February 28, 2018

NIFTY monthly charts

- complete bar reversal of prev month's rally
- this usually leads to a trend reversal.. let's see

BANK NIFTY monthly charts

- complete bar reversal of prev month's rally
- this usually leads to a trend reversal.. let's see

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- NF closed 0.6% in negative at 10493
- AD was negative
- a doji was formed
- but since market is rangebound, doji does not mean much
- swing low support 10200

NIFTY 15 min and hourly charts with kplswing indicator

15 min charts

Hourly charts

India’s deteriorating fiscal condition

The Union government’s worsening fiscal trajectory with no meaningful measures to stop the deterioration, coupled with worsening state fiscal deficits, has raised India’s economic vulnerability sharply. What may act as a trigger for a loss of confidence in India’s economy—and when—is unknown, but the worsening trend is clear. Political parties should take note and come together with meaningful reforms to counter the worsening trend, else instead of political representatives, economic policy may end up being driven by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/FSWfPRxQwQGFD36uaHnxGP/Indias-deteriorating-fiscal-condition.html

February 27, 2018

Something I would like to do everyday

Shame... Indian media and journos hits a new low in attempt to grab eyeballs

I never had any respect for the TV channels (Indian or phoren) and even lesser for the people on and behind the scenes.

But Sridevi's demise has the Indian media competing with each other and lowering the already low standards of journalism to even lower depths... thanks for their craze for TRPs or grab eyeballs.

Sample this...

>>> the award for the most ghoulish should go to Telugu channel Mahaa News which had their crime bureau chief conduct a bathtub investigation on air. Standing in a bathroom, the journalist is positioned next to a pink bathtub and asks, "Did Sridevi slip and fall into the bathtub or is there some other angle to this?"

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- NF closed 0.27% in negative at 10554
- AD was 1:2
- resistance around 10630 spot
- support 10275

February 26, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.9% in positive at 10583
- AD was 3:2
- VIX down 4%

- option writing support 10000
- swing high resistance at 10660

Understanding risks, accidents and outcomes

Welcome to the world of understanding “risks” and evaluating outcomes.

When we say a higher speed is risky, what we really mean is that if there is some unexpected external event not under your control (say a broken road, an unexpected swerve from the car in front of you, a dog suddenly crossing in front of our bike, a drunkard crossing the road etc) your ability to maneuver the bike is a lot lower at higher speeds and hence the possibility of an accident and the expected impact from it is also very high.

But the real cause for the accident is actually the unexpected event and not the speed. So while the unexpected occurrence might not happen everyday, if you keep over speeding everyday, then your chances of an accident are very high in the long run.

Even at lower speeds, this unexpected event might lead to an accident. However at lower speeds your ability to maneuver is much better and hence the chance of minimizing the impact of the accident is also very high.

In reality the only way you can predict an accident is to exactly foresee the unexpected event. Now the irony is that it is called an unexpected event precisely for the reason that it is unexpected!

So all we do while driving is to focus on what is under our control – the speed at which we drive our vehicles. We try to manage risk by increasing and decreasing the speeds based on the road conditions.

This is precisely what we should try and do in investing too – control investment risks

Controlling investment risks

Read more at https://eightytwentyinvestor.com/2018/02/25/and-the-award-for-the-worlds-best-risk-manager-goes-to

Ancient tools found in India undermine the “out of Africa” hypothesis

Scientists have unveiled an extraordinary new analysis of thousands of stone tools found at a site called Attirampakkam in India, northwest of Chennai in Tamil Nadu. Thanks to new dating techniques, a team led by archaeologist Shanti Pappu determined that most of the tools are between 385,000 and 172,000 years old. What makes these dates noteworthy is that they upend the idea that tool-making was transformed in India after an influx of modern Homo sapiens came from Africa starting about 130,000 years ago.

According to these findings, hominins in India were making tools that looked an awful lot like what people were making in Africa almost 250,000 years before they encountered modern humans. This is yet another piece of evidence that the "out of Africa" process was a lot messier and more complex than previously thought.

Pappu worked out of the Sharma Centre for Heritage Education in Chennai with a team of geoscientists and physicists to date the tools. They used a technique called "post-infrared infrared-stimulated luminescence," which measures how long ago minerals were exposed to light or heat. In essence, it allows scientists to determine how long ago a tool was buried and hidden from the Sun's heat, and it uses that information as a proxy for the tool's age.

Read more at https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/01/new-discoveries-raise-critical-questions-for-out-of-africa-hypothesis/

And the award for the world’s best risk manager goes to..

NOTE: the markets crashed 51% in 2008

Prashant Jain – HDFC Mutual Fund (26-Nov-2017)

Do you see a market crash in the near future?

In my opinion, a “crash” is probably too strong a word for the Indian market. But a correction can never be ruled out. It is true that the Indian market is somewhat expensive, but it offers a unique combination of size and growth. Global investors are increasingly looking at India as a mainline asset class and are therefore, investing with a long term view. If you look at Indian P/E’s of nearly 20, 15-20 per cent earnings growth, interest rates of 4-6 per cent prevailing outside India and an appreciating currency, then Indian P/E’s still look reasonable. India is somewhat expensive compared to the past and to the prevailing interest rates locally. But when viewed in the global context and in view of improved size, fundamentals and visibility of the Indian economy, the market does not appear to be unreasonably valued.

Mahesh Patil – BSL MF (28-Nov-2007)

Do you see a market crash in the near future?

I don’t see a major market crash in the near future. The long term trend is still up. However, after the smart rally we have seen in the last few weeks, one can expect a short correction of about 5-7 per cent in the near future.

A Balasubramaniam – Birla Sun Life AMC (24-Dec-2007)

Do you see a market crash in the near future?

During the recent run up of the market, post the US Fed cutting the Fed rate, we have seen the CNX MidCap under perform the larger indices. This has resulted in an increase in the valuations gap between large- and mid-caps. We analysed the results of all manufacturing companies in the BSE 500. We saw sales rise by 24 per cent while PAT grew by 70 per cent on year-on-year basis. Given the lower the inflation and a softer interest rate regime, we expect the coming quarters to go quite robust. This would widen the valuations gap between large- and mid-caps further. Hence we believe mid-caps would be very attractively valued.

Read more at https://eightytwentyinvestor.com/2018/02/25/and-the-award-for-the-worlds-best-risk-manager-goes-to

10 Gems from Buffett’s 2018 Annual letter

In our search for new stand-alone businesses, the key qualities we seek are durable competitive strengths;able and high-grade management; good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business;opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns; and, finally, a sensible purchase price

Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But Charlie and I sleep well. Both of us believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need.

The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.

Betting on people can sometimes be more certain than betting on physical assets.

Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their “chart” patterns, the “target” prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits.

There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren’t immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions.

Performance comes, performance goes. Fees never falter.

Though markets are generally rational, they occasionally do crazy things. Seizing the opportunities then offered does not require great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon such as alpha and beta.

What investors then need instead is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period – or even to look foolish – is also essential.

Stick with big, “easy” decisions and eschew activity

Source: https://stockandladder.com/10-gems-from-buffetts-2018-annual-letter

February 25, 2018

Swing trading signals :: 23-FEB-2018

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalStoplossReversal
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| BRITANNIA4961.902.00%5.00%BUY4526.054400.0047864601
||||| CHOLAFIN1415.602.50%8.00%BUY1282.051205.0013611271
||||| DMART1300.254.50%13.50%BUY1130.001060.1012841126
||||| HDFCLIFE468.854.00%2.50%BUY426.60395.30494384
||||| HINDZINC328.004.00%11.50%BUY280.50275.05329290
||||| MINDTREE811.909.50%7.50%BUY680.55662.00784593
||||| PERSISTENT821.805.00%4.00%BUY741.00730.00818694
||||| SUNDRMFAST573.656.00%2.50%BUY509.00480.00594522
||||| SUNFLAG94.008.50%5.50%BUY71.2563.609179
||||| VENKEYS3198.708.50%13.00%BUY2641.002470.7029452420

February 24, 2018

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- this week, NF closed flat and within range of last 2 candlesticks
- formation is dragon fly doji showing buying at lower levels
- support 10000 resistance 10600

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week, BNF closed flat
- candlestick formation is dragon fly
- this is evidence of buying happening at lower levels
- support 23800

February 23, 2018

NIFTY spot 15 min and hourly charts

Breakouts/ buy signals on both 15 min and hourly timeframe.

15 min charts

Open Interest distribution hints at rangebound market this month

I will be bullish only a decisive breakout above 10600

Source: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/option-chain

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in positive at 10491
- AD was 3:1
- VIX down 5%
- this week's closing is at the high for this week
- option writing support 10000
- immediate resistance 10600

Currency circulation in India at 99% of pre-demonetisation level: RBI data

Different eras.Different Geographies.Same Human Nature.

John Kenneth Galbraith in his book 'The Great Crash of 1929' :

“In many ways the effect of the crash on embezzlement was more significant than on suicide. To the economist embezzlement is the most interesting of crimes. Alone among the various forms of larceny it has a time parameter.

Weeks, months or years may elapse between the commission of the crime and its discovery. (This is a period, incidentally, when the embezzler has his gain and the man who has been embezzled, oddly enough, feels no loss. There is a net increase in psychic wealth.)

At any given time there exists an inventory of undiscovered embezzlement in – or more precisely not in – the country’s business and banks.

This inventory – it should perhaps be called the bezzle – amounts at any moment to many millions of dollars. It also varies in size with the business cycle.

In good times people are relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. But even though money is plentiful, there are always many people who need more.

Under these circumstances the rate of embezzlement grows, the rate of discovery falls off, and the bezzle increases rapidly.

In depression all this is reversed. Money is watched with a narrow, suspicious eye. The man who handles it is assumed to be dishonest until he proves himself otherwise. Audits are penetrating and meticulous. Commercial morality is enormously improved. The bezzle shrinks."

Different eras.Different Geographies.Same Human Nature.

Nothing Changes.

Moscow Begins Crypto-Elections Testing: Thumbs Nose At U.S.

... the city of Moscow is unveiling an Ethereum-based version of its voting system called Active Citizen.  By putting the votes on the blockchain, as long as the code is solid, then the results cannot be disputed.

This is one of the major promises of the trustless systems the crypto-community has been clamoring about for nearly a decade now.  From the moment I heard about Ethereum and smart contracts, the first application that popped into my head was voting.

Votes need to be on the blockchain.

Nothing in our current society is more important than removing the spectre of corruption from our elections.  While I personally think voting is a complete waste of time (Don’t Vote! It only encourages them, is my motto) the reality is a tremendous amount of power is commanded through the siren’s call of the democratic mandate voting confers on a society.

So, it only makes to create a voting system incapable of being hacked.

Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-22/moscow-begins-crypto-elections-testing-thumbs-nose-us

Risk management ignored... years of gain gone in one month

February 22, 2018

NIFTY hourly charts

- trend is down on hourly charts
- strong resistance at 10630 F
- support 10290 F

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, Nifty closed flat at 10383
- AD was 1:2
-VIX down 7%
- option writing support 10000 (MAR series)

When A Stock is Added or Removed From the Nifty 50, What Happens Next?

When a stock is added to the index, there are exchange traded funds that will buy in, so that they can track the index. Other market participants who benchmark themselves with the index (such as mutual funds) will also buy so they don’t miss out if that one stock breaks out.

There’s other reasons too, such as increased liquidity for such stocks, and the fact that they are now in the index because their market cap is moving up.

All market-cap weighted Indexes like the Nifty 50 are closet momentum portfolios. They try to keep up with the trend by adding winners (who have moved up in market cap) and eliminating losers. In other words, they follow the maxim: Let your winners ride and cut your losers short. It seems it’s best to just follow what they do.

Read more at https://capitalmind.in/2017/04/when-a-stock-is-added-or-removed-from-the-nifty-50-what-happens-next/

Capital Markets and the Path to Nirvana - excellent read

The sentiments many readers associate with the term “capital markets” are greed, fear,
loathing, envy, jealousy, chicanery etc. But these are actually a reflection of our
collective biases stemming from certain headline events that remain vividly etched in our
memory. However, if we step back and view the capital market as a metaphor for life
itself, our approach to it may be completely different.

Based on my own journey of the last two decades, I can vouch for the fact that the capital
market is the best place to test oneself and prepare for the very purpose of life – “selfrealization
and discovering the infinite within”.

Let me explain how:

We have all heard the adage that ‘Life is a Stage’. Indian scriptures speak of us being sent
into the world to be schooled by life and learn its lessons. Each one of us is born with
differing “fortunes” and circumstances – depending upon our progress on our spiritual
path in our previous “life classes”. Our past progress determines what path we start to
tread in our current lifetime. Our choices and responses in this lifetime determine whether
we advance further or fall prey to life’s temptations and regress in our ongoing quest.

Read more at http://www.flame.edu.in/pdfs/fil/reports/Capital-Markets-and-the-Path-to-Nirvana.pdf

Mistake new traders make

A mistake I see so many new and aspiring traders make is that they place way too much importance on the next trade or series of trades. A trade is nothing more or less than a datum point in a series of data points

Change in index constituents

Changes effective from 2nd April 2018

Read more at https://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/FAOP37023.pdf

Rise of the machines: Robodog fights a human to open a door

Charlie Munger on fee structure - what should analysts charge

February 21, 2018

Mark Mobius bullish on Indian economy and markets

Mark Mobius is bullish on Indian economy and thinks growth rate will surpass China sustainably if the reforms continue to kick in. He also finds Indian equity markets attractive after the recent correction and appreciated government’s move to impose long term capital gains tax.

He said that valuations are stretched globally and markets are at a high point but if the earnings keep up, stretched valuation could continue. He also said that bull market lasts longer than the bear market. He is bullish on the consumer space and underweight on telecom companies in India.

Read more at https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/mark-mobius-bullish-on-indian-economy-and-capital-markets/article22799709.ece

Calling all citizens to pay their taxes on time and fund the defaulters/ scamsters

Prove your loyalty to the nation... pay your taxes on time but don't expect anything in return. 

And link everything you have to Aadhaar.

You have to fill for the defaults by Nirav Modi, Vipul Kothari of Rotomac, Winsome Diamonds, Vijay Mallya of Kingfisher and many others.

Acche din are here now... if you don't believe then it means you are on the wrong side.

Swing trading signals :: 21-FEB-2018

Swing trading signals :: 21-FEB-2018

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| AIFL490.851.50%6.00%BUY441.00483441
||||| APOLLO281.35-2.00%-36.00%SELL419.70480327
||||| AUROPHARMA571.00-0.50%-10.50%SELL663.00699623
||||| BHARATFIN969.20-1.50%-3.50%SELL1097.501068988
||||| BODALCHEM139.50-2.00%-14.50%SELL165.50176158
||||| GLAXO2388.90-1.00%-3.00%SELL2501.0025342413
||||| HUBTOWN88.15-4.50%-31.50%SELL136.70167115
||||| IDBI70.305.50%15.00%BUY56.007058
||||| IMFA580.80-1.00%-15.50%SELL717.75777645
||||| INDUSINDBK1594.25-1.50%-5.00%SELL1817.8017611618
||||| JKTYRE152.85-3.00%-14.00%SELL193.00183144
||||| LAKSHVILAS114.65-3.00%-18.00%SELL140.30152127
||||| LT1282.80-0.50%-8.00%SELL1470.0014421243
||||| MAJESCO464.90-1.50%-16.50%SELL603.90604505
||||| MOTHERSUMI314.10-3.50%-18.00%SELL388.80390360
||||| NATIONALUM66.45-1.00%-13.50%SELL80.709074
||||| PFC104.60-1.00%-12.50%SELL122.50129115
||||| PFS30.35-2.50%-17.00%SELL36.903935
||||| SHK276.85-1.00%-10.50%SELL312.85314281
||||| SRTRANSFIN1261.85-2.00%-14.50%SELL1516.0015461351
||||| SUNPHARMA525.75-6.00%-8.50%SELL608.95605560
||||| SUPRAJIT265.15-1.50%-13.50%SELL315.00348292

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10397
- AD was negative at 2:3
- VIX down 6%

- option writing support at 10000 (March series)

Why should you stop paying taxes

Amount looted... Nirav Modi Rs.11,000 crores, Rotomac (V Kothari) Rs.3,000 crores, Winsome Diamonds Rs.6,000 crores. And many many more in the past.

All related (distantly) to big business families of India. So one can safely assume nothing will happen.

Wonder if these people had Aadhaar cards. Why ordinary people are being bombarded with messages to link everything with Aadhaar ... all in name of preventing black money.

But if I default on a car loan or housing loan, I and my family will be harassed non stop and the assets will be seized.

These rules don't apply to big people... otherwise these defaults or scams would not have happened.

So why should I pay taxes? My taxes are for the betterment of society... not to benefit the defaulters or help the govt recapitalise loss making banks. Every such scam means my money is lost forever.

NOTE: this post is not a reflection of the political party in power. It is more a frustration of govt harassing ordinary citizens while ignoring or allowing the big fish to escape.

Very scary... it is all in the family

Now I am 100% sure nothing will happen to these people... see how well connected they are to the big fish... the only option is to hang the bankers responsible for this mess.

Source: https://thewire.in/225884/india-incs-recent-scams-turn-laws-outlaws/

February 20, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.2% in negative at 10360
- AD was negative
- option writing support 10000 (March series)

February 19, 2018

China launches crackdown against 7 mn bank defaulters, shows India how to deal with debtors

With examples of bank defaulters like Vijay Mallya, absconding from the country, still fresh in the minds of Indians, China has taken another strict step towards penalising the debtors and defaulters. In an unprecedented crackdown, China’s Supreme People’s Court has blacklisted 6.73 million bank defaulters and restricted them from travelling by plane, applying for loans & credit cards or getting promoted.

As reported by Global Times, till date, the Chinese government had barred 6.15 million people from buying plane tickets and 2.22 million from travelling by high-speed train. Supreme people’s Court enforcement bureau chief, Meng Xiang has confirmed that SPC has cooperated with airlines and railway companies to bar the defaulters with the help of their official IDs and passports. The implementation of the ban based on passports was initiated as earlier many defaulter with barred ID card numbers started buying plane tickets with their passports.

Read more at http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/china-launches-crackdown-against-7-mn-bank-defaulters-shows-india-how-to-deal-with-debtors/558021/

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in negative at 10378
- AD was 1:4
- some signs of buying seen as NF comes close to 6-FEB gapdown opening level

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10600
- this level is a good resistance area

Careful, MSCI, you may be raising a new Osama bin Laden

A scathing open letter, by Nilesh Shah of Kotak MF to MSCI on its threat to remove India from the MSCI index.

Please evaluate the following facts before taking any decision in the context of issuing a stern warning for weightage cut to India for nonsharing of data by exchanges with its competitors:

• India is the only country in the world where in the listed segment, the largest bank, the largest insurance company, the largest mortgage company, the largest FMCG company, the largest telecom company, the largest automobile company etc are majority-owned by foreigners. Do you think that is  ..

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/62978325.cms

Charlie Munger on Bitcoins, Banking, AI, and Life

On searching for ideas – The two rules of fishing are to fish where the fish are, and don’t forget the first rule. Investing is the same thing. In some places, no matter how good a fisherman you are, you won’t do well. Life is a long game. Take it as comes and do the best you can, and if you live to an old age, you will get your full share of opportunities, which will be two in total, maybe, but seize one of the two, and you will be alright.

On banking – Banking is a very peculiar business. The temptations to do something stupid are way greater for a bank CEO. Banks are a dangerous place to invest. There are a lot of ways to make the near-term future look good by taking risks that affect long term future. There are a few exceptions. Berkshire tries to pick a few exceptions as best we can when we look at banks. I haven’t anything more to say except that I am right.

On overvaluation of Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon – I don’t know. Next question.

On money management (Peter Kaufman) – I call them the five aces: (1) total integrity, (2)

Read more at https://www.safalniveshak.com/charlie-munger-bitcoins-banking-life

February 17, 2018

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- support 10000

- note 200 DMA on daily charts is around 10100

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- support 23800

February 16, 2018

Swing trading signals :: 16-FEB-2018

Swing trading signals :: 16-FEB-2018

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABAN173.70-2.00%-29.00%SELL254.95281200
||||| ALLCARGO175.70-2.50%-13.50%SELL207.50229191
||||| ALPHAGEO815.60-2.00%-12.00%SELL985.001054891
||||| BANKINDIA130.45-2.00%-20.50%SELL183.25183155
||||| BIRLACORPN967.55-2.00%-19.00%SELL1222.3012661073
||||| COLPAL1076.55-1.00%-5.50%SELL1174.0011741085
||||| DENABANK21.35-2.50%-16.50%SELL27.852825
||||| DLINKINDIA107.25-2.50%-22.00%SELL141.30154123
||||| GLENMARK521.00-1.50%-17.00%SELL647.00647583
||||| GOLDBEES2763.400.50%2.00%BUY2675.0527452631
||||| GVKPIL17.85-4.50%-26.00%SELL25.452818
||||| HGS872.10-3.00%-4.50%SELL1037.801015868
||||| KWALITY85.35-3.00%-17.50%SELL108.0011997
||||| MAHABANK18.45-1.50%-14.50%SELL22.702519
||||| MFSL500.75-3.00%-9.50%SELL559.95605515
||||| MOTHERSUMI326.75-4.00%-14.50%SELL388.80390360
||||| PRABHAT174.60-2.50%-21.00%SELL241.05254208
||||| SBIN271.65-2.50%-11.50%SELL332.75333293
||||| SYNDIBANK59.55-3.00%-25.50%SELL83.508472
||||| TEJASNET348.90-0.50%-17.50%SELL453.45472370
||||| UBL1010.40-2.50%-10.50%SELL1243.0011991021
||||| UNICHEMLAB336.65-2.50%-6.50%SELL380.50382323
||||| YESBANK311.80-2.50%-8.50%SELL367.25366307

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