headwinds faced by Indian Equities

By Manish Bhandari, Vallum Capital

In many of my writings on the blog and public discussions. I have sounded a note of caution that Indian economic growth and its reflection in the stock markets is masked more by economic value shifts rather sustained value creation by the economy. The shift of value from PSU Bank to Private Sector Banks and NBFC, MTNL/BSNL to private telecom players, Air India to private aviation players,Railways to private logistic players, SME/MSME to large Industrial duopolies, etc. The market economics should have had addressed supply constraint in each industry.

Secondly, over that last one and half decade, our country has become a sustained consumer rather the producer of technologies thereby leading to ever-increasing trade deficits. Such inefficiencies and inability to create cutting-edge businesses are reflected in the jobless growth of India.

Thirdly, Indian equity market is facing a shortage of regular supply of high quality globally competitive businesses. On the domestic front, many MNCs are on the path to delist,and upcoming global businesses in India are held in the private domain.

Google autocomplete suggestions... politicians are like



And the result for the first search gives this...

Image result for politicians are like diapers

April 22, 2018

Nassim Taleb Warns Americans Should "Fear The 2% - The Intellectuals & Politicians"

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-21/nassim-taleb-warns-americans-should-fear-2-intellectuals-politicians

Skin in the game means you own your own risk. It means people who make decisions in any walk of life should never be insulated from the consequences of those decisions, period. If you’re a helicopter repairman, you should be a helicopter rider. If you decide to invade Iraq, the people who vote for it should have children in the military. And if you’re making economic decisions, you should bear the cost if you’re wrong.

People ask me my forecast for the economy when they should be asking me what I have in my portfolio. Don’t make pronouncements on what could happen in the future if you’re immune from the consequences. In French, they use the same word for wallet and portfolio.

I have never, ever borrowed a penny. So I have zero credit record. No loans, no mortgage, nothing. Ever. When I had no money, I rented. I have an allergy to borrowing and a scorn for people who are in debt, and I don’t hide it. I follow the Romans’ attitude that debtors are not free people.

I carry euros, dollars, and British pounds. What I do with my money is personal. People who say they give it to charity, that’s a no-no in my book. Nobody should ever talk about a charitable act in public.

Better to miss a zillion opportunities than blow up once. I learned this at my first job, from the veteran traders at a New York bank that no longer exists. Most people don’t understand how to handle uncertainty. They shy away from small risks, and without realizing it, they embrace the big, big risk. Businessmen who are consistently successful have the exact opposite attitude: Make all the mistakes you want, just make sure you’re going to be there tomorrow.

Don’t invest any energy in bargaining except when the zeros become large. Lose the small games and save your efforts for the big ones.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, so long as you pay the price. A used-car salesman speaks well, they’re convincing, but ultimately, they are benefiting even if someone else is harmed by their advice. A bullshitter is not someone who’s wrong, it’s someone who’s insulated from their mistakes.

What is in his wallet? Euros, dollars, and British pounds.

There is less “skin in the game” today than there was fifty years ago, or even twenty years ago. More people determine the fates of others without having to pay the consequences.

Skin in the game means you own your own risk. It means people who make decisions in any walk of life should never be insulated from the consequences of those decisions, period. If you’re a helicopter repairman, you should be a helicopter rider. If you decide to invade Iraq, the people who vote for it should have children in the military. And if you’re making economic decisions, you should bear the cost if you’re wrong.

Ninety-eight percent of Americans - plumbers, dentists, bus drivers - have skin in the game. We have to worry about the 2 percent - the intellectuals and politicians making the big decisions who don’t have skin in the game and are messing the whole thing up for everybody else. Thirty years ago, the French National Assembly was composed of shop owners, farmers, doctors, veterinarians, and small-town lawyers—people involved in daily activities. Today, it’s entirely composed of professional politicians—people who are just divorced from real life. America is a little better, but we’re heading that way.

Money can’t buy happiness, but the absence of money can cause unhappiness. Money buys freedom: intellectual freedom, freedom to choose who you vote for, to choose what you want to do professionally. But having what I call “fuck you” money requires a huge amount of discipline. The minute you go a penny over, then you lose your freedom again. If money is the cause of your worry, then you have to restructure your life.

The best money I’ve ever spent has been spent on books. The stupidest thing I’ve ever spent money on? Books. Also, I cannot understand why anyone would spend any amount to enhance their social status.

If nobody’s paying my salary, I don’t have to define myself. I find it arrogant to call yourself a philosopher or an intellectual, so I call myself a flaneur and I refuse all honors. As Cato once said, it’s better to be asked why there is no statue in your name than why there is one.

The greatest image ever released of the distant Universe

The full UV-visible-IR composite of the XDF; the greatest image ever released of the distant Universe. 

In a region just 1/32,000,000th of the sky, we’ve found 5,500 identifiable galaxies, all owing to the Hubble Space Telescope. 

Hundreds of the most distant ones seen here are already unreachable, even at the speed of light, due to the relentless expansion of space.

A galaxy will typically contain few billion to several trillion stars.

April 21, 2018

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- very good support at 10000
- H&S is seen and right shoulder may be getting completed.
- if true, then a retest and break of 10000 is possible

- if markets sustain above 10600, then rally to 11000 is possible (H&S invalidated)

Option writers are playing it very safe for next month... their short positions are built in 10000 put and 11000 call strike price... makes sense.

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- a swing high seems to have developed at 25450
- support 24000-23600

April 20, 2018

H&S pattern on hourly chart achieves target

Remember this post?

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up  on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10564
- AD was negative
- VIX down 6%
- option writing support 10500

April 19, 2018

BPCL triangle breakdown on weekly charts

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10565
- AD was positive
- option writing support 10500 F

So the root cause of black money is the salaried class?




Another puzzle



I took about 4 minutes... but the answer I have got does not have whole numbers so I am now not sure if my answers are correct.

Will post my answers by 6pm.

April 18, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF close 0.2% in negative at 10526
- AD was negative
- option writing support 10400

April 17, 2018

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 17-APR-2018 
AMBUJACEM
AMBUJACEM chart

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed marginally in positive at 10549
- AD was slightly positive

- expecting resistance near 10650 spot

- option writing support 10400
- notice how put writing support has jumped from 10000 to 10300 and now 10400


Doctors, lawyers, MBAs in the race to be Mumbai Police constables

April 16, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed  0.46% in positive at 10528
- AD was negative
- option writing support 10300

- rejecting inverted H&S on daily charts

Trauma Surgery - must watch video for traders

As a kid, I was always fascinated with surgery. This fascination persists till today and I do watch a lot of videos on Youtube.

Some time ago, for lack of anything to do, I chanced upon this video. I have seen this since then several times and thought of sharing this.

The case is pretty straight forward: a 45-50 year old man slips 25-30 feet while on a trek and is admitted in a hospital with probable pelvic fracture and low blood pressure. There is no visible injury.

In the trauma centre, the surgeon is worried about the persistent low blood pressure inspite of several units of blood transfusion. Chest x rays and abdominal scans give a negative and now the guess is the pelvic area. This can be checked only in an angiogram suite and not in the trauma room. But the falling blood pressure means unless the patient is stabilised, he cannot be taken.

The situation deteriorates rapidly due to the massive internal bleeding. The falling blood pressure leads to 3 cardiac arrests. Watch the video to see what happens next.

This video is part of a series of videos shot by Discovery TV and is recommended for traders.





April 14, 2018

CNXIT - good example of breakout and sup/ res formations

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- probable H&S on weekly charts
- this has bearish implications if 10000 breaks this year

- sustaining above 10600 will be bullish

BANKNIFTY Daily and Weekly charts

Daily charts
- trend is up
- swing low 23600-24000
- resistance 25800

April 13, 2018

Head and Shoulder failures are common but you can still make very good money




Farming in Netherlands - doing more with less... excellent read

The Netherlands is a small, densely populated country, with more than 1,300 inhabitants per square mile. It’s bereft of almost every resource long thought to be necessary for large-scale agriculture. Yet it’s the globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by value, second only to the United States, which has 270 times its landmass. How on Earth have the Dutch done it?



A sea of greenhouses surrounds a farmer’s home in the Westland region of the Netherlands. The Dutch have become world leaders in agricultural innovation, pioneering new paths to fight hunger.




Furrows of artificial light lend an otherworldly aura to Westland, the greenhouse capital of the Netherlands. Climate-controlled farms such as these grow crops around the clock and in every kind of weather.

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.2% in positive at 10480
- AD was flat (slightly negative)
- option writing support 10000

H&S formation
- we are at neckline now
- notice slower pace of rally as the 'head' part is getting completed
- if H&S plays out, a correction to 10200 is possible

- the bigger H&S on weekly charts will kick only if 10000 breaks... till then ignore it.

Nifty Giraffe to start trading in Singapore?

An easy puzzle...

- Should not take more than 2 minutes
- will post answer by 7 pm

April 12, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10459
- AD was negative at 2:3
- option writing support at 10300

- note formation of inverted H&S shoulder with neckline at 10480. A correction here can form the right shoulder. If true, then buy the dip for a breakout above 10480.

In trading... if it feels good, don't do it.

Charts do not forecast prices

April 11, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10417
- AD was negative at 2:3
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10500

April 10, 2018

The Failures of Anti-Trumpism

Over the past year, those of us in the anti-Trump camp have churned out billions of words critiquing the president. The point of this work is to expose the harm President Trump is doing, weaken his support and prevent him from doing worse. And by that standard, the anti-Trump movement is a failure.

We have persuaded no one. Trump’s approval rating is around 40 percent, which is basically unchanged from where it’s been all along.

We have not hindered him. Trump has more power than he did a year ago, not less.

We have not contained him. Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party is complete. Eighty-nine percent of Republicans now have a positive impression of the man. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 59 percent of Republicans consider themselves more a supporter of Trump than of the Republican Party.

On trade, immigration, entitlement reform, spending, foreign policy, race relations and personal morality, this is Trump’s party, not Reagan’s or anyone else’s.

A lot of us never-Trumpers assumed momentum would be on our side as his scandals and incompetences mounted. It hasn’t turned out that way. I almost never meet a Trump supporter who has become disillusioned. I often meet Republicans who were once ambivalent but who have now joined the Trump train

Read more at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/opinion/trump-republicans.html

Four reasons to start considering a bottom in US stocks




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- markets closed marginally in positive at 10402
- AD was flat
- option writing support 10000
- expecting resistance around 10500

- if markets reverse from 10500, correction to 10200 possible.

Big difference between reality and what you see

I keep getting fascinated by reality and how we human beings interpret the world. Since our primary interaction with the world is via our senses, it means the brain is doing the processing (the eyes don't see... the brain does).

So the way my brain processes information can be completely different from the way your brain interprets the environment. Net result is my version of reality can never match your version.

And it is very very easy to fool the human brain.

In this picture, the blue lines are parallel... in a similar vein, I can show you static images but your brain will assume they are moving.

So how much can you or how much should you trust your brain?


US China trade wars....the Trump way of doing business

When a car is sent to the United States from China, there is a Tariff to be paid of 2 1/2%. When a car is sent to China from the United States, there is a Tariff to be paid of 25%. Does that sound like free or fair trade. No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE - going on for years!


Translation: The trade war started long ago. We’re losing.


Axis Bank CEO leaving .... stock up .... next ICICIBANK?

AXISBANK up 4.8% today... let's see close.



Does market expect new CEO at ICICIBANK shortly? stock up 4.5%




Occam's razor : Theory of least assumptions

Occam's razor (or Ockham's razor) is a principle from philosophy.

Suppose there exists two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the simpler one is usually better.

Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is.

Read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

April 9, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed 0.46% in positive at 10380
- AD was 3:2
- option writing support 10000

How Trump Is Shaking Up the Book Industry

Donald Trump’s election victory plunged America’s elite, liberal and coastal circles into an identity crisis, as journalists and pundits who had been so sure of a Trump loss grappled with charges of insularity and willful disregard. They penned introspective essays and took deep dives into the statistics only to conclude that they were indeed elite, liberal and coastal.

But in sleek SoHo penthouses, Brooklyn brownstones and Upper West Side caf├ęs, a community that is perhaps the ultimate bubble—the New York fiction publishing industry—is still struggling to come to terms with its isolation. Its members are asking themselves how literature became so detached from the contours of American life in so many parts of the country. The perspectives of the white working classes and the rural poor, the demographics that handed Trump the presidency in 2016, have been largely absent from the novels printed every year. And as these demographics become increasingly central to the country’s political conversations, the publishing industry is wondering what it needs to do to change.

“I feel ashamed,” Lorin Stein, former editor-in-chief of the Paris Review and former editor at large for publishing house Farrar, Straus, Giroux, told me last year, before he resigned from both positions. “For a long time, the publishing establishment pretended to speak for more people than it really did. And we can’t pretend that anymore.” He paused, searching for the right words as he admitted, “I wasn’t focused on how closed off our worlds have become from one another … but thanks to the election, I have a very different sense of what kind of marketplace we are all in.”

Read more at https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/04/07/how-trump-shook-up-the-book-industry-217832

Mind twister: Battle of English and Mathematics

Don't spend more than 2 minutes on this...




Interesting perspective on market manipulatione

The very statement of "that market is manipulated" is manipulative in itself.

Every person that puts in an order is manipulating the market.

Crying manipulation is a defensive reaction to simply answer the unknown.

All you should care about is what you do with information at hand

April 7, 2018

H&S pattern on NIFTY EOD and Weekly charts

- neckline around 10000
- right shoulder is being formed
- will discard H&S view if nifty sustains above 10600
- high chances of reversal if current rally loses steam and volume drops

US markets down 2% on Friday. So what?

Past 1-2 weeks, US markets have been trading in a range between 2560 and 2680 (SPX). This has resulted in very wild and volatile moves of 2% or more either up or down.

So this becomes big news like US market tanked 2.2% but since all this is happening within a range, one can safely ignore what is happening.

Till markets break out from the range, nothing much will happen.

People trading the range on lower timeframe charts would have made fantastic money though.

Following chart is 30 min

April 6, 2018

April 5, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is UP on daily charts (first time since the correction)
- today, NF gained 2% and closed at 10325
- AD was 6:1
- VIX drops 9%
- option writing support 10000
- IMPORTANT - new highs possible if Nifty can sustain above 10600 this year, otherwise new lows possible. Reason: Big H&S on weekly charts.
- the pace of the rally and volumes from here should give hints... will take lot of time though so do not ask questions.

H&S pattern on NIFTY hourly charts

- neckline around 10300 (not perfect)
- right shoulder is being formed
- height of H&S is approx 300 points
- expect a move of 300 points whenever breakout happens

Bear trap of historic proportions???

There is a chance (perhaps 50/50) that a bear trap of historic proportions has been sprung.

April 4, 2018

#RELIANCE rangebound for more than 5 months

CNXIT - Hardly any correction here

BANK NIFTY update

- trend is down on daily charts
- index has lost 10% from its recent highs
- correction so far qualifies as a healthy correction
- very good support around 23600

- swing highs are as shown