January 30, 2017

Neowave analysis of markets

We wondered if the rally would be a new up-move OR just an x-wave. To decide on this, we considered 61.8% levels as crucial. We also wondered if it could be crossed before Budget.

Last week’s rally has taken out the 61.8% level, just ahead of the Budget coming out 1st Feb, i.e. on Wednesday of the fresh week. It, thus, also crossed the “Neckline”, achieved “Double Bottom” projection and gone above the “Turbulence” area of 9-11th Nov’16.

It, therefore, appears the rally from Dec’16 is indeed a new up-move and not an x-wave. The “x?” label is, accordingly, removed.

.....

If 21-month Neutral Triangle is over, then its last leg, i.e. “E” leg from Sep’16 to Dec’16, should be fully retraced in faster time. Thus, the final confirmation of a new up-move would require move above Sep’16 high, and that too, by Mar’17.

A move out of a Neutral Triangle (NT) can achieve 75% ratio to the largest leg of the NT. The largest leg was “D” leg from Mar’16 to Sep’16. A 75% ratio to “D” would project about 30500 (Nifty 9500), a new high as we have been arguing.


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