May 31, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts (or up?)
- today NF closed 1.1% in positive at 10736
- AD was negative at 3:5
- note huge trading range from 10400 to 11000
- note daily charts will not give clarity about trend because of this big range

- I suspect we may see rangebound market for some time
- we may have a triangle forming... 1st leg done, 2nd forming... 3 more to form.

Big capital is not required to make excellent profits




Spot them young




Celebration time after 1 paisa cut in fuel prices

The Huge and Mysterious Planet Nine

This isn’t Pluto we’re talking about. Planet Nine is a planet predicted to be about 10 times the mass of our Earth orbiting somewhere in the distant solar system. It was predicted back in 2014 and we have been finding more and more confirmations of it in our solar system ever since.

The main evidence for Planet Nine’s existence lies in the strange patterns observed in Kuiper Belt objects out beyond Neptune. A cluster of these objects have been observed with identically shaped orbits that all travel in the same direction rather than having the random orbits we expect them to. The orbits are also tilted away from our own under what seems like the influence of a larger source of gravity. While there is a 1 in 14,000th chance that this could be a coincidence, scientists agree that with the increasing amount of evidence, it is extremely unlikely that this is all random. The most compelling solution, by far, is the existence of this ever elusive Planet Nine. The Kuiper Belt itself can’t be the cause of these anomalies since it would have to be 100 times larger to have that effect on this cluster of objects.

The proposition is that Planet Nine and the KB objects are in a resonance with one another, similar to the orbital resonance that Pluto and Neptune share. This means that their orbits come into contact with one another and are in sync but the planets and objects themselves never touch.

Read more at https://medium.com/@Ella_alderson/the-huge-and-mysterious-planet-nine-918b961e4aba

May 30, 2018

Traders Carnival: Return On Investment For An Options Writer Is Infinite, Says PR Sundar

There is immense wealth creation opportunities by writing options, according to PR Sundar, an options trader and a trainer.

“For an options writer, the return on investment is infinity because we never in bring any capital,” Sundar said during a session at the Traders Carnival event in Mumbai. “My capital in options writing is zero because all my money is lying in the bank and my bank is working for me and giving interest.”

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/traders-carnival/2018/05/29/traders-carnival-return-on-investment-for-an-options-writer-is-infinite-says-pr-sundar

Winning rate is not important at all




How Mumbai-headquartered Aditya Birla Money had lost Rs. 103 crore on its Options Maxima strategy.




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.2% in negative at 10614
- AD was 7:10
- option writing support 10500

Fuel prices cut by a huge 1 paisa per litre.... now everyone is happy.


It is all right to make mistakes




May 29, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.5% in negative at 10633
- AD was 4:5 (not bad)
- option writing support 10500

Excellent site for beginners and experts on trading/ investing

Strongly recommend this site for all beginners and experts... exhaustive and nice written modules by Zerodha.

No need to have an account to access site.

https://zerodha.com/varsity/

GST: Assume what has happened did not happen and vice versa

May 28, 2018

Option writing from the professionals

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.8% in positive at 10689
- AD was 2:1
- option writing support 10500 (10200 JUN)

Hypothetical question...

Suppose the price of onions crashes from Rs.100/- per kg to Rs.20/- per kg.

But in your city, someone influential hijacks the entire distribution system and sells the onions at Rs.80/- per kg thus making a profit of Rs.60/- per kg.

He says this is for your benefit without providing any explanation.

How would you feel? What will you do?

Nice video on moving averages from Trader's Carnival 2018, Mumbai @nsfidai




Is first hand knowledge critical?




An thread on option writing... what works and what does not


Read more at https://twitter.com/VohiCapital/status/1000690613916876801

May 27, 2018

May 26, 2018

NIFTY weekly charts

- I have a neutral view on the market
- the recent "bearish engulfing bar" did not lead to any significant correction
- whatever fall we had in this week was fully reversed by Friday
- a hammer pattern was formed
- this normally implies bullishness IF it occurs after a strong trend (not the case this time).

BANKNIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- support/ swing 25600
- note resistance near 27000



Master of illusion: Kokichi Sugihara's 'impossible' objects

Image result for Kokichi Sugihara
Kokichi Sugihara, a mathematician, specializes in the impossible. He creates mind-bending physical objects that look and behave in incredible ways when seen from the right angle, such as marbles that roll uphill or circular pipes that look rectangular in a mirror.

Unlike traditional optical illusions, which short-circuit our brain's visual processing system, Sugihara's objects involve no visual trickery other than perspective.

"Historically, optical illusion has been a research topic in psychology. I introduced a mathematical approach to this topic, and thus can create new types of 3D optical illusions," he explained in an email interview.

Read more at https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/kokichi-sugihara-optical-illusions/index.html

Excellent weekend read: The Intellectual Yet Idiot by Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese–American scholar, statistician, former trader, and risk analyst. He is known for his books - the Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile and the recent one Skin in the Game... all best sellers.

I owe a significant part of my trading success to his book "Fooled by Randomness".  This has helped me realise that no matter how much study or analysis you do, you have no control over the outcome of a trade and the outcome of any trade is at best random. Risk management is all that matters. This also means there is no correlation between intelligence and trading success.

The Intellectual Yet Idiot



What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.
But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligentsia” can’t find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they aren’t intelligent enough to define intelligence hence fall into circularities — but their main skill is capacity to pass exams written by people like them. With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30 years of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3 of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers (or Montaigne and such filtered classical knowledge) with a better track record than these policymaking goons.

Whom to believe? And why? All nonsense.





All waste of time... just like I wasted your time!

Unless something has changed drastically between 1.33pm and 6.37am.

May 25, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.9% in positive at 10605
- note markets are roughly at prev swing low (10608)
- let us see if this level provides resistance next week
- AD was 2:1
- today was first formation of higher high higher low
- another 1-2 would be considered normal
- option writing support 10500

IOC raises fuel prices for the 12th consecutive day




Trader's carnival: top traders on their bets




May 24, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.8% positive at 10514
- AD was flat
- option writing support 10500

Spend time with people who are better than you

 - Dilbert by Scott Adams

No one believes the media anymore




Those who have knowledge don't predict




Edge + Discipline = ALPHA.

EDGE + DISCIPLINE = ALPHA.
Edge alone and discipline alone will not do it for you. You need both.

Edge can be developed either by yourself or outsource it to someone who has demonstrated it. Depends on how much time you have at your disposal.
Discipline is a deeper subject. It depends on how in sync your sub conscious is with your conscious mind.
Read more at https://mysticwealth.in/index.php/edge-discipline-alpha

Krugman Joins Chorus of Doomsayers on Emerging-Market `Crisis’

 Paul Krugman is joining a growing contingent of economists and money managers from Carmen Reinhart to Mark Mobius in warning of a meltdown in emerging markets.

The Nobel Prize-winning economist said the current episode bears some resemblance to the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, when developing-nation stocks slid 59 percent and governments raised interest rates to exceptionally high levels.

"It’s become at least possible to envision a classic 1997-8 style self-reinforcing crisis: emerging market currency falls, causing corporate debt to blow up, causing stress on the economy, causing further fall in the currency," Krugman wrote on Twitter.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/05/23/krugman-joins-chorus-of-doomsayers-on-emerging-market-crisis#gs._ieSlZo

Goldman Sachs made a staggering $200 million in one day as markets plunged

Goldman Sachs made $200 million in profit on a single day this February as calm in stock markets was shattered with a historic surge in volatility, according to people with knowledge of the move. That's on par with what the firm's derivatives unit typically makes in an entire year, said the people.

The investment bank had positioned itself to benefit if the Cboe Volatility Index, the product sometimes called the "fear index" because it reflects expectations of future volatility, climbed, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about internal matters. After months of tranquil markets, on Feb. 5 the VIX surged 116 percent, the biggest one-day move on record, as the S&P 500 plunged 4.1 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 1,100 points

Read more at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/23/goldman-made-a-staggering-200-million-in-one-day-as-markets-plunged.html

May 23, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in negative at 10430
- AD was 7:10 (not bad)
- option writing resistance 10800

Brokers oppose SEBI's derivatives trading hours extension; all eyes on Friday meet now

..The brokers are unhappy with the move and seek trading in indices trade till midnight instead. “We have given a detailed presentation on derivatives to the Sebi. It primarily focuses on not extending the trading timing of single future till midnight. SEBI has agreed to meet our representation on Friday,” Rajesh Baheti, President, Association of National Exchanges Members of India told Moneycontrol.

“Nowhere in the world single-stock derivatives trade without cash market availability. Actually, we are required to trade on the basis of world market volatility which requires indices to remain open for longer trading hours,” Baheti said.

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/brokers-oppose-sebis-derivatives-trading-hours-extension-2573607.html

May 22, 2018

NIFTY options open interest distribution

- resistance 10800
- support 10500.. may break?



Source: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/option-chain#gs.H4YyhtQ

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10537
- AD was marginally positive
- option writing resistance 10800

Fuel prices at all time high - still waiting for Achhe Din?








We are all made from stars

Interesting table showing how elements formed in our solar system.



Read more at https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/1727-how-elements-are-formed

Open interest analysis

So, price action increasing in an uptrend and open interest on the rise is interpreted as new money coming into the market (reflecting new buyers); this is considered bullish. Now, if the price action is rising and the open interest is on the decline, short sellers covering their positions are causing the rally. Money is therefore leaving the marketplace; this is a bearish sign.

If prices are in a downtrend and open interest is on the rise, chartists know that new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will prove out a continuation of a downtrend and a bearish condition. Lastly, if the total open interest is falling off and prices are declining, the price decline is likely being caused by disgruntled long position holders being forced to liquidate their positions. Technicians view this scenario as a strong position technically because the downtrend will end once all the sellers have sold their positions.

112002_1.gif

Read more at https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/112002.asp

This can also be explained as:

PriceOIPosition
UPUPLong
DownUPShort
UPDownShort Covering
DownDownLong Unwinding


Shankar Sharma: Investing in India is like joining the madia

You can only enter, you can never exit. When things are good you get exit but when things are bad, the stock will be ‘limit-down’ for a few days.


'The market is one of illusionary liquidity. You have to factor that in your return expectation.'

With Karnataka election results out of the way and as several key states, including Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, prepare for assembly polls later this year ahead of the 2019 general election, Shankar Sharma, vice-chairman and joint managing director, First Global, advises investors to ignore all the noise around the elections.

In an uncharacteristically bullish tone, he tells Sachin Mampatta and Samie Modak why investors should buy if the market falls, why a coalition government is not the end of the world and how investing in India can be like joining the mafia. Edited excerpts:

Read more at http://www.rediff.com/business/interview/investing-in-india-is-like-joining-the-mafia/20180521.htm

May 21, 2018

Forget free stuff? Real life operational costs of a professional trader

I often get requests for sources on free data , free software and stuff . This from traders who are trading futures and options . Let me provide a breakup of what services I use .
I use end of day data from a vendor costing me 3000 per year . Real-time data costing around 30k per year . Options analysis software around 25k per year .
Comes to around Rs.5000 per month . Internet cost is around Rs.2000 per month with one major and one backup .
I use two laptops but those are fixed one time costs . Each laptop gets changed after 2-3 years .
So total infrastructure cost of my doing business is Rs.7000 per month .
Unless you can afford this bare minimum , you should not be in the business of trading FNO . Looking for free sources is time pass , not serious business .

My notes: I agree 100%... my expenses are approx. 4K pm on datafeed, backup internet, backup laptop etc. And the sorry/ sad part is traders who are looking for free stuff have already lost bigtime in the markets.

20 day swing signals

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %Fixed SLTrailing SLHighLow5 D14 D
||||| ABAN OFFSHORE156.55-3.00%SELL14/05/18160.902.70176.70183.001861583038
||||| ABCAPITAL143.85-2.00%SELL11/05/18151.404.99166.00166.001641481830
||||| ACE163.80-5.50%SELL21/05/18163.800.00189.80204.002041681033
||||| AMBUJA CEMENTS208.05-1.00%SELL08/05/18229.459.33236.25252.002532322227
||||| APOLLO HOSPITAL983.50-3.00%SELL09/05/181045.505.931088.001148.00114810522034
||||| ASHOKA243.85-7.00%SELL21/05/18243.850.00284.95294.00295248828
||||| AVANTIFEED1953.00-4.00%SELL16/11/172432.6519.722478.002525.0025252146826
||||| BAJAJ AUTO2720.55-2.00%SELL21/05/182720.550.002929.803043.00297827461131
||||| BALKRISHNA IND1117.60-4.50%SELL10/05/181203.057.101255.101305.00135210571632
||||| BANDHANBNK468.80-2.00%SELL14/05/18479.952.32497.00522.005414691533
||||| BATA INDIA744.05-1.00%SELL21/05/18744.050.00802.70816.008177311839
||||| BEML951.80-7.00%SELL25/09/171673.9543.141198.401198.00117210182235
||||| BF UTILITY376.85-4.00%SELL30/01/18481.5521.74445.00445.004423852438
||||| BHARATFORG694.25-3.50%SELL21/05/18694.250.00751.50784.007826991130
||||| BOMBAY DYEING257.65-4.50%SELL21/05/18257.650.00321.90321.003172411939
||||| CAPACITE297.85-10.00%SELL21/05/18297.850.00364.95373.00374304827
||||| CASTROLIND166.60-3.50%SELL25/04/18196.1015.04184.00203.002141921122
||||| CENTURY TEXTILES1006.95-5.50%SELL02/05/181143.9011.971128.801274.00126511441729
||||| CHENNPETRO281.90-2.50%SELL25/01/18419.6532.82312.20336.003593151727
||||| DAAWAT83.45-2.00%SELL11/05/1887.404.5292.4594.8099862233
||||| DBL1085.20-5.50%SELL21/05/181085.200.001247.501247.00121810142340
||||| DBREALTY47.70-6.00%SELL15/05/1851.106.6564.7072.5072471833
||||| DMART1345.45-5.00%SELL21/05/181345.450.001518.801534.00153513261833
||||| DR REDDY1893.05-4.00%SELL10/05/181989.604.852094.052180.00218020541124
||||| EIHOTEL161.85-3.00%SELL21/05/18161.850.00190.45196.002131601535
||||| EROSMEDIA128.70-2.00%SELL02/02/18190.8532.56168.90177.001871641322
||||| FCONSUMER54.80-4.50%SELL24/01/1865.8516.7861.9563.0063542840
||||| FEDERAL BANK80.90-1.50%SELL10/05/1889.409.51105.00105.00102891025
||||| GATI99.15-3.50%SELL21/05/1899.150.00116.80136.60137891738
||||| GIC HSG FIN376.40-2.00%SELL16/05/18387.902.96427.25436.004353751033
||||| GMBREW855.35-16.50%SELL21/05/18855.350.001105.901135.0011779891228
||||| GOACARBON693.05-3.00%SELL25/04/18825.5016.04776.70902.0010797962732
||||| GODREJAGRO602.35-2.50%SELL09/05/18679.9511.41710.35738.00738638524
||||| GODREJ PROP747.55-3.50%SELL21/05/18747.550.00920.00920.008287051537
||||| GRANULES89.00-6.00%SELL03/05/18104.9015.16106.70113.551141033033
||||| GRASIM1035.85-2.50%SELL21/05/181035.850.001108.851114.00111510451132
||||| HATHWAY26.90-5.50%SELL25/04/1832.5017.2334.6039.4043321127
||||| HCL INSYS44.10-2.50%SELL02/05/1850.7513.1052.6057.2557512632
||||| HDFC LTD1819.20-1.50%SELL21/05/181819.200.001941.901941.00189817921537
||||| HERO MOTOR3492.90-1.50%SELL11/05/183618.303.473685.003776.00382535121330
||||| HINDUSTAN COPPER67.95-1.50%SELL21/05/1867.950.0076.8078.5082632841
||||| HINDUSTAN ZINC289.55-2.50%SELL04/05/18303.504.60305.60334.003363011631
||||| IDFC49.80-3.00%SELL21/05/1849.800.0057.1060.5060491334
||||| IDFCBANK40.25-1.50%SELL02/02/1852.7023.6246.4049.2551471922
||||| IFCI17.30-1.50%SELL02/02/1825.3531.7620.0520.6522191423
||||| IPCA LAB667.00-4.00%SELL21/05/18667.000.00737.75760.007606561136
||||| JAI CORPORATION130.30-2.00%SELL10/05/18143.259.04153.30166.001711352533
||||| JAIN IRRIGATION98.95-2.50%SELL10/05/18106.407.00114.15118.101181061227
||||| JKPAPER128.00-6.50%SELL16/05/18138.457.55153.60153.001521351029
||||| JK TYRE140.40-5.00%SELL10/05/18145.253.34155.70161.001711482834
||||| JPASSOCIAT14.20-18.50%SELL14/05/1817.1517.2020.3520.9522191627
||||| JSW STEEL309.25-3.00%SELL21/05/18309.250.00342.75342.003312882342
||||| KARUR VYSYA BANK97.15-2.00%SELL18/01/18114.9015.45107.25110.001101001434
||||| KEC365.85-4.00%SELL15/05/18380.753.91421.00438.004433861932
||||| KSCL486.25-1.00%SELL10/05/18493.051.38518.00548.005554852237
||||| MAJESCO504.50-3.00%SELL21/05/18504.500.00555.00581.005824712641
||||| MEGHMANI ORGANICS LTD.97.10-2.50%SELL21/05/1897.100.00114.35114.35107842742
||||| MGL841.80-2.00%SELL10/11/171126.1025.25887.35918.0010298861627
||||| MINDACORP172.50-2.00%SELL21/05/18172.500.00190.85207.002081752639
||||| MRF73102.10-1.00%SELL10/05/1874881.452.3876599.0081425.0081426725421536
||||| NATCO PHARMA763.20-2.50%SELL31/01/18946.9019.40818.00830.008307501634
||||| NCC97.80-6.50%SELL10/05/18123.0520.52134.95136.701361171124
||||| NIIT LTD94.95-5.50%SELL21/05/1894.950.00110.80124.801251002035
||||| NMDC113.40-1.00%SELL31/01/18140.3019.17122.30126.001261161431
||||| NOCIL193.00-2.00%SELL10/05/18205.456.06222.95226.002321941131
||||| NTPC164.40-1.00%SELL21/05/18164.400.00173.95176.001801662237
||||| PHOENIX LTD712.702.00%BUY19/04/18626.7013.72598.10591.006535669275
||||| PRAJ INDUSTRIES92.35-4.00%SELL21/05/1892.350.00105.00105.00100813546
||||| RAIN222.60-7.50%SELL01/02/18363.1038.69344.35354.004053142126
||||| RAYMOND1007.65-3.50%SELL21/05/181007.650.001142.001153.0011529021437
||||| RBLBANK498.20-2.00%SELL21/05/18498.200.00523.95545.005454751439
||||| RCF67.50-4.50%SELL10/05/1874.509.4078.1084.908573625
||||| RIIL403.20-2.50%SELL30/01/18527.5523.57453.40470.004814351428
||||| SANWARIA14.30-4.50%SELL07/05/1817.4518.0517.9520.4524181527
||||| SBILIFE655.20-1.50%SELL15/05/18678.903.49719.00774.007756741431
||||| SDBL260.60-4.50%SELL21/05/18260.600.00322.80322.002922272643
||||| SHAKTIPUMP553.00-10.50%SELL16/05/18630.6012.31726.85763.00790548528
||||| SOBHA511.40-3.50%SELL17/01/18567.909.95548.90562.005684911334
||||| SPARC353.75-5.50%SELL14/05/18390.309.36419.60437.004383751529
||||| SREINFRA71.65-4.00%SELL10/05/1878.258.4382.7594.9095742333
||||| STRTECH306.60-3.00%SELL21/05/18306.600.00341.95365.003653152738
||||| SUN PHARMA443.75-4.50%SELL10/05/18497.2010.75519.25539.005314961728
||||| SURYAROSNI372.65-6.00%SELL23/03/18372.00-0.17429.80444.00445385829
||||| TATA MOTORS DVR175.35-3.00%SELL15/05/18180.953.09202.25202.002081842234
||||| TATA POWER78.80-2.50%SELL10/05/1882.003.9086.2089.558979926
||||| TATA SPONGE1041.90-2.50%SELL21/05/181041.900.001137.001143.0012499291440
||||| TINPLATE191.60-2.00%SELL10/05/18214.2510.57226.45259.002601881428
||||| TORRENT POWER218.60-2.50%SELL02/02/18261.4516.39244.90250.002532272233
||||| UJJIVAN380.40-3.50%SELL21/05/18380.400.00434.75434.004133432742
||||| UNITED PHOSPHORUS682.55-3.50%SELL30/04/18729.856.48740.00774.007757251934
||||| VIP INDUSTRIES369.95-5.00%SELL21/05/18369.950.00428.00428.004413131639
||||| VISAKAIND673.65-5.50%SELL21/05/18673.650.00777.00812.008046502237
||||| WELCORP129.10-2.00%SELL19/03/18148.6013.12150.85150.001571311936
||||| ZEE ENTERTAINMENT554.10-2.00%SELL06/02/18571.753.09604.90609.006025691534