September 20, 2019

Market outlook + Nirmala Sitharaman candle formed

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- today markets closed 5.3% in positive at 11274
- AD was 13:5

- today was biggest green candle in past 4-5 years
- I call this the Nirmala Sitharaman candle (history was made)
- as it came on back of heavy reforms
- these reforms were actually like a budget except that
- it was more bolder than what was presented in the past
- wish this was done before

- the size of the candle and location means 10600 may hold this year
- resistance around 11600 levels

- today a lot of people lost money by taking wrong positions or
- not having any risk management
- sometimes you may miss a move... this is ok
- but do not ever get caught on the wrong side

Was there any hint of trend reversal?
- yes... number of stocks making new 52 week lows had dropped dramatically
- a lot of buy signals were coming in delivery trades which we took
- but in nifty unless some swing high is crossed, you cannot trade long
- it is then sheer bad luck that a market gains 5% in a day and then crosses swing high
- so the key takeaway is you cannot capture every single move
- yet to meet a person who has been able to do this consistently (trollers please note)

3 min charts:
- yesterday I wrote key levels were 10680 and 10840 F
- one should trade breakouts or reversals around these levels
- this is my strategy everyday

- today first 30-40 min was boring
- traded long and got stopped out
- and then the breakout happened

- the moves were too fast and large
- see scaling of chart...each grid is 100 points big!!!

- this is the final chart

- and these are my trades
- I missed the first bar but got in the trade around 10850 F
- biggest problem was the SL but I decided to trade OTM calls
- I bought and sold multiple times
- each trade was only 1 lot due to deep SL
- unfortunately the moves were too fast and large
- see scaling of chart...each grid is 100 points big!!! 

- as you can see the first trade was a loss
- last trade is positional

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