October 16, 2019

Nice thread on bull and bear markets

This small/midcap bear market is our 2nd most brutal in history. In 1992 you knew the Harshad was caught. In 2000 NASDAQ was bleeding & Ketan had been trapped. This time it was the system cracking - a box full of fire crackers catching fire. You don’t know which one bursts when!

Post the fall in 1992, EOUs, FMCG and software took over the leadership. Anything to do with ‘EOU’ was bid up. Post 2000 the large pharma companies like Dr Reddy’s starting moving and so did a lot of PSU divestment candidates.

Though the Govt. sold only a handful of PSUs the rally spread across the sector far and wide SCI, BEL, BEML, EIL, CONCOR & more were the shining stars till 2003. Companies that were debt free available at single digit P/Es with a dividend yield of 7% to 10% went up 10 to 30x.

Read more at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1184261729036861440.html

October 15, 2019

Stocks gaining more than 5% today

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 15-OCT-2019 
BANDHANBNK
BANDHANBNK chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (from today)
- today nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11428
- AD was flat

- VIX down 4%
- increased put writing seen at 11300 strike

Abhijit Banerjee’s prescription for Indian economy: ‘Stop PMO interference, raise NREGA wages, pray’



October 14, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in positive at 11330
- AD was flat

- stiff resistance seen near 11400
- this level was earlier swing low which broke on 1st OCT

Method to measure economic development in different countries

October 11, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% positive at 11301
- AD was flat

What slowdown? Online food delivery may touch $12.53 billion by 2023

According to analysts, Swiggy and Zomato jointly delivered about 96 million orders in the year — April 2017 till March 2018. The report said Zomato and Swiggy have about 63% share in terms of app installs in food-tech sector.

Earlier this month, Zomato said said its revenues increased by about 225% to $205 million on year in the six months to September 2019. Food delivery that generates bulk of the revenue — about 75% (according to Zomato’s FY19 annual report) saw about 290% jump in order volumes in H1FY20 compared to the year-ago period.

“In addition to wider internet penetration, the growth in per capita income of India is also a driving force behind the growth in demand for online food delivery in India,” according to the report.

Read more at https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/online-food-delivery-may-touch-12-53-billion-by-2023/1732353

October 10, 2019

Google trends for "multibagger stocks"

- good indicator of market tops and bottoms
- supports my view that retail is bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms

 

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.7% in negative at 11234
- AD was 1:2

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- however volatility is extremely high
- BNF has moved from 26800 to 30500 in 2 days
- now trading around 28800 (after a 4% intraday move)

- current ATR is 820 points or 3%
- this calls for min SL of 1600 points or 6%
- note my average SL for any positional trade in a stock is 10%



with kplswing indicator

October 9, 2019

When Warren Buffet called customer care to invest USD 5 billion

Missed calls hurting Jio

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.7% in positive at 11313
- AD was 5:4

- VIX down 4%

- note size of intraday moves has increased substantially in past few months
- average swings of 100-200 points are becoming very common
- but nifty is still today where it was 6 months ago
- so on daily charts there is almost no trend
- a trend may last max for few days before another wild swing comes

- as a trader you will need to adopt to this "new normal"
- however, a directionless market in one timeframe can be a trending market in another
- so learn to capture the moves
- as of now, this is an excellent day traders market
- an EOD trader has missed nothing if he was on a Europe tour of 6 months

Why the RBI monetary policy has become useless

Lessons from the movie TITANIC

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How to count pips in forex

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What recession? What slowdown?

October 8, 2019

What would happen by the end of the decade

October 7, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 11126.4
- AD was 1:2

The party is about to begin

October 5, 2019

Impossible to give up crude oils

Anatomy of a new scam. Don't fall prey to this

Now my stops are getting hit

October 4, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts (from yesterday)
- I missed marking this yesterday but
- I am marking this today as rally is corrected by 50%
- now support zone is 11100 to 11200 spot where recovery can happen
- and 11000 is also a big round number

- AD was 7:11 - not bad

Helicopter money Bernanke style?



Source: http://alphaideas.in/2019/10/04/as-long-as-it-is-necessary/

October 3, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (down on hourly charts)
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 11314
- AD was 7:11

- VIX up 6%

- good support around 11100-11200 spot

The I know versus the I don't know investor

The butterfly effect: how a journalist's killing led to the bursting of the Silicon Valley bubble

October 2, 2019

Open positions... let's see how bad things can get this week


US markets break key support.. but close is important


Identifying Capitulation: How to Tell We've Hit Bottom

There are two important features that identify climax selling. The first is the rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall. Like a Stuka dive-bomber, the market first rolls over slowly and then plunges in a vertical dive. This is fear at work.

The second feature is a massive increase in volume. This is panic. Ordinary people are desperate to get out of the market. Generally the funds and institutions got out of the long-side of the market many months ago.

Read more at https://www.cnbc.com/id/27154015

BANKNIFTY hourly charts

- trend is down
- but index has taken support at a very good zone
- let us see if this holds

HDFCBANK: No slowdown in demand

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October 1, 2019

US S&P 500 chart

- gap being tested like our markets
- they did not have a NS candle


NIFTY hourly charts

- nifty broke crucial support around 11440 F
- trend has turned down
- next support 11100 F

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 1% in negative at 11360
- the index was down almost 2% at one time till recovery came in
- recent gap around 11300-11500 is filled

- AD was 4:15

- VIX up 6% to 16.7

- good support around 11200 levels

Listen to unpleasant truth, Subramanian Swamy tells PM Modi

"I am afraid the economists that the government has recruited seem so frightened to tell the truth to the prime minister, while the prime minister himself is focused only on the micro-projects," Swamy said

Swamy also blamed the demonetisation, especially the role of RBI and the finance ministry in not properly flagging the real issues, and the hasty introduction of GST for the present crisis in the economy.

BJP leader Subramanian Swamy on Monday advised prime minister Narendra Modi to develop a “temper” to listen to the unpleasant truth and stop “frightening” his government’s economists, if he wants to drive the economy out of the crisis. “The way Modi runs the government is that very few people can step out of the line. He should encourage people to tell to his face that no this can’t be done. But I think he has not yet developed that temper,” Swamy said.

The comments from the ruling party’s Upper House member come at a time when growth has slipped to a six-year low and the government is trying various unconventional measures, including massive tax giveaways, to prop-up growth. Swamy also blamed the demonetisation, especially the role of RBI and the finance ministry in not properly flagging the real issues or preparing well, and the hasty introduction of GST for the present crisis in the economy. He also said the government has not understood the policies required for higher growth.

Read more at https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/listen-to-unpleasant-truth-subramanian-swamy-tells-pm-modi/1722470/

Biggest beneficiaries of the cut in corporate tax rates

There is no substitute for high savings

What we want versus what we get