April 13, 2015

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 10-APR-2015 
  • These charts are for educational purposes only.
  • This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
  • Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
  • Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO chart

April 10, 2015

NIFTY intraday futures chart

- first short trade at circle (test of resistance and failure)
- break of swing low was second short signal (second arrow)
- trailing stoploss hit around 8790-8800 levels
- the SL hit did not convert to a buy signal as breakout bar failed (open = close).
- note stiff resistance at 8820F... all breakouts are failing from this level.
- next week, expect more strength above 8820F.


NIFTY Fibonacci retracements

Levels of support and resistance...


Market outlook

- trend is up and will reverse on close below 8680 spot.
- this is still a corrective rally and may get terminated before 9000 levels.
- above 8800 spot, next resistance is 8950 spot
- for next week, pay attention to 8680 spot
- option writing support 8500 resistance 9000


April 9, 2015

Market outlook

- trend is up with increasing volatility
- hanging man formed today
- increased intraday volatility indicates caution/ tussle between bulls and bears
- advance decline flat even though markets closed in positive
- look at 8670 spot / 8710 fut as strong support




NIFTY futures intraday charts

- first trade was a short trade as markets break a support
- this trade gets stopped out at minor loss
- resulting long trade is profitable
- second short trade is badly stopped out
- no interest to take 2nd long trade because of nearness to day's high
- overall difficult trading day with large swings; day infact ended in the negative
- circled areas are zones of possible trade; these are drawn in hindsight but may have been obvious to a shrewd trader.


Same chart with kplswing indicator - 3 whipsaws will knock 3-5% of your trading capital in one day.




Confusion regarding indicators and charts

Question:

Sir, I am very confused. Pls guide me which indicators or charts should I refer to as I'm having trouble. 
I have brought dlf@ 167.5, I've brought it because it broke it's 200day moving average and your page showed buy signal. But it is down since the past two days. What are your thoughts on this stock. 


How do I accurately read a script in 30 secs. 


I'm very confused at this point. 


Sanjay Nagpal 


April 8, 2015

Market outlook

- small bar formed today
- higher high higher low still intact
- advance decline positive
- trend reversal level 8550 spot
- option writing support 8500 resistance 9000



NIFTY futures intraday charts

- ignore first sell signal as it comes at previous day's resistance
- buy signal tradable though does not give any profit
- markets remain rangebound  thereafter





April 7, 2015

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 07-APR-2015 
  • These charts are for educational purposes only.
  • This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
  • Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
  • Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
  • Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
  • All charts are provided by icharts.in
AEGISCHEM
AEGISCHEM chart

Market outlook

- trend still up even as markets close in negative
- lower tails past 2 days point to selling at higher levels
- advance decline mildly positive
- today's high low critical tomorrow
- will not be surprised if markets start reversing from here on



NIFTY futures intraday charts

- initial bias weak
- initial short trade and subsequent long trade was loss making
- increased SL to low of breakout bar for a long position and vice versa
- alternatively look for fast reversal of a large breakout bar as a strong warning sign.
- last long trade was profitable but I lost money here.

Today I lost money in a rather stupid way. My first long trade was a whipsaw... this is fine as whipsaws are a part of the game and you are prepared for this. But the second long trade should have ended in fantastic profit but I exited at a tiny loss. Funnily the SL did not get triggered at all but I guess looking at the volatility I was motivated to exit around 2.30 simply because of the big red bar. The subsequent overlapping bars did not generate confidence to re-enter.

The funny part is my fast exit in long trade limited my losses while the same rule prevented me from running the profitable trade till the end. But if I had simply kept the SL using swing method then the first trade would have given a large loss which would have been recovered in the second long trade.

Fortunately my position size was small (300) so losses were managable and under 10K.


Regulating the index providers

MUMBAI: Regulator Sebi will soon put in place new norms for changes in constituents of the key stock market indices, including Sensex and Nifty, as it frames a separate mechanism for regulating the index providers.

Read more here

April 6, 2015

Market outlook

- relief rally continues
- no evidence of any lower high lower low formation
- advance decline positive
- option writing support at 8400 resistance 9000
- watch for first signs of weakness if today's low breaks in 1-2 days


NIFTY futures intraday chart

- previous trend from last week was up
- first bar of the day had bearish implications
- but there was no break of any swing low nor support at 8605
- first buy signal around 10.20 am but this can be ignored
- second buy signal around 1 pm.. this was tradable only because of good support at 8605 F
- trailing SL increased to 8650 and then 8670 F


In contrast to nifty, bank nifty futures did not cross the first bar high.


April 5, 2015

Managing fatigue and trading

Question:

I feel its right time to get some guidance from you relevant to discipline on trading hours. Kindly throw some light on these areas.

By what time you are settling up your terminals and sitting in front of them to start trading. How focused one should be for the whole trading hours. How will you manage lunch time. From morning to 3.30 pm how you are keeping yourself focused to look at charts.

Coz around 11.30 I'm feeling fatique by 1 I'm feeling hungry or bored of looking at charts and leaving the terminal with no idea.

These kind of discipline oriented habits, I wanted to learn from your ideas. If you are free, make a post, that would be very helpful to traders who follow your posts or kindly reply me.

Albert Rajkumar

April 4, 2015

Stock trading at this year's highs

Although nifty is trading off the year's highs, there are many stocks trading at this year's highs... in fact some stocks are strongly bullish and trading at lifetime highs. These are some charts...

BEML


April 1, 2015

NIFTY weekly charts

- this was a short 3 day week and last trading day for the week
- we are seeing lower trendline providing support
- markets being oversold at current level also helped this pullback.
- sustaining above weekly high important next week


NIFTY futures intraday charts

- trading range defined in first 3-4 hours
- nifty breakout bullish as shown by arrows
- note buy signal at second arrow is suspect because of upper tail in candlestick
- trailing SL as shown by small green lines


Market outlook

- markets continue technical pullback or relief rally
- higher high higher low for 3rd consecutive day
- advance decline negative
- today is last trading day of the week
- resistance at 8670 spot
- closing at day's high inspite of 4 day weekend implies more bullishness next week
- today's low important support for next week.




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