April 11, 2014

Weekend update

On daily charts, the trend is up with support at 6640. Note that despite a gap down opening, the low made in first 5 minutes never broke during the day. Advance decline was positive.


April 10, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 6640. Considering yesterday's rally, a sideways movement of 1-2 days is perfectly in order.

So unless markets break this level in 2 days, I will not consider any sort of trend reversal.

This is not a market for shorting so keep buying the dips. I am saying this because I am getting desperate calls from people who are shorting from 6200 levels and do not believe in stoploss. Now they are paying (very rightly) for their follies.

I have no target for this rally... 7200 is the nearest Fibonacci resistance level... after that who knows and who cares. Just follow the trend which is up right now and hold all positions with a trailing stoploss.



Intraday analysis

Long trade on crossover of day's high at 6848F failed.

Short trade was not considered as broader trend is strongly up.


April 9, 2014

Market outlook (NIFTY and B.NIFTY)

In a previous post, I mentioned that the "... expected correction has started or may even be ending!".

Two days of lower highs and lower lows is all we got and this is enough in a bull market.

Right enough, the correction ended faster than it ever started and trapped everyone who are desperately looking for an opportunity to short a rising market.

Advance decline was excellent.

Intraday analysis

A simple straight forward day.... crossover above day's high (6780F) gave an excellent and immensely profitable signal. Cover at market close.



April 7, 2014

Market outlook

Much expected correction has started or may even be ending!

Intraday analysis

Short trade on break of day's low (6745F)... cover around 6720F. There was no other trade possible.

Note absence of any weakness inspite of global clues and tomorrow being a holiday.


April 6, 2014

Example of risk management

RANBAXY... an interesting trade. This stock was not on my watchlist but someone at my brokerage shorted when it was up 10%. According to him, the 10% move was not warranted and so he shorted.

April 4, 2014

Weekly update

On daily charts, nifty formed lower high lower low... this is the first sign of the correction (yesterday's outside bar was a rough warning). The intraday charts however show a great deal of struggle to come down.

Intraday analysis

Weak and rangebound day. There was only one possible short trade when nifty crossed the day's high but failed to sustain above it. Expectedly, the rangebound nature of the market limited the gains.

Incidentally break of day's low (9.45 bar) is NOT a short trade (shown with arrow) as the bar closing was midway.


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April 3, 2014

B NIFTY view

Trend is up and there are signs of some profit booking happening.

Immediate support is at 12525 and then 12300.

Note that while nifty is trading at lifetime highs, bank nifty has yet to cross its lifetime high of 13400.


Market outlook

Some signs of profit booking setting in. We also had a formation of an outside bar.

Intraday analysis

Intraday trend was down though there was not much selling. There was only one sell signal which got stopped out on a trailing SL and generated no profits.


April 2, 2014

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 6600-6400. Formation of higher high and higher low is still intact.

Any correction would be a buy on dips opportunity. I know most people are already short or are looking for an opportunity to short. My advice - forget it unless you want to get slaughtered.


Intraday analysis

NIFTY traded rangebound but with a bullish bias. Similar pattern is being seen past few days.

We have initial weakness followed by break of day's low and then the bulls step in.

Buy above level for today is shown in green line.


April 1, 2014

US markets

S&P 500 trend is up with support at 1840... resistance is at 1880. Close above this will lead to another strong rally. Note that the yellow highlighted bar is the current bar.


Buying a stock after a big move

Can you buy a stock AFTER it has already moved 10% in a day? Or say it is at lifetime high? Or at 52 week high? If yes, you are on your way to be a good trader.

Market outlook

No signs of any correction while nifty is still maintaining formation of higher highs and higher lows intact.

While a correction is overdue, it may be a short affair with the broader sense veering towards buy on dips.

Intraday analysis

Past 2-3 days, markets are seeing selling followed by immediate buying. Today was no different.

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