November 22, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in negative at 10527
- AD was 7:10
- this is 3rd day of lower high lower low

- swing low at 10400

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10700


5 min charts:
- break of day's low around 10605 was sell signal
- I ignored it as it was close to prev day low
- shorted on break of pre day's low
- kept a tight SL which got triggered

- mistake was ignoring the effect of prev support turning into resistance
- this was a big mistake as markets resumed downward move after taking my SL


Same chart with kplswing indicator
- here the first short trade would have given 10-15 points profit
- the second short trade would have been breakeven
- short trades are shown with green arrows


So in hindsight, the only safe trade would have been short when NF reversed from resistance at 10580 F

Or keep deep stoplosses.... this was becoming very difficult as many trades got whipsawed thanks to the rangebound market this month (net move last 20 days has been only 100 points).


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