October 9, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.7% in positive at 11313
- AD was 5:4

- VIX down 4%

- note size of intraday moves has increased substantially in past few months
- average swings of 100-200 points are becoming very common
- but nifty is still today where it was 6 months ago
- so on daily charts there is almost no trend
- a trend may last max for few days before another wild swing comes

- as a trader you will need to adopt to this "new normal"
- however, a directionless market in one timeframe can be a trending market in another
- so learn to capture the moves
- as of now, this is an excellent day traders market
- an EOD trader has missed nothing if he was on a Europe tour of 6 months

3 min charts:
- today I did not trade short even though prev day low (11150 F) broke
- reason is first bar had gap down opening followed by buying
- and when the prev day low broke, there was not much follow thru selling
- this was effectively a bear trap
- traded long when markets crossed prev day low 11150 F from below
- stopped out on tight SL
- repeated long twice and exited within circled area (just before prev day high 11260 F)
- traded long again when it became clear that 11250 F was not going to break downside
- closed around 11320 F

- decision levels for tomorrow are 11120, 11200, 11300 and 11360 F

chart with kplswing

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